I have been saving this up for a few weeks and given it some serious thought. I’m sure my opinions will be debatable and I’m looking forward to subsequent comments and dialog. I think we all agree that the current season has been a bit of a disappointment. I’m not here to point fingers and I don’t have all the solutions. I do have to say that not everything that happened this year was a negative.
There are a number of things that are true now that were not true a year ago. Last year at this time neither Dahlin nor Power were in the fold long term. Last year at this time we had no NHL caliber full time goalie. Last year we were expecting full time production from several rookies.
Here’s what see in terms of roster status right now:
Defense
Dahlin – 11 M
Power – 8.35 M
Samuelsson – 4.286 M
Bryam – 3.85 M
Clifton – 3.33 M
My opinion is that Jokiharju has demonstrated enough to deserve a new deal. I’m thinking Clifton type numbers – 4 years at 3.25 . In addition, the Sabres control, Bryson, Clague, Sjalin and Stillman. Ryan Johnson is NHL ready. Novikov not far behind and Komarov is set to join the AHL. I’m seeing RyJo as a number 7. Assuming Bryson and/or Clague can be retained on 2 way deals at 1.5 M average, I see 9 defensemen for a total of 37.991 million. Allowing for injury and roster composition, I think this is a competitive group and the daily hit ought to be less than 36 M. I see depth, flexibility, ability to move the puck, increased experience and the oldest guy will be 29. I’ll revisit the experience thing later.
Goalie
UPL was outstanding at times. He had some struggles. In the final 4 months of the season, I think he proved to be an NHL caliber goalie. Something we did not have last offseason. That said, he is not Patrick Roy, nor even Ryan Miller. I put his value between Swayman, Georgiev, and Stuart Skinner. 5 years at 4.75 M? I’m betting KA is looking at a long term Levi/UPL pair to match Boston’s duo. The need will be for an NHL worthy option not named Eric Comrie. I don’t have name for this. Devin Cooley? I wouldn’t even object to Reimer if that can work. I would expect UPL and Levi to carry the load. I see the total cost to be 6.5 M
Forward.
TNT, Cozens, Tuch, Skinner, Greenway, Benson, Quinn, JJP, Rousek – nine guys signed for a total of 34.437. Krebs is an RFA. My guess is that arbitration would not benefit the player. I don’t see more than 3 years at 2.75M. There are better options in the system. I still like Girgensons on a one year 2 M deal. I would like to see only one rookie make this team, preferably at center. The organization should let that play out in camp, but I would expect the major competition to come down to Kulich, Savoie, Ostlund and Rosen. That gives us 12 forwards at 40.10 M. So long VO, Jost and Robinson.
That brings the bill to 82.6 M of a projected 88 M cap. JJP, Quinn and Byram will be coming due. I see all 3 being signed. I think there is room in here for signing a veteran forward not named Tyson Jost.
Others:
I think criticism of the coaching staff are justified. I don’t have a plan, but i dislike the idea of reaching for a choice from the coaching carousel and I believe there are some positives here as well. Matt Ellis has been a faithful and hardworking employee, but I wonder if there is a slot for him in player development. I would like to see the infusion of some new ideas but I am also a believer in continuity. Would you swap Ellis and Prospal?
Young athletes in all sports get bounced around a bit. Even if fully grown, an athlete physically matures between the ages of 19 and 25. Along with physical maturity, there is a significant gain in an athletes poise and decision making that comes with experience. I’ve seen that growth in maturity in baseball (Dave Justice for example) and basketball. On the ice this year I saw JJP make quicker and more confident decisions. During the last several weeks, the team as a whole moved the puck better, and more decidedly. There is good reason for optimism.
I see KA being cautious again and not making major moves. I would not hate the idea of trading an asset for the right fit, but I’m not expecting much.
Interested in hearing your thoughts
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