Simple Projections (Pt. 1 of 5)

As tempting as it is to write about the whole embarrassing fallout since the Miller-Lucic episode in Boston, this piece will steer clear of it and attempt to focus on the fact that we are about 1/5th of the way through the season. The statistics mentioned here are through till 11/15, and don’t take into consideration the Devils game. Averaging out the projected stats after 16 games (after the Bruins) and 17 games (after the Canadiens), we get what the approximate arithmetic projection would be for 82 games.

The disclaimer here of course is that this is purely mathematical, this kind of forecasting does not take into account injuries, players’ form, or a hundred other variables, but does give one a possible idea of trends and what we might be looking at come the end of the regular season. It is expected the extremities in either direction even out over the duration of the season.

Keep it here for the projected data after the jump, and apologies for the length of the post.

Lots of talking points and predictions out of this, starting with the offense.

The three players expected to carry the scoring load are at the top. Vanek is off to a blistering start; in previous seasons he has always finished the season strong, and if he keeps playing at the level he is he can easily emulate his 84-pt season from the ’06-’07 season. Pominville is a pleasant surprise and is finally living up to the expectations that his big paycheck come with. He hasn’t let the ‘C’ on his jersey affect his scoring and for once is actually getting the puck to the goal without the stick exploding in his hands. Roy started the season slow, but has 10 pts in the last seven games. A point-per-game pace is expected of him as well.

Adam’s top-line honeymoon seems to have ended, and he has only 2 pts in the last five tilts. Let that not take away from what he has done so far, and we can fully expect him to challenge for a top six spot all year long. Stafford seems on pace for a 50-pt year, when it was hoped he would finally make the jump to 60+ points. For Gerbe, 45+ points on the year seems quite feasible, and along with his feisty play increases his value to the squad. I also expect him to lead the Sabres in +/- come the end of the season – pound-for-pound, he might be the best checking-line forward in the League.

On the bust side of the coin are three prominent names – Leino, Ennis & Boyes. While I’m not ready to throw in the towel on the great Leino-for-center debate, just 20 points on the year would be very disappointing. Ennis’ injury skews the stats badly for him, and we can be sure that he will score more. The next forecast should paint a better picture. Boyes on the other hand is doing his best impression of Ales Kotalik, circa 2007 – invaluable in the shootout and good for 30-odd points.

On the defense, we seem to be getting what we expected out of Ehrhoff. Myers has had a down year so far, but broke the goal drought with a pair last night. He will need to improve quite a bit to beat the 48 points from his rookie year. Leopold has been the forgotten man on the blue line this year, but his offensive contributions should be in the 30-pt range as well. 30 points from Sekera would be a personal best, and an important contribution too. Gragnani would need to improve his play in the defensive end to ensure he gets more games, and he is also on pace for 30-odd points on the year.

Finally, another table that projects goals for, goals against and total points for the team as a whole, compared to the previous two seasons the Sabres made the playoffs.