This post was written by Die By The Blade member T. McGee. Thanks, T!
DBTBers –
Hello, my fellow DBTB’ers! We are well and truly underway for the 2024 Draft Year. We’re truly into the Draft year and we’ve got players rising, players falling, and some players too banged up to do either. So let’s dig into it.
This is a good draft, one that is growing on me. Some players I was skeptical of have really shown out so far. There’s some good talent at the top, but no one who’s a surefire franchise player, so that kind of lowers the overall expectations for this class. But its depth is starting to show. It’s getting tougher to put all of the players I consider 1st rounders into the 1st round, because there are just too many. So the early 2nd could have some very nice players spilling over from Day One. We’ll see if it, and the talented kids who are showing out, can continue.
This year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more defenders go in the 1st – maybe 12-15 in total. Which is unusual – typically, half the 1st round is not made up of defensemen. But this draft class has more, and more varied, talented blueliners that could challenge for the Top 20. Right now, I’ve got almost half of my Top 20 as defenders. That’s remarkable. And there are several guys with good size, good mobility, some are defense-only, others are puck wizards who can make plays up the ice, there are thumpers and players who can evade contact and carry the puck. Typically I would say that the defenders are the most typical position group that would slide into the early 2nd round, but as depth on the back-end is becoming so precious, snapping up a defender early would be a prudent move. Especially if you don’t have a lot of young depth at the position.
There have been some notable surprises thus far. First, in injury news, both Ivan Demidov and Aron Kiviharju have missed extended periods. These two came into the season as consensus Top 15 caliber players, so losing them for a while is a tough break not only for prospect watchers, but for the kids. Here’s hoping they both get healthy soon and keep their dreams alive!
While the early days of the Draft Season seemed to focus on the kids playing in the US, particularly in the NCAA and the USHL, but recent weeks have seen the WHL really start to see some of their young talent shine. Cayden Lindstrom, a 6’5 center, has exploded for 32P in 24 games; big defenseman Carter Yakemchuk is over a PPG (24P in 22 games); Tij Iginla is nearly a goal-per-game (19G in 24 games) and Terik Peraschak has come out of nowhere to dazzle with 34P in 23 games. Other players who are climbing the ladder include forwards like Andrew Basha, Miguel Marques, and Adam Jecho while defenders like Nate Misskey, Charlie Elick and Tarin Smith have stood out. So it’s shaping up to be a pretty strong year again for the WHL.
In the US, we’ve talked about #1 overall favorite Macklin Celebrini and potential top D-Man Artyom Levshunov in the NCAA, but another stellar performance is coming from blueliner Zeev Buium, younger brother of Red Wings prospect Shai. He’s managed to put up 18P in 14 games from the back-end on a very good Denver squad. He could easily be the 3rd NCAA freshman to be chosen in the Top 10 if this keeps up.
Across the pond in Sweden, a half-dozen or so draft eligibles have already made their debut in the SHL, the top Men’s league in Sweden. Among them Czech defender Dominik Badinka (a McGee favorite), big center Simon Zether, and slick forward Oskar Vuollet. At the U-20 level, a number of kids are putting up more than a PPG: do-it-all forward Melvin Fernstrom, defender Noel Fransen, Norwegian power wing Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, and smooth centerman Lukas Pettersson are all in that group and looking great doing so.
As for our beloved Sabres, their prospect pool is so deep and balanced, they can truly swing for the fences when they select. An actual Best-Player-Available strategy makes sense. Defender, center, wing…could be any of those. It will be interesting to see what they do…or if they even have a 1st rounder when we do get to Draft Day. For this ranking, I went with the actual standings at the time of writing this, and then using Tankathon for the Lottery portion. Here’s what I came up with. Enjoy!
