This is a FanPost written by Matt in Cleveland
The Buffalo Sabres came into the offseason with two major glaring holes to most fans: defense and goaltending. The team made it very clear and well known that they were on the hunt for a top-four defenseman, while goaltending was more of a secondary need. By secondary need, I mean more in the sense of, lets make an inquiry, do our homework, and see if something makes senses for an upgrade.
As it turns out, that opportunity never came around that made sense. As a result, they are rolling the dice, that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi will improve, develop, and be solid options behind a reinforced defense. With the additions of Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson this offseason, the Buffalo Sabres bolstered that defense. However, I do believe there is some concern from some people, that the Sabres did not do enough this offseason. This is assuming the Sabres are close to done for their offseason shopping, and I do believe that they are. So, did the Sabres really do enough?
Defensive Reinforcements
I’m going to spend the most time talking about the defense since this was where the most help was needed. When the Sabres signed Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson, the first thing that came to mind was what happens to Henri Jokiharju and Ilya Lyubushkin? How do the Sabres navigate a crowded blue line?
First and foremost, the Sabres having a crowded blueline is a good thing, because it wasn’t a luxury that they had last season, and it cost them. The Sabres were 33-18-4 when Mattias Samuelsson was healthy. That’s a record that really should be focused on heavily, because Kevyn Adams and his team certainly did. Between 10/25 and 11/19 of last season, when the team went 3-10 in that stretch, it is not a coincidence that both Jokiharju and Samuelsson missed the majority of those games early in the season. A lot of those minutes with both players out, went to the likes of Jacob Bryson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Kale Clague, and Lawrence Pilut. Both Power and Dahlin also saw their minutes go up even more in that stretch to try and carry the load.
Not having Samuelsson, and even Jokiharju, as much as many fans love to scrutinize him, meant that you had to increase the work on Power and Dahlin, and give more minutes to less favorable options. Even when Jokiharju was healthy, he still left a lot to be desired for at times. Lyubushkin battled injuries at times, and didn’t seem to make the same impact as he did in Toronto, but he was still solid in a third-pair role last season in limited minutes.
Now you add both Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson to the mix. While Johnson saw his minutes get scaled back in Colorado to around 17 minutes per night, his most frequent partners last year were Samuel Girard (328 mins), and Devin Toews (152 mins). Connor Clifton played mostly with Derek Forbort (523 mins), Hampus Lindholm (277 mins), and Matt Grzelcyk (217), bouncing up and down the lineup. Both guys are capable of playing 20 minutes per night if the team needs them to do so.
I think there are some who believe that Clifton is the default right-handed defenseman next to Power, but my gut says, that the Sabres will likely platoon both Johnson and Clifton in the top-four, and figure out what works and what doesn’t. I do think they want to give Clifton his opportunities, but I also would not be shocked if they like the saavy veteran in Johnson, mentoring Power as a partner from time to time. I think both guys will see substantial time with Power.
The bottom four gets very interesting. With Power, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Clifton and Johnson here, that leaves an interesting battle: Ilya Lyubushkin vs Henri Jokiharju. Clifton and Johnson I suspect will bounce from the second to third pair, but who will they play with when they are in that spot, and everyone is healthy?
Jokiharju could actually be more of a winner here than people realize. For the first time in his Sabres career, he will likely have some defense partners who can offer him some stability, whereas in the past, Jokiharju has often had to be the stabilizing presence by default. What’s interesting here is that Jokiharju has some experience on the left-side, and he’s said in the past that he’s comfortable there. Plus you factor in the fact that he’s played the 20 minute-per-night role since Don Granato has taken over, and thus, brings quite a bit of value and experience in that regard.
You may not want the Joker in a top-four role every night, but he is yet another guy that you can use in that role if needed. Injuries have been a problem for Jokiharju in the past, but, a lesser role, less pressure, and a more potentially more stabilizing presence for a partner should help.
