The Sabres were less than 2 minutes away from a W and 2 points, but the Capitals stole the game in OT.
Score: Sabres 3 | Capitals 4
Shots: Sabres 27 | Capitals 30
Buffalo Sabres Goals: JJ Peterka (8), Zach Benson (1), Dylan Cozens (4)
Washington Capitals Goals: Alexander Alexeyev (1), T.J. Oshie (1), Tom Wilson (4), Dylan Strome (8)
Plus 1: Young Guns Getting on the Board
Highlighted by Benson’s first NHL goal, all three of the Sabres’ goal scorers were below the age of 23. While this demographic makes up six of the 20 skaters rostered last game, the impact of their younger players was really put on display last night. With Thompson out, and a couple of older impact players like Tuch and Skinner having their production dip from last season (Tuch on pace for a 31-point decrease from last season and Skinner on pace for a 24-point decrease from last year), getting contributions on the scoresheet from some of the younger bodies on the roster is necessary to keep the Sabres afloat.
Zach Benson’s first NHL goal will certainly be one to remember. As he attacked the net out of the left-hand corner, Capitals’ goalie Darcy Kuemper read Benson’s initial move to the backhand, taking away the right-hand side of the net. There are very few players in the NHL that have the high-paced cognition to recognize that the initial space was taken away from them and then have the ability to find new space that allowed a high-quality scoring chance to occur. Not to mention the deception, mobility and quick hands that enabled him to go between the legs and bardown.
Peterka did an exemplary job at finding open ice throughout the game, capitalizing on a chance in the high slot in the first period. Cozens commanded the puck for his powerplay goal, taking a number of shots from the top of the left circle before blasting home a one-timer above Kuemper’s glove. But the play of the Sabres’ youngsters goes beyond just what they contributed on the scoresheet. Benson was buzzing around the ice, particularly on the forecheck, Cozens was generating plays in transition, and Peterka had eight shot attempts.
Minus 1: Fighting the Puck
While Levi did not play poorly, the game could have gone much better for him. Throughout the game, he seemed to be fighting the puck with rebounds flying off of him at a higher rate than usual. Shots were flying in the air, going in and out of his glove, and finding themselves in the slot for the defense to move out of danger. This can be verified with analytics tracked from his performance. With an expected goals against of 2.245, there is evidence that he did in fact, get unlucky last night. But what is even more interesting, which indicates his struggles with the puck last night, was his expected freezes. This analytic tracks how many times the goalie was expected to freeze the puck based on the number of shots he’s received, the quality of the shot, and its location.
Levi had an expected freeze of 6.381, but only one freeze throughout the game. Moreover, Levi had an expected rebound shot against of 1.81 but had three rebound shots against, confirming that the puck was loose more often than it should have been. While there is also evidence that the Sabres’ defense did not give Levi any favors last night, hopefully, this game proves to be an anomaly to his young career.
Minus 2: Could Not Close the Game Out
Holding on to a lead for over 20 minutes, starting with the 3-2 goal from Cozens at 16.18 of the second period all the way to Wilson’s 3-3 tying goal at 18:45 of the third, the Sabres came so close to taking the game in regulation. With the goalie pulled and a number of scoring chances, the Capitals finally broke through. In overtime, chances were heavily favored for the Sabres, but all it took was one mistake, and Dylan Strome scored on an odd-man rush. Losing out on an extra point hurts the Sabres as they attempt to remain in the fight for a chance at the playoffs.
The season is still early, but the difference between the Sabres making the playoffs last year was a couple of points. Taking advantage of games where they deserve to win is crucial to making the next step in the organization’s development. On moneypuck.com’s ‘Deserve to Win O’Meter’, the Sabres won 58.4% of the time in 1000 simulations based on their play last night, indicating that their play was above that of Washington’s. While deserving to win is great, actually winning is even better. Finding ways to win the games when the pressure is on will be something that the young Sabres team will have to learn how to do in order to find consistent long-term success in the National Hockey League.
The Sabres head home to host the Pittsburgh Penguins next, with a Black Friday matchup at KeyBank Center. Puck drop is at 6:00 p.m.
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