This is a FanPost written by Don52
As Buffalo approaches the 2023 NHL Entry Draft they do so with different expectations then they have the last several years. This is now a team that expects to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs and is officially out of the rebuilding mode. So how will that change the mindset of the franchise? Will it change it all?
In this piece I wanted to look at Buffalo’s organizational depth and how Buffalo’s eight draft picks could affect the future of the franchise.
Where the Roster Stands
As of now, I’m expecting Tyson Jost to be back and Victor Oloffson to be dealt. That leaves Buffalo with one open roster spot up front as we enter the offseason. Defensively and in net Buffalo has everyone coming back. It’s been well documented it wouldn’t be hard for Buffalo to upgrade at either spot if they desire.
The biggest decision Buffalo will have to make is if they would trade pick 13 to make an improvement to the roster. Buffalo is going to get a quality prospect at 13, it most likely won’t be a player who will help in the next two years however. If Buffalo was to move pick 13 it’s most likely for a top 4 defenseman that has multiple years on their contract or could be extended following a trade. The problem, the reported price on top 4 defenseman is through the roof. A trade for a forward would be unlikely at this point with Kulich and Savoie looking NHL ready sooner than later. Rousek and Rosen are also on the cusp of making the NHL, although they are likely a year away.
Trading 13 for a goalie also seems unlikely, Adams has consistently spoken highly of Levi and Lukkonnen. Along with the premium pick Buffalo would trade they’d also have to shell out a big contract. While Buffalo does have cap space at the moment it will continue to get smaller as their young core receives extensions. If Buffalo traded 13 it would be the first time Kevyn Adams has made a deal to accelerate the timeline.
There’s certainly an argument for doing so, Buffalo doesn’t have many holes to fill and does have a deep prospect pool. However, I don’t see trading 13 likely for a couple reasons. As I stated earlier, I don’t believe Adams is looking to add another large contract to the roster right now. Power and Dahlin will likely be extended this off season. We also don’t know what contracts for Mittlestadt, Peterka, and Quinn will look like following this season.
I believe Adams is committed to keeping his young players and doesn’t want to put himself in a position where he can’t pay one. The second reason would be the asset cost it would take to land a top 4 defenseman. Brett Pesce is at the top of the wish list for a lot of teams if Carolina decides they can’t afford him. Buffalo could use the 13th pick as the centerpiece of the deal but will likely need to add more if they’re looking to outbid other teams.
The NHL is a copycat league and there will be plenty of teams looking to add big mobile defenseman like Vegas has. If I were Kevyn Adams, I would continue to bolster my pipeline and not make a big splash at the draft if the prices remain high.
Pipeline
At forward Buffalo added Savoie, Ostlund, and Kulich in the 1st round last year. Savoie and Kulich will compete for a roster spot this year while Ostlund will need another year or two before he can realistically make the roster. Other recent draft picks Isak Rosen (1st Round ‘21) and Lukas Rousek(6th Round ‘19) had strong seasons in Rochester and could also push for NHL team in the near future. Viktor Neuchev (3rd Round ‘22) Prokhor Poltapov (2nd Round ‘21) and Alexander Kisakov (2nd Round ‘21) are three skilled Russians who could make a roster push in the next two to three years.
Kisakov will be looking for a strong second year after a slow rookie season in Rochester. Neuchev will also need time to acclimate to the North American game in his first year here similar to Kisakov. Poltapov is playing in the KHL and could be making a roster push sooner than later if he continues to build off his last season in Russia.
The Sabres also have Tyson Kozak and Oliver Nadeau as late round finds in recent drafts that could push for NHL time down the road. Defensively, Buffalo is much more thin then they are up front. Signing Ryan Johnson (1st Round ‘19) and Nikita Novikov (6th Round ‘21) this offseason helps a lot. Both players weren’t guaranteed to be joining the organization.
Buffalo also signed Vsevolod Komarov (5th Round ’22) to give Rochester and Buffalo some much needed depth on the back end. Mats Lindgren (4th Round ‘22) is the only other player in the organization who could provide depth down the road, but he’ll need to bounce back after an up and down post draft year. In goal there is a lack of depth as well.
Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will most likely be the goalie tandem in Buffalo this year, leaving Rochester with veterans to man the net this upcoming season. The only prospect Buffalo will have (once Levi loses prospect status) is Topis Leinonen 2nd Round ‘22). Goalies typically have a long development path and Leinonen will be no different. In fact, his path looks like it could be longer after a poor post draft year.
So while Buffalo does have a talented prospect pool it’s not necessarily deep outside of forwards. Part of this is because they’ve graduated draft picks to the big club. The other part is drafting forwards very heavily since Adams has been hired. In the last three drafts Buffalo has taken 21 forwards, 5 defenseman, and 1 goalie.
How to Approach the Draft
Similar to my beliefs last year, I believe Buffalo should use all of their picks and add eight more players to the organization. While it is tempting to trade one of the high picks to solidify the roster and increase the chances of making the playoffs. I believe the best course of action is to continue to add depth to the organization via the draft and not ship out a premium pick.
A trade I would prefer is a trade down from 13 depending on how the first 12 picks go. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, and Michcov are guaranteed to be gone by the time Buffalo picks. After that group my wish list would consist of Benson, Dvorsky, Danielson, Reinbacher, Moore, or Leonard. After those 11 players I believe there is a drop off in talent and Buffalo would be better off trading back.
My goal would be to stay in the top 20 and to acquire another second round pick. This is a very deep draft and I believe the value of gaining an extra player in round 2 would outweigh staying at 13 to take a similar player you could get at 18-20. If my top 11 players are gone and Buffalo can’t trade out of pick 13 I believe Buffalo finds themselves in a tough position.
On one hand Buffalo needs defenseman, especially right handed defenseman. Tom Wallinander and Axel Sandlin-Pelikka are quality prospects and would fill a major need. However, I believe you can’t reach in the first two rounds of the draft and need to take the best player available. For me, the two next players on my board would be Dimitri Shimishev and Gabe Perreault. Shimishev would give Buffalo a big mobile defenseman who has top 4 potential on the left side. At the very worst, I believe he’s an excellent bottom pairing defenseman.
Perreault would give Buffalo another forward who has high end skill and could develop into a top 6 forward. His size and skating could keep him from reaching that potential. Perreault would also add to the redundancy in Buffalos system with the smaller skilled forwards they’ve added recently.
In the second round I believe Buffalo needs to stick to their board and take the best player available. It could result in Buffalo’s first three picks being forwards again, but the talent that will be available at the top of round 2 is too high to deviate from the board.
Starting in round 3 I believe Buffalo needs to start looking towards defense if they can’t land one or two defenseman with the first three picks. Normally, I would never advocate to reach on a position and take a lesser player. But as I mentioned earlier, the pipeline depth is very forward heavy and is already in a spot where players will be blocked in the coming years.
Defenseman are at a premium in the NHL and I’m getting the sense the price has skyrocketed for acquiring one. Even in a prospect trade, Buffalo would probably have to give up a better forward(s) to acquire a quality defense prospect. So Kevyn Adams has a decision to make, reach a little on a player now or overpay for one on a trade later.
Lastly, Buffalo needs to make it a priority to acquire another goalie in the draft. I have no preference what round it takes place, but Buffalo needs to start adding options in the organization outside of Leinonen in the system. Overall Buffalo is in a great spot and has the potential to solidify an already strong system. While the temptation is there to make moves to end the drought, patience could lead to a deep cup contending team in the near future.