If I Could Turn Back Time, If I Could Find a Way
Nothing news worthy here, no deep dive into the mess that is the Sabres. This is just a look at Buffalo’s top draft choices since Rasmus Dahlin was selected first overall in the 2018 draft. He is the cornerstone and captain of the team after all so I will start there. (plus every 1st rounder before Dahlin is long gone from the team) How many were the right pick? Who would you swap out if you could? Did we nail our selection or did we crap the bed? Are some of these players under performing because they were a bad pick? Or because they are playing for always struggling Buffalo? If you prefer another player from that year, you have to remember this… Would their success on their current team translate as well to the Sabres? As we have seen all over, most of our former players thrive elsewhere. Taking a player doing great elsewhere does not guarantee them performing nearly as well with Buffalo. Maybe we are drafting the right ones but they struggle in development here. With a below average staff and all the losing and instability that has been going on. I feel most of us second guess at least some of these selections. But several of these players could use more time and experience too.
As I go through this, I am stopping at the 2021 draft. The players selected after that are still too young to really evaluate. Plus Matthew Savoie was traded from the 2022 draft. So we will be looking only at Buffalo’s very first pick of the draft from 2018 through 2021. Four players in total. All of these draft picks are considered the young core of the team. Our foundation, our future. We have seen some good from each. But more is expected from many of them by now. We have seen setbacks this season but great things are still possible for this young talent. Will the Sabres have the patience to see it through? We shall see. This list does not include players selected in the 1st round by Buffalo after their very first pick. Only their top choice in each of those draft years. (so no Isak Rosen in 2021) Here is that list of four players:
2018 Rasmus Dahlin, 1st overall
2019 Dylan Cozens, 7th overall
2020 Jack Quinn, 8th overall
2021 Owen Power, 1st overall
First of all, on paper at least, WOW! Dahlin, Cozens, Quinn and Power. That is some phenomenal talent right there, all taken between 3 and nearly 7 years ago. That is a good chunk of development time too. So how in the world are the Sabres not a better team by now with all that talent on the roster? It’s both sad and troublesome. I swear, if you put those 4 players on any stable team they would be rocking it in the stats and standings. So is it the Buffalo curse? The below average coaching, the inexperienced staff, the overwhelmed and over his head GM? Why are these players not more dominant by now? Some of it is still youth and inexperience, as tiresome as that sounds. Some of it may be the depressing environment/loser mentality that surrounds the club. Or were these the wrong choices for our beleaguered hockey team? Take a look with me and make your opinions known.
Rasmus Dahlin
I don’t think anyone could argue that this was a BAD pick. Dahlin is clearly the best player on the team and new captain this season. As I write this (several days before posting) Dahlin has 320 career points in this his 7th season. He has developed into a very good number one Dman with loads of offensive wizardry and a physical/angry side that has emerged. His defensive game is much better than even a few seasons ago but we do still see the occasional breakdown. Rasmus has a few years to mature even more and round out his game even better. He was also the consensus choice to go first overall. But with what we know now, would the Sabres have been better off taking somebody else? I will give three alternate options for possible Buffalo choices. Stick with the pick or choose wisely.
Winger Andrei Svechnikov went 2nd overall and has carved out a nice career so far. A steady force on offense, he has 344 points so far in the NHL. Pretty good stuff but just a handful of points more than Dahlin, a defender. So for me, Svechnikov is a good player but he is not more valuable than Buffalo’s captain. Now on to Dman Quinn Hughes. He is more on the small side compared to Rasmus but he sure is a play maker. Hughes has 375 points in his 7 seasons so far, eclipsing Dahlin’s totals. But he also plays for a much better team with more skill around him. I prefer Dahlin’s physical side and overall size next to Hughes. I would still stick with Buffalo’s choice.
The option that most people would consider is winger Brady Tkachuk. He is the talented, physical, heart and soul player every organization covets. He has 388 points so far in his career. He scores, he hits, he fights when needed. A real team player. The type of player that Buffalo lacks greatly. I recognize the benefits of having a player like Tkachuk, his leadership and enthusiasm would be a blessing. He is the only other player I would consider swapping out for Dahlin. Yet I am 50-50 on whether I would do it. I feel Tkachuk might edge out Rasmus overall but it is much more beneficial to have a stud on defense. It’s a coin flip for me.
Dylan Cozens
Unlike Dahlin, Cozens was selected several picks from the top of the board where opinions begin to diverge. At the time and still until this day, he was a solid pick for many. But his struggles for the last season and a half have been frustrating to both him and the fans. He has hit a wall and Buffalo’s team wide collapse sure isn’t helping things. Right now he sits at 186 career points. I still feel Dylan’s best days are ahead of him. He will rebound and I hope it is in a Sabres uniform. Meanwhile, there were other options that Buffalo could have gone with in 2019.
With 164 points in his 5 seasons thus far, Trevor Zegras is a very skilled and talented player. But he has had his struggles the past few years just like Cozens. (after having some early success) For me though, this is an easy one. Zegras is not known for his team play and doesn’t have the size or physical side that Cozens has. He comes across as a flashy me first player so I am passing on him. Next is Cole Caufield, with 187 points for his young career so far. He dropped to 15th in the draft because of his small stature. But he is a gamer for sure. The kid has real talent and has put together 2 strong seasons in a row., He has 38 points in 40 games this year. Though Cozens brings different aspects to the game than Caufield does, based on offensive output, he has to be considered.
