This is a FanPost written by CNY_NAVYLCDR
Quick Briefs and Retorts
So on Saturday, Gary Bettman held his annual NHL State of the Union news conference. He addressed a wide area of topics that I felt needed to be highlighted. (Note, all quotes are from Pierre Lebrun’s column on The Athletic regarding the SoU News Conference.)
Coyotes Situation
Outside the march to the cup, no topic has seemingly had greater discussion surrounding it than the ongoing situation with the Yotes. Bettman seemingly (and begrudgingly) seems to be giving it a halfhearted attempt to keep them in the Phoenix area: “The Arizona Coyotes are going to explore what their other options are in the greater Phoenix area, and we’re going to monitor that closely,” Bettman said. “Our hope is that one of the options that are being explored and considered will come to fruition.” That said, Bill Daly echoed what most fans are thinking: “There has to be a resolution, and it has to be in the relative near term,” Daly said. “What I will say is that it’s not as if the team is starting off from scratch. Obviously, the Meruelo ownership group did a lot of due diligence in coming up with their Tempe plan, so they’re aware of what their potential options are in the Valley, and they are cultivating through those options. But obviously there is a ticking clock, for sure, in terms of finding a resolution.” It seems that the league is finally getting to grips with that this just isn’t going to work. Owners are seemingly putting pressure on the league to quit stealing from their shared revenue with this bad situation. Now there seemingly has always been issues in the desert, but with the Yotes playing in the 5K seat Mullet Arena, they’re losing so much more than the past. Complicating this is the fact that players will seemingly eschew going to the desert at this point. Reports have been coming out of lead players sitting down with management and discussing what the future is. And truthfully, they absolutely have a right to demand insight to what the plan is, in light of the failed referendums. The PA will be hounding the league with a solution, as it will be a drain on the league, and no player will want to sign with their home rink constantly in limbo. Navy’s Prediction: Owners and the PA will push for a hard decision by the trade deadline this next season. If no solution to keep them in the Phoenix area is reached, I’d look for a relocation for the 2025-2026 season. SLC will be the primary relocation spot, as you have a willing (and established) sports owner, and the impending Olympic bid will help to create a new arena in short order. HOU is a fallback with KC a distant 3rd, but I would see HOU as a future expansion site vice relocation. Which leads us to topic 2….
Expansion
Granted the relocation of ARZ has been at or right near the top of the media que for topics, an interesting underlying question is expansion. With the runaway success of Vegas and Seattle stepping up significantly in Year 2, and the impending $1B sale of the Sens still looming (more on that next), it seems the question is arising for these potential ARZ relocation sites, well if they lose on the Yotes, do they get a team eventually? As I said above, SLC seems like the prime spot for an ARZ relocation if (i.e. when) they cannot come up with a quick plan to start construction around ARZ. Given the issues the current ARZ group had in Gila River Arena, and the vitriol it caused in the anti-Tempe campaign, I’d say the relocation announcement occurs by next year’s draft. What happens with the other bidders will seemingly come to 2 more expansion sites. I mean, when you’re looking at groups now buying NHL teams for a BILLION dollars, and the rapidly growing expansion fees ($650M for Seattle) that go solely into the owners’ coffers, why wouldn’t they? “But the good news is there are a lot of people who are interested in owning NHL franchises in a lot of different markets,” Daly said. “I certainly don’t think the NHL player pool or supply is a concern for us or a dilution of the product. … What our owners look at when looking at expansion is ‘Does adding a club add to the overall value of the league?’ That is their equation, and that’s the equation we’ll apply moving forward.” Yes, the move will unfortunately create another imbalance among divisions in each conference, but I would certainly see a team be added in each conference. But there isn’t much of a worry of diluting talent too much with an additional 2 teams, especially if the rules applied to VGK and SEA carry over. Navy’s Prediction: Given the assumption the Yotes move up to SLC, I would bet HOU and ATL (yes, third time hopefully the charm) will be the expansion sites. HOU has a potential owner in place, and has supported hockey in the past. A HOU team would also make a good close rival to DAL, and keep a team in the West, most likely falling into the Central division. ATL seems to once again wish to bring a team to town. The MASSIVE caveat for any team going to ATL is a new arena in the northern suburbs, and a good stable ownership. No downtown arena (one of the few places they’d be adamant it wouldn’t be there), no half in ownership group like Spirit during the second run. If Gary has to give up his precious ARZ, I could see him making the ATL team his new pet project, just hopefully with a better result. And if one is asking, WhAt AbOuT qUeBeC cItY?!?! This point has been addressed ad nauseum over the years. Too small an area, no real corporate sponsorship, Quebec already has a team in Montreal, Canadian vs US dollar, etc. Hamilton, another oft raised site, would be absolutely torpedoed by the Laffs. Though, personally, I’d think Hamilton may be a better option, certainly between the two.
