This is a FanPost written by Matt in Cleveland
With the Sabres coming off a year where they had the third ranked scoring offense in hockey, and narrowly missing the playoffs due to their 26th ranked defense in goals allowed, its quite clear that the Sabres are looking to upgrade their defense. One of the key names that has been talked about this offseason, has been Brett Pesce from the Carolina Hurricanes. Pesce has also been linked to the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche. It’s looking more like the Sabres would like to try and hit a home run this offseason when looking for that fourth defenseman in their top four to pair with Owen Power, and I think they are looking to take care of this issue long term, instead of looking for a band-aid veteran. There are a view different ways the Sabres can accomplish landing their defenseman this offseason.
The NHL Draft: Rebuilding the Farm
The Sabres have used five of their last 33 selections since 2019 on defenseman, and it shows as evidence by their lack of prospect depth in the system. However, the guys they do have are young, and home runs. Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin are both 23, and Owen Power is only 20. Those three will be together for a long time. Could they invest some premium draft capital in the position this year? Dmitri Simashev could be a prime option at that spot if you feel he is capable of effectively playing both sides. A 6’4 defenseman who skates like the wind would make the Sabres defense potent for years to come.Tom Williander could be another option, but i’m particularly big on him at 13th overall mainly because I have questions about his ceiling. Even if the Sabres choose to bolster their defense group through the draft, the Sabres will still need a veteran presence next season, as it will take some time for some of these prospects to make it here. We also can’t forget about Ryan Johnson, who will most likely marinate in Rochester for a good part of the year, but if he performs well, he could be an underrated option to have a few cups of coffee in the NHL.
Building Trade Currency
Conventional wisdom says the Sabres should look to take a defenseman high in the draft, but that may or may not be the best move. At the end of the day, best rated player available should be the selection, and even if you’re loaded at a particular spot, these players are potential currency that we can use for the main roster, or on the trade market. My hope for the Sabres at pick 13, is that they select Quentin Musty, left wing from Sudbury, and Buffalo native. Now many would like Musty just because he’s a hometown product, but I particularly want him because he’s immensely skilled, and could project as a legit power forward in the NHL. A name he is frequently compared to is Sam Bennett. He brings an element to the Sabres that their farm system could use more of as a big, skilled forward. Adding a guy like Musty to the system means that you could become more willing to dangle a couple of your forward prospects such as Isak Rosen, and Noah Ostlund to a team looking to move a defenseman. That is where Carolina and Brett Pesce comes into play.
The NHL Draft: Rebuilding the Farm
First, we should establish who I wouldn’t trade, and right off the bat, the name that comes to mind is Casey Mittelstadt. It’s not that Mittelstadt is untouchable by any means, but we’ve been waiting for this guy to arrive for years. Many, including myself, have written him off as a bust. But in Tim Connolly fashion, it took him some time, and he put together a near 60-pt season, and really flourished on a line with Tuch and Skinner. Mittelstadt gives you a lot of lineup flexibility with his versatility to play all three forward spots, and can fill in admirably well on a top line. With Mittelstadt on the Sabres, they have three rock solid centerman for next year, and could potentially have a fourth one in Krebs. I myself have said before that Mittelstadt should stay in between Tuch and Skinner, while Tage Thompson moves to his own line. I really felt like a major issue last season was that teams could zero in on the Sabres top line, because we didn’t have enough consistency after the Tuch-Thompson-Skinner line with chipping in secondary scoring on offense.
The Sabres last season took off for me when the kid line of Peterka-Cozens-Quinn got hot. However, eventually, they cooled off significantly. But, then it became the line of Mittelstadt-Olafsson-Jost that eventually picked up the slack and got hot. And then last in the season, when Tage Thompson was battling injuries, we got to see the best of Casey Mittelstadt. I personally love the idea of Mittelstadt centering Skinner and Tuch, with Tage Thompson driving his own line, potentially with Dylan Cozens. This could prove to be a very difficult team to game plan against if the Mittelstadt driven line retains it’s chemistry, and if Thompson and Cozens can click. But, who would play with them? Jack Quinn could be an option, as could Jordan Greenway. Let me just say, I don’t believe the Sabres brought in Greenway to be a fourth-line banger. Greenway was acquired for his ceiling that he has yet to reach. Minnesota gave up on reaching that ceiling, but Don Granato believes that he can get him to reach that ceiling. David Pagnotta from the Fourth Period mentioned that the Sabres were linked to Lawson Crouse. Say whatever you want about Pagnotta, lets say hypothetically that they made an inquiry on Crouse.