Finally we get to Matt Boldy. He was given an extra year of development which has been beneficial. In 4 seasons he has scored 205 points. No ups and downs so far in his career. 4 straight solid point producing seasons. Like Coz, he has good size and battles hard. But unlike the others mentioned here, he has shown consistency. He is scoring at the best clip of the bunch and is a fairly complete player. Basically what we want Cozens to be. Based on this, in a redraft I think Boldy is the one. But I still like Cozens and I’m still convinced he will rebound strong in the next few years.
Jack Quinn
I have no doubt that Jack Quinn will be a 30 goal/60 point player in the NHL. But I would be hard pressed to base that opinion on this season. Jack had a strong rookie campaign, with 14 goals and 37 points. Then came his injury plagued 23-24 season where he only played 27 games. But he still scored a very solid 19 points in his limited action. Thus expectations were high coming into this year. But Quinn, much like the team around him, fell off the map. He sits at 5 goals and 14 points at the midway point. He has been ineffective for long stretches and scratched for others. In the past few weeks he found some life again, but lately the struggles have returned. All signs looked good for a strong season, perhaps 50 points from Quinn. But instead he has joined other underachieving players dragging the team down.. Or is it the other way around? Either way, here are the alternate options Buffalo could have gone with.
Where to start? This draft so far has produced many good players. There are at least 6-8 options for quality talent that the Sabres could have selected. From Dawson Mercer to Cole Perfetti. Or maybe Montreal’s Kaiden Guhle or Calgary center Connor Zary? How about Cup Champ Anton Lundell? Even St. Louis found a good one way down at pick 26 with Jake Neighbours. But I will stick to the two players who were expected to be drafted near Quinn’s spot. First is the player many of us wanted, Marco Rossi from the Wild. The skilled center scored 40 points in his first full season and already has 37 points at the halfway point this year. That is two years in a row that Minnesota snagged a great player soon after us. He is a candidate for sure. But I think Seth Jarvis from Carolina has to be considered here too. He has 175 points in his first 3 and a half seasons and has emerged as one of the best from that draft.
Do I pick either of these players over Quinn? Well, it’s easier to say yes when both are having good seasons and Quinn’s play has been in the dumper. That “young player fall off” I have discussed before is at play here. And it hits even harder when the team bottoms out. Quinn will find his game again, I’m sure of it. He will score many goals in the league for years to come. Meanwhile, in this hypothetical scenario, I probably have to grab Rossi. That doesn’t mean we don’t have a good player in Quinn though.
Owen Power
I made it be known back in 2021 that I preferred Matty Beniers to be the Sabres pick. In retrospect, Power has been a good pick for us…but not without his flaws. Offensively, zero complaints. He is great on the rush, smart and creative, and a threat to score. And he will only get better. Defensively, he has work to do. And physically? This has been his Kryptonite. Way too much standing around for Owen and not enough using his big frame to his advantage. He has got to step up his game in front of the net and along the boards.
It is still pretty early since this draft but some players are emerging. I will skip the anomaly that Dallas found in Wyatt Johnston, with his 125 points in 2 and a half seasons at pick 23. The number one pick was between Power and Beniers alone. Buffalo went with Power and I hesitantly agree with that choice. Matty had a strong 10 game look in 21-22 then followed that up with 57 points in his first full season. He won the Calder as Rookie of the Year. Since then, his offense has struggled the past season and a half, much like Cozens. But he is a strong two way player, smart and hard working. His offense should bounce back soon. I like Beniers and I think he would have been a great Buffalo Sabre. But I slightly favor Power because of the importance of his position. Mason McTavish deserves an honorable mention here as well. I like the player but he was not quite 1st overall material. So did the Sabres make the right pick in 2021 for you?
Wrap it up Already
Zach Benson, the Sabres first pick in 2023 already looks like a good one. The kid has spirit, talent and Tasmanian grit. He joins the core four we just went over. Meanwhile, can Buffalo eventually get around to winning with these guys? Is better coaching, better veterans around them going to help? At some point THESE players need to take the next step themselves. Dahlin still has some room to improve but I think the player we see now is close to his peak level. Coz, Jack and Owen all have substantial room to grow and get better. The Sabres will have to show patience to see it though.
How much better would the 24-25 Sabres be if we had these four players instead?
Brady Tkachuk, Matt Boldy. Marco Rossi and Matt Beniers
Well, our forward group with Tage and Tuch certainly looks much better with these guys. More scoring, more grit, more 2 way players. A real force on offense. But our defense obviously takes a big hit. Maybe swap in one of Dahlin or Power for better balance. The team would still be drastically different though. But would it be better and by how much? It sure can’t get much worse than this.
I suppose thoughts like these run through the heads of frustrated Buffalo Sabres fans all the time. In reality though, (for now at least) these are the core young players we are working with. We will need the best from all of them to finally flip this dreaded script.