This is a FanPost written by Don52
With the first wave of free agency over I wanted to take a moment to revisit Buffalo’s selections and study the organizational depth. Prior to the draft, I wrote a post about how I thought (and was hoping) Buffalo would attack this year’s draft.
To my delight, Buffalo used all 8 of their selections and bolstered one of the NHL’s best systems. In fact, you could easily argue they are the top system in the NHL heading into the season after a very strong draft.
Who Buffalo Added
The first round couldn’t have worked out much better for Buffalo. Zach Benson was considered a top 10 prospect by nearly every scouting outlet in a very deep draft. For me personally, he was the 6th ranked player behind Berdard, Fantilli, Mitchcov, Carlsson, and Smith.
Any way you look at it, getting a prospect with his playmaking ability and two way ability just doesn’t happen at pick 13 in the draft. Benson will have to continue to fill out his frame before making the jump to the NHL. But he has all the traits you look for in a forward who can make contributions early in his career. In my opinion, he needs one more year in juniors and then will be a Sabre the following season.
Another item I hoped Buffalo would address entering the draft was some diversity to the prospect pool. My personal philosophy is you don’t address needs with your first couple of picks (dependent on draft and pick location). After that, it gets harder to separate players and need should play a factor.
With the way the board was looking going into day 2 I thought there was a decent chance Kevyn Adams would grab another smaller skilled forward and in the process giving half the fanbase a heart attack.
Instead Buffalo added Anton Wahlberg and Maxim Strbak, adding size and different skills to the prospect pool. Buffalo getting Wahlberg at 39 is a good value pick that also addresses a need. Buffalo has plenty of forwards but lacks guys who project to play up and down the lineup. Wahlberg is a bit of a late riser in this years draft and will most likely have a future on the wing. But also brings a different skill set to the prospect pool with his size, strength, and ability to play close to the net.
If Buffalo was able to successfully trade back into round 1 and take him, I would have questioned the value. But in round 2 they add a player who is already pretty physically mature and has traits that translate well to the AHL/NHL. I expect we’ll see him in Rochester a year from now playing in a top 9 role.
Taking Strbak at 45 addressed Buffalo’s biggest need in the pipeline. Buffalo desperately needed to add a right handed defenseman to the prospect pool and found that in Strbak. Strbak also adds size and a physical presence on the back end as well. Offensively he’s pretty limited despite having a very heavy shot and being a good skater.
He’s comfortable with the puck but will likely not be a high point producer. Strbak is very responsible in his own end and projects as a defensive defenseman once he reaches the NHL. Like Whalberg, Strbak is more physically mature then most prospects and will get bigger quickly in a college weight program. I believe Strbak will play two years at Michigan State before Buffalo brings him over to Rochester.
In rounds 3 through 7 I thought Buffalo hit it out of the park as well. McCarthy was a great find in Round 3. His value matched the slot, he filled a big need in the pipeline being a right handed defenseman, and has a great development path.
Miedema was maybe their best value pick outside of Benson. At 6’4 and 200 plus pounds he already has a physically mature frame and a lot of skill to go with it. His production hasn’t matched the skill yet which is why he was available in Round 4. If he can put it all together Buffalo could have found a gem in the middle of the draft.
Prior to the draft I wrote about the importance of adding another goalie to the pipeline, Buffalo was able to do that with Ratzlaff in Round 5. Following the run on goalies at the start of the second it didn’t look like Buffalo would be able to add a goalie this year without reaching. I believe Ratzlaff was another example of where Adams was able to address a need without taking a big reach.
To close out the draft Buffalo took Sean Keohane and Norwin Panocha on defense. I don’t know a lot about either player, but I did like that Buffalo took late round chances at a position of need who can develop for at least 3 years before they have to decide on giving either of them an ELC.
In my pre draft post I wrote how I hoped Buffalo would deviate from their board slightly to fill some organizational needs when they got past their first couple of picks. The last several years Buffalo hasn’t done that and it led to any extremely lopsided system.
