DBTB –
Well, I’ll be the first person to admit I’m behind this year. A lot going on at home has kept me very busy, and as it turns out, the Sabres are not as good as we all hoped. I haven’t been on top of things as I typically am. My apologies. And not just for being behind. I’m also sorry to roll out a piece on something else that will remind you of the inferiority of our favorite team…the NHL Draft! Yes, at the time of this typing, the Sabres are set up to select in the Top 10 once again. And, given the decided lack of palm trees and a highly unlikely tax cut in New York state, they will likely be making this pick whether they want to or not. Here once again the Draft is working against them.
The more I’ve watched of this Draft class, the more I am coming to realize there’s a distinct point of separation (at least to me) at around the #7 or #8 spot. The group of kids at the top of the Draft are really, really good. After that, however, it gets a little…meh.
One unusual element of this class is how far and away the Canadian kids are compared to the kids from any other nation. This is a really poor year for the Russians and a record-breakingly bad year for the Finns, who may not have a single player in the 1st round. That hasn’t happened for a long time! The Slovaks and the Czechs have a good player or two, but not much more than that, and unlike most years, even the Swedes don’t have one dominant player that you can be sure is a Top 10 pick (although Anton Frondell is pretty close, he’s been plagued by injuries this year). The US Development team is decidedly average this year, and the USHL has some nice players but no one threatening to move into the Top 10. The NCAA has some studs, but we’ll get to those momentarily.
This is like a 1980’s draft with a bunch of Canadians and a smattering of other nationalities mixed in for flavor. The Q will likely produce 3-4 1st rounders, something that hasn’t happened in quite a while. The WHL should have a couple players in the Top 15, and potentially the #1 overall, plus the top goaltender in the Draft. But the OHL is the one league that is really loaded. They could have the Top 3 picks, and I could see up to 10 first rounders from the OHL alone. The only player who could challenge the dominance of the Canadian kids is the dynamic James Hagens. As a freshman he’s among the leaders in assists for the entire NCAA. Going into the year, he was the consensus #1 overall. But he’s being challenged. Roger McQueen, a 6’5 centerman who’s a natural goal scorer and can be a dominant two-way center. At his size, skating, and skill level, he’s going to be a real draw for scouts. Has put up a goal per game thus far (8G in 8 games), but he’s been suffering from a back injury, which may cause him to drop at some point. Players that size often have back issues, so teams will need their due diligence before he gets chosen. Another center who’s climbing, Mike Misa, is a goal scoring machine. He’s got 27G in 27 games and 55P for Saginaw. Dynamic shooter, great skater, he’s a 1C in the making. Speaking of impressive point totals, big Porter Martone (6’3) put up 56P in 26 games for Brampton. A smooth, do-it-all forward in the Mikko Rantanen mold, he’s got the size and skill teams look for in a top line forward. And lastly, the top defender in the class, Matt Schaefer, a long, smooth, defensemen with a bit of snarl. He’s put up 22P in 17 games as a blueliner…pretty impressive…and has the ability to shut down guys in his own end. Can really skate, very smart and efficient. A potential Top 3 pick. So it should be competitive for the #1 overall spot this year, which is always fun.
Something new in Draft World this season was the CHL – USA Challenge. Likely prompted by the recent decisions that are transforming the relationships between junior hockey in the US and in Canada, this 2-game competition between the stars of the CHL and the US National team, was something draft nerds have been talking about for ages. This year, however, given the talent levels on both sides, the CHL team won both games, the first with ease (6-1) and the second, a more Sabres-like game where the US NTDP lost by a tight score of 3-2 but lost in the shot counter 38-12. This was fun, and hopefully next season the US NTDP will be more competitive and the games will be even more entertaining.
As for the Draft order, this is from very early in the season when I first started typing this. So the standings will look pretty messed up, but the Sabres look right about where they should be…maybe a spot too high.
