This is a FanPost written by Die By The Blade reader T. McGee.
DBTBers –
Hello, my fellow DBTB’ers! We are well and truly underway for the 2024 Draft Year. Every league of note is playing; already some standouts are making their presence known. So let’s dig into it.
This is a good draft, one that is growing on me. Some players I was skeptical of have really shown out so far. There’s some good talent at the top, but no one who’s a surefire franchise player, so that kind of lowers the overall expectations for this class. But its depth is starting to show. We’ll see if it can continue, but a lot of guys who were fringy 1st rounders are playing really well thus far to my eyes. It’s starting to remind me of a combination of the MacKinnon and Hischier Drafts. A couple of top forwards go 1-2-3, then a bunch of defenders follow. In 2013, after the Top 3 (MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin) you saw a bunch of blueliners go: Seth Jones, Nurse, Risto, Zadorov, Morin, Morrissey, Pulock, Mueller, and Theodore. In Hischier’s Draft Year, only Elias Pettersson could be remotely called a star forward from the Top 10, but it did have some superstar defenders (Makar, Heiskanen). But the strength of that Draft was the latter half of the 1st round with guys like Josh Norris, Robert Thomas, Filip Chytil, even Jason Robertson in the early 2nd.
This year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more defenders go – maybe 12-15 in the 1st round. Which would be staggering. That MacKinnon year was also a very thin Draft…the bottom half of the 1st round was filled with busts, and one you got into the 2nd round or later, there isn’t much to write home about. The 2017 Draft was weak in the Top 15, especially for forwards, but had some depth later. I’m not sure this year’s Draft will be so thin once you get out of the Top 10, but it’s always possible. I just think it will be a mix. There will be some misses early, and some gems later. But very few superstars, and likely no franchise-type players.
One thing it does have on last year’s draft: there are more, and more varied, talented blueliners toward the top of this year’s group. Several guys with good size, good mobility, some are defense-only, others are puck wizards who can make plays up the ice, there are thumpers and players who can evade contact. So if you’re in the market for a D-Man, you should be able to find at least one in this bunch. One other item of note: this is a remarkably good year for the USHL. It’s possible 3 of the Top 5 players chosen will be ostensibly from the USHL (Eiserman plays for the National Team Program, but it is housed within the USHL). It wouldn’t be crazy to suggest that almost one-third of the 1st round could be from the USHL. That’s amazing, considering it’s not expected to be a great year for the US NTDP. This also appears to be a very thin year for centers and goaltenders, especially the latter. We may not see a goalie chosen until the 3rd round at this rate. Obviously, a lot can change over the course of a season. But right now, with limited views, no one jumps out at me.
There have been some notable surprises thus far. First, in injury news, both Ivan Demidov and Aron Kiviharju are out for extended periods. These two came into the season as consensus Top 15 caliber players, so losing them for a while is a tough break not only for prospect watchers, but for the kids. Here’s hoping they both get healthy soon and keep their dreams alive!
In the US, both Macklin Celebrini and Artyom Levshunov are freshmen, and both are at least a Point-Per-Game. That’s remarkable. And one reason why they’re both considered Top 10 selections at this point. Cole Eiserman has been lighting the twine on fire, with 18 goals (!) in 11 games. There are some faults in his overall game, but he is easily the best goal scorer in the Draft and maybe the best pure scorer we’ve seen in years. In the USHL, Matvei Gridin exploded out of the gate in his 2nd year in North America. The big Russian forward has notched 16P in 9 games already to lead the entire league in scoring.
Up North in Canada, Terak Paraschak (25P in 12 games) and Tij Iginla (19P in 11 games, and Jarome’s kid!) are tearing up the WHL. Back East, in Quebec, McGee favorite Maxim Masse has already put up 17P in 12 games while playing with Sabre draft pick Norwin Panocha. And in Ontario, big wing Liam Greentree put himself in 1st round conversations with 13P in 9 games for Windsor.
Across the pond in Europe, Russian defenseman Anton Silyayev has gotten a lot of the early attention for his size/skating combo (6’7 and very mobile), but power wing Igor Chernyshov has been dynamite with 11P in 10 games at the MHL level. Sweden’s Leo Sahlin Wallenius, another defender, is sparkling with 10P in 12 games at the U-20 level. Another blueliner playing in Sweden, Czech Dominik Badinka (and a McGee favorite) has impressed with 11P in 12 games while adding a healthy 35 PIMs. So a lot of players to like coming up.
