This is a FanPost written by BuffaloBuckeye.
Yet another year of the drought, and this one was one of the worst, if not the worst. Great expectations were shattered by injuries, slow starts (both to individual games and the season as a whole), and atrocious assistant coaches. Now, with almost as many picks and prospects compiled as losses, it’s time for the Sabres to learn from their mistakes last summer and make several moves to end the drought for good. And what better place to start the turnaround than . . .
DRAFT DAY
The Sabres are up somewhere between pick 9-12. Before Gary Bettman can finish walking out on stage, The Sphere (yes, that’s where they’re holding the draft) lights up and announces A TRADE:
To BUF: RHD Rasmus Andersson, 2024 1st (VAN)
To CAL: C Peyton Krebs, W Isak Rosen, 2024 1st (BUF)
The Sabres suffered from lack of top 4 defensemen last season, especially before the Byram trade. There’s an argument that they still need one now, as I don’t trust Samuelsson to stay healthy, nor do I totally trust him with the puck. I trust Andersson on both counts. With his addition, it’s my belief that the Sabres will have one elite defenseman and three top-pairing defensemen next season. It also moves Samuelsson to the 3rd pairing, which he’s overqualified for.
As for Calgary, they’re in a rebuild and Andersson’s contract will be up by the time they’re competitive again. Krebs and Rosen are both very much on their timeline, plus jumping 10-20 picks in the draft (depending how the Canucks do in the postseason) is very valuable, being worth a mid-to-late first on its own. I’d be open to extra picks going one way or the other depending on how big the jump between the Sabres’ and Canucks’ picks is.
The Sabres then choose the best C and RHD available in the first two rounds. Before their third round pick, The Sphere announces another trade:
To BUF: C/RW Mikael Granlund, 2025 5th (SJ)
To SJ: LHD Jacob Bryson, 2025 2nd (BUF), 2024 3rd (BUF)
The first of two moves to upgrade the Sabres down the middle.
The Sabres get an upgrade on offense. Granlund has put up just about .8 ppg playing top minutes on a dreadful team. While his role certainly won’t be as large with the Sabres, his skill with the puck, especially on the power play, where he has 19 assists, will be a huge asset. He’s also been a positive possession player relative to his teammates at 5-on-5, which is particularly impressive given the matchups he’s had to deal with.
The Sharks are horrendous and need all the decent picks they can get, especially after trading a few mid-rounders away in the Hertl and Thrun deals. Despite his aforementioned performance this season, Granlund’s an expensive rental at $5 million. That, combined with the Sharks using all of their salary retention slots, means that Granlund can be had for less than a 1st. Also, Jacob Bryson showed some real signs of life this season, which is more than can be said for most of the Sharks’ defensemen.
OFF-SEASON TRADING
To BUF: C Noah Cates, RHD Carter Sotheran
To PHI: RHD Henri Jokiharju
Noah Cates gets the change of scenery that his offense (but not the rest of his play) needed after a tough season where his point totals have been cut in half. Still, Cates was a net positive in possession relative to his teammates on top of being a very good penalty killer. His offense should rebound playing in a more attacking system and with his teammates’ shooting percentage progressing to the mean, as it was under 7% in Philly this year. While Cates is initially slotted in at 4C for the 2024-25 season, he could move up to 3C after Granlund’s contract expires or even earlier if Granlund shifts to wing.
Carter Sotheran is an intriguing prospect who’s added in based on Cates’ poor performance last season relative to Joker’s, plus his relatively high salary for his role. Only a 5th rounder last year, he tripled his goal production and almost doubled his point total playing in the WHL this season. He has plenty of room to add to his lanky 6’4”, 195 frame, and also has the time to do so, as he doesn’t turn 19 until June. He joins the Sabres’ 2024 1st/2nd rounder, McCarthy, Strbak, and Metsa (spoiler, I sign him to an NHL deal later in this post) as potential replacements for Andersson and Clifton in a couple years, though it’s more likely he’ll need three or four seasons of development rather than two.
The Flyers have a glut at center between Sean Couturier, Morgan Frost, Ryan Poehling, Scott Laughton (who I also considered here, but chose Cates since his 5-on-5 possession numbers are significantly better despite worse zone starts than Laughton), and Cates. As of now, they only have 2 NHL-worthy RHD on the roster next season in Risto and Jamie Drysdale. Joker fixes that and has top-four potential if he plays with a physical partner, which to me is why he does well with Dahlin and considerably worse with Power. Philly is willing to part with Sotheran due to having a fairly stocked RHD pipeline between Oliver Bonk and Ethan Sampson, among others.
