GMFAD Summer 2024
Hi guys,
Sabres’ headline today deserves a frank and honest reply. If you look deeply on their website, it reads, “Bob Sauve’s Stick replaces General Manager Kevin Adams in a desperate gasp for relevancy.” I think we can all agree this is a risky play by the Pegulas, but that leaked story isn’t fully accurate and it may have already been taken down. The reality is that I’ve only been hired as Assistant to the GM. This is officially my first ATGMFAD. I’ve been given full permission to make hypothetical moves that the team will certainly not take on its path towards being successful moving forward. With that in mind, I’ve broken down my approach to the team into two phases. The first phase plays out over the next two years, and after that the second phase kicks in. The second phase begins when the cap exceeds the expected $92 Million in 2026-27 (per capfriendly), but also with the large cap crunch coming from a Skinner buyout bolus.
This first phase rests on two 5% increases to reach $92Million in 2025-26. We are seeing the first of those increases to the cap this summer. The team ended this season with a cap hit of $75,031,660 and $8,468,340 remaining in space under the current cap. Adding the increased cap by $4,200,000 along with the contracts listed below coming off of the books will provide the Sabres with 32,423,895 in cap to use for filling out the roster in 2024-25. That number drops in 2025-26 because of resignings of some RFAs. I’ll follow up with my calculations below. I’ve basically got a few of my UFA signings as 1 year contracts, and I’ll be letting Greenway go after next year. The reason for the 2 year contracts is to adjust for the highest impact of the Skinner buyout (discussed below) in 2026-27. Those two year contracts will expire, and we will have lower cost ELC or RFA contracts to bridge us into phase 2 of the plan. I also think there is an opportunity to trade away players to adjust for cap space if my big ideas below need to clear a couple million in space. This all needs to be approached with a flexible mind. I think the numbers are close enough that they can work.
So, like many have suggested, it’s time to buy out Skinner. I would actually love to keep him as a player, but his contract is really just getting in the way, and he doesn’t play the 200 ft game needed to be competitive in all situations. If he could score at will, I wouldn’t mind his liabilities. In some small defense of his play, I have seen him commit to defending at times. He just can’t stick to it as a frame of mind, so he needs to exit the scene. As a result, I have the following contracts coming off the books:
Skinner = $9,000,000 (minus $1,444,454 penalty)
VO = $4,750,000
Bryson = $1,850,000 (fly be free, my man! You will find greatness, or you will be a casualty of GMs not seeing the true potential of the Bry-train.)
Stillman = $200,000
Jost – $2,000,000
Robinson = $1,600,000
Comrie = $1,800,000
[Buyout Cap hit for Skinner (so not a full $9M relief):
Years 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27: $1,444,445; $4,444,445; $6,444,445]. This drops again in 2027-28, so the pain is mostly over with that big $6.44M hit.
All of that equals: $-19,755,555 (contracts) + $4,200,000 (cap increase) + $8,468,340 (existing cap space currently) = 32,423,895 in cap to use this summer.
Most of these moves are self explanatory I hope. I really regret letting Bryson go, and I’d keep him if he were willing to take a reduction of salary. I expect he’ll want to try FA rather than taking $1.2M. Instead, I’m keeping Clague. I’m not committed to him long term, but he and Ryan Johnson will be the first to fill in when Sammy inevitably gets hurt again. It’s more than likely Clague will be let go as RyJo and the Russians (Novikov and Komarov) age in.
My move for this summer include the following:
I’m going to re-sign Jokiharu at 4 x $4M. That is likely to be a tradeable contract if necessary. Maybe Joker balks at it and signs only a 2 year deal. Whatever. Later in the post, I’m trying to dump him in a trade anyway. I’d love the 4×4 contract tho. Maybe we give him 4 x $5M. UPL will get 3 x $3.75M. Krebs gets a small raise at 2 x $1.5. Girgensons gets a pay cut at 1 x $1.8M (could see this being lower, but, like Larry many years back, I think he might walk out of spite and end up with a $900K contract in Utah. Regardless, he’s one of my 1 year contracts that will not be retained after this coming year. In total, these contracts cost $11,050,000 for 2024-25, which isn’t the full amount that could be spent on these guys, but 2025-26 has further RFA raises to be doled out.
I’ll also be re-signing Murray, Biro, Tokarski in Rochester at league minimum. They won’t count towards NHL cap tho.
In 2025-26, I’m planning to re-sign RFAs, Quinn, Peterka, and Byram, but not Greenway. I think we’ll be in the playoffs, so I’m not planning to trade Greeny away at the deadline of that year either. I’m expecting good raises for all of them if they stay on the roster and perform well:
Quinn = 3 x $4.5 – $5.5M;
Peterka = 3 x $4.5 – $5.5M;
Byram 4 x $6 – $7M.
Each of these are dependent on performance and injury status. There is a $2.5M cushion with several 1 year contracts coming off the books, so these can be adjusted as needed. If they all have solid years, I’d happily increase the term. These contracts take up any and all cushion that might seem to exist after my UFA signings below, which is why I don’t go further than I do with the following summertime moves. Mind you, I’m open to adjusting these contract numbers. I don’t want to pay for an Evolving Hockey subscription to see what the pros are estimating, but I’ll leave it to Karmanos and Adams to round out the edges and fit these moves to the full cap.
I think my general ideas are not bad, so don’t freak out and latch on to one disagreement. Look for the forest through the trees in all aspects of this GM for a day. The Sabres hired me for my ideas and not my use of spreadsheets. I’ve also taken on emptying garbage cans around Harbor Center as part of my gig, but I’m sure they’re mostly interested in my ideas over my trash collecting skills, right?
