Game #23
Buffalo Sabres (10-10-2) vs. St Louis Blues (11-9-1)
Puck Drop: 8:00 p.m. EST | Enterprise Center | St Louis, MO
TV: MSG
Radio: WGR 550
Know Your Opponent
St. Louis Blues
Record: 11-9-1
Last Game: 3-1 loss to the Minnesota Wild
Division Ranking: 4th, Central
PP: 30th, 9.23%
PK: 18th, 79.25%
What to Watch
1. 5v5 Battle
In order to get a W on the second to last game of this long road trip for the Sabres, they will have to battle it out against a team that is finding much of their success at 5v5. In fact, both Buffalo and St. Louis are teams that have played better at even strength than on the man advantage this year. With the Sabres executing at a 15.9% success rate on the power play and the Blues with an abysmal 9.2% success rate, both teams are going to have to generate their offense with full benches. Even more so for the Sabres, as St. Louis is the least penalized team in the NHL, averaging 5.5 penalty minutes per game.
From a tactical perspective, this makes Buffalo’s defensive play even more important. According to moneypuck.com, the Sabres have allowed the 3rd most medium-danger chances against with 156 for an average of 7 per game. These chances are in the upper area of the slot and just beyond the hashmarks. In the visual below, the yellow area represents the medium danger chances.
Coincidentally, the Blues rank 7th in the NHL in medium-danger chances for with 136. Considering one team lets up a lot of these chances and the other plays a game that is conducive to creating a lot of chances in that exact same spot, the Sabres are going to have to tighten up their play at 5v5 to get the result they want.
2. Better Shooting
There have been a few games early in the season where it felt like the Sabres were doing everything right, but when the golden opportunity presented itself, the puck would just not hit the net. If you thought that as well, there are statistics that back up that statement. The Sabres have missed the net on 31% of their unblocked shots. Based on their play, this is 4.14% higher than expected. While that may not seem like much, that 4.14% means 26 more shots. The 26 more shots combined with the Sabres’ weighted shooting average of 10.27% means 3 more goals this season. Those 3 goals could be the deciding factor in some of the close games holding the Sabres back from being above .500.
But, once they do hit the net, the Sabres perform very well. They are ranked 8th in shooting % on shots on goal via moneypuck.com, indicating that when they actually hit the net, Buffalo has very good shooters. Considering that the Blues have allowed the third most shots against in the NHL, the Sabres need to take advantage. Starting with a focus on hitting the net, combined with a consistent shooting percentage and a team that allows a lot of shots against, the Sabres have an opportunity to do some damage against the Blues.
3. Figuring Out Face-offs
The face-off circle has not been the friend of the Buffalo Sabres. Throughout the first quarter of the season, only Zemgus Girgensons has had a face-off percentage above 50%, with Dylan Cozens trailing as the second best face-off man at 49.4%. Beyond these two, there is not a regular center that is above the 45% mark, including Tage Thompson. This is highlighted by Casey Mittelstadt at 43.7% and Tyson Jost at 34.8%.
As a result of these face-off struggles, the Sabres have had to depend on Girgensons for defensive zone draws, causing a lot of strain on the rotation and matchups for Don Granato. It also does not help the power play, as this is not Girgenson’s typical role. Consequently, they lose a lot of possession time due to pucks being cleared off the draw. Tonight, against a St. Louis team where their top 3 centers have a face-off percentage of 59.2%, 57.4%, and 50.8%, the Sabres will have their hands full. With Girgensons out of the lineup, someone will need to step up to battle the skilled face-off veterans on the other side of the ice.
Projected Lineups
Buffalo Sabres
Forwards
Jeff Skinner – Casey Mittelstadt – Alex Tuch
Zach Benson – Dylan Cozens – JJ Peterka
Isak Rosén – Tyson Jost – Victor Olofsson
Jordan Greenway – Peyton Krebs – Kyle Okposo
Defense
Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin
Owen Power – Ryan Johnson
Connor Clifton – Erik Johnson
Goaltenders: Erik Comrie (likely starter) Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
St. Louis Blues
Forwards
Pavel Buchnevich – Robert Thomas- Jake Neighbours
Kasperi Kapanen – Schenn – Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Saad – Kevin Hayes – Jakub Vrana
Alexey Toropchenko – Oskar Sundqvist – Sammy Blais
Defense
Nick Leddy – Colton Parayko
Torey Krug- Justin Faulk
Marco Scandella – Scott Perunovich
Goaltenders: Joel Hofer (likely starter), Jordan Binnington
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