Thanks everyone and look forward to another season of Prospect watching with you all. Woo…ha, Sabres on the warpath, Woo…ha…
ROUND ONE:
1#1 NASHVILLE: Roger McQueen, 6’5 C, WHL
1#2 COLORADO: Porter Martone, 6’3 RW, OHL
1#3 EDMONTON: James Hagens, 5’10 W, NCAA
1#4 WASHINGTON: Mike Misa, 6’0 C, OHL
1#5 CAROLINA: Matthew Schaefer, 6’1 LHD, OHL
1#6 SAN JOSE: Logan Hensler, 6’2 RHD, NCAA
1#7 NY ISLANDERS: Caleb Desnoyers, 6’1 C, QMJHL
1#8 BUFFALO: Malcolm Spence, 6’1 LW, OHL
1#9 PITTSBURGH: Anton Frondell, 6’1 C, SWE
1#10 MONTREAL (FLORIDA): Carter Bear, 6’1 LW, WHL
1#11 VANCOUVER: Kashawn Aitchison, 6’2 LHD, OHL
1#12 SEATTLE: Lynden Lakovic, 6’4 W, WHL
1#13 PHILADELPHIA: Radim Mrtek, 6’6 RHD, CZE
1#14 CHICAGO: Milton Gastrin, 6’2 C, SWE
1#15 DETROIT: Ilya Ryabkin, 6’0 C, RUS
1#16 ST LOUIS: Viktor Eklund, 5’11 LW, SWE
1#17 COLUMBUS: Carter Amico, 6’5 RHD, USHL
1#18 OTTAWA: Josh Ravensbergen, 6’4 G, WHL
1#19 BOSTON: Kurban Limatov, 6’4 LHD, RUS
1#20 MONTREAL: Blake Fiddler, 6’4 RHD, WHL
1#21 CHICAGO (TORONTO): Sasha Boumedienne, 6’2 LHD, NCAA
1#22 MINNESOTA: Brady Martin, 6’0 C, OHL
1#23 LOS ANGELES: Bill Zonnon, 6’3 RW, QMJHL
1#24 NY RANGERS: Ed Genbourg, 6’2 W, SWE
1#25 ANAHEIM: Will Moore, 6’2 C, US NTDP
1#26 CALGARY: Jackson Smith, 6’3 LHD, WHL
1#27 WINNIPEG: Justin Carbonneau, 6’1 LW, QMJHL
1#28 UTAH: Jacob Rombach, 6’5 RHD, USHL
1#29 CALGARY (NEW JERSEY): Shane Vanshagi, 6’3 C, NCAA
1#30 NASHVILLE (VEGAS): Jack Nesbitt, 6’4 C, OHL
1#31 NASHVILLE (TAMPA BAY): Oliver Sjostrom, 5’10 LHD, SWE
1#32 DALLAS: Patryk Zubek, 6’3 LHD, SVK
ROUND TWO:
2#1 NASHVILLE: Simon Wang, 6’6 LHD, OJHL
2#2 CALGARY (COLORADO): Jack Murtaugh, 6’0 C, US NTDP
2#3 NEW JERSEY (EDMONTON): Jake O’Brien, 6’2 C, OHL
2#4 WASHINGTON: Semyon Frolov, 6’3 G, RUS
2#5 CAROLINA: Max Westergard, 5’11 LW, SWE
2#6 SAN JOSE: Cole Reschny, 5’10 C/W, WHL
2#7 NY ISLANDERS: Nathan Behm, 6’2 RW, WHL
2#8 BUFFALO: Jan Chovan, 6’2 C, FIN
2#9 MONTREAL (PITTSBURGH): Mikkel Eriksen, 6’0 C, NWY
2#10 TORONTO (FLORIDA): Ayrtom Vilchinsky, 6’6 LHD, RUS
2#11 VANCOUVER: Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, 6’3 RW, SWE
2#12 SEATTLE: Henry Bruzustewicz, 6’2 RHD, OHL
2#13 PHILADELPHIA: Jack Ivankovic, 6’0 G, OHL
2#14 CHICAGO: Vit Zahesjsky, 5’10 C, WHL
2#15 DETROIT: Karl Annborn, 6’1 RHD, SWE
2#16 EDMONTON (ST LOUIS): Braeden Cootes, 6’0 C, WHL
2#17 PHILADELPHIA (COLUMBUS): Charlie Trethawey, 6’1 RHD, US NTDP
2#18 OTTAWA: Viktor Klingsell, 5’10 W, SWE
2#19 WASHINGTON (BOSTON): Peyton Kettles, 6’5 RHD, WHL
2#20 MONTREAL: Love Haremstem, 6’1 G, SWE
2#21 TAMPA BAY (TORONTO): Cullen Potter, 5’10 LW, NCAA
2#22 MINNESOTA: Ben Kindel, 6’0 C, WHL
2#23 TAMPA BAY (LOS ANGELES): Cameron Schmidt, 5’8 W, WHL
