Scary Good Sabres Have Some Areas of Concern
As the Olympic break continues, the Buffalo Sabres remain positioned in the top Wild Card spot, narrowly leading Boston by one point and Columbus by five. (cutoff line) The standings are remarkably tight; Buffalo sits just two points shy of Montreal and Detroit for the top-two and top-three seeds in the Atlantic Division. With such thin margins, the first week or two back will likely dictate whether the Sabres climb the divisional ranks or find themselves fighting to stay above the playoff line.
Currently holding a 32-19-6 record, the Sabres have earned 70 points through 57 games. To secure a postseason berth, they must maintain a similar pace over their final 25 games. While reaching the 100-point threshold—requiring roughly 15 more wins—would be a benchmark for playoff safety, this unconventional season offers no guarantees. Success in the home stretch will depend largely on how the Blue and Gold address lingering internal concerns as the pressure intensifies. As good as Buffalo has been, some areas of worry may require attention from the team, with a little fortune thrown in as well. How they manage them will be key.
1. Defensive Sustainability
Head coach Lindy Ruff is really working his top four defenders right now. Some might even say that he is OVERworking them. Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson, Bowen Byram, and Owen Power are all getting Major League minutes. Since December 1st, Buffalo D-men are all in the Top 60 defensemen for time on ice per games played in all situations. The Sabres are the only team with four defenders on that list. There are 5 or 6 teams that have three, and many more with two. But Buffalo leads the way with four.
On the flipside, the lowest-minute pairing in the NHL right now since December 1st has been Dec 1n and Zach Metsa. (with at least 50 min played) Not surprising, considering the data on Dahlin, Samuelsson, Byram, and Power. But is this a sustainable situation? It may even be a red flag. Can Ruff ride them out with that workload right into the playoffs, or will they fizzle out near the end? With Michael Kesselring in and out of the lineup in an uneven, “write off” type season, would a move to shore up the backend be beneficial? Metsa has been good in limited action but a solid defensive bruiser could help in more ways then one. Adding an experienced big man back there could not only boost the physicality of the team but also ease the high burden minutes of the top four. Does Buffalo keep them at workhorse-like levels, do or die, or does GMJK help balance out the defensive duties on this team with a trade? It would be nice to shave off a few minutes every night from our Big Four, to keep them fresh and reduce the chance of injuries. A more dependable bottom pairing who can carry more minutes would be a huge asset.
2. Everybody Hurts
The Sabres have had more than their share of injury setbacks this season. I would estimate Buffalo has not iced anywhere near a full, healthy lineup in more than a handful of games. For the most part, the team has patched those deficiencies with plug-and-play veterans and solid-looking prospects. They have remained afloat and even thrived at times. But if the Sabres truly want to bring this hoe to an end and breach that playoff barrier, they need all hands on deck. Or, at least, a good portion of them.
Buffalo currently has seven players listed on the Injury Report. This does not include Jordan Greenway (middle body), who has played on and off due to his load management. They include:
- Justin Danforth, F (lower body) – Out since Oct. 15
- Jiri Kulich, F (blood clot) – Out since Nov. 1
- Conor Timmins, D (broken leg) – Out since Dec. 18
- Josh Dunne, F (lower body) – Out since Jan. 12
- Josh Norris, F (upper body) – Out since Jan. 14
- Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen, G (lower body) – Out since Jan. 27
- Zach Benson, F (lower body) – Out since Feb. 2
That is a substantial amount of injuries for any team. But there are three big names on that list, to my eye. (and most of you as well, I’m sure) Josh Norris, Zach Benson, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are the standouts. That trio returning right after the Olympic break and playing well will have the biggest impact on the team’s fortunes. UPL’s return would solidify the goaltending once again and position the Sabres for that final push. I know he has his detractors, and I like what Colten Ellis might be one day, but the Lyon/Luukkonen dynamic duo is the way to go right now. That one-two punch is Buffalo’s best chance at the postseason.
