Game #15
Buffalo Sabres (7-6-1) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6-6-0)
Puck Drop: 7:30 PM EST, PPG Paints Arena Pittsburgh, PA
TV: MSG-B, Sportsnet Pittsburgh
Radio: WGR-550
Know Your Opponent
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 6-6-0
Last Game: 4-3 win against the L.A. Kings (OT)
Division Ranking: 7th in the Metropolitan Division
PP: 22nd (17.14%)
PK: 12th (82.50%)
1) Sabres Need to Step Up Against Rested Penguins at Home
The Pittsburgh Penguins are a team that often has Buffalo’s number. The Blue and Gold haven’t beaten the Pens since 11/2/2022, a 6-3 victory at KeyBank Center. The last time Buffalo prevailed against Pittsburgh in the Steel City was even longer, most recently on 11/6/2021.
The Sabres have the added disadvantage of playing the second matchup of a back-to-back, while the hosts are rested after meeting the L.A. Kings two days earlier. Rested teams who are the favorites won against gassed opponents 62% of the time since 2005, according to Josh Appelbaum of Visn.com.
When a rested team is coming off a loss and a tired team just enjoyed a victory, the rested unit has extra motivation to win. Fortunately for Buffalo, Pittsburgh won in OT versus the Kings. However, the Pens are still the favorites and the visitors will need to play their best 60 minutes of hockey to beat the stats and the hosts.
2) Tuch Back to Health Facing Injured Pens’ D?
The Sabres suffered some major injuries recently, with forwards Alex Tuch and Brandon Biro and defenseman Mattias Samuelsson out until at least the day of the game against the Pens. Of these players, Tuch is day-to-day. While he wasn’t on the lineup this afternoon, it’s possible head coach Don Granato plays him tonight in a surprise last-minute addition.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is down two defensemen, John Ludvig and Will Butcher, who are on IR until Nov. 19 and 14, respectively. The Sabres could use their fast forwards to wear down the Penguins’ depleted defense. Injuries make a difference and Buffalo needs any advantage against a tough opponent that’s given the Blue and Gold so much trouble over the years.
3) Sabres the Betting Underdogs
Shane Mickle of Pick Dawgz.com echoed the stat Appelbaum cited about favorites besting opponents on the second game of a back-to-back. Pointing to Buffalo’s tired legs after last night’s matchup and its 16th ranked offense, Mickle believes the Pens, with their 9th ranked offense and recent victory at L.A., will prevail in this contest.
A hockey Nostradamus, Mickle predicts the hosts will score at least five goals in this meeting and the visitors only one or two, reaching the 7 Over/Under. If you feel Mickle’s prognostication is faulty, bet on the underdog Sabres and get a huge payout if they pull off an upset win.
Projected Lineups
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards
Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Dylan Cozens
Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – JJ Peterka
Victor Olofsson – Peyton Krebs – Matthew Savoie
Zemgus Girgensons – Tyson Jost – Kyle Okposo
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin – Ryan Johnson
Owen Power – Henri Jokiharju
Connor Clifton – Erik Johnson
Goaltenders
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely), Devon Levi
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forwards
Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Reilly Smith – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Drew O’Connor – Lars Eller – Radim Zohorna
Matthew Nieto – Noel Acciari – Jeff Carter
Defense
Ryan Graves – Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Ryan Shea – Chad Ruhwedel
Goaltenders
Tristan Jarry (confirmed), Magnus Hellberg, Joel Blomvquist