As for our beloved Sabres, their prospect pool is so deep and balanced, they can truly swing for the fences when they select. An actual Best-Player-Available strategy makes sense. Defender, center, wing…could be any of those. It will be interesting to see what they do…or if they even have a 1st rounder when we do get to Draft Day.
Traditionally, I take the Vegas odds for the Stanley Cup at the time of this typing and use that to arrange the Draft order. So I’m not making a statement or anything with the order of selection…don’t yell at me about where I have certain teams! Just making it easier for me. Next time around, I’ll use the actual standings. Enjoy and leave your comments below (I know you will)!
ROUND ONE:
#1: MONTREAL: Macklin Celebrini, 5’11 C, NCAA
#2: ANAHEIM: Cole Eiserman, 6’0 RW, US NTDP
#3: SAN JOSE: Adam Jiricek, 6’1 RHD, CZE
#4: CHICAGO: Berkly Catton, 5’11 C/LW, WHL
#5: PHILADELPHIA: Igor Chernyshov, 6’2 LW, RUS
#6: ARIZONA: Sam Dickinson, 6’3 LHD, OHL
#7: COLUMBUS: Artyom Levshunov, 6’2 RHD, NCAA
#8: DETROIT: Maxim Masse, 6’1 LW, QMJHL
#9: WASHINGTON: Ivan Demidov, 5’11 RW, RUS
#10: NASHVILLE: Konsta Helenius, 5’9 RW, FIN
#11: SEATTLE: Yegor Surin, 5’11 C/W, RUS
#12: VANCOUVER: Tanner Howe, 5’10 RW, WHL
#13: ST LOUIS: Henry Mews, 6’0 RHD, OHL
#14: WINNIPEG: Adam Jecho, 6’3 RW, FIN
#15: NY ISLANDERS: Sasha Boisvert, 6’2 C, USHL
#16: OTTAWA: Carter Yakemchuk, 6’2 RHD, WHL
#17: BUFFALO: Beckett Sennecke, 6’2 RW, OHL
#18: CALGARY: Emil Hemming, 6’2 LW, FIN
#19: MINNESOTA: Trevor Connolly, 6’1 LW, USHL
#20: PITTSBURGH: Cole Hutson, 5’9 LHD, US NTDP
#21: LOS ANGELES: Karl Sterner, 6’3 RW, SWE
#22: FLORIDA: Anton Silyayev, 6’7 LHD, RUS
#23: TAMPA BAY: Dominik Badinka, 6’2 RHD, FIN
#24: NY RANGERS: Zayne Parekh, 6’0 RHD, OHL
#25: BOSTON: Michael Braddsegg-Nygard, 6’1 RW, SWE
#26: VEGAS: Melvin Fernstrom, 6’1 C/RW, SWE
#27: DALLAS: Liam Greentree, 6’2 RW, OHL
#28: EDMONTON: Cayden Lindstrom, 6’5 C, WHL
#29: TORONTO: Aron Kiviharju, 5’10 LHD, FIN
#30: NEW JERSEY: Simon Zether, 6’3 C, SWE
#31: CAROLINA: Zeev Buium, 6’0 LHD, US NTDP
#32: COLORADO: Leo Sahlin-Wallenius, 6’0 LHD, SWE
ROUND TWO:
#1: WINNIPEG (MONTREAL): Michael Hage, 6’1 C, USHL
#2: ANAHEIM: Christian Humphreys, 5’10 C, US NTDP
#3: SAN JOSE: Cole Beaudoin, 6’2 C, OHL
#4: CHICAGO: Will Skahan, 6’4 LHD, US NTDP
#5: CAROLINA (PHILADELPHIA): Keith McInnis, 6’1 LHD, USHL
#6: ARIZONA: Jamiro Reber, 5’10 C, SWISS
#7: COLUMBUS: Tomas Lavoie, 6’3 RHD, QMJHL
#8: DETROIT: Tomas Galvas, 5’10 LHD, CZE
#9: ARIZONA (WASHINGTON): Andrew Basha, 6’0 LW, WHL
#10: NASHVILLE: David Svozil, 6’1 LHD, FIN
#11: SEATTLE: Ryder Ritchie, 6’0 LW, WHL
#12: CHICAGO (VANCOUVER): Terik Paraschak, 5’11 RW, WHL
#13: ST LOUIS: Charlie Elick, 6’4 RHD, WHL
#14: NASHVILLE (WINNIPEG): Adam Titlbach, 5’9 C, WHL
#15: NY ISLANDERS: Matvei Grindin, 6’1 C, USHL
#16: OTTAWA: Hiroki Gojsic, 6’3 RW, BCHL
#17: BUFFALO: Stian Solberg, 6’2 LHD, NWY
#18: CALGARY: Jakub Fibigr, 6’1 LHD, OHL
#19: MINNESOTA: Veeti Vasainien, 6’0 LHD, FIN
#20: PITTSBURGH: Tory Pitner, 6’1 RHD, USHL
#21: CHICAGO (LOS ANGELES): Alfons Freji, 6’1 LHD, SWE
#22: ARIZONA (FLORIDA): EJ Emery, 6’5 LHD, US NTDP
#23: NASHVILLE (TAMPA BAY): Aiden Park, 6’0 C/W, US HS
#24: NY RANGERS: Carson Wetsch, 6’3 RW, WHL
#25: ANAHEIM (BOSTON): Danill Ustinkov, 6’1 LHD, SWISS
#26: VEGAS: Adam Kleber, 6’5 RHD, USHL
#27: DALLAS: Linus Eriksson, 6’0 C, SWE
#28: EDMONTON: Nilopekka Muhonen, 6’4 LHD, FIN
