Navy’s GMFAD As we careen towards the end of another season of futility,nand the start of spring about to hit, it is the perfect time to look towardsnchange and a new beginning.
First things first, we are heading into the season with Ruffnas HC and Adams as GM. Right, wrong,nindifferent, it is what it is….for now. nThere should be some changes in the assistant coaches, but overall it’llnbe the same look. Also, and suggested deals are in the neighborhood of where the price would be, I know it won’t be exact, and suggested ones don’t take complete cap implications into consideration (TLDR, they’re an approximation).
Lotto and Draft
(I’ll leave the detailed breakdowns to those much smarter onnprospects, and arguably more eloquent, to our resident draftniks here)
The draft seems to have a very good (not great) top 5 tonchoose from, and has a clear drop off after that. C and G seems to be very good this draft,nwhile RHD and LW seem to be a bit lesser compared to other drafts.
Running Tankathon, we pull a mini miracle. San Jose stays #1 overall, but we pull #2n(moving up 5 spots currently, leaving CHI, NSH, SEA, BOS, and PHI all droppingn1 spot). San Jose chooses Schaefern(compared to Miro Heiskanen) at #1, leaving Buffalo to choose at #2…..
Porter Matrone, RW, Brampton (Interesting fact, his dad wasna 4th Round pick of ours in the past)
Now he is not the perfect prospect (i.e. skating can benimproved, tempo can be more consistent), but he brings skill and physicalitynthat the Sabres could truly use in their top-6. nThree players he is compared to: Corey Perry, Matt and Brady Tkachuk. He also isn’t another sub-6’ C that thenSabres’ draft model seems to always point them to in the 1st Round.n(As an analyst in my day job, it drives me insane they haven’t challenged theirnmodel when it keeps pointing to the same player type over and over)
(Other options could be Misa as my 2nd choicen[compared to Seguin], and Desnoyers as my 3rd [compared tonHischier])
For the rest of the draft we have 1x 2nd, 1x 3rd,n2x 4th, 1x 5th, 1x 6th, and 3x 7th. Looking at the organizational depth ofnprospects, I’d expect we look to fill gaps (again, Navy’s methodology, not thenunchallenged GMKA draft model) with tenacity, size, a couple RHD, and at leastnanother good G prospect with one of the round 4 picks.
Free Agency
UFA’s:
Bryson: He may be gone. nI know he signed a lower level deal, but he can/probably should be movednon from. Not a major loss, but certainlyna minor one on the depth side.
Reimer: He’s been a decent backup, but I think he moves ontonanother team as a 3G that fights for a backup role, or retires. Sad considering how well he has playednlately, but he may want to be on a better team for a final run at a cup.
Jobst: Decent vet presence in Roch, would re-sign if he isnwilling.
Rousek: Doesn’t seem like he can fully crack a role on ournbad team. We will offer something, but Insee him moving on.
Ruotsalainen: Gone
Clague: Good depth option, but I can see him moving on. 30-70 we are able to re-sign him.
Rathbone: Decent AHLer that used to have NHL hype innVAN. Re-sign him for 2 years.
Sandstrom: Been solid, and although he may want to get a bitnmore time to try to get a full time NHL spot, maybe a 2 year extension can getnit done.
RFA’s:
McLeod: A seemingly good trade for GMKA, as McLeod has solidifiednthe 3C position, with the ability to move between 2nd and 4thnlines as needed. Coming off $2.1M, I seenroughly a 4x $4.5M deal that will take him to 29 years old, allowing him toncash in once more, and buys 2 years of UFA status.
Quinn: Ooph, this has not been a year Quinn wanted. He was probably not fully healthy after hisninjury, as achilles are definitely not just a 6 month recovery time, but still,nmuch more was expected of him this year. nLooking at a 2x $2M bridge deal as the top offer to him, with ideallynmore around 2x $1.5M. Give a bit more tonhopefully infuse some organizational confidence into a former 1stnrounder. Worst-case, low-cost deal thatncan be moved at trade deadline or following summer.
Peterka: One of the few brighter spots this year, thoughnthere are rumblings he may not want to be here for the long run, to go alongnwith a lot of teams looking to poach him. nHis overall effort could be better on a game to game basis, but rinsenrepeat that sentiment for 95% of this team. nI’m betting on this shooter to keep moving up. 4x $4.75M deal ensures a good raise for JJ,nand keeps him around on an increasingly manageable contract that can benraised/extended if his growth continues.
Kozak: Not sure he may be more than a 3rd/4thnline energy guy at most, but he can still grow into more and shouldn’t be toonexpensive to extend. 2x $1.25M, withnfirst year being a 2 way deal.
Byram: Here we have arguably the biggest decision of thenoffseason, and what looks right with Bo. nHe has gotten so much better this season, but is also desired by othernteams, and do we want 3 LHD locked in longterm? As much as he is desired bynother teams, I don’t think we would be able to get the better end of any deal,nso as long as he is willing to sign, I’d give him 5x $8M. I know that may not get it across the line,nbut I’d be willing to go up to near Power’sndeal of $8.35M still around 5 years. Ingive pause on over $8M due to his concussion history, but I would work with himnto see what feels like the best deal for both sides.
Bernard-Docker: Have to extend him since he was part of thenCozens deal (least for sanity’s sake). n3x $2.5M to get him a year past UFA, and gives us time to evaluate. Worst case he takes Clifton’s spot.
Kisakov: Haven’tnwatched many ROCH games this season, so I’ll defer to those DBTB’ers whomnhave. I know he hasn’t played much thisnseason, so I’d say 2x minimum deal.