By the way, that is all I think it was, just a check-in on his availability if there was any truth to the report. You can never have enough guys like that, but Lawson Crouse is the guy you hope Jordan Greenway can turn into. He may be 26, and maybe the window has shut, but I expect Don Granato to give him a legit shot to breakout. I do think that a Cozens-Thompson-Greenway line would be very tough to play against. But maybe, you put Jack Quinn in that spot? Your third line could potentially potentially be Peyton Krebs elevating to the third line center spot, and centering J.J Peterka and Jack Quinn or Jordan Greenway. Okposo and Girgensons could occupy the fourth line. There is room here to add a forward.
A player like J.T Compher could be an intriguing add as you can move him all over the lineup, and he also has a Don Granato connection. With a Stanley Cup ring, and as a high quality two-way player. You could also add a gritty fourth line center like a Noel Acciari to allow Krebs to move up, or you can bring back Tyson Jost. Regardless of what Don Granato chooses to do with the lines, whether if he decides to leave Thompson-Tuch-Skinner alone, and leave the Cozens-Peterka-Quinn line intact, Mittelstadt is still a huge luxury to have around.
If there is an injury to a player like a Thompson or Cozens, or any top-six forward, it’s a major luxury to have a player like Mittelstadt to plug in. Mittelstadt is not untouchable, but I feel trading him right now would be a decision they regret if they sustain an injury. It’s nice to have that kind of depth and flexibility, and if he were traded away, the Sabres would miss him. In a potential trade for Pesce, there’s other ways to do it.
What Should the Sabres Pay for Pesce?
Ultimately, the Sabres can probably put together a very strong package for Pesce, without including pick 13, Mittelstadt, or a prospect like Kulich or Savoie, and personally, I wouldn’t be interested in parting with any of those assets. Having said that, my offer for Pesce would be the following: To Buffalo: RHD Brett Pesce To Carolina: C Noah Ostlund, RW Alexander Kisakov, RHD Henri Jokiharju, and Pick 39 in the 2023 NHL Draft. Why does it make sense? While Buffalo lands their top-four defenseman to pair with Owen Power, Carolina lands a nice package of quantity. Carolina can easily use picks 39 and 45 to move up to acquire a second first round pick in the draft. Ostlund gives them a premium center prospect for their pool, and Henri Jokiharju gives them a young, cost-controlled defenseman to help replace Pesce. Carolina will be on the prowl for another scoring forward, but I don’t believe Victor Olafsson will be a fit there playing for Rod Brind’Amour. I do however believe that the Hurricanes can use this trade to bolster their prospect pool warchest to acquire the forward they are looking for. Buffalo would potentially solidify their top-four for years to come, assuming he comes with an extension.
Potential Problems with a Pesce Trade
Cost in acquiring him is not so much a problem as his next contract and the possibility that he wants the max term of 8-years. The most important thing to consider here is that Pesce will be turning 29 next November, and will be 30 for his new contract in 2024-25. There is also one other problem: injuries. As per Cory Lavalette from the Athletic, Pesce has had his season twice cut short due to shoulder injuries, although he did play a full 82 games last year. He does have quite a few miles on him from playing over 20 minutes a night over the past eight years in the league. He may want an eight year deal, but it may be a contract that a team regrets down the road. There are a lot of similarities between Colton Parayko and Brett Pesce. Both are big, former third round pick defenseman who have packed on a lot of miles of ice time coming into the league, playing big minutes and tough situations at a young age. Pesce will likely get his big, long extension, while Parayko got his extension that started last year.
Yet, many won’t even bat an eyelash at acquiring Parayko, even though he can be acquired for cheap, and when Pesce starts his eight-year deal, you’ll only have six more years to go at 6.5 million for a defenseman that’s only a year older. If you can make it four to five years in, then you can explore a buyout option, and you’re only on the hook for 3.3 million for two years, followed by 1.6 million for two more. It’s not the worst situation in the world. I’m not saying they should trade for Colton Parayko over Brett Pesce, the point I am making is that if Pesce is acquired, you need to be careful over handing out such a long contract and committing a significant amount of cap space, and you’re going to need to pay far more assets to acquire Pesce. It could easily be a scenario that backfires on you, and if it’s due to injuries.
While the price for Pesce may be around a mid first round pick asset, an additional draft pick, and a roster player, maybe the better route to go would be to sign a veteran defenseman like a Scott Mayfield or Matt Dumba, if you can get decent term and money?