DBTB –
Welcome to a new Draft Year! Optimism is boundless at this point in the season, which goes not only for the NHL but all the leagues on down from the pinnacle of hockey. And this season’s class looks to be pretty strong. Not unlike last season, this year is heavy on talented wings and defenders, and thin at the center position (and very thin, at this point, in net). But this draft has something last year’s was noticeably missing: a future superstar.
Gavin McKenna is that guy. The Showhorse from Whitehorse is a showstopper. He had 97P in 61 games, most of those games as a 15-year-old. In the WHL. That’s pretty damn good. But just because he wasn’t done, he went and put up 20P in 7 games at the U-18 Worlds. Why not? So pretty good, right? Hold my beer (well, root beer, as he wasn’t old enough to drink). Last season, he put up 129P in 58 games, led his Medicine Hat Tigers to the WHL title, and dominated the playoffs, where he dropped 38P in 16 playoff games and took the Tigers to the Memorial Cup final.
While he’s not a centerman, and that dims just a touch off his shine, he’s still a dynamic playmaker from the wing in the same way that Patrick Kane made a living doing the same type of thing. An incredibly efficient player, he has more of an Eichel than a McDavid playstyle. A lot of possessing the puck, moving patiently through the 3 zones, always identifying opportunities. Not an explosive skater like McDavid, he does have that suddenness that Eichel has, that blink-and-you-miss-it shift into high speed that leaves a defender in the dust. I’ve seen him compared to players like Kucherov, which is think is not far off…he has that same sneaky/deadly style, where it looks like he’s just playing catch with a teammate and all of the sudden, he catches you peeking, dekes you and gets inside and rips a short-shelf goal before anyone knows what happened. He’s the next big star.
Speaking of stars, we saw the Hlinka Tournament play out just a week or two ago over in Czechia. The US, surprisingly, won the tournament, beating the Swedes in the Gold Medal game. The Canadians took Bronze. The US usually brings what they call ‘the B team’ to this tournament, i.e. the guys who aren’t playing for the National Development team. And that’s what they did this time. But to everyone’s surprise, the B Team actually beat the two best teams in the tournament talent-wise, Canada and Sweden, in back-to-back games to win the whole enchilada. Standout players from the tournament are all over my Top 20: Tynan Lawrence was probably Canada’s best overall forward, while Sweden’s Marcus Nordmark led the tournament in scoring.
Guys like Elton Hermansson, Adam Valentini, Ryan Lin, and Oscar Hemming all had their moments. But it was American centerman Jack Hextall who won the tournament MVP, putting up 7P in 5 games and looking dominant in the two medal round games. Keaton Verhoeff, the huge right-shot D-Man for Canada, was supposed to really have his coming out party at this tournament, but after a fantastic start, his performance seemed to decline game-over-game. Is that merely a blip on the radar, or something to expect going forward? And if the latter, will another player emerge as a challenger to McKenna?
This brings us to the make-up of the class so far. I would say this is a really good class for some offensive minded wings of all sorts, and a potentially strong group of puck-moving D. Center is a little thin in this group, and right now, I would argue there isn’t a goaltender worth a 1st round selection in the entire class. The Canadians look to have the most complete group, with McKenna leading the way. My top 4 picks are all from the Great White North. And Sweden has a glut of playmaking wings toward the top end, and some really interesting defenders toward the back of the 1st round. Russia, after a pretty poor class last year, is coming back with a number of explosive forwards. One nation I thought would fall off this year, the USA, might actually have some talent that heretofore had not been talked about much. Hextall for one, a dynamic scorer in Blake Zielinski could climb up the Board, and a couple of the NTDP guys could wind up giving the US a pretty respectable group when it’s all said and done. But of course, this is just the first iteration of this year’s Mock Drafts…it will likely change considerably when we get to June.
As always, the drafting order was taken from the Vegas odds at the Wynn Sportsbook. I then ran them through a lottery at Tankathon, and stuck the Sabres at #18 because… well, it’s my Mock Draft. And I for one am holding out hope that our Blue and Gold make the playoffs this year until, or if, they prove me wrong.
So let’s get this thing started!