With his high-level scoring and years of experience, Josh Norris is greatly needed back at work, too. If he can stay in the lineup these last 25 games, his impact will help the Sabres immensely. The top six will immediately get an offensive boost with Josh back in the fold. Thirdly, we cannot forget Zach Benson here, either. His speed, tenacity, and gorilla-sized heart are irreplaceable on the ice. He is also a creative, talented little spitfire of a player and a royal pain in the ass.
Getting these three players back, specifically after the break, will boost Buffalo’s roster the most. Thankfully, that looks like it is actually going to happen. According to Lindy Ruff (on Norris), “He would fully anticipate, after the Olympic break, he’ll be good.” On Benson, Lindy continued with the positive news. “I got a good report on [Benson],” Ruff said. “He should be back after the break, too.” The Sabres’ head coach added that the UPL injury was “nothing serious”. The time off should have Luukkonen ready to go at the end of the month. That would be a great shot in the arm for the team with three solid reinforcements and added depth. Buffalo has overcome the season-long rash of injuries so far, but it might be a matter of time before reality sinks its teeth into its sides. The combined return of Benson, Norris, and Luukkonen should lay the smackdown on any impending big bite.
The news on the other players isn’t as promising, but they are all getting closer. Greenway’s case is what it is, unless the Sabres and Jordan elect to do another surgery. He will play when he can and sit when he must. It sure would be nice to have the physicality of Timmins and Dunne back in the lineup as well. I really liked that 4th line of Krebs, Dunn,e and Beck. They work their tails off and provide some heavy grit out there on every shift. Kulich’s scoring touch would be nice to have again, but unfortunately, until he returns and shows he still has it, Jiri is a forgotten man right now. It’s a crowded, deep forward ranks, and Kulich will need to play his way back in.
3. The Tuch Factor
Speaking of the forward ranks, earlier this season, I wrote about Alex Tuch and how the Sabres should handle his expiring contract. I talked about the numbers for both the team and the player, the compromises that need to be made, trade value, and much more. I also stressed the importance of getting it all done before the trade deadline. Well, about that…. I no longer feel that way, and let me tell you exactly why. I neglected to factor in one important aspect of the Tuch equation… that the Buffalo Sabres would be in prime playoff contention with 25 games to go. I hope you will understand and forgive me for that.
Here is the deal. Alex Tuch is tied with Rasmus Dahlin for the second leading scorer on the team, behind only Tage Thompson. He is second in goals, and he plays in all aspects of the game. He is the veteran leadership we need; he kills penalties, plays on the power play, and is one of the best puck thieves in the NHL. He also wants to be here and is pretty much one of the faces of the franchise.
At this point, unless GMJK shocks us all by signing him to a fair deal, it might be best to address Tuch in the offseason. There are very limited benefits to moving Alex at this point. (though a sign and trade would bring more value back) I say this even with the risk of losing him for nothing in the summer. Why? The Sabres have a good thing going right now, and making the postseason has to be the team’s priority. Tuch is a huge factor in that, so why upset the apple cart? Moving out one of your top players might trigger too many shockwaves among this formerly fragile group. They are learning to win right before our eyes; they don’t need the extra jolt of losing Alex Tuch, AKA Mr. Buffalo Sabre, in the home stretch. It would make sense to keep the team focused and on the right track toward the postseason. Some minor moves could still help this team, but dealing out one of your best could hurt everyone.
Now, could Tuch still sign with Buffalo when the season is over? Yes, his stance may soften as the team’s success and subsequent return to the playoffs unfold. It may also dawn on him that the Sabres are still one of his best options for combined salary and success. (while staying close to home too) Let us all hope so. I want to keep him at a fair cost and term, without sacrificing too many other players to accommodate Alex. GMJK and Tuch will have to hammer out a compromise that works for both sides. If it is not meant to be, at least Buffalo gave it a shot. If Tuch is going to walk over his every demand not being met, well, you can play the bad guy role if you want and leave, I guess. I hope you weighed all the benefits you would be losing out on. If it ever comes to that, at least Alex and the Sabres ended the curse together. (anticipating that Buffalo makes it) This fanbase needs that more than anything else.
So there are your three areas of concern for the organization when play resumes at the end of the month. The overworked D, the injury issues, and how the team handles Tuch. May wise choices and fortune shine down upon our team.