Introduction and Objectives
We’re just about at the end of yet another season of disappointment for the Sabres. Despite an impressive post-deadline surge, the team was basically out of the playoffs with that 13-game losing streak in December and January. If not then, then they were definitely out after losing three straight to Montreal and San Jose. While some of the problems were caused by injuries, particularly to Rasmus Dahlin, not to mention Dylan Cozens just straight-up leaving his brain at the door all year, the drought has gone on too long to just blame this season on those issues. If the drought is to finally end next year, I think the following objectives need to be met:
(1) Balance out and improve the defense corps: The Sabres simply have too many offense-minded defensemen and not enough who are defenders first. Also, those defensemen who are supposed to be defense-first have had poor seasons, namely Clifton and (though he’s been better lately) Samuelsson.
(2) Upgrade the goaltending: This is pretty straightforward. Levi has been brilliant in Rochester but clearly wasn’t ready for the NHL yet. Reimer came on at the end of the year but took a long time to get going. UPL was decent for a stretch but absolutely awful the last few months of the season.
(3) Get to at least league-average special teams: The Sabres are on track to finish 3rd in the NHL in five-on-five scoring. So why aren’t they close to the playoffs? Their power play, even with a late surge, is a whopping 25th. Even going to just 16th would be an extra dozen goals. The penalty kill is an even bigger problem, as not only do the Sabres lead the league in penalty minutes, but the kill is 24th. While Tuch and McLeod are brilliant penalty killers, they’re clearly not enough on their own.
(4) Balance out the forward corps: This is a tier below the first three, but still worth noting for me. The Sabres have a ton of shoot-first players in Tage, Tuch, Peterka, Norris, Quinn, Kulich, and Zucker, and only one real playmaker in Benson, though McLeod has done a passable impression this season. Having a closer balance would help against the risk of Benson being injured, and probably help the power play as well.
Draft Night
With the (estimated) 8th pick in the 2025 draft, the Buffalo Sabres select:
RHD Radim Mrtka, Seattle Thunderbirds
Mrtka is comfortably the second-best defenseman in this draft. While he doesn’t have the flash that Schaefer does, he still has plenty of skill, scoring almost a point per game as a 17-year-old in the WHL this season. Oh, and did I mention he’s 6’5”, 215 and doesn’t turn 18 until June? His potential is through the roof and he has even more time to refine his game than normal due to his late birthday, particularly his shot (which isn’t very good) and his skating (which is good, but not to say, Owen Power’s level). I see him as a long-term partner for one of Dahlin or Power, though it probably won’t be for 2, or more likely 3, years.
I thought about Caleb Desnoyers here, but view him as too similar to Helenius and McLeod in terms of offensive upside. I also thought strongly about Roger McQueen, but I’ve had enough hyper-talented centers with back problems for one lifetime. That said, I wouldn’t be upset if the Sabres chose either.
While I don’t know enough about the later round prospects right to have any later picks, I do have a few draft night trades to announce:
To BUF: RW Joey Muldowney, 2025 2nd (OTT)
To SJS: G Ukko Pekka Luukkonen
This is primarily a cap dump, but the Sabres do get a pick plus an intriguing prospect. Joey Muldowney, even though he’s nothing like his UConn teammate Jake Richard physically nor stylistically, is a fellow 6th rounder who absolutely exploded offensively this past season, scoring 29 goals and 47 points in just 37 games. He probably needs another year, possibly two, in college to develop physically and round out his game, but there’s plenty of promise there. Plus I’m a big fan of getting local prospects, especially since college players often want to just go the UFA route, and Muldowney is from Lake View. The Sharks are willing to part with him because he’s redundant in their system with Will Smith, Eklund, Musty, etc.
The Sharks will have $18 million to spend just to hit the cap floor and will need a goalie to pair with Askarov, who will be cheap in the near term to make up for UPL’s cap hit. They also have a ton of excellent prospects (Muldowney isn’t even their best one who’s from WNY) so they wouldn’t have a problem giving one up. The Sharks have two 1sts and two 2nds this draft, so giving up the worst of those four picks shouldn’t be an issue either. Needless to say, the Sharks are buying very low on UPL here, but the risk and financial obligations that come with his contract length, not to mention his recent performances, really drop his price.