To start Phase 1, I would go for a big splash trade. Mathew Barzal has a $9.15M cap hit as a centerpiece on the Island. This is the last moment before a Modified No Trade Clause kicks in. I wonder if Lamoriello is regretting the length and cost of contracts. I don’t think he is interested in this trade unless it’s really good on its return, but if we can pry away a difference maker in his prime and lock him in until 2031, it’s worth looking at. To get quality, one has to give quality.
To Buffalo, Barzal and 2024 or ’25 2nd. To NYI, JJ Peterka, Henri Jokiharju, Jiri Kulich or Rosen, and 2024 1st. At first blush, that seems like a lot, but these are hard choices. I think both teams would think about this one… maybe. I personally think we could swap out Jokiharju with Byram if that were necessary. Also, feel free to adjust picks and personnel. I think this is the size of the package needed to get a guy like Barzal. It might not even be enough. If this trade goes through, it would take all of the extra $3.5M remaining in my calculations after 2025-26. Read on and you’ll see what I’m referring to.
I think this trade and my next UFA signing could both happen with some focused detail by Adams on cap signings overall. (Again, look for the forest, not the trees.) In my opinion, It would just force Ryan Johnson onto the NHL roster earlier than otherwise.
With that in mind, my next big move is a solid overpay to Patrick Kane. Yes, yes, he’s controversial, and he wants to play for a playoff team. However, I think we are a playoff team with him and the other moves below. I think he’ll enjoy the high overpay for 1 year’s time, thereby forgoing his desire for a 2-3 year contract. I think it will be more money than any team is going to pay. I’ve got him at 1 x 7M. If he plays hard ball, I’d sign him at 2 x $6M and adjust some of my other signings below as necessary. He’s a scoring winger. He’s also grown up a lot, and can now bring leadership. If things work out, I wouldn’t mind him seeing this overpay as a downpayment on an extension if the Sabres make a run in the playoffs. My alternate addition to Kane is Adam Henrique. He’d bring leadership, scoring, and gritty play in the Center position. I think he might be a little cheaper, but not that much. Either would be on a 1 year contract. The overpay fits into my cap calculations, but only for this 1 year. A 3rd option could be Stephenson from Vegas. I think he could be even cheaper at $5.5 – $6M, but he’ll want term, which we can’t offer. I think Kane and Henrique could be lured into short term with the overpay in a way the Stephenson couldn’t.
My second acquisition is Tyler Toffoli at 2 x $4M. I’m reuniting TT with Lindy in Buffalo! Right now, he’s making $2.215M. This is a big pay raise for him. I think there will be a lot of attention directed towards him, but I’m putting my hat in the ring to get a guy that can play up and down the line up in the top 9.
My big, hardnose signings are Cal Clutterbuck and Nick Cousins. Big Cal will wreak havoc as a bone crushing dinosaur on the ice. He’s an old man, but at 1 x $2.5M, I think he’ll fit nicely and happily into the lineup. If needed, I think he can be signed for $1.5 – $2M, but we have the cap for one year to ensure he signs. Again, this is Adams’ work.
Cousins is a tougher sell to me. I don’t know if we can get him away from Florida. However, I think more than doubling his pay down in Florida will be enticing even with the state taxes in NY. I’ve got him at 2 x $2.5M. Together, these guys really make our bottom 6 a lot tougher.
Tomas Tatar is the newest 200ft engine that will bring the right type of play right along Buffalo’s own strong motor, Benson. I’m signing Tatar at 2 x 2.2M. Again, I really would like to take a run at another Vegas player, Will Carrier; but, like Stephenson, he’s going to be looking for longer term, so Tatar is my guy.
All of this said, if the cap requires it, one of these signings can be scrapped and an AHL player can be elevated. I’d rather make the Barzal and Kane moves work and bring in a couple prospects than have Toffoli for example.
My final signing comes with goalie pads… Cam Talbot for 1 x $1.5. Rittich just re-signed with LA, and Talbot is without a contract. I don’t know what the plan is for Levi, but Kevin Adams really forced UPL to earn his spot with a lot of starts in the AHL. I think Levi might end up in that spot next year. Talbot will make a great backup, and could possibly be traded at the deadline if he has a decent year. Teams are always looking for playoff backup goalies. We can bring Levi up at that point and have the future tandem playing together for the end of the season and playoffs in 2024-25!
In the summer of 2025, Girgensons, Talbot, Clutterbuck, Kane/Henrique come off the books, and there’s enough cap room (between $2.5-3.5M) to re-sign Clutterbuck to a second year if he’s got the energy to keep going. This is the $3.5M I referenced above that would disappear with a Barzal Trade. I think the big Skinner penalty in 3 years prevents resigning any of them unless we scrap the Toffoli deal above. Again, I’m open to that if we can keep a play driver like Kane or Henrique. Mix and match as you like, there are a lot of meritable moves here.
Phase II will enjoin our skilled prospects rising to fill roles at low cost. Depending on the Barzal trade, I’m looking at Savoie, Ostlund, RyJo, Kulich, Rosen, and Levi in particular. Komorov, Novikov, Walberg, and another guy I’m rooting for, Nadeau, might be pushing for positions too. Don’t attack me on the Nadeau dream. I’d like a big power forward to develop within our system. Maybe that’s Walberg… but we need one of them to take a great step to drive play like Dakota Joshua. I would be taking a run at signing Joshua this summer, but the term and cost (5 x $5-6M) that he’s earned with his play this year wouldn’t really put the Sabres in a good position. He’s also not an adequate replacement for what Henrique/Kane would bring to the top of the lineup.
Well, there you have it. Keep criticisms directed at the ideas, not the author; but feel free to heap praise on the author AND ideas if you like the post. Peace, brothers and sisters. Keep the faith that next year will be a better year.
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