The Sabres are currently projected to have $13.21mil in cap space for next year, so moves will have to be made. Keep in mind I try to be conservative with any trade values/contract projections to account for natural bias/homerism.
Who I’d keep and how much they should cost:
Tuch: 7x$10.5mil, gone over this before but likely needs more than Kempe to stay.
Benson: 2x$5mil, have to bridge Benny and hope his offense doesn’t drive up the next contract too much/
Malenstyn: 3x$2mil, brings a lot to the team and is an ideal 4th line forward
Kesselring: 2x$2.4mil, his injuries likely work in our favor for any bridge deal
Dunne: 1x$1mil, Like what he’s bringing, important to be able to cycle energy guys in order to keep the 4th line running strong.
Rosen: 1x$0.875mil, will likely have a full time NHL spot since moves will be made
My preferred projection model from AFP hasn’t been released yet but I found another public model whose projections for players AFP has released, like Josh Doan, is very similar.
2026 NHL Free Agent Midseason Contract Predictions
Not signing:
Bryson has been a good fill-in but other defense prospects should be knocking on the door. If he’s willing to take the same contract I’m down, but for this exercise I’m assuming he looks for a better opportunity.
Krebs is tough to let go but with Kozak has earning his own roster spot and Danforth, who can contribute on the PK, still signed for next year, there isn’t for Krebs and his likely pay raise.
Zach Jones never cracked the big club but his point totals in Rochester are great, he likely looks elsewhere for a crack at an NHL spot.
This means I will need at least $20.9mil in cap space (Rosen’s contract won’t count against cap), or $7.7mil more than I have, so I suggest 2 moves.
Trades:
BUF Greenway, 2027 3rd <-> VAN Future Considerations
Model trade: DET Tarasenko <-> MIN Future Considerations. Greenway is the most obvious player to move, however his value couldn’t be much lower and our trade leverage equally so. Vancouver has a young starting lineup and could use his physical presence when healthy. They can spare the cap space next year since they won’t be competing until later and can also gain a draft asset.
BUF Zucker <-> MIN 2026 3rd
Model trade : EDM Arvidsson <-> BOS 2027 5th. Another tough decision, but Zucker is the most easily moved and replaced forward on the roster. His point production is high due to his 70%oZs, 18.8%sh, and 18/27 points on the PP, all of which I would expect to decline entering his age 35 season. That being said he still has value to teams in contention and we would be selling him high. He has a 5 team no trade clause but would likely waive it to go back to where his NHL career started with MIN who is now a contender. The Wild will need veteran forwards to replace Tarasenko, Johansson, and Zuccarello, but likely won’t want many contracts that carry into 2027-28 until they figure out the Quinn Hughes and Jesper Wallstedt extensions. Zucker would be a good fit there without costing a significant asset, and Buffalo can recover what it costs to move Greenway.
This puts me at $21.95mil, just a bit above what I need to achieve my desired roster.
Roster:
Forwards
Benson Thompson Tuch
Ostlund Norris Doan
Rosen/Kulich McLeod Quinn
Malenstyn Kozak Danforth
Dunne Helenius
Defense
Sammy Dahlin
Power Kesselring
Byram Timmins
Metsa/Johnson/Novikov/Komarov/Mrtka
Goalies
UPL/Lyon
Goalie situation will still be tough, at the end of the day I think you try Ellis through waivers and hope, if not I’m not torn up about it. If the roster continues to have success it looks like retention going into 2027 should be easier, with a projected $32mil in cap space (2026 goes down like this).
This should be enough to sign our choice of Byram, Rosen, Quinn, Ostlund, Kulich, and Timmins depending on how our prospects are doing. I feel like this would be the best way to keep the band together without making big changes, but I imagine GMJK will go for something different given his history.