ROUND ONE:
#1: NASHVILLE: Macklin Celebrini, 5’11 C, NCAA
#2: EDMONTON: Sam Dickinson, 6’3 LHD, OHL
#3: SAN JOSE: Cole Eiserman, 6’0 RW, US NTDP
#4: COLUMBUS: Berkly Catton, 5’11 C/LW, WHL
#5: CHICAGO: Artyom Levshunov, 6’2 RHD, NCAA
#6: MINNESOTA: Konsta Helenius, 5’11 RW, FIN
#7: CALGARY: Anton Silyayev, 6’7 LHD, RUS
#8: SEATTLE: Ivan Demidov, 5’11 RW, RUS
#9: OTTAWA: Carter Yakemchuk, 6’2 RHD, WHL
#10: NY ISLANDERS: Zeev Buium, 6’0 LHD, NCAA
#11: MONTREAL: Zayne Parekh, 6’0 RHD, OHL
#12: BUFFALO: Cayden Lindstrom, 6’5 C, WHL
#13: CHICAGO (TAMPA BAY): Sasha Boisvert, 6’2 C, USHL
#14: PHILADELPHIA: Igor Chernyshov, 6’2 LW, RUS
#15: ARIZONA: Liam Greentree, 6’2 RW, OHL
#16: NEW JERSEY: Maxim Masse, 6’1 LW, QMJHL
#17: SAN JOSE (PITTSBURGH): Michael Hage, 6’1 C, USHL
#18: TORONTO: Lukas Fischer, 6’4 LHD, OHL
#19: CAROLINA: Michael Braddsegg-Nygard, 6’1 RW, SWE
#20: ANAHEIM: Tij Iginla, 6’0 LW, WHL
#21: WINNIPEG: Aron Kiviharju, 5’10 LHD, FIN
#22: DETROIT: Matvei Grindin, 6’1 C, USHL
#23: ST LOUIS: Adam Jiricek, 6’1 RHD, CZE
#24: WASHINGTON: Cole Hutson, 5’9 LHD, US NTDP
#25: COLORADO: Emil Hemming, 6’2 LW, FIN
#26: LOS ANGELES: Trevor Connolly, 6’1 LW, USHL
#27: PHILADELPHIA (FLORIDA): Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, 6’0 LHD, SWE
#28: VANCOUVER: Karl Sterner, 6’3 RW, SWE
#29: DALLAS: Matvei Shuravin, 6’3 LHD, RUS
#30: NY RANGERS: Terik Paraschak, 5’11 RW, WHL
#31: VEGAS: Beckett Sennecke, 6’2 RW, OHL
#32: OTTAWA (BOSTON): Simon Zether, 6’3 C, SWE
ROUND TWO:
#1: SAN JOSE: Dominik Badinka, 6’2 RHD, FIN
#2: EDMONTON: Andrew Basha, 6’0 LW, WHL
#3: NASHVILLE: Will Skahan, 6’4 LHD, US NTDP
#4: COLUMBUS: Ryder Ritchie, 6’0 LW, WHL
#5: CHICAGO: Melvin Fernstrom, 6’1 C/RW, SWE
#6: MINNESOTA: Tanner Howe, 5’10 RW, WHL
#7: CALGARY: Jakub Fibigr, 6’1 LHD, OHL
#8: SEATTLE: Henry Mews, 6’0 RHD, OHL
#9: OTTAWA: Adam Jecho, 6’3 RW, FIN
#10: NY ISLANDERS: Christian Humphreys, 5’10 C, US NTDP
#11: WINNIPEG (MONTREAL): Yegor Surin, 5’11 C/W, RUS
#12: BUFFALO: Charlie Elick, 6’4 RHD, WHL
#13: NASHVILLE (TAMPA BAY): Lucas Pettersson, 5’11 C, SWE
#14: CAROLINA (PHILADELPHIA): Alfons Freji, 6’1 LHD, SWE
#15: ARIZONA: Justin Poirier, 5’8 RW, QMJHL
#16: NEW JERSEY: David Svozil, 6’1 LHD, FIN
#17: PITTSBURGH: Luke Misa, 5’10 C, OHL
#18:ST LOUIS (TORONTO): Cole Beaudoin, 6’2 C, OHL
#19: CAROLINA: Kamil Bednarek, 6’0 C, US NTDP
#20: ANAHEIM: Hiroki Gojsic, 6’3 RW, BCHL
#21: NASHVILLE (WINNIPEG): Tomas Lavoie, 6’3 RHD, QMJHL
#22: DETROIT: Veeti Vasainien, 6’0 LHD, FIN
#23: ST LOUIS: Keith McInnis, 6’1 LHD, USHL
#24: ARIZONA (WASHINGTON): Stian Solberg, 6’2 LHD, NWY
#25: MONTREAL (COLORADO): Jamiro Reber, 5’10 C, SWISS
#26: CHICAGO (LOS ANGELES): EJ Emery, 6’5 LHD, US NTDP
#27: ARIZONA (FLORIDA): Aiden Park, 6’0 C/W, US HS
#28: CHICAGO (VANCOUVER): Tomas Galvas, 5’10 LHD, CZE
#29: DALLAS: Ondrej Kos, 6’1 LW, FIN
#30: NY RANGERS: Will Felicio, 5’11 LHD, USHL
#31: VEGAS: Tory Pitner, 6’1 RHD, USHL
#32: ANAHEIM (BOSTON): Eemil Vinni, 6’2 G, FIN
ROUND THREE:
#1: ANAHEIM (SAN JOSE): Miguel Marques, 6’0 W, WHL
#2: ARIZONA (EDMONTON): Hagen Burrows, 6’2 W, US HS
#3: NASHVILLE: Sebastian Sioni, 6’1 LHD, FIN
#4: COLUMBUS: Caleb Heil, 6’3 G, USHL
#5: CHICAGO: Alexander Zetterberg, 5’8 C, SWE
#6: MONTREAL (MINNESOTA): Danill Ustinkov, 6’1 LHD, SWISS
#7: CALGARY: Tuomas Suoniemi, 5’10 C, FIN
#8: SEATTLE: Ryerson Leenders, 6’2 G, OHL
#9: CHICAGO (OTTAWA): Oskar Vuollet, 5’10 C/W, SWE
#10: TORONTO (NY ISLANDERS): Adam Titlbach, 5’9 C, WHL
#11: MONTREAL: Adam Kleber, 6’5 RHD, USHL
#12: BUFFALO: Nikita Artamonov, 5’11 RW, RUS
#13: TAMPA BAY: Teddy Stiga, 5’10 RW, US NTDP
#14: PHILADELPHIA: Jack Pridham, 6’1 RW, BCHL
