Game #60
Buffalo Sabres (27-28-4) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (32-24-5)
Puck Drop: 7:00 PM EST, Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, Florida
TV: MSG-B
Radio: WGR-550
Know Your Opponent
Tampa Bay Lightning
Record: 32-24-5
Last Game: 6-2 Loss vs. the Philadelphia Flyers
Division Ranking: 5th, Atlantic
PP: 29%, 2nd
PK: 80.7%, 13th
What to Watch
- Need All 4 Forward Lines Rolling
One of the key differences between the Tampa Bay of the past and their current roster is their depth. While their top 6 forward group is still elite, their bottom 6 forwards do not resemble what was once there. This presents opportunities for opponents to expose them when their top players are not on the ice. While the Sabres have not had the season they expected out of their top performers (especially compared to last season), their offensive depth is something that has been a contributor. Tonight, it has the potential to influence the outcome of the game.
From a tactical standpoint, the Lightning will have the last change. This means that Granato will not have as much control of the matchups. As a result, the Sabres should focus more heavily on rolling all 4 lines. By rolling their lines, they can get greater mismatches than Tampa Bay.
- Stay Out Of The Box
It’s a pretty simple strategy. Stay out of the box. Tampa Bay has been lethal on the man advantage this season. They score almost 1 out of every 3 powerplays. According to statmuse.com, the Sabres have taken 201 minor penalties this season, resulting in an average of 3.4 penalties per game. If the Sabres were to keep this pace up against the Lightning tonight, they’re likely to give up at least 1 powerplay goal, especially considering their penalty kill has not been particularly strong.
In the Sabres’ last 4 games against Tampa, they have gone 3-1. Unsurprisingly, their powerplay goals against during these 4 games were 2. Given this pattern, there is historical evidence that if you shut down the Lightning’s powerplay, particularly since their offensive depth has taken a dip, they are more likely to struggle to produce offensively.
- Keeping The Eastern Playoffs Murky
The Sabres have the potential to heavily impact the Eastern Conference, especially the Atlantic Division, tonight. While a win tonight does bring their playoff odds up 1.7% to 4.1% with a regulation win, the effects for the Lightning are even greater. If the Tampa Bay Lightning lose in regulation versus the Sabres, their playoff odds drop a total of 8.7%. While they would still be very much in the playoff picture, Tampa has fallen into the 2nd Wild Card Spot in the East, with teams such as the New Jersey Devils, Washington Capitals, and Pittsburgh Penguins not too far off from challenging them. Moreover, all of the aforementioned teams have games in hand on the lightning.
The impact that this could have on the Sabres tonight is to act as dream killers for a fragile opponent. While playoffs may not be in the cards for the Sabres this season, a new motivation could arise. Of course, finishing the season with wins and the promise of moving in the right direction is essential. The extra sweetener of acting as the villains to teams such as the Lightning, who are in desperate need of 2 points, could serve as an extra spark for tonight’s game.
Projected Lines
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards
Skinner – Thompson – Tuch
Greenway – Mittlestadt – Cozens
Benson – Krebs – Peterka
Robinson – Girgensons – Okposo
Defence
Dahlin – Jokiharju
Power – R. Johnson
Bryson – Clifton
Projected Starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
* Erik Johnson is still dealing with an illness. The Sabres also recalled Dustin Tokarski, giving them a third goaltender to have on hand as the team is dealing with a flu bug.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forwards
Hagel – Point – Kucherov
Stamkos – Paul – Sheary
Eyssimont – Cirelli – Chaffee
Crozier – Glendening – Motte
Defence
Hedman – Raddysh
De Haan – Cernak
Martinsen-Lilleberg – Perbix
Projected Starter: Andrei Vasilevskiy