Coyotes Situation
The auction that seemingly has no end date is still marching on. With the two likely winners being minority owners in other professional teams, it is getting to the comical point for how long this process is going on. That said, a Billion dollar sale is not quick and easy, and given the FUBAR ARZ tale, being super duper extra positive on the ownership group being good is understandable. Factoring in also has to be the home of the Sens in the future. Is the LeBreton Flats still in play? Will another site need to come into the picture? How long will they stay in their current barn? Bettman said: “I know there’s been a lot of speculation about the process and how long it takes. I think there’s probably two reasons for that. One, I think there needs to be a recognition that buying a billion-dollar asset isn’t the same as buying a new car. It takes a little more diligence and work to do it. And I also think most times when franchises are being sold, you don’t know about it until it gets to the end. I think Eugene Melnyk’s untimely passing sort of began the clock running, and I think that’s why at least in some quarters there seems to be fatigue covering this. But there shouldn’t be. The process, run by Mr. Galatioto, has been done well and right.” Navy’s Prediction: One of the two primary bidders will win, and it will come down to an agreement with the LeBreton Flats group agreeing to move forward with the new ownership group. I’m just sad we won’t get a Netflix show with Ryan Reynolds titled Oi’ from Ottawa to go along with it. (In all seriousness, if you haven’t seen the Welcome to Wrexham show, it’s worth your time)
Controversial Crumbs (some touchier issues)
Hockey Canada Investigation
It’s in the final stages (i.e. writing up the findings) and should be out sometime this summer. “My understanding is our independent investigator has completed their work and are in the process of preparing a report that we expect sometime early (in the) summer, which we then will have to obviously review to see kind of where we are,” Daly said. “We have been in contact with the London police and continue to want to be in contact with them, make sure that there’s visibility with respect to what our process is and to the extent we can understand (what) theirs is — that would be the goal. And then I can’t prejudge what happens from there.” Navy’s Predicition: This is going to be ugly for Hockey Canada, and real ugly for a small group of players. I expect potential legal, and certainly civil, cases coming out of this. Whether the league suspends the players or not, we shall see.
Salary Cap
Only up $1M this next season, and it isn’t going to change. Changing the amount will require escrow changes, and the NHLPA is vehemently against that. “I think it’s safe to say we’re going to live with the agreement as it was last negotiated, and it is what it is. But having said that, I think it’s overwhelmingly likely the following season we go to a more normal cap increase.” “The issue is we’re not going to change the escrow (rates),” Walsh said. “These players over the last several years have paid high escrow. The dept (from the low-revenue pandemic years) is nearly paid off. … Once we see what’s there (in the final revenue numbers for this season), then you’ll have a real number owed on the debt. And that’s a conversation, and we’ll probably talk about that. But as it stands today, it looks like (a) $1 million (raise on the cap).” Navy’s Prediction: Status quo, but foreshadowing on a bloody labor fight to remove, or at a minimum, drastically reduce potential future escrow issues. We are only a few years away from the deal expiring, and I just hope we avoid a lockout (again). But if there is a lockout, what does that say about Bettman and his legacy?
Kyle Beach Fallout Continued
With rumors circulating about Coach Q possibly in line for the coaching job with the Rags, the status of he and Stan Bowman were asked. Bettman at least here gave a succinct response. ‘Bettman confirmed that former Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville and general manager Stan Bowman have independently requested meetings with him to get reinstated in the NHL. Bettman told each he would try to schedule something after the Final. “They’re currently not eligible,” Bettman said.’ Navy’s Prediction: A meeting will occur with both in the offseason. NYC media will hop on the news and will overall skewer the Rags and the league for even thinking about bringing in Coach Q. Quenneville won’t get the job with the Rangers, but will be placed on a “re-education program” and be eligible for jobs in the 24-25 season. Bowman won’t be allowed back into the league.
Conclusion
There were a few other minor bits talked about i.e. World Cup of Hockey (trying but we will see), No Stanley Cup in Russia (duh), and the Val Nichushkin incident (handled), but nothing worth going into depth on. Let me know what you all think on these, especially the 3 main parts of the Yotes, Expansion, and the Sens Sale.