To BUF: LHD Wyatt Kaiser
To CHI: RHD Connor Clifton, 2025 2nd (BUF)
Wyatt Kaiser has been a competent young defenseman over the past two seasons (think a lefty version of what Bernard-Docker has done for the Sabres). While the point production has not been there at all, with just 18 points in 95 games, his possession numbers are positive relative to his teammates, and that’s with less favorable zone starts, meaning that he can at least move the puck well, even if that just means he’s keeping it out of his own team’s net rather than putting it into the opponent’s. He’s also done well in limited penalty-killing minutes this season and would likely get more of them in Buffalo.
Despite his promise, I think Kaiser will be available because he has Vlasic, Korchinski, and Brodie ahead of him this coming season. Benching him won’t do him any good at this point in his career and he can’t be put on waivers. And even if Brodie leaves, Chicago has Del Mastro in the pipeline who’s got more promising physical traits. All this should lower Kaiser’s price. Also, the Hawks can afford Clifton’s cap hit even if he is more of a salary dump, with his presence on the blue line giving them a veteran partner for Korchinski, while also allowing their youngsters like Rinzel and Crevier (who unlike Kaiser, can be sent down without waivers) to marinate in the AHL for a season.
To BUF: 2026 7th
To SEA: F Sam Lafferty, 2025 4th (BUF)
This is just a cap dump, though Lafferty may have some value if he plays like he did in Chicago or at the end of the year in Buffalo. The Sabres will still have Minnesota’s 4th rounder in 2025.
RFA’s
W J.J. Peterka: 6 years/$6.5 million AAV
Peterka gets paid, but as a very good player, not an elite one. While Peterka is a proven finisher whose playmaking took a step up this season, his mediocre defensive play and still inconsistent decision-making have him paid at a second-liner’s rate. This deal gives the Sabres a discount in the short term, but also lets Peterka get a potentially huge UFA payday at age 28/29.
LHD Bowen Byram: 5 years/$6.5 million AAV
I based this off Sean Durzi’s 4 year/$6 million AAV contract with Utah, as I see them as similar players: very good offensively with defensive inconsistencies who are either a #2 defenseman on a top pair, or the lead player on a lower pair. Cap-wise, this is just under Clifton’s cap hit being added onto Byram’s current one.
C Ryan McLeod: 5 years/$5 million AAV
McLeod has outperformed almost everyone’s expectations, not only being the excellent skater and penalty killer he was in Edmonton, but blowing away his previous career highs in both goals and assists. He should be the Sabres’ 3C for quite some time.
RW Jack Quinn: 2 years/$2 million AAV
Quinn showed up at the end of the season and may well finally be over those terrible leg injuries from last season, but his very poor opening two-thirds of the season means that his cap hit will still be quite low.
RHD Jacob Bernard-Docker: 2 years/$2 million AAV
The real star of the Dylan Cozens trade has played pretty well for the Sabres thus far. While he’ll never be a top producer, his physicality and puck-moving ability are still valuable. Unlike Quinn, JBD’s $2 million payday doesn’t reflect him not reaching his potential, it reflects his low ceiling.
LHD Wyatt Kaiser, 2 years/$1.5 million AAV
I’ve already talked a lot about Kaiser, so I’ll keep this short. It’s a bridge deal for someone who right now is a competent third-pairing player. He may well more than double this contract by the end of it.
G Devon Levi: 1 year/$1 million
Levi gets paid as one of the best AHL goalies, which is exactly what he has been. I want him in Rochester for one more year, but won’t complain if he earns a spot in Buffalo.
LHD Ryan Johnson: 1 year/$950k
While he’s been unspectacular in Rochester, I’m willing to give him another year because I really believe in his skating ability and hockey sense, even if his offensive upside isn’t what Sabres fans were hoping for.