Jerry Forton admitted in his post draft press conference they had some players rated closely together when they picked but gave a slight edge to need based on what their system looked like. This may have started at pick 45 with Strbak, if not I believe it started in the third round with McCarthy.
To be clear, that doesn’t mean I think Buffalo took a big reach on either player. Rather, they prioritized their board to take some defenseman, even if there was a forward that had an even grade or maybe even a slightly higher grade. The result was a draft class that compliments their current prospect pool very well.
On top of that, I believe Buffalo did a great job of prioritizing the correct traits. Size is great, but doesn’t mean much of anything if the player can’t skate. It’s also worthless if they don’t have puck skills or hockey sense. A perfect example of this is comparing what Buffalo targeted on defense to what the Detroit Red Wings targeted on defense day 2. Both teams wanted to get bigger and both valued adding more defense to their prospect pool. Buffalo added Strbak and McCarthy who both possess size, skating, and puck skills. Where Detroit took Andrew Gibson right before Buffalo, a player who has size and can skate but has very little puck skills and the hockey sense is a question mark. And then they took Brady Cleveland, who tries to hit everything that moves. But is a poor skater, has poor puck skills, and poor hockey sense. In Detroit’s defense (no pun intended), they did add Sandin-Pelika who in Round 1 who’s much better in those areas. But overall didn’t prioritize traits that translate to today’s game.
Like anyone else who pays attention to the draft, I could name a player or two I would have rather seen Buffalo target at certain spots. With that being said, I still am giving them a draft grade of an A because they added depth to areas of weakness without making big reaches. They added size while still adding players who can skate, have hockey sense, and puck skills. And also added a player who may enter the season as their top prospect.
Pipeline Post Draft
As I mentioned at the beginning of the post, I believe Buffalo has the best system in hockey entering the season. They’re top 7 prospects Benson, Levi, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Johnson, Ostlund would be a top 5 prospect in almost every system in the NHL.
On top of that, they have incredible depth and skill at the forward position that surpasses any other team in the league. Defensively they added depth, skill and size and is now a group that has high upside entering the season. And as of today, they have one of the top goalie prospects in the league while having two others to develop.
Once we enter the season players like Levi, Savoie, and Kulich could lose their prospect status depending on how many games they get in Buffalo. Until then, I believe it’s the most talented and deepest group of prospects in the NHL.
At forward, I could write an entire article on just how good this group is. The group is now headlined by Benson for reasons I mentioned above. I also believe he’s the Sabres top prospect, although I’d have a hard time arguing with anyone who said it’s Devon Levi. Benson jumping to the top prospect is in no way an indictment on Savoie or Kulich who had very good post draft years and now have a chance to make the Sabres roster.
Both Savoie and Kulich have still shown they have the potential to be top 6 forwards in the NHL and part of the Sabres core in the coming years. Former first round picks Rosen and Ostlund have not exploded like other high picks have in recent years. But are still developing well and look like future NHL players.
Other prospects like Kisakov, Poltapov, Neuchev, and Rousek are all recent picks who have played well since being drafted and add to the embarrassment of riches Buffalo has added up front the last few years. For this upcoming season it will be interesting to see if recent draft picks such as Stiven Sardarian, Jake Richard, Oliver Nadeau or the newly acquired picks of Wahlberg and Miedema can have strong seasons and start to make some noise within the organization as well.
A year ago the Buffalo pipeline was incredibly thin at defense. They had only drafted 5 defenseman over the past three drafts, none were under contract. On top of that, two of their better prospects were not guaranteed to be signing with the Sabres. Ryan Johnson was a risk to leave as a free agent and Nikita Novikov fell in the draft because of concerns on whether he’d leave Russia or not.
Today, things are in a far better place. Not only was Buffalo able to sign Novikov and Johnson, they also signed Vsevold Komarov after having a strong D+1 year. Then they nearly doubled their prospect pool on defense taking four in this year’s draft. Buffalo now has a respectable group of defense prospects coming through the system the next several years.
