This is a FanPost written by Matt in Cleveland
So with my initial GM for a day regarding Winnipeg, Philly and the goaltenders, I was more or less just having some fun with less realistic scenarios. This is not your typical GM for a day. I am focusing on more practical scenarios for the offseason, and taking us out of fantasy land, which to be honest, isn’t as much fun. But, I plan on discussing my favorite ideas for the Sabres upcoming offseason.
So to start, there are a couple objectives I would like to obtain, a top four defenseman, get a little tougher to play against, obtain a sound two-way forward for the bottom six, and look for a goaltending upgrade. I’m also more of the belief that I want to retain as much draft capital as possible. I do want to see the team improve, and spend a little money and draft capital to do it, but I also want to continue to build up the depth of the organization on the farm. I don’t feel now is the time to start spending multiple first round picks to acquire players.
So first, I wanted to talk about the goalies, and I wanted to start with the polarizing John Gibson.
A Discussion About John Gibson
That brings me to trade #1. To Buffalo: John Gibson To Anaheim: Pick 13, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, 2024 second
Why does it make sense? It doesn’t, I’m totally kidding. Sorry for a late April fools joke.
But, in all seriousness, I did want to chat a little about John Gibson. Gibson is a very interesting and polarizing player to talk about. And he is also an interesting case to look at, and will continue to be an interesting case to discuss, mainly because, we don’t see a lot of workhorse number one goaltenders stick around on bad teams for a long time, but he signed his deal right around the time they started getting bad. He’s 61-102-31 since he 2019-20 season when his extension kicked in.
So let me just say, I am not interested in Gibson for four more years at 6.4 million. If they retained 30-40%, and we got him for cheap, I’d be interested, very interested actually. I have Gibson at his full salary as a negative asset, that’s just my opinion, and I could be wrong. Anaheim is going to have to retain a significant salary to offload his contract, and get any kind of value for him. Kind of like the Matt Murray deal, but not quite to the point where Anaheim will have to send capital to get rid of him because Gibson still clearly functions as a #1 goaltender, and availability is not an issue.
With Matt Murray, injuries piled up, and availability was an issue, and he hasn’t worked as a true #1 for quite some dime. I think he’s going to Pittsburgh at the end of the day, and this has Kyle Dubas written all over it, and at the end of the day, he has a no-trade clause to boot, and will have some say on where he goes.
Shayna Goldman from the Athletic was on the Sabres Live with Marty Biron and Brian Duff a few days ago and she was talking about John Gibson, and to be honest, it really got me thinking about it a little differently for the offseason. The case she made for John Gibson to any team, not just the Sabres, was very interesting to me, because she brought up something significant: duress.
How does a goaltender perform under duress, because as Al Pacino once said in the movie Devil’s Advocate to Keanu Reeves, “pressure, changes everything”. I would gladly take him at 50% retained (3.2 million), and paying nothing more than a second. He has four years left, but, if you need to, if you can make it three years with Gibson, you can buyout his final year at a very manageable cap hit.
You have a sound sample size with over 430 games played, however, a lot of his more advanced stats have been in the bottom third of the league, again, which may not be all his fault. He had the second highest expected goals against in the league, with a slightly below average, -2.31 GSAx, which is one of my personal favorite stats to look at because it looks at the quality of shots the goaltender faces, levels the playing field on good defensive teams and bad defensive teams and looks at how many goals were saved above the shot quality he faced.
If there was a strength in his game, he did however have a .737% high danger save percentage on unblocked shots, which was good for 17th in the league among goalies with a minimum 30 starts, on the worst defensive team in hockey. By comparison UPL was 30th. In 2021-22, he was 1st in the league in this category. Gibson struggled in this category in 2020-21 in the lockout shortened season, but he was 29th out of 45th, and in 2018-19 he was 16th out of 48th. Getting back to his GSAx, he was a +26.9 in 2018-19, which was the last year before Anaheim went in the toilet.
If you remember around five years ago, the Ducks had one of the most talented defense groups in the league with: Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Montour, Cam Fowler, and Josh Manson. From 2015-2018, Gibson’s first three years as a 30+ game starter. He took over the full workload once Frederick Andersen was moved.