#29: ST LOUIS (TORONTO): Alexander Zetterberg, 5’8 C, SWE
#30: NEW JERSEY: Maxim Velikov, 6’1 RW, RUS
#31: CAROLINA: Tij Iginla, 6’0 LW, WHL
#32: MONTREAL (COLORADO): Will Felicio, 5’11 LHD, USHL
1 – #17: Beckett Sennecke, 6’3 RW, OHL: A super high-skill, finesse forward with the potential to develop a power forward’s game and become a dynamic offensive player. Rail-thin (6’2 170#) with butter for hands, Sennecke is a high-octane, exciting offensive forward who can dangle you to death coming off the wall or in transition. Sennecke’s offensive instincts are the best attribute he’s got in his very deep toolbox. Has a great feel for spacing in the O-zone, gets to his spots ahead of the puck, and understands the value of getting the puck to the crease. Always open. Seems to be a step ahead of defenders, knows where he wants to go and how to get there. Innate ability to find teammates when the coverages shift or breakdown and excellent timing to get them the puck when they can do some damage. Skating is solid – he’s got pretty good top speed, and his excellent lateral movement helps him dance through the Neutral Zone, around defenders, and into the O-zone to create space for himself. But he could use more explosion in his arsenal. If he could go up another gear and get separation that way, he could become even more dangerous, especially in transition. Rifle of a shot. Good balance, and an excellent release to get the puck off his blade in a flash. His hands allow him to handle bouncing pucks or bad passes and shoot accurately without pausing to settle the puck. Excellent snapshot. Can get a puck upstairs with velocity and accuracy. Cleverly disguises his shots, smart enough to use defenders as screens but can get shots through with the best of them. Distributes the puck extremely well; he sends sauce over sticks and through crowds to open teammates across the ice. That spatial awareness helps him locate open space for himself and his linemates, and his reads are impeccable. Puts the puck where his teammates can go get it and skate into high-danger chances. Likes to carry the puck. His hands, edgework, and stickhandling make him a terror coming down in transition. Will make a lot of defenders look bad. Creative in how he avoids defenses, breaks coverages, or keeps the puck in the O-zone. Not afraid to go to the top of the crease, although he does seem inconsistent in his willingness to engage below the goal line or in the corners. Would rather wait outside of the puck battle to corral any loose puck that comes out, instead of getting his hands dirty in puck battles, which is not ideal. Sennecke’s defensive game needs a lot of work. He struggles in space and loses his guy; also is so eager to transition from defense to offense he can get caught blowing the zone and leaving his teammates in what amounts to a 5v4 situation. Needs to be heavier on pucks, more willing to match the intensity of his opposition when it comes to fighting for loose pucks. With his size, length and long stick, the kid should be a much better defender. We’ll see if this season brings a more complete game from him. Already the leading scorer on his improved Oshawa club with 5P in 4 games, he had a stellar rookie season in the OHL with 55P in 61 games. A player who could be a better skating Jason Robertson would be a nice addition to an already stuffed Sabres’ prospect pool.