#15: ARIZONA: Nilopekka Muhonen, 6’4 LHD, FIN
#16: NEW JERSEY: Kim Saarinen, 6’4 G, FIN
#17:ANAHEIM (PITTSBURGH): Max Curran, 6’3 C, WHL
#18: SEATTLE (TORONTO): Carson Wetsch, 6’3 RW, WHL
#19: CAROLINA: Anthony Cristoforo, 5’11 RHD, OHL
#20: ANAHEIM: Erik Burger, 5’11 LHD, SWE
#21: WINNIPEG: Dean Letourneau, 6’6 C, OJHL
#22: DETROIT: Linus Eriksson, 6’0 C, SWE
#23: ST LOUIS: Carson Woodall, 5’11 LHD, OHL
#24: WASHINGTON: Luka Testa, 6’0 C, OHL
#25: ARIZONA (COLORADO): Artyom Shchuchinov, 5’11 LHD, RUS
#26: COLUMBUS (LOS ANGELES): Felix Lacerte, 5’10 C, QMJHL
#27: FLORIDA: Nico Antenen, 6’2 C, SWISS
#28: VANCOUVER: Matthieu Tallifer, 6’0 RHD, AJHL
#29: NASHVILLE (DALLAS): John Whipple, 6’1 LHD, US NTDP
#30: ST LOUIS (NY RANGERS): Clarke Caswell, 5’11 LW, WHL
#31: VEGAS: Javon Moore, 6’2 LW, USHL
#32: WASHINGTON (BOSTON): Maxim Velikov, 6’1 RW, RUS
SABRES’ HAUL:
1#12: Cayden Lindstrom, 6’4 C, WHL: Monster of a centerman (6’4, 210#) who plays a linear game and offensive game is improving by leaps and bounds this season. A shoot-first power forward, Lindstrom does a number of things that are hard to find in the Sabres’ prospect pool: he’s going to lower his shoulder and finish his check, he’s going to get to the net, and he’s going to stay there. Skating for a kid his size is excellent. Has great change of direction, knows how to shift gears to keep defenders off balance, and is a very eager backchecker with the wheels to catch up to opponents going the other way. Top speed is excellent and once he gets going, watch out. You don’t want to be on the tracks when this train gets moving. His transitions need some work, but he’s got a powerful burst and can catch defenders by surprise and leave them in the dust. Very strong on his skates. His shot is dangerous. Accuracy is high-end, and he can rip it with enough weight to get defenders to move rather than block the shot. Can catch-and-shoot, fire off the rush, or recover a rebound and laser it bar-down in one motion. Not a great passer, Lindstrom is a straight-ahead player who can get tunnel vision. Fortunately, the end of that tunnel is always the goal mouth. He’s seeing the ice better than last season, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a high-end playmaker or distributor. That’s OK. A puck possession monster, Lindstrom can take a pounding and retain the puck. And he’s begun to use some fakes and changes of direction to buy him more time with the puck or evade his check, a sign his confidence handling the puck is growing. Typically comes out the winner in board battles. Having just switched to center about 18 months ago, Lindstrom is surprisingly responsible in his own end. Much like Tage Thompson, he’s begun to use his reach to close off passing and shooting lanes, disrupt cycles, and torment puck carriers. While there’s still some growing up to do defensively, Lindstrom shows all the signs of developing into a very solid two-way centerman. And he plays a physical game. He’ll hold off defenders with one arm while driving to the crease, he’ll blow guys up along the walls, and knock players over who have the unfortunate circumstance of being in his path on the way to the net. Heavy on his stick, he’s tough to move and if he ties up your stick, you ain’t going anywhere. By most accounts, he’s also very coachable, which is something the Sabres put a high value on. Lindstrom first caught my eye at the Hlinka tournament last year, where he put up 3P in 5 games despite playing bottom 6 minutes on the Gold-medal winning Canadian squad. He’s currently notched 26P in 21 games, with 45 PIMs, for Medicine Hat. If Lindstrom can continue to improve, he can become a player like Pierre Luc Dubois; if not, he likely profiles as a Nicolas Roy/Lawson Crouse type of player. And for the Sabres, I would imagine that’s pretty attractive. Not to mention power forwards typically take a little longer to develop, so Lindstrom could wind up marinating for a few years before he comes up to replace a guy like Mitts, Krebs, or Tage down the road.