The Ducks were top four overall in goals allowed. Once that defense group was slowly broken up at the 2019 trade deadline and beyond when Montour was moved to Buffalo, and key veteran players up front started aging out, things got a lot tougher for Gibby. His numbers took a hit in the succeeding years: -9.92 in 2019-20, -3.94 in 2020-21, -4.36 from 2021-22, and -2.31 GSAx from 2022-23.
I would be very interested in John Gibson, but to be honest, Anaheim is going to have to retain half his contract to get rid of him and get value for him. His no-trade clause is also a major barrier since he will have some say in where he goes.
Regardless of everything I’ve said, I will admit, you can try to explain why something might be happening, but at the end of the day, it still happened. Gibson has been on a poor team, with a poor record, and has a bad contract. But I do like the experience, especially under duress, and the availability to work as a number one.
A potential trade that I would consider would be: To Anaheim: 2023 second round pick, **conditional 2024 or 2025 second or third. To Buffalo: G John Gibson (40% retained, 3.84m cap hit) That’s the absolute most I would be comfortable doing, and by no means would I remotely consider anything resembling a first round pick, and to be honest, I would be stunned if he returns one for Anaheim, even with a retention.
I do not think Anaheim has a lot of leverage here. My prediction however, is that he ends up with the Penguins, and my suspicion is that it will involve Mikael Granlund going the other way to Anaheim.
How do the Sabres Goalies Stack Up?
Your numbers, both basic and advanced stats will unfortunately take a hit more often than not when you’re on a bad team, but the argument that Shayna Goldman makes in her Athletic article that she recently came out with, it could have been a lot worse for a guy like John Gibson, but he did a lot to slow the bleeding. Kind of like Craig Anderson did over the past couple years when he played.
Of the Sabre goaltenders who started more than 10 games a year in the past two seasons, these were the best GSAx results: #1.) Craig Anderson +4.66, 2022-23 #2.) Craig Anderson – 7.77, 2021-22 #3.) Eric Comrie, -8.55, 2022-23 #4.) Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen -10.74, 2022-23 #5.) Dustin Tokarski, -11.61
Now you’re probably curious to where Devon Levi fell. Well, he was a +3.69 in seven games. However, it’s a small sample size, and that is a point I cannot stress enough. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen two years ago started 9 games and posted a .917 save percentage with a -1.96 GSAx.
We have no idea what Devon Levi is going to do with a bigger workload of 30+ games. When looking at the numbers, there are two main questions to ask: how much of it is the goalie, and how much of it is the team? This can be difficult to determine at times. The Sabres had the sixth highest expected goals against in the league last year.
In a player like John Gibson for example, I think a lot of it is the team in front of him. In Buffalo, when Anderson was at his best and when he was rested and available as we had to do because of his age, he elevated this team, as Levi did when he played. Evaluating Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are different stories. UPL recorded a -0.03 spct above expected, and a -0.84 WAR, and a .037 high danger save percentage (43rd of 75 qualifying) above expected, while Comrie recorded a .001 high danger save percentage above expected (59 of 75), -0.007 spct above expected, and a -1.14 WAR. Comrie also had a .421 QS%, vs. UPL .400, and Anderson’s .500.
We were bad defensively for sure, and the penalty kill was also an achilles heel. Often, we’ve had a lot of people wonder what if we got into the playoffs and edged the Panthers out? We’ll statistically speaking in terms of basic offense and defense, we were not that much different. We surrendered 300 goals (26th/32nd) and Florida surrendered 277 goals (21st/32nd). The Panthers defensively, especially Aaron Ekblad did miss having Mackenzie Weegar in the lineup every night, and they did take a slight hit there from the season before, but with good reason being Matthew Tkachuk. The difference is that the Panthers got the goaltending more often than we did, and we simply didn’t.
UPL and Eric Comrie were just not good or consistent enough last season. And if we got bad goaltending one night, our defense was melting down another. It was a combination of both that plagued us all year.