2 – #17: Stian Solberg, 6’2 LHD, NWY: A Norwegian prospect? How novel! It’s true. Potentially the first Sabre to come from Norway. Reliable, athletic, physical blueliner with some offensive upside down the road. Getting a good read on Solberg is tough, to be fair. He declined to go play in Sweden – against a higher level of competition – to play in the Norwegian Men’s League. But Norway is now one of the teams in the U18 Worlds, so we’ll get to see him against top talent in the near future. From what I have seen, there’s a lot to like. First off, Solberg’s got very good size (6’2 195#). And that helps him at both ends. Understands how to protect the puck to avoid costly turnovers along the blue line. Long reach can be an asset but needs to use that length more consistently and with more purpose – particularly in his own end. Still, as he gets stronger and his technique develops, that should make him more formidable in his own end. And coupled with his smooth skating, he could become a very effective 2-way defender. Skating looks easy and poised, with good burst when coming out of a stop or changing direction. His footwork needs to get cleaned up – his feet can get tangled up when he needs to make a quick change of direction or adjust to a bad angle and players will leave him in the dust. But Solberg’s linear speed helps him pass defenders in the NZ when joining the rush, and he can effectively walk the blue line when running a PP, so his lateral movement – when he’s not rushed – is solid. He also mirrors very well; his gaps are tight, and even against men can be a tough on-puck defender. Can make some bad decisions when under pressure by forecheckers, or when closing on opponents from distance, but that can be remedied by coaching and a strong system. He also seems to revel in hitting; he’s not seeking big hits, but when they present themselves, he will lay the lumber with the best of them. Offensively, he’s a very strong puck carrier. Uses his skating and his handle to lead the rush and can beat opponents with one move – typically to the outside. Isn’t an overly fancy stickhandler, though. Prefers simple fakes, feints and moves to free himself up and allow him to get shots to the front of the net. There are some similarities to Ryan Johnson’s game – though he’s not as good a skater as RyJo, he has more offensive upside – and some untapped potential here. Only managed 1P in 8 games thus far for Valerenga in the Norwegian league, but he’s getting a regular shift in a senior Men’s League, not unlike Nikita Novikov, so there’s something to say for that.
3 – #17: Oskar Vuollet, 5’10 C/W, SWE: Dynamite offensive player with skill for days. We know the Kevyn Adams’ Sabres love their Swedes, but this would be their first from the Skelleftea system. Vuollet has some similarities to players like Benson and Rosen. Blessed with high-end hockey smarts, Vuollet has already gotten 7 games in the SHL despite his young age. Great offensive instincts, he’s puck dominant, controlling play through his possession of the puck. Always a danger when he enters the O-zone. A terror in transition, he is very difficult to stop one v one. Can embarrass a defender. Owns an arsenal of stickhandling moves and can turn a defender inside-out, knot them up like a pretzel, or just get them leaning one way before slipping past them in the opposite direction. Hands are soft as pillows. Makes difficult plays look easy. Can put pucks on a platter for teammates, or dangle his way through a crowd to the net front. Hands and feet move in unison and makes plays at high speeds. Skating is fantastic. Both linear and lateral, he can really move. But with his smarts, Vuollet recognizes the situation as he moves along the ice and can speed up, or downshift, depending on defenses and where his teammates are to maximize his advantage and create space. Can dance in either direction, evade checks, and beat players in a race down the ice. Explosive short-area quickness and burst. Escapability is high-level, although he can get stuck playing on the perimeter too often, and for too long a time, for my taste. That has to improve. Has a solid shot. Won’t scare anyone with its velocity or weight, but it’s accurate and deceptive. Uses it well without breaking stride, and can get a good, hard shot off at speed. Very high work rate. Vuollet hustles himself around the rink, not afraid to engage in puck battles anywhere on the ice. Works hard on the backcheck and likes to be the 2nd forward in on the forecheck where he can sit on exit passes and either deflect or intercept them with his fast footwork. In his own end, he can struggle, partly due to his size and partly thanks to his desire to get out of the D-zone and back on offense. When he drops to the top of the crease or behind the net he can get handled by bigger forwards and doesn’t always have a great sense of leverage as far as getting inside position on opponents. Has put up 13P in 12 games in the Swedish U-20 league, and his strong play there led to a promotion to the SHL (Sweden’s top league) where his coach has praised the young player despite not putting up a point in 7 games. He did, however, put up 2P in 4 games in the Champions League. Outside shot he makes Sweden’s U-18 World Championship team.