DBTB –
Things have been quiet from me lately, but I’ve been slowly working my way through some of the comments after various games; the despair is evident, and the although the primary target of fandom’s rage seems to deviate indiscriminately, it focuses mostly on Terry Pegula (nothing you can do there, sorry to say), Kevyn Adams (likewise), and then alternately Ruff, the assistant coaches, the players, former players, future players, even other fans. And Sabretooth, of course. Only the equipment guys and the anthem singer manage to avoid the anger of the fans.
I would estimate that this season is pretty much a lost one already. The only thing saving the Sabres are this point is the general mediocrity that is the Eastern Conference. Put it this way, if the Sabres were somehow to win a modest four in a row (including the Islanders game), they could jump to 10th in the East, a point out of 9th. But that would of course require all those teams they could conceivably pass to win one or no games in the process. So all is not lost, but it is a steep hill (mountain?) to climb!
Since it’s the end of the calendar year and we’re looking forward to 2025 (at least, in theory), let’s fast forward to next season for the Sabres and see what things look like for the NHL’s youngest team.
I’ve seen lots of ideas from lots of people in the last month or so. Trade any or all of Tage, Tuch, Cozens, Kulich, Peterka, Byram, Sammy, and Power. Get more veterans (somehow). Let Ruff hire his own assistants (as if he wasn’t given that option). Fire Ruff, or Adams. Or both. Run the owner out of town (not going to happen). All the usual fist-shaking and tooth-gnashing. So here’s a GM For A Day, End of the Calendar Year edition to chew on.
First, Adams will have a lot of decisions to make. And I have no doubt Adams will be the one making the decisions in terms of day-to-day personnel management and roster building. Yes, Pegula will be consulted. Maybe even involved. I could be wrong – it happens all the time, you know! – but that’s my read on the situation. But he has some contracts for key guys in both UFA and RFA coming up this off-season. The Skinner buy-out jumps up by $3M from $1.4M to $4.4M next season. But the Cap is predicted to rise to $92.4M, and that’s at the low-end. Which should take care of the Skinner bump, and then some.
Here’s what’s on the table this coming off-season (just from guys who’ve played a game for the Sabres this year):
RFAs:
Ryan McLeod
Jack Quinn
JJ Peterka
Tyson Kozak
Ryan Johnson
Bowen Byram
Devon Levi
UFAs:
Jordan Greenway
Jason Zucker
Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Dennis Gilbert
Jacob Bryson
Henri Jokiharju
James Reimer
Wow. That’s a lot of bodies. The first thing I’m going to do is lock up my key guys. Players crucial to what I’m building.
Ryan McLeod: 3 years @ $3.4M. McLeod has been an excellent 3C, 4C, penalty killer, and defender. He’s on pace for a career high in points with a rotating cast of line-mates. And he’s only 25. For this team, he’s the perfect 3C. I’m locking him in.
Bowen Byram: 5 years @ $6.8M. This was tough, as finding comps for Byram wasn’t easy. Most stud defenders get long-term extensions coming out of their ELCs, but Byram’s health issues and Colorado’s Cap restrictions forced him into a bridge deal. But Byram’s been one of the Sabres 3-4 best players all year, he’s a dynamite two-way defender with elite traits, and has remained healthy all season for the Sabres despite sometimes getting overused. He’s also on pace for a career high 40P season. Will anchor a Top 4 pair for the Sabres for years to come. And he’s only 23. The closest thing I could find to him was something like Vince Dunn in Seattle. And last off-season, Dunn signed a 4 year, $7.35M deal. Yet that was all UFA years. So with this deal, I get 2 years of team control as RFA years and then 3 of UFA. So the price goes down a bit. But it’s money well spent on a really strong player.
Devon Levi: 2 years @ $1.5M. Whether heir apparent between the pipes or just a part of a two-goalie tandem, Levi has an important role to play in the future. But whether that future is now is unclear. He’s clearly a top talent in the AHL, where his numbers are excellent. But is he ready for 30+ starts in the NHL yet? Maybe. This gives the Sabres some options if they want to bring him up to start the year (again) as the #2. But also keeps him in the fold as an RFA even after this deal expires, so he’ll remain under team control when his next deal comes up…just like they did (wisely) with UPL.
Kyle Palmieri: 2 years @ $6.2M, NMC. I hate to lose Jason Zucker, who has been a revelation in BFLO and is on pace for his best season since 2017 in Minnesota (where he scored 33G), he’s been an engine on what has been a bad team for most of the season, and his enthusiasm never seems to wane. But the fact is, he’s only 5’11, he’ll be 34 at the end of next season, and has missed almost 140 games in the past 5 seasons. So I’m going to try to upgrade: Palmieri is in the same age bracket, but he’s on pace for more points on a terrible offensive team. Not to mention he scored 30G last season. And you know he wants to grow out that beard again, and Lou won’t let him. Hopefully I can incentivize him by promising I’ll move him to a team that he has to approve if things go into a death spiral. With this salary, I can retain half and he’ll be a bargain at the Trade Deadline. And he’s played in 71 playoff games over his career. This way, I get to keep my veteran presence (he wore a letter in New Jersey for several years) that this team so desperately needs, and potentially add some scoring as well.