ROUND ONE:
1#1: CHICAGO: Gavin McKenna, 6’0 C/LW, NCAA
1#2: SAN JOSE: Keaton Verhoeff, 6’5 RHD, NCAA
1#3: NASHVILLE: Ryan Roobroeck, 6’4 C, OHL
1#4: PITTSBURGH: Tynan Lawrence, 6’0 C, USHL
1#5: SEATTLE: Ivar Stenberg, 6’0 W, SWE
1#6: BOSTON: Marcus Nordmark, 6’1 RW, SWE
1#7: ANAHEIM: Viktor Fyodorov, 6’0 C, RUS
1#8: PHILADELPHIA: Luke Schairer, 6’2 RHD, US NTDP
1#9: DETROIT: Simon Katolicky, 6’4 W, FIN
1#10: COLUMBUS: Viggo Bjorck, 5’10 C/W, SWE
1#11: CALGARY: Elton Hermansson, 6’1 W, SWE
1#12: NY ISLANDERS: Adam Novotny, 6’1 W, CZE
1#13: VANCOUVER: Adam Valentini, 5’11 W, USHL
1#14: MONTREAL: Chase Reid, 6’2 RHD, OHL
1#15: ST LOUIS: Joe Iginla, 5’10 W, WHL
1#16: UTAH: Ryan Lin, 5’11 RHD, WHL
1#17: MINNESOTA: Oscar Hemming, 6’4 LW, FIN
1#18: BUFFALO: Maddox Dagenais, 6’4 C, QMJHL
1#19: OTTAWA: FORFEITED
1#20: WASHINGTON: Olivers Murnieks, 6’1 C, USHL v
1#21: NY RANGERS: Ethan Belchetz, 6’5 LW, OHL
1#22: WINNIPEG: Daxon Rudolph, 6’1 RHD, WHL
1#23: BOSTON (TORONTO): Will Hakansson, 6’4 LHD, SWE
1#24: LA KINGS: Yegor Shilov, 6’1 C, RUS
1#25: NEW JERSEY: Colin Fitzgerald, 6’2 C, OHL
1#26: SEATTLE (TAMPA BAY): Xavier Villaneueve, 5’11 LHD, QMJHL
1#27: NY RANGERS (DALLAS): Lars Steiner, 5’10 RW, QMJHL
1#28: NY ISLANDERS (COLORADO): Carson Carels, 6’1 LHD, WHL
1#29: SAN JOSE (EDMONTON): Lavr Gashilov, 6’2 C, RUS
1#30: CAROLINA: Jack Hextall, 6’0 C, USHL
1#31: CALGARY (VEGAS): Axel Elofsson, 5’11 RHD, SWE
1#32: CHICAGO (FLORIDA): Tobias Tomik, 6’1 C/W, SVK
SABRES’ HAUL:
1#18: Maddox Dagenais, 6’4 C, QMJHL:
Some will say this is a reach, and they would not be wrong. Not quite wrong, at least, because we don’t yet know what this kid will be. Last season was a tale of two seasons for Dagenais. The first half, dude was a beast, dominating play even as a Draft -1 and looking for sure like a Top 10 with his size, skill and skating package. Then he got hurt and disappeared from the map. What will he be in his Draft season? We’ll have to wait to find out. But from what I saw early last year, there’s so much upside with this kid.
First off, the skill set. He’s got a pro-caliber shot and hands. A blistering wrister, a rocket of a clapper and he can get those shots off with power and a lightning quick release that you will miss if you blink. Deceptive shooter, although he doesn’t always need to be, considering the kind of rocket launcher he has for a shot. Hands are exceptional. Can handle off-target passes, hard or soft, in front or behind him, corral the puck and get it off in one motion. Will dangle you to the point of embarrassment. Even has a decent bag of fakes and feints that gives him that half-second more of time and space to make a play. Can be a difference maker down around the crease – those hands make him dangerous with tips and deflections, and his enormous size (6’4 200#) makes him a great screen.
He’s a terror on the PP, where he can rip a shot from the wing, go to the netfront and fight for rebounds, and set guys up for one-timers with blind cross-ice passes. His skating is good, especially for his size. Strong, explosive first couple strides. Generates enough power to glide down the ice while creating space with his hands and size. He’s elusive with the puck, knows how to change speeds to keep defenders guessing and off-balance, and can move laterally with and without the puck to open up more lanes to the net. His transitions from front to back need work, and he can take some wide turns that leave him behind the play, but that can be improved with work. Defensively, he’s a work in progress. Can lose focus and is one of those players who has come up with all the talent in the world and tends to drift when he doesn’t have the puck (scored 80P in 30 games in U16).
Last season, his first in junior, started out on fire. He was at 11P in 7 games with 7 goals to start the season…he got hurt shortly after that, missed a little time, and wasn’t quite the same when he came back, finishing with 26P in 43 games. He has the raw talent to be a Top 10 pick, but he could tumble into the middle rounds if he doesn’t show some kind of consistent high-level performance. This year will be a big one for him. He could wind up being an Adam Fantilli-type of centerman.
2#18: Ola Palme, 6’1 LHD, SWE:
I know, I know, the Sabres don’t have a 2nd round pick in this Draft as of right now (they moved it in the Dylan Cozens deal) but in the interest of having more players to talk about, I’ll pretend they still have it for now. And with this imaginary selection, the Sabres add a skill set to their defensive prospects that they haven’t had in a while – a lightning quick offensive-minded blueliner. Palme zips around the ice like other players are standing still. High-motor, high-pace defender who covers all three zones. Skating is explosive, and is a very smooth, efficient four-directional skater. Can gap up with speedy wings while skating backwards and close them out, forcing them to give up the puck or lose it. Changes directions easily and without any hiccups.
Transitions from offense to defense, and back, in a snap and will come out of nowhere to be the third or fourth man in during rushes. Effective in puck pursuit, Palme gets to pucks quickly and has a plan when he arrives. Doesn’t hang on to the puck for long. Moves it to the right man quickly and smartly. When engaged in puck battles, he’s surprisingly physical. Has a strong core and lower body, which helps him stay on his feet and makes him tough to move. Can overpower bigger forwards in the same way someone like Sidney Crosby does…just being stronger on his skates and heavy on his stick, he negates a lot of the advantage that bigger forwards have when fighting for pucks. A danger in transition, Palme can carry the puck and blow by defenders (and sometimes, his own teammates!) but he does not use this capability nearly enough.
In sets, he’s fairly vanilla, doesn’t show a lot of creativity with the puck or make opponents miss. Makes the safe play and doesn’t turn the puck over at the blue line. Would like to see him be more attack-minded, but that could come with more confidence. Palme played for the silver medal-winning Team Sweden at the Hlinka, where he played in a middle-pair role. Still, he managed to be the 3rd leading scorer among the Swedish defense, with 3A in 5 games and he would’ve done more if he’d gotten more PP time.