I do believe the team will keep eight defenseman next season. Ilya Lybushkin will likely be the seventh defenseman for me. Riley Stillman will be the eighth. That doesn’t mean that Lyubushkin won’t play, as there will be injuries and he will get plenty of opportunities. I expect Ryan Johnson to get a call-up if he performs well in Rochester and the injury bug hits. While it might make more sense to trade a defenseman, having the depth is a huge asset, and it’s a luxury the forward group luckily has with Jack Quinn now being injured.
No Forward Reinforcements to Replace Quinn, and Does Olofsson Stay?
The next logical move for the Sabres, would have been to move Victor Olofsson, however, the achilles injury to Jack Quinn may have put a delay on that plan.There are no forward reinforcements coming with Jack Quinn being out, however, the Sabres shouldn’t need any.
The Sabres were third in the league in scoring, and scoring was not the problem last season. While Jack Quinn may have been poised to take a step into that 20+ goal range, his 14 goal production from last year should be able to be replaced for the first couple months of the season.
How do the Sabres accomplish this? The answer is Casey Mittelstadt. While I love the idea of keeping Mittelstadt with Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch, you can also keep Tage Thompson on that line, and simply place Casey Mittelstadt on the kid line with Dylan Cozens and J.J Peterka. Both Mittelstadt and Cozens have the ability to play center and wing. This would allow for Peyton Krebs to move up to third line center, and potentially play on a third line with Jordan Greenway and Kyle Okposo in a more hard to play against, defensive orientated line.
Another option could be placing Greenway with Thompson and Cozens, which was a line that looked good in a small sample size late last season. If Thompson is fully healthy, that line could be a physical handful for a lot of teams. This would allow for Peterka to move to a line with Krebs and possibly Okposo, instead of Greenway, to give that line a little more offensive punch and skill.
Victor Olofsson would probably be best reserved in a sheltered role in the bottom six, with power play minutes. Olofsson still is a 28 goal scorer on an offensively potent team, and not all those goals are meaningless contrary to popular belief. Both Victor Olofsson and Tage Thompson over the past two seasons have the most game winning goals on the team, with 11. Olofsson simply knows how to put the puck in the net. If Olofsson is gone before the season starts, then it’s a golden opportunity for Jiri Kulich and Lukas Rousek. The Sabres should be more than ok at forward.
What’s Next
Barring a trade, it is very difficult to project what the Sabres will do to round out their 23-man roster. Do they want to carry eight defenseman, 13 forwards, or three goalies? Something has to give in that regard. It should be noted too that Rousek has a two-way deal this year, and a one-way deal next year. as per Amerks.com.
I don’t believe the team would want to lose Eric Comrie, and I don’t believe he will clear waivers. However, having Dustin Tokarski back is interesting, because he could serve as that third goaltender in a pinch, but I do think they like Comrie enough to keep him around.
I also believe they value having the defensive depth this year. It doesn’t make sense to me to trade Henri Jokiharju because of he’s a guy who has played a bigger minutes before on this team, even though it’s not an idea role for him. Jokiharju is also still just 24-years old, and has two years of some team control with arbitration eligibility next summer. Lyubushkin is 29, and will be a UFA again, next year. Maybe Riley Stillman gets waived, but I think they like what he brought to the table last year, and I think they like his physical edge. They also gave up an asset for him, granted not much, but it’s an asset.
Real playoff teams are always looking to add defensemen. The Bruins added Dmitry Orlov at the deadline, and the Maple Leafs added Erik Gustafsson and Luke Schenn. The Sabres defense looks crowded now, but when injuries hit, it’s a good problem to have. The lack of defensive depth last season, cost us the playoffs, not so much goaltending, although the concern is valid.
The Sabres are taking a gamble, and they are trusting their process with Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Eric Comrie will also be here. Neither goaltenders has played more than 50 games in their career, whereas Craig Anderson had over 700 games of experience, and that will be missed. There could still also be a trade, but for now, I think the team is likes what they have, and hopes that their new defensive depth is enough to get them into the playoffs.
No matter what happens, get ready for some “Cliffy Hockey” baby.