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Introducing: GROSEK

Posted on by Jason Moser

Welp, I’ve done it. I’ve encorporated Michal Grosek into the blog. This piece, however, is not about the six-foot two Czech beauty. It is about how I will be projecting the 2019-2020 standings before and throughout the season using my statistical projection model – GROSEK.

So what is GROSEK? GROSEK stands for General Rank Of Statistical Ev……ok, I’m only kidding. I named it after the former Sabre. It is a projection model that caculates the value of each player in on-ice situations (even-strength, powerplay, and shorthanded) and applies these calculations based on the current projected lineup. This value for each team is then cross-referenced with the team’s remaining opponents. The season has yet to begin, of course, so right now we have a full-season projection for each team.

Since the current projected lineup isn’t necessarily the optimal lineup for each team, I’ve calculated a “variance” factor that will show a floor and ceiling for each team’s point totals as well. A team closer to their floor means that their player usage is poor, whereas a team closer to their ceiling shows that they are near to getting their best lineup on the ice.

So, basically, as we receive updated stats, updated standings, and updated lineups throughout the season, GROSEK will continue to recalculate the standings projections for each team. Pretty cool, huh?

There will be no more suprise risers (St. Louis) and fallers (Buffalo) throughout the season, because GROSEK should be able sniff it out. So who will be this year’s Blues and Sabres? Stay tuned as we progess week to week.

As for the current projections, let us divulge:

BOLD = Divisional Playoff Team
Italics = Wildcard Team

Pacific Division

  1. Vegas Golden Knights, 96 pts. (Floor 86 – Ceiling 102)
  2. Calgary Flames, 95 pts. (Floor 87 – Ceiling 99)
  3. San Jose Sharks, 93 pts. (Floor 90 – Ceiling 96)
  4. Vancouver Canucks, 91 pts. (Floor 82 – Ceiling 96)
  5. Arizona Coyotes, 90 pts. (Floor 80 – Ceiling 95)
  6. Anaheim Ducks, 88 pts. (Floor 73 – Ceiling 97)
  7. Los Angeles Kings, 78 pts. (Floor 73 – Ceiling 86)
  8. Edmonton Oilers, 75 pts. (Floor 69 – Ceiling 78)

Central Division

  1. St. Louis Blues, 106 pts. (Floor 99 – Ceiling 111)
  2. Nashville Predators, 99 pts. (Floor 92 – Ceiling 106)
  3. Minnesota Wild, 99 pts. (Floor 92 – Ceiling 103)
  4. Dallas Stars, 94 pts. (Floor 86 – Ceiling 99)
  5. Winnipeg Jets, 92 pts. (Floor 85 – Ceiling 97)
  6. Colorado Avalanche, 90 pts. (Floor 78 – Ceiling 98)
  7. Chicago Blackhawks, 90 pts. (Floor 83 – Ceiling 95)

Atlantic Division

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning, 130 pts. (Floor 120 – Ceiling 137)
  2. Boston Bruins, 129 pts. (Floor 113 – Ceiling 143)
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs, 107 pts. (Floor 98 – Ceiling 116)
  4. Florida Panthers, 99 pts. (Floor 89 – Ceiling 106)
  5. Buffalo Sabres, 88 pts. (Floor 79 – Ceiling 94)
  6. Montreal Canadiens, 80 pts. (Floor 64 – Ceiling 87)
  7. Ottawa Senators, 75 pts. (Floor 64 – Ceiling 82)
  8. Detroit Red Wings, 71 pts. (Floor 58 – Ceiling 76)

Metropolitan Division

  1. Washington Capitals, 114 pts. (Floor 109 – Ceiling 119)
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins, 100 pts. (Floor 97 – Ceiling 103)
  3. New Jersey Devils, 90 pts. (Floor 79 – Ceiling 101)
  4. Philadelphia Flyers, 89 pts. (Floor 80 – Ceiling 94)
  5. Carolina Hurricanes, 88 pts. (Floor 81 – Ceiling 93)
  6. Columbus Blue Jackets, 85 pts. (Floor 80 – Ceiling 89)
  7. New York Islanders, 84 pts. (Floor 80 – Ceiling 87)
  8. New York Rangers, 79 pts. (Floor 71 – Ceiling 85)

Talking Points