Another point that I cannot stress enough is, with UPL in particular, and Eric Comrie, any criticisms do not mean that there cannot be improvements. There absolutely were moments were UPL looked like a stud. Very Jekyll and Hyde, very boom or bust a lot of nights. And then there are UPL’s shootout woes, and that will need improvement as well.
I believe there can, and will be improvements with UPL. If the Sabres do look for another goalie, Karel Vejmelka is a player who I really like, and I have to say, I was quite surprised to see how bad a lot of his advanced metrics were in his rookie year in 2021-22 starting over 50 games, and being thrown into a bad situation. He made a lot of improvements in his underlying metrics from year one to year two, and is now near the top of the league in a lot of categories. In terms of the eye test, for as bad Arizona has been, he has kept them in a lot of games over the past couple years. UPL could continue to make similar strides, and is only a year and a half younger.
Vejmelka could also be a goaltender to look at for Buffalo. A potential trade could be: To Buffalo: Karel Vejmelka To Arizona: 2023 second round pick, and a 2023 or 2024 third rounder
I priced him similarly to Vitek Vanecek. However, while I like the player, I don’t feel it’s the move they should make because I just want a little more of a body of work, and more experience. But it is incredibly risky to go into next season with UPL, Levi, and Comrie.
A lot of people also think of Comrie as this journeyman veteran goaltender with a ton of experience, it’s very easy to forget that UPL has only played one less career NHL game than Comrie with 46. So we need to ask ourselves what do we want in a goaltender for next season? Do we want a true #1?
That’s Connor Hellebuyck easily. Even with one year left on his deal and no extension, I would have no problem parting with 13th overall. The cost however will be high. If you feel Carter Hart is a true number one, then that could be an option with term, but I do not think two first round picks are a price i’d pay. Do we want an upgrade over UPL? This to extent goes back to do we want a true #1?
Because even if you’re talking about Carter Hart or hell, even John Gibson, you’re more than likely doing it to upgrade over UPL. since Devon Levi is going to be here next season in one way or another. If you take that big swing, there is a good chance that UPL is gone Or, do we want a new Craig Anderson, but slightly younger?
Well to me, that would be Antti Raanta, a guy who is perfect for such a role, and he’s put up great basic, and advanced numbers for years. But, there is a problem of course, availability since he does have an injury history. If a guy like Raanta were to come here, we would probably end up with a three goaltender situation like in Carolina, but if we want to continue to develop UPL with Levi, the third veteran guy might be the plan. I think they need to do something different from Eric Comrie if that’s the case. Either way, they’re going to need to improve that defense because both areas need help.
A Discussion About John Gibson
The Need for Another Defenseman
Can we clone Mattias Samuelsson?
The fact that this team had such a difficult time without Mattias Samuelsson tells me that they need another Mattias Samuelsson, and those are not easy to find, especially on the right side. When I said one needs to evaluate what they want with a goaltender, we must do the same with a defenseman. It’s quite unanimous that we need an upgrade back there, but have we really taken the time to discuss what kind of defenseman we are looking for? Just as with many people wanting a goaltender to upgrade over UPL, my hunch is that many want the same with Henri Jokiharju as an upgrade. As I said earlier, I am looking for another strong defenseman like Mattias Samuelsson.
Calling Winnipeg, Boston, and Available Free Agents
The Winnipeg Jets could serve as a fantastic trade partner here, as they have a surplus of defenseman and a log jam at the position. The frequent name that comes up is of course, Dylan DeMelo. He’s a very underrated player who instantly upgrades our top four.
However, when one team upgrades, it’s very likely that another downgrades. Winnipeg I still believe wants to be as competitive as possible next season, even with possibly trading Hellebuyck, Scheifere, and Luc-Dubois. A big part of that, will probably be keeping a lot of their defense intact, especially if they are going to have a brand new #1 goalie. I would not be stunned if Winnipeg threw some money at Tristian Jarry in the offseason, and it may not be a wise decision.
Brendan Dillion is another high quality to look at in the offseason. But again, just like DeMelo, he may not be a guy the team would like to part with, unless it was a part of a bigger deal. Dillion brings an element that the Sabres need more of, and that other teams covet.