OK, so I’ve got those guys. Now I want to add some balance to my back-end. I’ve got a trio of elite puck moving, offensive-minded guys (Dahlin, Power, and Byram). I’ve got a steady, if injury prone, defense-first Samuelsson. But I need another one of those. This will seem like an overpay, but you gotta give to get.
TRADE: BFLO JJ Peterka, Isak Rosen, 2025 2nd -> VGK Zach Whitecloud.
Whitecloud has no trade protection, so he can’t veto a trade, and Vegas has a substitute in the pipeline that’s ready to take over in a bottom pair, full-time role on the right side (Kaeden Korczak). The Knights have probably the best center group 1-4 with Eichel, Hertl, Karlsson and Nic Roy. But they only barely managed to cobble together a group of Top 9 wings with old pal Victor Olofsson and off-the-scrap-heap Tanner Pearson. Even with that, the only real threats they have coming off the wing are perpetually injured Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev, and rising star Pavel Dorofeyev. Peterka gives them a young player who could easily crack 30G, you can sign him for a reasonable amount, and you add a young AHL All-Star forward to your currently thin group of prospects. JJ immediately slots in on the top line with Eichel and Barbashev.
The Sabres get a 28-year old right-shot D who is under contract for 3 more years at $2.75M. A bargain. He’s a physical (6’2, 220#), defense-first guy with a career high of 19P. But he’s played in 67 playoff games in the past 4 years. He could play with Dahlin, Power or Byram and slot right in as a 2nd pair guy who plays a simple, effective game. This should add some balance to the blueline, and it’s a subtle Adams move that isn’t going to wow the casual fan (like McLeod and Greenway before him) but matters when it comes to roster building.
Now, let’s look at what I’m going to let go:
Aube-Kubel
Jokiharju (probably traded at the Deadline anyways)
Bryson
Reimer
At this point, here’s my roster:
Tuch – Tage – Palmieri
Benson – Cozie – ?
Kulich – McLeod – ?
Malenstyn – Krebs – ?
Lafferty – ?
Power – Dahlin
Byram – Whitecloud
Sammy – Clifton
?
UPL – Levi
I want to promote from within, but also bring in some additional veteran presence. Let’s try to do both.
Jack Quinn: 3 years @ $2.1M. A colossal let-down this season, Quinn remains a former Top 10 pick who’s struggled with injuries and consistency. He only managed 28 games last year and has been healthy scratched multiple games this season. So coming off his ELC, he’s got a lot to prove. I’m lowballing him, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of ground to stand on. If he blows up, once we hit the back-end of this deal, the Skinner buyout won’t have much of an effect on the Cap and the money will be there to substantially increase his bag. If he doesn’t…well, I guess we’ll have to find a change of scenery for him.
Jordan Greenway: 2 years @ $2.9M. A small raise for a guy who’s size, physicality, and penalty killing are much needed by this forward group. Unfortunately, he’s a player whose intensity can lag, and staying healthy is a problem. He’s missed at least 15 games a season every year since 2018, and would be coming off a season where he missed around half the year. Not many teams will give him a multi-year deal at this number. And I think he’s enjoyed his time in BFLO. Even 65 games with Greenway in the line-up is better than trying to find a replacement with the same skill set.
Dennis Gilbert: 1 year @ $810K. The big kid from Buffalo hasn’t looked out of place with reduced minutes. He’s a nice 7th defender, can slot in and add physicality and a reliable, simple game with a bit of flair, and he comes cheap. And if either Ryan Johnson or Nikita Novikov force their way up to the NHL, Gilbert probably clears waivers and helps the Amerks in the interim.
UFA: Alex Iafallo, WIN: 2 years @ $2.45M. Bringing the hometown boy back to end the drought? They couldn’t convince Patrick Kane, but it just might work with Eden native Iafallo. A guy who can play anywhere and everywhere, Iafallo can slot in from the 2nd to the 4th line, wing or center, and PK like a boss. His numbers aren’t great – on pace for about the same as last season, 27P. So that should keep his contract down. But he’s a nice, versatile player on the tail end of his career. Why not come home?
Lukas Rousek: 1 year @ $775K. He’s a kid that will be 26 next season. Knows the system, knows Appert, knows the players. Plays with speed, some grit, and has a little bit of offense in his game. Can play either wing. Comes cheap. This is his last chance in the organization, so he’s my 14th forward.
So, much like this past off-season, Adams makes a trade (Whitecloud = Malenstyn), and picks up a couple free agents (Gilbert, Zucker, Lafferty = Iafallo, Palmieri). Now he’s got a number of veteran guys who know their roles, and time to develop some of the youngsters (Power, UPL, Levi, RyJo, Kulich, Benson, Quinn, Cozie). Here’s what the final roster looks like for Opening Night:
Tuch – Tage – Palmieri
Benson – Cozens – Quinn
Kulich – McLeod – Greenway
Iafallo – Krebs – Malenstyn
Rousek – Laffy
Power – Dahlin
Byram – Whitecloud
Sammy – Clifton
Gilbert
UPL – Levi
Cap Hit: $91.75M (leaves BFLO with $650K in Cap Space), which includes Skinner’s $4.4M hit.