FREE AGENCY
RFA’S/Entry Level
G Ukko Pekka Luukkonen, 3 years/$3.3 million AAV
UPL earns a big, but not huge, pay raise for his excellent work this season. The net is his to start next season, and hopefully for another decade after that. If not, this deal isn’t cost nor term-prohibitive and leaves the Sabres with another year of RFA control when it expires. UPL more than triples his salary and has a chance to earn a huge payday if he lives up to this deal.
LW Brandon Biro, 1 year/$900k
Biro’s consistently produced in Rochester, and flashed some good skating and instincts in a very brief Sabres cameo. He gets a chance to make the NHL squad, albeit likely as the 13th forward, where his versatility will be particularly useful. If it doesn’t work out in Buffalo, odds are he’ll clear waivers back to Rochester.
W Brett Murray, 1 year/$850k
Murray signs another qualifying offer. At this point, it’s clear he doesn’t have the skating nor the hands to be an NHL’er, but he has a valuable role as a middle-six forward for the Amerks thanks to his strength and two-way play. He’ll be a great linemate for all the young centers that’ll be in Rochester next season.
LHD Kale Clague, 1 year/$900k
Clague has been a very good soldier these past few years, jumping between the NHL and AHL, providing dependable defensive play at both levels and some offense in the AHL. There’s a good chance he’ll have the same job again in 2024-25.
RHD Zach Metsa, 2 years/$800k AAV (entry-level)
Zach Metsa has fit right in for the Amerks since he signed at the end of last season. While he is only 5’9”, he doesn’t play like it thanks to his positional sense and mentality. He also has shown some offense, with 20 points this season. While I’m not sure he’s more than an NHL/AHL tweener, he deserves the chance to prove himself.
LHD Calle Sjalin, 1 year/$875k
I believe this will more or less be Sjalin’s qualifying offer. While he wasn’t much of anything for most of this AHL season, he’s shown some promise in the few games he’s played for the Amerks. He has a year to prove that’s not a fluke, or else he’ll be replaced by the next person on this list.
LHD Mats Lindgren, 3 years/$775k AAV (entry-level)
Lindgren hasn’t set the world on fire since his draft season, but defensemen with his skating ability are worth gambling on. I view him as Ryan Johnson-lite, and given the Sabres’ depth at LHD, I’m more than fine if he ends up just being an Amerk.
UFA’S
C/RW Colin Blackwell, 2 years/$1.5 million AAV
Blackwell was one of my favorite Amerks, and I was always disappointed that he never got an NHL deal. Let’s right that wrong. He’s a very good skater and smart defensively while still bringing solid offense for his role, regardless of which position he plays. He’ll also be a regular on the penalty kill.
RHD Troy Stecher, 3 years/$1.5 million AAV
Is this a slight overpay for a #7D? Yes, but it’s by a miniscule amount, and Stecher has shown himself to be nothing but dependable in his NHL career. Also, with how often Stecher’s been traded over the last few seasons, he’ll likely want to settle down somewhere for awhile. Lastly, I am looking to the medium term with this signing. I want to have at least one proven RHD on the roster in the future when Andersson and Clifton’s contracts expire, just in case the myriad of young RHD the Sabres have isn’t quite ready yet.
LHD Dennis Gilbert, 1 year/$900k
A run-of-the-mill defenseman to play the #8D role. Not a whole lot else to say here. Decided to sign Gilbert or someone of his ilk so Ryan Johnson can play every game in the AHL instead of being in and out of an NHL lineup
C/LW Mason Jobst, 2 years/$850k AAV
Jobst has been excellent for the two seasons he’s been with the Amerks, especially this year where he leads them in scoring. While he’s undersized and not the best skater, his hands and vision more than make up for that in the AHL. He gets to stick around for a little while.
RW Tanner Laczynski, 1 year/$800k
Yes, another former Buckeye for the Amerks. If he plays half as well for the Amerks as his old OSU teammate Mason Jobst has, he’ll be a steal. He’s bigger and more of a pure shooter than Jobst, which would be perfect to play with Matt Savoie and/or Noah Ostlund.
RW Matt Luff, 1 year/$775k
Versatile, rugged forward depth for the Amerks. Think a slightly worse version of Brett Murray for the bottom six.
RHD Casey Fitzgerald, 2 years/$850k AAV
Now that it seems like Casey won’t make it in the NHL, he comes back to Rochester where he started. He’ll make an excellent mentor for all of the prospects, and is still a very good fit in any AHL team’s top four.
G Chris Driedger, 1 year/$900k
While Driedger failed to live up to his contract in Seattle, he’s still a more than capable 3rd goalie who can dominate the AHL and play 5-10 NHL games a year if needed. He gets a year to rehabilitate his reputation on what should be a very good Amerks team.