LHD Erik Brannstrom: 1 year/$950k
While he was an afterthought in the Cozens trade, Brannstrom has been very good for Rochester, as he is an excellent skater and good puck-mover. It’s worth bringing him back for another year to see if he’ll (finally) break out like he was supposed to as a prospect, though I’m not holding my breath.
C Tyson Kozak: 2 years/$900k AAV
The rare seventh-rounder who has made the NHL and even scored a few points. I like Kozak a lot, but he’s starting the year in Rochester, where he can hopefully refine his skating and offensive game. His defense and hockey sense are already good enough to be a full-time NHL player, and I think he’ll be a full-time NHL’er come the 2026-27 season.
Entry-Level Contracts
F Viljami Marjala: 3 years/$975k
Marjala was an afterthought for much of his time after being drafted, but two very strong seasons over in Finland, including almost going for a point per game this season, mean that he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s a slick skater and a better passer, but he’ll definitely need some time to get acclimated to North American ice and playing style, so ideally he’d start in Rochester on the wing rather than at center.
RW Jake Richard: 3 years/$975k AAV
A sleeper of a draft pick in the sixth round a few years ago, Richard has blown away expectations at UConn, scoring over a point per game as a sophomore, adding playmaking and solid defensive play to his already known shot and physicality. His skating was a question going in, and still somewhat is, but he’s certainly earned the chance to prove himself.
RHD Zach Metsa: 2 years/$975k AAV
If Zach Metsa were a few inches taller, he’d already be in the NHL. At 5’9”, he’s just such a smart player, and has added offensive production to that as an Amerk. I really hope he at least gets to at least make an NHL cameo. He’s more than earned one.
W Ethan Miedema: 3 years/$925k AAV
Just a nasty forward who absolutely plays like the 6’4”, 212 he’s listed at. While his production went up quite a bit this season, I’m not sure he’s got the offensive skill nor the hockey sense to make it at the NHL level. But I’m willing to take a flyer on the athleticism and the mentality. At worst I think he’ll be a Brett Murray replacement for the Amerks, and he was a very consistent contributor for them over the years.
C Matteo Constantini: 2 years/$900k AAV
After falling off a cliff as a sophomore at North Dakota, Constantini transferred to Western Michigan for his last two years. Not only did he start scoring again, but he was an alternate captain on a national championship winning team! He’s shown that he can be a capable two-way player who also produces, albeit not at an incredibly high clip. Not to mention that it’s always worth taking a shot on local talent and Constantini is from just across the border in Saint Catherine’s.
UFA’s
G Anton Forsberg: 2 years/$4 million AAV
Forsberg has had a very nice season for Ottawa, a team which didn’t give him a whole lot of defensive support. Without him and their power play, the Sabres and Sens may well be in opposite positions. His experience playing for a rather chaotic team like Ottawa should serve him well on the Sabres, who even with an upgraded defense corps will still be a run-and-gun sort of team.
G James Reimer: 1 year/$1.5 million
Reimer has earned another year with his excellent performance at the end of the season. He should be a dependable backup behind Forsberg, though I don’t expect him to play all of next season as well as he finished this one.
LHD Jon Merrill: 1 year/$1 million
One of my favorite unheralded players from the last decade. This is probably the third or fourth GMFAD where I’ve had the Sabres signing him. While Merrill can’t skate like he used to, his possession numbers are still solid and he’s also a very good penalty killer. He will bring some much-needed experience to a very young defense room.
F Mason Jobst: 2 years, $925k AAV
The Amerks captain (and my fellow Buckeye) has earned himself a nice extension. He will mentor Ostlund, Helenius, Neuchev, and the other forward prospects.
RW Martin Frk: 1 year/$875k
Frk has proven time and again that he’s a consistent AHL scorer, and will be the perfect linemate for the various skilled prospects that will be in Rochester.
RHD Brogan Rafferty: 1 year/$825k (AHL only)
Some veteran defensive depth for the Amerks. They already have plenty of puck moving skill, and while Rafferty has some offense, that won’t be his main job.