2#12: Charlie Elick, 6’4 RHD, WHL: What’s this? Another giant from the WHL? It’s true. Charlie is a mobile, high-compete defender who is still a bit raw but developing game over game. Elick is seen as a prospective shut-down blueliner, but I think he’s got some more offense under the hood that he’ll need some time – and some confidence – to bring out. But before that, his defensive ability needs to be highlighted. He’s a tremendous skater for his size. Excellent 4-way mobility. Super-smooth, really explosive when changing direction, surprisingly light feet for a big kid. His transitions are easy, and he bursts changing from forwards to backwards or vice versa. He’s hard to beat one v one. With his size, reach, and footwork, Elick can absolutely close out opposing forwards. And if he catches you with your head down? Look out. He will lower the boom and leave bodies in his wake. Can tend to chase guys looking for a big hit, but that over aggressiveness can be coached up. His speed and feet allow him to keep really good gaps. Understands how to defend space. Works hard around the net and likes to move bodies out of the top of the crease. Physical defender. Puck retrieval comes naturally, and he moves the puck quickly and efficiently. Not a guy who’s going to beat a forechecker one v one. Doesn’t overhandle the puck, makes the simple play first, last, and always. Some Samuelsson similarities when it comes to puck handling – less is more. When it comes to exiting the zone, Elick always prizes getting the puck out first. His passing is hit-or-miss. At times, he will put a puck on the tape of an exiting forward in-stride. Other times he’ll spray the puck all over the Neutral Zone; so his accuracy and confidence with the puck need to improve. But he can carry the puck if he gets some ice, his speed getting him out of his own end but usually ends up in a dump-in from just inside the red line. Isn’t a natural puck carrier and rarely lugs the puck out of his end and through the NZ. On rare occasions, he’ll get to play on the PP. This is where I think he shows some flashes of offense, when he has some space to operate. There’s not a real fancy element to his game – Elick doesn’t dangle or try to dance around defenders. However, he’s smart in getting pucks to the net and finding lanes even when he’s not teeing up a big clapper. Understands the importance of keeping the puck moving and placement. Simple, direct short-area passes are where he does his best work. Elick never gives up on a play. His quickness, reach and footwork help him stay in plays where he appears to be beaten, and he will skate his brains out to recover if he does get beat. Highly competitive, never leaves a teammate out to dry and eagerly protects his goaltender. Had a nice tournament at the Hlinka for the champion Canadian team, with 2P in 5 games, and has managed to put up 8P in 21 games for the Wheat Kings thus far while playing big minutes on a young but exciting Brandon club. People like to compare him to a former Wheatie, Brayden Schneider (of the Rangers), but I think of him as a hybrid of Samuelsson and Ryan Johnson – physicality mixed with skating, but neither are guys who are big-time offensive threats. And the Sabres I think would take that all day.