Nate Schmidt however, is a very interesting name for me. The main reason being, he can be had for very cheap. Winnipeg more than likely wants to free up their defensive logjam to make room for a guy like Ville Heinola, who was phenomenal in the AHL last season. I do believe Schmidt would be a solid guy to pair with Owen Power as a veteran mentor, and he also could thrive in Don Granato’s more fun to play in system, as opposed to Rick Bowness’s tighter defensive system.
He is very capable of eating big minutes, and playing in multiple situations. He was also one of the original Golden Knights, and he also is very familiar with former teammate Alex Tuch. He carries a hefty salary at 5.9 million for two more years, which is one reason why he’s one of the preferred guys to be moved. He also has a no trade clause. He led all Jets defenseman with 2.66 on-ice expected goals against/60, and also led the Jets in high danger shot attempts against/60 playing 18:20 mins a night and bouncing back between a second and third pair role.
He spent a lot of time playing with either Brendan Dillion, a very stout, physical defender, and the young 24-yo Dylan Samberg, serving as the veteran mentor. Schmidt recorded an xGA/60 of 2.03 w/ Dillion and a GA/60 of 0.8, and 2.27 xGA/60 and a 1.66 GA/60 w/ Samberg. Schmidt is also very capable of logging power play time if you need him to.
For the Sabres, both Power, Dahlin, and Samuelsson’s worst partner production wise was when they were paired with Jokiharju. Jokiharju worked the best with Power, but it was still a pretty subpar pairing. Dahlin, Samuelsson, and Power, away from Jokiharju allowed under 2.8 GA/60. Lybushkin and Power was a strong pairing defensively when they played together, but the offense was non-existent due to Lybushkin’s limitations. Power-Jokiharju were on the ice for 38 goals forward, and 38 against, with a 3.25 goals forward and against per 60.
Getting back to Nate Schmidt, I have no doubt he upgrades over Jokiharju in a potential top four role as a Power partner, and I think you can easily place him with Dahlin, and then use Power and Samuelsson more as a pair. You can also move Jokiharju down to the bottom pair, where he might be a better fit with a lesser role and less minutes.
I don’t see a lot of great options that are obvious on the trade market that make sense for the Sabres. If you’re willing to pay a big price tag, maybe you can pry Samuel Girard out of Colorado. Nate Schmidt is not the sexy choice here, but he might make sense because he will likely come at a cheap cost, and that also allows Kevyn Adams to retain a lot of their young players and draft capital to continue to build up the farm system.
Matt Greczlyk is one of my favorite options, and could be a solid option on the trade market, but he is a little undersized. He can play in the top four on the second pair, and is a player who is also familiar with Don Granato. He had the highest CF%rel on the Bruins last season among defenseman with +10.2, and recorded a 1.5 GA/60. Greczlyk’s most frequent partners over the past couple years have been Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo, but has also played quite a bit with Connor Clifton. Greczlyk was on two of Boston’s strongest pairs according to defensive metrics.
The only major downsides here are a couple things. First, he hasn’t been asked to play a lot of special teams in Boston, power play, or penalty kill, and the Sabres could use some more penalty killers. He also doesn’t have a ton of right side experience, but he is capable. It shouldn’t cost a ton to acquire, but there will be plenty of inquiries. Sustainable success was something that has been mentioned from the beginning.
A player like Matt Dumba could make the most sense in free agency, if he were to sign on a short term deal, with the hope that he would want to rebuild his value for another run at free agency. His grit and physical toughness would be a welcome addition on the blueline, but injuries have been an issue of late.
Ryan Graves is also a top option for free agency, and one of my personal favorites to sign in the offseason. He is a big, towering defenseman (6’5, 220), who can surely upgrade the top four, and play a shutdown role. In New Jersey, Graves was the defenseman that Lindy Ruff and the Devils leaned on the most to take the tough defensive zone starts with 58.3%. He also was their second leading penalty killer, and had the lowest GA/60 on the PK among the top four ice time Devil’s penalty killing defenseman. His strong play also goes back to his days in Colorado, so there is a sense that you know what you’re getting in Graves.