Ryan Johnson could make his debut this year depending on what injuries happen with the big club and if Buffalo moves one of their nine NHL defenseman. Novikov is probably the closest to making his debut after Johnson, but will need a full year in the AHL before that becomes a possibility.
The rest of the group will likely have to wait at least three years before the possibility of NHL time. Buffalo should still look to add here in the coming year. But they are in a way better position now then they were a year ago.
In net Buffalo will have a below average group once Levi loses his prospect status. The good news is with Levi and UPL Buffalo has two young goalies who could be with the Sabres for several years. The bad news is it could be several years before Buffalo has a goalie making a case to play in Rochester.
Topias Leinonen did not have a good D+1 year and needs to have a rebound season this year. If he has another year like last one, Buffalo may need to look at investing another high pick on a goalie next year. Ratzlaff was a good add in Round 5 and can maybe up his stock with a strong year in the WHL. But as it stands now, Buffalo will most likely need to add more depth in the coming drafts.
Likely Moves in The Next Couple Years
There was lots of concern leading up to the draft, during the draft, and after the draft about the size of Buffalo’s prospects at forward. Not just by fans on DBTB, Corey Prounman of the athletic gave Buffalo a lower grade in Round 1 then they deserved just because Benson looked like other high picks they’ve had up front.
Now, I’ve been an advocate for Buffalo to look at some needs once you get past the first couple picks. But passing on someone who’s sticking out on your board because he looks similar to past picks is absolutely crazy to me. Giving a low draft grade for taking a player almost universally ranked higher than your slot is even crazier, but I digress.
Yes, it would have been great to add at least one defenseman in the first round last year with one of your three picks. But do you pass on Kulich just to check the box? Do you pass on Benson this year to take the 4th defenseman? Truthfully, I think Buffalo expected to take a defenseman in round one this year after listening to Jerry Forton before the draft and after the draft. It sounded like Buffalo expected Benson to be gone and one of the three defenseman to be available when it was their turn to pick. But, things happen and I believe they did so in Buffalo’s favor.
As it stands now, Buffalo does not have the roster space and someone will need to be moved whether its prospects or a player currently in their top 6. Thompson, Tuch, and Cozens are my only three locks to be here for the long term up front. Skinner has been great and I’m sure Buffalo doesn’t have plans to move him in the near future.
One, because he’s been playing at a high level. Two, because teams don’t have the cap space to take on a 9 million dollar hit. However, in a couple years if the cap rises and some of the prospects have turned into top 6 guys I could see him moved. Peterka and Quinn have had promising starts to their career but are not untouchable players yet.
Mittelstadt had a great year but still could be moved. Or any of the recent high picks could be dealt as well. Only one thing is for sure, not all can play in Buffalo and someone will eventually be traded. Whenever the trade occurs it will be made to balance out the organizational depth. While I was thrilled with Clifton signing and like the Johnson signing I don’t believe those were moves made to solidify the defense core for the next several years.
I believe Kevyn Adams is looking for younger defenseman similar in age to Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsoon to solidify his defense core. I don’t think he wants to trade for someone like Pesce, who is 28 and then will command a 7 or 8 year deal with a high cap hit and has an injury history. Instead, I think he’ll save his prospects for someone with contract control and is similar in age to the rest of his core.
I don’t believe a trade for a goalie involving top prospects is likely any time soon. If Levi and UPL have poor years this upcoming season, then the chances go up. But the goalie market has been crazy each of the past couple years and I don’t see Adams moving valuable assets to acquire a vet goalie while he has two young players he likes. I wouldn’t rule out a prospect trade although I think that is not a likely option. Defenseman value is as high now as I can ever recall, even more so if it’s a righty.
On top of that hockey GM’s are notorious for over valuing their prospects which makes me believe a prospect trade would be very hard to pull off. Which means the short term patience will be the key. Buffalo has a deep NHL roster and a deep prospect pool. Both of which could lead to the playoff drought ending this year. In the next couple years I believe a player will be made available that makes sense for Buffalo to go after. And when it happens they’ll be more equipped than any team in the league to make a serious trade offer for him.