This is a FanPost written by T. McGee.
DBTB –
I think it’s fair to say that everyone would agree that this has been a disappointing season for the Sabres. The abundance of young talent, of impressive statistics and more on the way, seemed to point to the end of the playoff drought and perhaps even more going into 2023-24. All the trendlines pointed up. But as kids tend to be, growth happened to be uneven. Injuries starting as far back as this summer have plagued the team – not always major injuries, but the nagging kind that made establishing consistency and chemistry, already difficult with so many young players, all but impossible as players cycled through the lineup after missing 3-4-5 games. Expectations, big contracts, changes to their system, young goaltending all conspired to set this team back at different times. So now what?
I think the Sabres can still put up 80+ points this season. It won’t be easy, and it will require hard work, discipline and a little luck. But as the playoffs get further and further into the rearview mirror, you have to start to look at the off-season. And Kevyn Adams will face a challenge like he has not had to face before. Remember, since the end of Wreck-It Ralph Krueger and the ‘flat management’ system he tried to put in place, Adams has presided over a pro-rated 56 point season, then 75, and last season 91. That’s year-over-year improvement, every year, over the course of 3 years. With depth on D, down the middle at C, and with young goaltending, there wasn’t really any good reason to think that this team would go backwards. Even IF some of the players took a step back, there were other young players who could make a jump forward and neutralize any regression. I believed they would put up 99 points this season. Optimistic, looking back.
But they are young. The youngest in the NHL. And right now, 9 of the 10 youngest teams in the NHL are out of the playoff picture (the 10th is Vegas, who have 5 veteran players injured and have temporarily replaced them with kids). And young teams are inconsistent. Just like this team. So the question is, do we throw the baby out with the bathwater? Let’s look at what might be done.
OUT: Olofsson, Jost, Girgensons, Robinson, E Johnson, Comrie. That’s a grand total of $18.5M off the books. That leaves us with $57.5M against the Cap. But there’s more.
RFAs: Mittlestadt, Krebs, Joker, Luukkonen, Bryson, and Stillman. So I’m not going to make Bryson a Qualifying Offer, letting him go find work wherever he can. Stillman I make a 2-way offer. Krebs has a grand total of 7P in 40 games as I type this. While I’ve liked his game over the past 15-20 games, that projects to around 17P for the season. I can likely get him for a very cheap bridge deal. He’s an RFA so he’s kind of stuck.
KREBS: 2 years @ $1.4M.
Luukkonen, if you project him out over a full season, has very similar numbers as last season. But his GAA and the like are markedly better against the PP. So that’s a positive sign. And he wins games. But is he a #2, or a #1? No one knows yet. He seems like a player who would really benefit with a disciplined team in front of him…sort of like Georgiyev in Colorado. I’m going to try to keep him around. One Comp I found is Karel Vejmelka in Arizona. He was a little older, but his numbers aren’t that different and he plays in front of a similar team.
UPL: 3 years @ $2.85M.
Now it gets tricky. Mitts and Joker are both due to get raises. In Mitts’ case, a BIG one. On pace for 70P. One year before he hits UFA. Likewise, Joker has 1 year before he hits UFA, he’s a right-shot, good skating D-Man who will be 4 years younger than Clifton. I’m thinking he winds up around $3.5-4M depending on term. But I’ve got Ryan Johnson, I’ve got Novikov, Komarov, Strbak, and McCarthy coming up. So we’re going to set Joker aside. As for Mitts, he might need to get moved, but he’s becoming more integral to the team by the game. He’s going to cost a pretty penny if he stays at his current pace and puts up around 70P. The best Comp I’ve found for him when you look at production, age, contract status, and position is someone like Pierre Luc Dubois, who got 8 years at $8.5M. I can’t afford that much, but right now Casey’s a Top 6 center who’s gonna get paid. Maybe I can entice him with continuing with his buddy Dahlin and building something in BFLO. So here’s what I’m going to do…
MITTS: 6 years @ $7.45M.
Now, onto the UFAs. I’d like to bring back Eric Robinson. He’s quick, he’s heavy, and plays a simple game. He doesn’t need to be in my Top 12, but he could be. If he’ll do it, I’m going to re-up him on a 1 year deal.
ROBINSON: 1 year @ $1.45M.
Next, I’m going outside the organization. The Sabres could use another player like Robinson. This is a player I wanted them to go after last off-season, but he (like Tyler Toffoli, who I also wanted) went to New Jersey. Unfortunately for him, he’s been hurt for nearly the entire year thus far. Sorry to be cynical, but that should let me get him for pretty cheap. He’s a 4C, got some size, plays a linear game and is good in the dot.
TOMAS NOSEK: 1 year @ $900K.
Lastly, for depth purposes, I’m bringing in a McGee-favorite, right-shot defenseman Jordan Oesterle. He can play either side, he’s a smart, unexciting defender who has played almost 350 NHL games for a few different teams. Perfect #7 guy who’s seen a lot in this League.
JORDAN OESTERLE: 1 year @ $825K.
OK, so I’m loaded up. Now, I need to make some tweaks to my roster. First, I’m going to make a trade. No, it’s not a blockbuster deal. It’s a medium-deal that inevitably some fans will bemoan. But it’s a need.
TRADE: BFLO JJ PETERKA, MAXIM STRBAK -> CHI CONNOR MURPHY
The Sabres add a big, physical, reliable right-shot defender who wears a letter in Chicago. He’s not going to break the bank (2 more years @ $4.4M) but he gives Owen Power a player with size and physicality to ride with. Yes, Murphy has a modified No-Trade, but given how long things will likely take to turn around in Chicago, and the perception that the Sabres are close to breaking through, I think you can sell him on that. Chicago gets a young defensive prospect who, geographically, isn’t far for them to go – he’s playing in the Big 10 – and an explosive wing who could score 35 playing with Bedard. He’s also tight with Lukas Reichel, a fellow German, so that should help him acclimate. But Adams is not quite done.
TRADE: BFLO HENRI JOKIHARJU, ALEXANDER KISAKOV -> SJS NICO STURM, 2024 4th round
The Sabres add a big 4C who has size (6’3 210#), defensive acumen, and is a Top 20 face-off guy. Yes, they only have him for a year before he goes to FA, so they should look at signing him to a 1-2 year extension as soon as the deal’s done…but they only have Joker for a year before he goes to UFA as well. So it’s a pretty solid deal for BFLO. San Jose has very little coming on defense. Joker immediately becomes their #3 on the back-end, and if they can lock him up for a few years, probably is on the top pair if they can move on from Vlasic. Kisakov is a talent but trying to gain size and frequent injuries have slowed his development. The Sabres can afford to move on from him.
THE ROSTER: CAP $84.75M (CAP Ceiling projected as $87.5M)
Greenway – Mitts – Benson
Skinner – Tage – Quinn
Krebs – Cozens – Tuch
Rosen – Sturm – Robinson
Nosek – Rousek
Dahlin – Sammy
Power – Murphy
Ry Jo – Clifton
Oesterle
UPL – Levi
ROCHESTER:
Kulich – Savoie – Mersch
Warren – Ostlund – Neuchev
Giroux – Kozak – Nadeau
Fiddler-Schultz – Jobst – Marjala
Novikov – Stillman
Clague – Komarov
Mehtsa – Cecconi
Laaouan
Cooley – Suchanek