Trades
Even after all those signings and earlier trades, the roster isn’t finalized quite yet.
To BUF: RHD Johnathan Kovacevic
To NJ: RW Jack Quinn, W Isak Rosen
Kovacevic has all the makings of the perfect partner for Owen Power as a 6’5”, 223 lb defenseman who not only is very physical, but has excellent possession numbers despite starting in the D-zone more often than not. While he’s never going to light the world on fire offensively, that will be Power’s (or Dahlin’s) job anyway. He should immediately plug into the Sabres’ top four and provide the steadying influence they’ve needed for a very long time. Will he ever break 30 points in a season? Likely not. But the Sabres won’t be 30th in goals against either.
If he’s so great, then why would the Devils trade him? A few reasons. The first is money. They have about $15 million in cap space this offseason with 3 forwards, a defenseman, and a goalie to sign. That doesn’t sound so bad, but the defenseman is Luke Hughes, who will take probably about half of that amount. This trade gives them $17 million for Luke Hughes, another forward, and a goalie, allowing them to make another big move if they want to. Second is roster balance. Their lack of forward depth has been badly exposed this season after Jack Hughes’ injury, and adding two young, cheap players helps quite a bit with that, especially if Quinn is recovered from his injuries like he seems to be now. They also have a glut of RHD already with Hamilton, Pesce, Nemec, and Casey also due to make the roster next year, and Pesce playing basically the same role of Kovacevic. All those factors make him expendable.
To BUF: W Mattias Maccelli, F Kevin Stenlund, C Gabe Smith, 2026 2nd (middle of UTA, NYR, OTT)
To UTA: LHD Bowen Byram, W Lukas Rousek
Bowen Byram is a good player, but redundant for a Sabres team that already has Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, and he’s not shown he can run his own pair. Matias Maccelli has had a nightmare season, with his teammates shooting at roughly half their normal percentage in his career, and is also shooting below his normal rate himself. When he and his teammate’s aren’t snakebitten, Maccelli has shown to be a skilled middle-six forward who can chip in on the power play. He also is a pass-first player, (one season with 40 assists and another with 38), something the Sabres don’t have in their top nine besides Zach Benson. Stenlund is like a discount Greenway, as a very physical but heady player at 6’3” 215, albeit with limited offense. Like Greenway, Stenlund is a good penalty killer. His value is lower since as of now he’s only a one-season rental, though an extension isn’t totally out of the question. Gabe Smith has some potential to be Stenlund 2.0 as a fellow 6’3” forward who has some offense, but mainly wins with plenty of physicality and defense. He’s still probably 3 years from making the NHL, if he ever will. The Sabres also get a pick to make up for the gap in positional value between defense and wing.
Utah is a particularly good fit for Byram. They don’t have a solid LHD behind Sergachev, with Ian Cole on the verge of retirement and Olli Maata being the epitome of a third-pairing player for the last decade. They can also give Byram the kind of partner he needs with Marino or Kesselring. I thought about trading for Kesselring but I’ve seen that a lot of times already, so figured I’d go another route, plus I just like Kovavevic better. Rousek has shown he can at least play on the 4th line in the NHL, and he’s under team control for longer than Stenlund is. They also have 3 2nd’s next year and plenty of prospects, so parting with those pieces wouldn’t be a huge loss.
Opening Night Lineups
Rochester
Neuchev-Ostlund-Frk
Jobst-Helenius-Richard
Dunne-Kozak-Marjala
Kopff-Wahlberg-Nadeau
Bryson-Johnson
Novikov-Metsa
Brannstrom-Rafferty
Levi
Ratzlaff
Scratches: Constantini, Miedema, Komarov, Leinonen (ECHL)
This Amerks team has what it takes for another deep run. For the forwards, I went with the formula of two prospects and a vet (save for the fourth line), with a mix of skill sets on each line as well. Hopefully Helenius and Neuchev take another step forward and the college vets don’t need too much time to acclimate. I’m also intrigued to see how Wahlberg will do with a full season at center.