2#24 COLORADO (NY RANGERS): Luka Radivojevic, 5’10 RHD, SWE
2#25 PHILADELPHIA (ANAHEIM): Reese Hamilton, 6’0 LHD, WHL
2#26 CALGARY: Adam Benak, 5’8 C, CZE
2#27 NEW JERSEY (WINNIPEG): Melvin Novotny, 6’1 LW, SWE
2#28 UTAH: Ben Kevan, 5’11 C, USHL
2#29 NEW JERSEY: Cam Reid, 6’0 LHD, OHL
2#30 VEGAS: Conrad Fondrik, 6’0 C, US NTDP
2#31 NASHVILLE (TAMPA BAY): Vaclav Nesterasil, 6’4 RW, USHL
2#32 DALLAS: Jordan Gavin, 5’11 C/LW, WHL
ROUND THREE:
3#1 NASHVILLE: Luca Romano, 5’11 C, OHL
3#2 SAN JOSE (COLORADO): Will Sharpe, 6’1 LHD, WHL
3#3 SAN JOSE (EDMONTON): Ryker Lee, 5’10 C, US HS
3#4 VEGAS (WASHINGTON): Tomas Mikel, 6’4 RHD, USHL
3#5 WASHINGTON (CAROLINA): Vojtech Cinar, 6’1 W, CZE
3#6 VEGAS (SAN JOSE): Matthew Gard, 6’5 LW, WHL
3#7 NY ISLANDERS: Carlos Handel, 6’1 RHD, QMJHL
3#8 BUFFALO: Max Agafonov, 6’2 RHD, RUS
3#9 PITTSBURGH: Zeb Lindgren, 6’2 LHD, SWE
3#10 OTTAWA (FLORIDA): Owen Conrad, 6’2 LHD, QMJHL
3#11 MONTREAL (VANCOUVER): Arvid Drott, 6’1 RW, SWE
3#12 SEATTLE: Erik Nilson, 6’0 C, SWE
3#13 PHILADELPHIA: Michel Svrcek, 5’10 C, SWE
3#14 CHICAGO: Pyotr Andreyanov, 6’0 G, RUS
3#15 DETROIT: Cooper Simpson, 6’1 W, US HS
3#16 EDMONTON (ST LOUIS): Alex Huang, 6’0 RHD, QMJHL
3#17: COLUMBUS: Tomas Pobezal, 5’11 C, SVK
3#18 PITTSBURGH (OTTAWA): Tyler Hopkins, 6’1 C, OHL
3#19 BOSTON: Aiden Lane, 6’1 RW, CCHL
3#20 MONTREAL: Alvar Ervasti, 6’3 LHD, FIN
3#21 ANAHEIM (TORONTO): Ondrej Stebatack, 6’2 G, CZE
3#22 PITTSBURGH (MINNESOTA): Maceo Phillips, 6’5 LHD, US NTDP
3#23 LOS ANGELES: Eetu Orpana, 6’0 C/W, FIN
3#24 UTAH (NY RANGERS): Bruno Osmanis, 5’11 RW, SWE
3#25 ANAHEIM: Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen, 6’0 LHD, NCAA
3#26 CALGARY: Jesper Kotajarvi, 5’11 LHD, FIN
3#27 WINNIPEG: Brent Solomon, 5’11 RW, US HS
3#28 UTAH: Artyom Gonchar, 6’0 LHD, RUS
3#29 NEW JERSEY: Andreas Straka, 6’1 W, SVK
3#30 NEW JERSEY (VEGAS): Cole McKinney, 6’0 C, US NTDP
3#31 CAROLINA (TAMPA BAY): Jere Somervuori, 6’0 LW, FIN
3#32 DALLAS: Filip Ekberg, 5’10 LW, OHL
SABRES HAUL:
1#8: Malcolm Spence, 6’2 LW, OHL: When you have a prospect pool as deep and as varied as the Sabres, you can afford to go shopping for a particular type of player in the Draft. And with this selection, the Sabres add a kid who is a star in the dressing room, a terror on the ice and something they don’t have much of, if any, in their system. When you talk about Spence, you start with the character. He’s a leader, a guy who will do whatever it takes to win. A renowned talker on the ice, he will agitate all day but will back it up with a big hit, a clutch goal, or picking the pocket of an opponent as they enter the zone. Will take a hit to make a play and will lay the body on the forecheck or clear the front of the net with