Game Info

Buffalo Sabres (14-17-3) vs. New York Rangers (22-8-1)

Puck Drop: 7:30 PM EST | New York, NY

TV: MSG

Radio: WGR-550

Know Your Opponent

New York Rangers 

Record: 22-8-1

Last Game: 4-3 loss to the Edmonton Oilers

Division Ranking: 1st, Metropolitan 

PP: 1st, 31.3%

PK: 5th, 85.6%

What to Watch

1. 5v5 Is the Key to Success

The Rangers are a team that looks amazing on paper. They have big-name players that have the potential to take over a game at any time. And yet, at 5v5, they are a very average team. They rank 7th last in the NHL for goals for at-even strength, while also having a -4 goal differential. This suggests that while their record is dominant, their play for most of the game doesn’t hold up. Instead, they take advantage on their power play. They currently rank 7th in the NHL for goals at 5 on 4. With players like Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox and Kreider, they have the firepower to be just OK at 5 on 5 and still pull out wins by dominating the special teams. The Rangers also boast a strong penalty kill, which prevents any leaks from occurring if their play at 5v5 is subpar. 

What this means for the Sabres is that they will have to dominate the game at 5v5 in order to have a shot at beating the Rangers, even more so than usual. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Sabres won 5-1, with all 5 goals coming at even strength. Another performance like this will be necessary to get 2 points again the specialists on the Rangers. 

2. Finding a Way to Beat Shesterkin

The last time the Sabres and Rangers played, the Sabres managed to put 4 behind Igor Shesterkin. Since then, his play has been up and down, but his last 2 performances should be worrisome for the Sabres. Finally finding his rhythm, Shesterkin has posted 0.955 and 0.939 save percentages in his last 2 outings, suggesting that the Vezina winner is returning to his usual form. Another cause for concern is his history of success against the Sabres. According to statmuse.com, in his last 10 games, Shesterkin has gone 7-1-2 with a 0.937 save percentage and a 1.88 GAA. It appears that he steps up his game during performances against in-state games. 

Beating Shesterkin is not as simple as some other goalies. Most of the time, goalies have one particular area of weakness. For example, they let out a lot of rebounds, or they have trouble with shots from the point, etc. This season, however, Shesterkin is posting numbers that demonstrate an all-around ability to stop the puck. He appears to be top 10-15 in almost every advanced analytics. But after researching individual performances where he did not play well, I found that a pattern emerged. When Shesterkin is off his game, low-danger shots (from the point or the outside) tend to go through him more easily. While these games are not consistent, they show every now and again. Given this small but realistic pattern, the Sabres should focus on shooting from the point and making their way to the front of the net to make Shesterkin’s life miserable. 

3. Consistency is Key

 It has been an up-and-down season for the Sabres. Of late, they have gone 3-3-0 in their last 6. This lack of consistency is highlighted by the last two games they have played, losing 9-4 to the Colombus Blue Jackets, and then winning 9-3 over the Toronto Maple Leafs. While the resilience shown from their performance after a blowout game is exemplary, finding ways to get up for games like they did against the Leafs needs to occur on a more regular basis. The Sabres’ longest winning streak is 2 games this season, showcasing the inconsistency that has encompassed their performances. In order to have a chance at making the playoffs, building upon strong performances like the game against the Leafs will be the end-all-be-all for this team. 

While looking to build this consistency, this game has more significance than usual. The Sabres currently sit at a 14.4% chance of making the playoffs. With a win tonight, their playoff percentage would grow by 2.6% to 17%. But if they lose, they fall another 2.4% to an 11.9% chance of making playoffs. While these odds aren’t significant for one game, this demonstrates the value that each game has for the Sabres now. They have put themselves in a hole and must be near perfect to dig themselves out of it. Getting a second win before the holiday break is just what the Sabres need to end out a 2023 calendar year filled with a roller coaster of emotions. 

Projected Lineups

Buffalo Sabres

Forwards

Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch

JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn

Jordan Greenway – Casey Mittelstadt – Zach Benson

Victor Olofsson – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo

Defense

Rasmus Dahlin – Mattias Samuelsson

Owen Power – Connor Clifton

Ryan Johnson – Henri Jokiharju

Projected Starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

New York Rangers

Forwards

Chris Kreider – Mika Zibenejad – Blake Wheeler 

Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafrenière

Will Cuylle – Nick Bonnino – Jonny Brodzinski

Jimmy Vesey – Barclay Goodrow – Tyler Pitlick

Defense 

Ryan Lindgren – Adam Fox 

K’Andre Miller – Jacob Trouba 

Erik Gustafsson – Braden Schneider 

Projected Starter: Igor Shesterkin