G Malcolm Subban, 2 years/$850k AAV
Another past Amerk is back in the fold. He’s shown to be a dependable AHL goalie and will also be a good mentor for Scott Ratzlaff, and possibly Topias Leinonen, when they come to Rochester next season.
OPENING NIGHT LINEUPS
Amerks
Jobst-Kulich-Neuchev
Murray-Savoie-Laczynski
Mersch(C)-Ostlund-Luff
Wahlberg-Kozak-Kisakov
Clague(A)-Johnson
Novikov-Fitzgerald(A)
Sjalin-Metsa
Dreidger
Subban
Scratches: Nadeau, Lindgren, Komarov
This forward corps is loaded. Neuchev earns a spot on the top line with his fantastic late-season form. Mason Jobst will do his best C.J. Stroud impression in finding both the snipers on his line with pinpoint passes. Savoie gets to play with a goal-scorer in Laczynski and a true power forward in Murray. Ostlund gets two rough-and-tumble linemates to start, though Kisakov could earn his way higher up the lineup. Wahlberg and Kozak should be a dynamite penalty-killing duo, and one of them will be the Sabres’ 4C of the future.
The defense should be very solid. Both youngsters have excellent mentors in Clague and Fitzgerald, while Metsa has already shown he’s overqualified for his role. Komarov and Lindgren can be worked in as needed due to injuries and/or NHL call-ups. There aren’t any pure offensive types here, but that will give the coaching staff a chance to evaluate Johnson, Novikov, Sjalin, and Metsa’s respective potential on the power play.
Goal should be more than set between these two vets, with Dreidger acting as an emergency 3rd goalie in case Levi needs more time in the AHL.
This Amerks team should once again be a contender, much like last year’s team was and this year’s team appears to be. If anything, they’ll be better than both those teams due to their depth. This may be the Amerks’ best shot at the Calder Cup for awhile, since I expect Kulich, Savoie, Johnson, and possibly Ostlund to make the Sabres in the 2025-26 season.
Sabres
Peterka-Thompson(A)-Tuch(A)
Skinner-Cozens-Quinn
Benson-Granlund-Greenway
Rousek-Cates-Blackwell
Byram-Dahlin(C)
Power-Andersson
Samuelsson-Clifton
UPL
Levi
Scratches: Biro, Stecher, Gilbert
Cap Hit: $86.4/$87.7 million
The top line showed how deadly it can be at the end of this season, especially with a healthy Tage. I was dead-wrong about Peterka, and am more than thrilled to admit it. Skinner and Cozens get a chance for a rebound season after a pretty tough year, but both could end up on the 3rd line if Granlund and Benson earn more playing time. Speaking of Granlund and Benson, their line should dominate possession, plus it’ll be hilarious to see Greenway and Benson stand next to each other on the ice. I’d be happy to retain Greenway beyond next season, albeit preferably for a bit less than his current $3 million salary. With how Benson’s progressed, I think he gets somewhere between 40-50 points next year. The fourth line should be excellent defensively, with Cates and Blackwell hopefully chipping in 10-12 goals each as well.
While the forward corps is definitely deeper than last year, the real strength of the team is the defense. As I mentioned earlier, this version of the Sabres has one elite defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin, and three more top-pairing-level players in Byram, Power, and Andersson. The third pair of Samuelsson and Clifton should be one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL. While it’s great to know that Dahlin can go for 25 minutes almost every game, this defense corps should render that unnecessary most nights. In fact, against lousy opponents (read: San Jose, Chicago, etc.) or in blowouts, I’d be all in favor of splitting the minutes evenly.
As for the net, the Sabres are lucky enough to have two very good young goalies. I think that the playoffs in Rochester will give Levi the experience he needs to be a full-time NHL’er next year. If not, Driedger can play a few games as needed. I feel damn good about UPL being the primary ‘keeper.
While goals #1-99 are ending the drought, I did want to mention the future. The cap is a concern, but Granlund’s $5 million coming off the books next year helps a lot. I also plan on buying out Skinner to save another $6 million or so, plus another expected $4 million cap increase. That would give $15 million to extend Byram, Peterka, Quinn, Cates, Levi, and Johnson. It would be close, but doable. If needed, I would let Greenway go altogether, as well as trading Samuelsson, if that’s possible given his contract, to add another combined $7 million or so in space.
There’s definitely enough room for two forward prospects in the 2025-26 season, likely Kulich and Savoie, as well as there possibly being room for one of Poltapov/Ostlund/Neuchev. The defense corps will be mostly set, with the only question being whether Samuelsson or Johnson is the #3 LHD. The net should also hopefully be set for at least the medium, if not the long, term with UPL and Levi.
Is this team good enough to make the playoffs next year, and hopefully for the foreseeable future after that? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.