gusto. Is a dog on a bone with his puck pursuit. A ferocious forechecker with superb speed and length, Spence is a nightmare to escape for defenders deep in their own end. Relentless in trying to force turnovers, he not only has the physical tools to be a forechecking terror, but he’s extremely clever. Will bait puck carriers into making a poor pass, pounce on mistakes, and has a knack for a timely stick lift that leads to a transition chance the other way. Spence is a dedicated two-way player. Takes pride in his defense, sticking tight to his check and being a problem up and down the ice for the puck carriers on the other team. Will play disciplined as well – he doesn’t go chasing the puck, or chasing a hit, but he stays within the structure and bides his time to make a momentum-changing play. Forechecks, backchecks, has great play recognition and can defend off-puck in space or gap up on his check. Great size (6’2 205#). A lightning-quick straight-line skater, transitions from offense to defense or vice versa with ease and intention. Burst is exceptional, gets up the ice in a flash, fills his lane, and drives to the net. Can carry the puck as well and has a few tricks in his bag that helps create some time and space for him to do his thing. Motor never stops…he’s all over the ice on nearly every shift. He gets his money’s worth every time he steps on the ice. Spence has a laser of a shot. Heavy, hard, and accurate, he’s a dangerous weapon as a trailer in transition or part of a set play off a draw. When he doesn’t have the puck, Spence is going to the middle of the ice. Either the net front, or posting up higher in the slot for tips and deflections. The lone negative, if you want to call it that, for Spence is his inconsistent dynamism. He can look like a puck wizard one period, and the next he mishandles pucks or makes poor decisions at speed. He’s not a high-end playmaker or creator, he’s more of an athlete, and generally plays a very linear game. You’re not going to see him dangle through a crowd of defenders and sauce a blind pass to a teammate. That’s not his game. I think his floor is likely someone like Blake Coleman; but his upside could be a Roope Hintz-style explosive top line wing, but to maximize his ability, he’ll need a playmaker on his line. Spence has put up the numbers as well. Was a PPG player on Canada’s U-18 team (as an under-ager) and their Hlinka team, both of whom won Gold. Wore a letter for the Erie Otters while putting up 62P in 66 games last season; this year, he’s already at 7P in 6 games for a defensively-minded Otter squad. A high character, high motor 2-way player with size and speed? Sounds like a nice addition to the organization to me.
