Keeping this paragraph as a starting point if this is your first time reading this series: We will be continuing our journey through this series looking at one team at a time to act as a trade partner. Please keep in mind this should not be viewed in the same way as a comprehensive GM for a day type of post where we are looking to completely overhaul the team in one fell swoop. Each article will “reset” the Sabres roster, so don’t be surprised to see the same players, prospects, and picks used repeatedly in various trade offers.
A little less than a year ago, a sizeable trade occurred between the Sabres and Avalanche in March of 2024. The teams agreed to a one for one player swap where the Sabres acquired Bo Byram and the Avalanche looked to fill their 2nd line center role with Casey Mittlestadt. Many of us would agree that at this point in time, the Sabres appear to have “won” that trade, as Byram has found success on the Sabres while Mittelstadt has been up and down on the Avalanche – currently owning a team worst +/- stat. How willing would Colorado be to deal with the Sabres again?
There is a name being floated around that if the Avalanche don’t resign this player he will test free agency looking for a significant pay raise. If the Avalanche feel their money could be better spent elsewhere, or they don’t want to pay more than their current highest paid player (MacKinnon) it is very possible they will be looking to trade this player and recoup some valuable assets instead of losing him to free agency for nothing. One of the teams linked to the player in question is the Buffalo Sabres, and for good reason – the Sabres have some cap space to work with, and the young players & prospects to potentially make a deal happen.
To Buffalo: Mikko Rantanen –> with trade approval and a 7 year 96 million dollar extension in place.
To Colorado: Tage Thompson, Zach Benson, Isak Rosen, a 2025 2nd round draft pick, and a 2026 2nd round draft pick (with the condition to become a 2026 1st if the Sabres make the playoffs that year).
Trading for an elite player in the prime of their career isn’t cheap, and this trade should reflect this quite vividly. This type of trade also shows how wide of a tier gap there is between the Avalanche and the Sabres, at least in terms of forward star power. In order to make this trade work the Sabres have to give up arguably their top forward, plus a very young player in Benson with high potential, plus an upper level prospect. That is just the players portion of the deal, can’t forget about the addition of some valuable draft picks.
This may seem like an overpay, or maybe it doesn’t depending on how you look at it. Make no mistake, for the Sabres to acquire the services of Rantanen they will need to make a very enticing offer as other teams across the league with be vying for this star player’s services as well. If the Avalanche don’t feel they can come to an agreement that works for their own cap structure and future plans (Makar’s next contract), they will want to leverage the desire for a player of Rantanen’s caliber to ensure his loss isn’t without upside.
So why would Colorado trade away one of their best players? Contract AAV is a big factor, and rumors are out there of Rantanen of easily eclipsing the AAV of Mackinnon’s contract on his next and likely last big pay day. As per a few contract calculator sites out there, it is predicted that his next contract should be valued between 13-14 million per year. Additionally, while Rantanen is a dynamic and unique talent, they are still searching for secondary scoring beyond their top line. Thompson and Mittelstadt have some chemistry in the past, and both have played both center and wing. This type of move also speaks to the future of the organization, and building around the rise of Makar while having the money to pay him and not be unable to have other room for cap flexibility. Buffalo is certainly one of the top teams in terms of assets they could give up for Rantanen, and I think if Buffalo presented what is listed in this offer, it should give the Avalanche executives something to seriously consider.
Yes, Buffalo is giving up a lot in this trade. Yes, Tage Thompson has the potential to hit 50 goals in a single season. Yes, the Sabres are giving up young talented players with significant upside plus higher end draft picks. Lastly, yes, this is the bold trade the Sabres need to make to ensure this organization takes the next step to move forward. The current state of the Sabres organization, needs to recognize that it owes their fanbase every effort possible to finally become relevant again and attain a playoff position at the end of the season.
If and when the Sabres do make the playoffs, Rantanen is the exact type of player they would want on their team and not to be playing against. He is 6’4″ and 216lbs, in 81 career playoff games he has 101 points and is a plus 20. Additionally Rantanen’s play style is adaptable as in the regular season he has hit over 50 goals once and over 100 points twice. He can be used as either a playmaker or a sniper, and his hockey sense is elite where he has the ability to adapt on the fly.
If you were to look at the Sabres roster right now, only one player (Rasmus Dahlin) could be considered a consistent elite/star level performance, and that is while he is surrounded by a sub-par roster. Imagine the jump the Sabres could make if they were able to add a player like Rantanen to their roster. This would give an opportunity for their other young guns (Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, and even Kulich) to develop and have a star forward to emulate.
Now lets talk about the contract, I won’t pretend to be a wizard with some of the new nuances of deferred payments, but I will say the Sabres would be paying right around fair market value for Rantanen. His agent is looking to get 14 million AAV, and in this scenario negotiations ultimately land on the 7 year 96 million deal. This would be an AAV of 13.71 million, and with Rantanen currently in his prime at 28 years old – would last until he hits age 35 and his game with some likelihood starts to decline. Also, as a fun note, Rantanen wear’s number 96 and some hockey players (Sidney Crosby for example) like to align their contracts to their jersey number within reason.
Hoping everyone enjoyed reading this article. Thoughts on the value being given up (keeping in mind the agreed upon contract)? Thoughts on the contract length/AAV? Would either team say no to this deal, how far apart is either side?
As always, appreciate your opinions and love reading your alternative suggestions. Shout out to the Bills for beating the Ravens and advancing to the conference finals.
Go Sabres!!