A downside to Graves is that he doesn’t play the right side, but he might be able to. Another downside is that because of his track record, he is going to get paid quite a bit of money. I would not be stunned if he got north of $5 million per season, but he might be worth it. Graves is also a polarizing player, plenty of people do not like Graves. No matter what you think of him, there is no question he is an upgrade over Henri Jokiharju in the top four.
Connor Clifton likely makes the most sense here for me in terms of free agents. He checks a lot of boxes, especially when it comes to making the Sabres harder to play against. He would be at the very top of my wish list. He’s also not very big (5’11, 190), but he plays bigger, and loves to throw his weight around. He had over 200 hits last season, and second on the team with blocked shots with 121, another area the Sabres need to improve on. Both Clifton and Greczlyk were the Bruins two best defenseman at suppressing high danger scoring chances with a 2.46 and 2.71 high danger shot attempts against/ 60.
The Bottom Six. Do we Have Other Needs than Defense and Goaltender?
Zemgus Girgensons: To Stay or Not to Stay
Lastly, there is the issue of what to do with Zemgus Girgensons.
Should the Sabres try to bring him back? Absolutely they should.
Here’s a fun fact many didn’t know about the Girgensons-Krebs-Okposo line. They were our top defensive line last season, and they recorded a 2.26 xGA/60, and were 17th in the league with a 2.14 GA/60 among lines who played more than 250 minutes together (they played 422 mins). On a side note to many peoples surprise, Eichel-Stephenson-Stone, in Vegas are top 3 in xGA/60, and top 6 in GA/60. I thought I would bring it up because defense is important for everyone, and it’s an area everyone one the team needs to make strides at improving. It’s a big area in Eichel’s game in particular that I’ve noticed, and I hope its something that the rest of our big offensive weapons take note of. But, to be fair, Bruce Cassidy preaches a much different system than Don Granato. Still, we can make improvements.
Girgensons played on some of our strongest defensive lines last season. Our two worst defensive lines last year were to no surprise, Olofsson-Mittelstadt-Jost w/ 3.88 GA/60 and next was the kid line (Cozens, Quinn, Peterka) with 3.68. When Mittelstadt was swapped out for Thompson, the Skinner/Tuch line improved to 2.15 GA/60, and 5.92 GF/60, 1.39 more than with Thompson on the line in a 111 minute sample size.
When Jost was inserted on the Girgensons and Okposo line, they were even better defensively. We are a team that needs more quality two way forwards and players who care about defense as much as they do offense.
So why shouldn’t we keep Girgensons? But I believe at the end of the day, Girgensons will opt for a change. He’s been here longer than anyone, and has seen the worst of the worst, but even with the upward trajectory, it’s been tough. If this is it, they will need to replace him in the lineup.
Who Else Should be on the Wish List?
Personally, I do believe the Sabres should look for a quality fourth liner who can play both center and wing and take draws.
In terms of using Tyson Jost as a fourth line, I prefer him on the wing instead of center since draws are a major issue for him. A 39% clip at faceoffs in the NHL as a center does not cut it, and the team does need to improve here. Noel Acciari would be very high on my offseason wish list and is another guy who checks a lot of boxes. He is tough to play against forward, who won 54% of his draws last year, and he’s a hitting machine. He can take a lot of tough defensive zone starts and is not afraid to go to the dirty areas of the ice.
Miles Wood would also be intriguing option for the Sabres to look at. His father is former Sabre, Randy Wood, who came over for a couple seasons in the Pat LaFontaine trade. He’s a physical player who brings grit and energy to the lineup, and also has tremendous speed to the equation. The only downside is, he hasn’t been asked to kill penalties in N.J, and he’s also prone to injury. The other downside is, I see him as a bottom six winger. It would not be surprising if he commanded a pretty hefty salary north of 3 or 4 million, which would be a gross overpayment.
Tomas Nosek, another original Vegas Golden Knight member, would be another welcome addition to the bottom six. He would be an immediate boost to the penalty kill, and was one of the leagues top faceoff men from last season winning 59% of his draws. He was an anchor on the top penalty killing unit in the league last year in Boston. The Sabres certainly could use that type of player in their bottom six.
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