Buffalo Sabres (10-13-2) vs. Detroit Red Wings (13-7-3)
Puck Drop: 7:30 PM EST | KeyBank Center | Buffalo NY
TV: ESPN+ / Hulu
Radio: WGR-550
Know Your Opponent
Detroit Red Wings
Record: 13-7-3
Last Game: 5-4 overtime Win over the Montreal Canadiens
Division Ranking: 3rd, Atlantic
PP: 23.5%, 8th
PK: 79.1% 19th
What to Watch
1. Laying the Body on the Line
Detroit has been a team that has surprised the league. Considered probably the third best of the “up and coming teams” in the Atlantic behind Buffalo and Ottawa, they have proven that their offseason signings are filling in the gaps that their prospects had not yet filled. Highlighting this is their scoring success, with elevated expected goals, shooting percentages and one of the highest shots on net rate. It just so happens that the Sabres have the ability to counter their high-volume shooting style. The Sabres are ranked 8th in the NHL in blocked shots. They have been sacrificing the body particularly well, led by Dahlin and Power. If the Sabres want to have a chance at stopping an offence that is producing like a well-oiled machine, they’re going to have to continue putting the body on the line.
Another way the Sabres can take advantage of the Red Wings is to play a physical game. Detroit is one of the lowest-hitting teams, but they are also the 3rd least hit team in the league. While Buffalo is not known for playing a tough style of game (besides a small number of players), it may be beneficial to stray away from the run-and-gun offensive game against a team that has shown that they excel with that sort of play.
2. Intentional Decisions with the Puck
It is safe to say that the Sabres play of late has been more than a little sloppy. Too many times, there have been careless plays with the puck that have led to unnecessary chances against, or even pulling the puck out of the back of the net. The Sabres are 3rd in the NHL in giveaways with 179 and 10th in defensive zone giveaways with 91. This is a result of careless plays and a lack of intent behind passes being made. While rushing the play and playing in a state of panic will only cause a further spiral from the month of November into December, more urgency is required to allow for a successful transition from defence to offence. Perhaps this can be chalked up to a lack of cohesion between the defenceman and forwards, or maybe other teams have figured out how to forecheck the Sabres’ transition system. Regardless, given the quality scoring chances that have been happening from the peripheral areas of the slot (medium-danger chances), there is definitely a correlation between the number of turnovers and those higher-quality scoring chances. Playing with intent by knowing who they want to distribute the puck will be a crucial determinant of this team turning their game around.
3. Tactical Shooting
The Sabres have been getting quality scoring chances. They rank 13th in Higher Danger Chances For. But the fact that they are 8th in Medium Chances For actually plays a more significant role. For goalies with at least 10 starts, Husso ranks 10th worst in save percentage from medium danger chances at 0.850. Oddly enough, both current active goalies, Husso and Lyon, have remarkable save percentages when it comes to high-danger chances. This means that in tight, they have been able to find the puck all season. Conversely, they have been fighting the puck from the outside. This can be exemplified by the fact that all of their goalies have let up more rebounds than they have statistically been expected to. With the Sabres’s ability to create chances from the high slot, crashing the net may be their best tactic. Given the increased opportunity for rebounds, guys who play a more gritty style of game, (e.g., Okposo, Girgensons and even Krebs) may have a better chance at getting on the scoreboard than they usually would.
Projected Lineups
Buffalo Sabres*
* Tage Thompson is set to return to the lineup Tuesday night. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is ill, prompting the Sabres to recall Devon Levi from Rochester.
Forwards
Skinner – Mittlestadt – Thompson
Benson – Cozens – Peterka
Jost – Krebs – Okposo
Rosén – Biro – Olofsson
Defence
Dahlin – Samuelsson
Power – Jokiharju
Clifton – E. Johnson
Projected Starter: Eric Comrie
Detroit Red Wings
Forwards
Fabbri – Larkin – Raymond
Debrincat – Compher – Veleno
Rasmussen – Copp – Perron
Kostin – Fischer – Sprong
Defence
Walman – Seider
Chiarot – Petry
Holl – Gostisbehere
Projected Starter: Alex Lyon