2#8: Jan Chovan, 6’3 C, FIN: This big Slovak can do a little bit of everything. He’s got great size (6’3 180#), strength, and smarts. Can play wing or center; can excel on offense or defense. Chovan’s biggest asset to my mind is his strength. He’s a bull around the net, tough to take off the puck, and able to win physical battles on the walls or down low. When he’s engaged he’ll pin an opponent against the wall with ease, forcing a turnover. Or get inside leverage and simply hold off a defender while creating space at the top of the crease. This gives him plenty of room to set up for a tip or deflection, or find a rebound and jam it in. Strength and excellent balance make him a chore to move off the puck or his spot. Chovan’s skating is a positive as well. He’s got powerful strides, and while isn’t especially explosive out of the blocks, he keeps up with faster players and can accelerate to really good linear speed once he gets going. Could use more burst. Lateral movement is very good. Smooth four-way mobility, coupled with his power, makes him a tough customer below the dots. Excellent short area footwork and for a player his size, can be very nimble with his feet. Chovan’s confidence with the puck at his age is impressive. Patient and confident with the puck on his stick, he’ll use his size to hang on to the puck until a lane can be found. Constantly scanning the ice when he doesn’t have the puck. Always prepared when the puck comes to him. A very good passer, especially out of sets, he sees seams and openings before the defense can close them off and gets the puck to the open guy in a hurry. Possesses a nasty shot. Hard, with a quick release, although he could stand to use it more often. Smart player, Chovan is equally effective on the defensive end, using that reach and skating to make it difficult on opposing puck carriers. Has a good feel for defending in space, although he can get caught puck watching a little too frequently for my taste. Something to clean up in the future for sure. One thing that he will need to improve is inconsistent engagement. When he’s on – down a goal, in OT, those sorts of high-pressure situations – he can be an absolute beast. Flying around the ice, using his size, controlling play and creating chances. But he’s not always on. At times, he plays slow, too methodically, and drags down his linemates with that pace. And he can become averse to using his physicality, particularly early in games, and doing some floating around the ice. Intensity will have to go up throughout the entire game as will that physicality that has been inconsistent thus far. Chovan is, and has been, playing in the Finnish leagues since he was a young teen; he currently is 3rd in scoring among draft eligibles in the Finnish U20 league; he also led the Slovak team with 6P in 4 games at the Hlinka this past Spring, and 3P in 7 games at the U18s. I think you’re looking at a potential Pavel Zacha kind of player, someone who plays a 2-way game with size and shutdown center capabilities if he can establish a consistently high level of intensity.
3#8: Max Agafonov, 6’2 RHD, RUS: The Sabres have had some luck recently with Russian defenders, and here they try to continue that hot streak with this flashy blueliner. And they’ve had some luck with a guy with almost an identical name – Maxim Afinogenov, for those of you scoring at home – so why not combine the two? This kid has good size (6’2 200#), is an excellent skater with great top speed, and is a natural puck mover. Likes to carry the puck. Finds open passing lanes by pushing the puck up and forcing defenders to back off, creating diagonal passing opportunities to move the puck and trigger odd-man entries into the O-zone. Excellent sense when it comes to angles and finding open guys. Isn’t especially creative with the puck on his stick, and rarely tries anything risky with the puck. Not a great shot, he tends to miss wide and high, shoots to score and not to create rebounds or pucks in front. Has good lateral movement with the puck and likes to fake one way and go the other, which gives him shooting lanes to the net. Dangerous as the trailer in transition with his powerful stride. Can join the rush with ease, but has a good sense of when to drop back if his partner is attacking up ice or his teammates are too deep in the O-zone. Interestingly, identifying when the pinch is something he needs to be better at doing. Gets caught pinching regularly, sometimes getting to the wall late, other times unable to keep the puck in. The puck gets off his stick quickly, either in passing situations or during puck recoveries. Doesn’t overhandle the puck. Defensively, his gaps are really good, and when a check gets the puck, he closes fast. Not afraid of putting a body on an opponent, especially around his own net. While his on-puck defense is solid, his off-puck defending in space, especially in transition, is spotty. Will get lost defending a player and can get hypnotized by the puck and start puck-watching, losing his man. Glides a little too often for my taste. This stands out because when Afaganov uses his stride, it’s powerful and eats up a lot of ice. Still a bit of a project but a lot of potential. Is the second-leading scorer among D-Men on his club (8P in 17 games) and has looked fluid enough to go up to the VHL – the Russian equivalent of the AHL – for 6 games. He reminds me a bit of a bigger Ryan Johnson. Really good skater who can control the puck and get it up ice, but isn’t going to wow you offensively or absolutely lock it down on defense. A very useful, if not flashy, defender prospect.