3#12: Nikita Artamonov, 5’11 RW, RUS: This could be a huge steal for the Sabres in the 3rd round. Over the past couple years, we’ve seen a lot of Russians slide in the Draft due to circumstances outside of their control, particularly the geopolitical issues plaguing that part of the world. The Sabres are one of the teams who’ve shown a willingness to disregard that trend. They’ve been repaid for the risk so far, with players like Nikita Novikov, Alex Kisakov and Viktor Neuchev coming over to North America and playing (well!) for the Amerks. This could be another player who slides on Draft Day. Artamonov is a super-smart, cerebral playmaker. He’s a pure passer, something the Sabres don’t have a lot of in the system. Has excellent vision and always sees the ice well, but his ability to process at speed and predict where open teammates will be is elite. Likes an up-tempo game where his playmaking really can shine, the Russian wing can come off the wall and get pucks into the low slot for a chance, far post for a tap-in, or to the top of the crease for a tip or deflection. Equally dangerous picking pucks up off the board in the Neutral Zone and finding the right player in the right plane on odd-man rushes. Smart enough to pass into space and let his teammates collect the puck on the move. Not much of a shooter, despite being quite solid (5’11 190#) Artamonov doesn’t have much of a shot. Which is good, I guess, because he doesn’t shoot much. Placement is good, but it’s neither hard nor heavy. Really smart all over the ice. He always seems to be in the right position. Rarely gets caught behind the play, easily identifies where the play is going and winds up right where he should be as it develops. His reads are not only excellent in the O-zone – he has hockey smarts all over the ice, which helps him be extremely effective on the forecheck and create a bunch of turnovers, defend in space in his own end, and get to pucks first. This is important because he’s not a great skater. He doesn’t have a ton of burst, and his lateral movement can be a bit choppy. Both need work. But much like Sam Reinhart when he came into the NHL, Artamonov beats opponents to spots, and to pucks, thanks to his ability to recognize where the puck will be before it gets there. What’s really impressive is how much Artamonov has surprised with huge output at the KHL level in his Draft year – something very unusual in the Russian leagues – with 13P in 25 games, despite sometimes getting only 6-9 minutes of ice time a game. Those numbers will keep scouts aware of him, but unfortunately, he injured his shoulder recently and some expect him to be out for at least a few weeks. I could see him being a PP specialist and a player a bit like Alex Tanguay from back in the day.
4#12: Leon Muggli, 6’0 LHD, SWISS: Another smooth, reliable puck transporter to add to the group of prospect defenders. A do-it-all blueliner, Muggli is a strong skating, smart, efficient D-Man who isn’t elite at any one thing but can play nearly any role you want from him. Skating is very good. He’s not a blazer and won’t go end-to-end on you, but his lateral movement and closing quickness is excellent. He mirrors offensive players – even much older, more experienced ones – flawlessly. 4-way mobility is high-end, and he transitions and changes directions smoothly and with anticipation. He’s got decent explosion and once he gets going, top speed is pretty good, but he won’t win a lot of races the length of the ice. Even so, his skating is great where it counts: in tight, countering opponents. Couple his feet with an aggressive, physical element and he’s very tough to beat. Doesn’t shy away from puck battles, uses all the tools he has – elbows, lower body, stick – to gain advantage. Will lower his shoulder to separate a forward from the puck and can drop the occasional hip check into the mix as well. Excellent gaps, tightens the screws on his check and snuffs out of a lot of plays – doesn’t matter if its shot or pass – before it can become dangerous. Plays a safe game, but part of that is playing as a draft eligible in a senior Men’s League. He needs to play safe to get more minutes, as coaches worldwide don’t like rookies. And that’s been working for him. Still, while Muggli’s role thus far has been defensive-centric, there’s more there. He can be evasive with the puck when pressured, beat a forechecker and make a clean outlet to his partner or an exiting forward. He doesn’t join the rush often given the safe nature of his game at this level, but when he does, he’s a clever puck distributor. Bank passes off the wall in the NZ or drop passes when entering the zone allow him to showcase his creativity. A later birthday – July – Muggli made the senior Men’s League (the National League) in Switzerland for one of their cornerstone programs, Zug. He started out playing only a handful of minutes a game, but of late, has been getting 14-15 minutes a night. Has a respectable 5P in 19 games thus far. Served as Captain for the Swiss Team in both the U-18s and the Hlinka tournament, leading the Swiss to their best ever showing in the latter. Could see him being a Toni Lydman sort of player in the long-term.