MacArthur: Mainly down in JAX, and seems just like annAHL/ECHL tweener. Keep on cheap, or not.
Tullio: Part of the McLeod/Savoie deal that hasn’t reallynclicked. Was loaned to CGY in thenAHL. Don’t re-sign.
Johnson: Doesn’t seem like he will ever take that next stepnin our organization and could use a change of scenery. Use him in part of a trade package.
Brannstrom: Good depth defense who can contributenoffensively. Can be a good 7D, or 3rdnpairing guy, but not the top 4 he was drafted to be. 3x $1.25M, or at least give him a QO.
Levi: Hopefully after going down to ROCH and excelling hasnrebuilt his confidence a bit. Now is thentime to show he is ready full time to contribute to the big team. He won’t be a 1B next year, but should stillnhelp take a few more games from UPL than Reimer has as the 2. 3x$2.5M or about to see if he can form a goodntandem with UPL for the next few years.
Trades:
This is where we shake things up a bit. I don’t plan to use 1st or 2ndnin 2025 (average to above average draft, so not necessarily desirable picksnanyways), but all for leveraging 2026 in the right deal.
UTH: Kesselring, Crouse, 2026 2nd (NYR)
BUF: Samuelsson (25% retained), Ostlund, 2026 1stn(top-10 protected, shifts to 2027 1st unprotected if top 10 in 2026)n
2 things this team has desperately needed are a good RHD,ntoughness, and net front presence type players. nKesselring is younger, but has upside and brings a bit of toughness thatnwe expected from Clifton but haven’t really gotten. Crouse gives toughness, leadership, and a netnfront presence. He isn’t a topline guy,nbut is a solid middle-6 winger that can help fill gaps in this team that wenhave been screaming to be filled (and yes I’m aware he has been benched a bit,nwhich maybe shows he needs a change as well).
Sammy has faded on our team to say the least, which is whynwe need to attach a bit more, while retaining some salary. He screams needing a change of scenery, wherenmaybe he can kick the injury bug and be a bit more comfortable on an up andncoming team with less responsibility. nLosing Ostlund and a 1st hurts, but RHD (with term!) are hardnto come by, and teams have us by the huevos to say the least. If pick ends up being in 2026, that’d givenUtah at least 2 picks in each of the first 3 rounds!
CHI: Rights to Adam Gajan, 2026th 2ndn(TOR)
BUF: Lafferty, RFA Rights to Johnson, 2026 4th (EDM)
CHI has Knight and Brossoit for the next few seasons,nSoderblom an RFA that should be re-signed, and Commesso on the way. The saying of you can never have enoughngoaltenders is true to a point. CHInreally needs to move one and add pieces around to help pull themselves out ofnthe basement. Gajan would give us angoalie prospect in college (hopefully not a trifecta of defections in the end)nand put another solid prospect several years away, putting him in the timelinenof Ratzlaff and Leinonen; given the later’s struggles, a higher prospect tondevelop wouldn’t be a bad idea. Thenhigher 2nd round pick (near 3rd rounder most likely allowsnus to pull a 2nd vice 3rd from CHI. Lafferty has struggled to establish himselfnin a regular role with us but can help CHI (again) with some speed in theirnbottom 6, and Johnson can give them some help on the backend. This helps clear out some roster space for anyounger FWD in the bottom 6 (Kozak?), and gets Johnson for some sort of returnnvice losing him for free the following season.
NSH: Kalan Lind, RFA rights to Luke Prokop, 2026thn2nd (MIN)
BUF: RFA rights to Jack Quinn, 2026th 4thn(ours)
This is a move by two teams that need a jolt and will use answap of RFA players to see if it can result in a reclamation, with a solidnprospect to add to the group. Quinn hasnseemingly played himself out, especially with his recent behavior and beingnlate to meetings over it. He still hasnsome value, but certainly not as much as he did before, but for a NSH team thatnneeds a massive jolt after a highly disappointing year, he represents a highnupside reclamation. Given his pedigreenand upside, we should be able to get the increase in pick position in this swap,nbut sadly not a ton IRT high end immediate help in return. Lind is a solid prospect playing for Red Deernthis year as a former 2nd rounder. nHe is a LW with a Power Forward game with secondary scoring level contributionsnand should graduate to the AHL level next year. nProkop is something we need more of in our system, a hulking RHD withnupside. He is definitely more of andefensive d-man, but as a past 3rd round pick, still has some roomnfor growth, and could be up in BUF after a year in ROCH.
CBJ: 2027 3rd (BOS)
BUF: Clifton
Disappointing sums up Clifton’s tenure with the team. This move helps add over $3M to CBJ’s bottomnline and help them get up over the cap floor, and get us out of the $3M.
UFA’s
Ekblad: 3x$7M. Am Inseriously considering a top 4 D of ~$34M? nYes, yes I am. Ekblad will helpnpresent another RHD with leadership experience that is towards the end of hisncareer (hence the overpay to get him to BUF), but a 3 year deal would let himncash in on one last deal after this.
Allen: 2x $3M. WithnReimer probably moving on, I’m locking onto Allen. He has played fairly well in NJ, and couldnget a more even playing time here with UPL taking a step back from as manynstarts as he has had this year. nHandshake agreement that if we are out of it, trade him to a contendernat the deadline. (Lyon and Freddie Andersen other options)
Depth Chart:
JJP – Norris – TTnBenson – Kulich – TuchnZucker – McLeod – GreenwaynCrouse – Krebs – Malenstyn
Rosen, Kozak
Dahlin – KesselringnByrum – EkbladnPower – JBD
Bryson
UPL – Allen
Levi
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