Game #25
Nashville Predators (11-12-0) vs. Buffalo Sabres (10-12-2)
Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. EST, KeyBank Center
TV: MSG-B, BSSO
Radio: WGR-550
Know Your Opponent
Nashville Predators
Record: 11-12-0
Last Game: 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers
Division Ranking: 6th in the Central
PP: 18th (19.35%)
PK: 29th (72.97%)
What to Watch
1) Both Teams Play Back-to-Back, But Buffalo is at Home
Each opponent in this matchup is meeting in the second game of a back-to-back, with the Predators previously playing the New York Rangers and the Sabres facing the Carolina Hurricanes.
Teams are worse on the second half of a back-to-back, with NHL opponents 5% less likely to win with no days of rest, according to Daniel Wagner of Vancouver is Awesome.com. Making it harder to prevail is when a team has to travel to face an opponent at home. The Blue and Gold have a slight advantage, because they get to sleep in their own beds and use their home locker room, plus have the home crowd in the stands.
This doesn’t help Buffalo during the rest of the season, as the Sabres have 12 back-to-back contests this year vs. Nashville’s lower 9, tied with Vancouver and Arizona. However, the hosts need any edge in every game, so facing the Preds at home is bound to help a little.
2) Sabres Were 3-4 vs. the Preds Last Two Seasons, Nashville Won Last One
Buffalo is 14-18-1 versus Nashville all time. However, the Sabres dominated the Predators in 2022-23 and 2023-24, winning three out of four matchups. That record included three games at home and one on the road. Unfortunately, the Preds prevailed in their last meeting, beating Buffalo 7-3 at KeyBank Center on 3/21/2023.
The home team needs to step up and play their best hockey, if they hope to keep the game from getting away from them, as the Sabres unfortunately experienced in recent contests against the New Jersey Devils, St. Louis Blues and Carolina Hurricanes.
3) Blue and Gold the Betting Favorites
The Buffalo Sabres are -1.5 puck line favorites in their matchup against the Nashville Predators, based on the odds from Caesars. Despite this, Mike Fink of Winners and Whiners.com advises bettors to bet on the underdog visitors.
The Predators score an average of 3.23 goals per game, with Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist leading their offense. By contrast, the Sabres average 2.96 GPG. Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka and Jeff Skinner score the most but the rest of the team’s lines have struggled.
Even though Nashville lost its last two matchups and doesn’t have a much better defense than Buffalo, Fink believes the Preds will control this contest from start to finish. If you feel Fink is wrong and the majority of wagering action is right, bet on the favorites for a probable payout.
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Projected Lineups
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards
Jeff Skinner – Casey Mittelstadt – Alex Tuch
Zach Benson – Dylan Cozens – JJ Peterka
Jordan Greenway* – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo
Brandon Biro – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin – Mattias Samuelsson
Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju
Connor Clifton – Erik Johnson
Goaltenders
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely starter), Eric Comrie
*Jordan Greenway suffered an upper-body injury in last night’s matchup against Carolina and will be a game-time decision
Nashville Predators
Forwards
Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist
Kiefer Sherwood – Jusso Parssinen – Luke Evangelista
Yakov Trenin – Colton Sissons – Cole Smith
Liam Foudy – Michael McCarron – Philip Tomasino
Defense
Ryan McDonagh – Roman Josi
Dante Fabbro – Jeremy Lauzon
Spencer Stasney – Luke Schenn
Goaltenders
Juuse Saros (likely starter), Kevin Lankinen