The defense has plenty of slick-skating puck-moving defensemen, with some physicality thrown in form Novikov and Rafferty. This unit probably won’t be the best penalty killers, but they’ll have the puck so often it shouldn’t be a big deal.
Levi should win whatever the AHL equivalent of the Vezina is, while Ratzlaff gets to learn primarily from the bench, playing probably 15 or 20 games in his first season. Leinonen needs more game time and he will get it in the ECHL, at least for one season.
Buffalo
Benson-Norris-Thompson
Peterka-McLeod-Tuch
Zucker-Kulich-Maccelli
Greenway-Krebs-Stenlund
Samuelsson-Dahlin
Power-Kovacevic
Kaiser-Bernard-Docker
Forsberg
Reimer
Scratches: Malenstyn, Merrill
Cap Hit: $92.3/$95.5 Million
Tage and Benson should always be linemates since their styles complement each other perfectly, and Norris should provide some extra defensive presence to make up for Tage’s deficiencies there, and also as another finisher for Benson’s passes. The second line will have ludicrous speed, with plenty of finish on the wings even if they don’t have a true playmaker. Kulich gets to play with two vets to help round out his game after a good rookie season this year. Maccelli gets to play with two goal-scorers to help him re-discover his game. Krebs should have his best-ever season with the two trees of Greenway and Stenlund flanking him, and they should be able to shut down most opposing second lines, with McLeod’s line taking the toughest matchups.
Dahlin has a real shot at the Norris next season, I don’t think I need to say much more. I know a lot of people want to get rid of Samuelsson, but his buyout at the end of the 2025-26 season is only $1.4M for 6 years, so I think it’s worth giving him one more chance, ideally with a new defensive assistant coach. Owen Power is probably the biggest beneficiary of this offseason, as besides Dahlin, Kovacevic will be the best partner he’s every had by a mile in terms of both talent and stylistic fit (no offense to Bernard-Docker, who’s done admirably this season). The third pair should be effectively anonymous. Both Kaiser and Bernard-Docker play the sort of game that doesn’t show up on either side of the scoresheet much, which is perfect given the other defensemen on the Sabres.
I’m still not in love with the goaltending, but it should be better than last year thanks to an improved defense, Forsberg being better than UPL, and Reimer staying in Buffalo for a full season.
Review
At the beginning of this post, I listed four objectives. How well did I meet them?
Objective 1: Balance out and Improve the Defense Corps
Verdict: Accomplished, at least ato a reasonable extent. There is some hope regarding a bounce-back season with Samuelsson, but I did swap out Byram for Kovacevic, which really balanced the defense corps stylistically. I also improved the third pairing by replacing Clifton with Kaiser, which will hopefully make the defense less top-heavy.
Objective 2: Upgrade the Goaltending
Verdict: Improved, but I still wouldn’t call the goaltending all that good. Forsberg is better than UPL, but is about an average starter. A full season of Reimer should be nice though. Much like the actual Sabres, a lot is hinging on Devon Levi’s development.
Objective 3: Get to at Least League-Average Special Teams
Verdict: The power play should be better, and the penalty kill should be outright good. On the power play, Norris’s return does a lot of the work here, but Maccelli doesn’t hurt either, as he has multiple seasons with 10+ power play assists. The penalty kill should be notably better with the additions of Stenlund, Kovacevic, Kaiser, and (for however long it lasts) a healthy Greenway.
Objective 4: Balance out the Forward Corps
Verdict: Replacing Quinn with Maccelli gave the team the playmaker they needed in the top 9, and between Tage, Tuch, Peterka, Norris, and Kulich, they still have plenty of finishers. Also, while Stenlund isn’t that different of a player than Lafferty or Malenstyn, he is considerably better than both of them, so ice time for the forwards should be more balanced next season.
So what do you think? Is this Sabres team good enough to make the playoffs or have I messed things up worse than R*lph Kr*eger? Let me know in the comments.
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