Norris, McLeod, Kulich and Krebs in the Middle
Tage Thompson certainly took off in his career with a move to center. When the season starts in October, he will seemingly be affixed to the right side now. Due to last season’s injuries, the team wanted him to avoid taking draws, aggravating the problem. So he moved to the wing and performed well there for the most part. This opened the door for newcomer Josh Norris to take the number one center spot. This did not last long as we all know. Norris went out quickly with a lingering injury from earlier in the season. Rookie Jiri Kulich spent a good amount of time filling in there too and acquitted himself just fine. Ryan McLeod played the top center spot as well and did not look out of place. As expected though, none of them performed offensively at the level Thompson has over the past four seasons. One of them (Norris, Kulich most likely) will need to step up and become more of a force on the top line. Depending on who you talk to, it seems either have a legitimate shot of number one center. Paycheck wise, it seems it is Josh Norris’s job to lose. (Hopefully not to injury) In my opinion, the Sabres plan to use the well paid Norris with TNT on line one. This seems like Buffalo’s best chance for success to me.
With half a summer to go, I thought I would take a look at the men in the middle for Buffalo this season. What to expect and what to hope for. The Sabres will need great performances from all of them if they want to end this eternal misery.
Peyton Krebs
I will work from the bottom up on this. The 24 year old Krebs posted his best stat line in the NHL last season. From mostly the 4th line, Peyton had 10 goals, 18 assists and 28 points. It is widely accepted now that the former first round pick of Vegas will never live up to his billing offensively. But he has embraced a different role with Buffalo and is pretty good at it. Krebs brings hard work, solid defensive play, physicality and surprising leadership for a young player. He plays like a big kid out there, with spirit and love for the game. But like a big kid, he still makes his share of mistakes. Seems like he is good for one knucklehead giveaway a game. Along with one poor decision elsewhere. But his hard work and determination tends to level out the mistakes. Going into his 5th full season now, I expect Krebs to mature even more. If he can play smarter and correct his errors, I suspect his offensive number to climb a little higher. Even within his defensive role that he really seems to love. His experience should really start to show more. Krebs is capable of 15 goals and 40 points but things will have to align perfectly for that to happen. I feel that 13 goals and 35 points is more probable.
Peyton enjoys being a Sabre and he loves coming to the rink and giving his all. It’s time to set aside his expectations and embrace the player he is. A young 4th liner who busts his butt, does what is asked of him and chips in with some points now and them. If he can creep up to become a 35-40 point player and still handle the rest of his duties (solid forecheck, hitting, defensive game, standing up for teammates) I’m good with it. This guy has an impact on the game, many times without any points scored. Let him play his role while hopefully finding the net a little more often. All while on a cheap contract.
Jiri Kulich
Some have argued between Norris and Kulich for number one center. Many more have done the same for the 2nd and 3rd line pivot men as well. Even though I love Kulich’s game, he has much less experience than Ryan McLeod. And he certainly isn’t paid like him yet either, being on his entry level deal. These two may end up switching out all season long, depending on the circumstances. For now though, I’m going with Jiri Kool on line 3.
In his rookie year last season, Kulich scored 15 goals, 9 assists and 24 points in 62 games. Many of them of the highlight variety. He was active, engaged and appeared to belong. He also got knocked around a few times and missed substantial time. Jiri has decent size at just 21 years old. He is 6’1″ and 190 pounds but needs to pack on some muscle for this coming season and beyond. The NHL is a physical, unforgiving league and his game would benefit with some extra strength.
I don’t expect a sophomore jinx with the Kool-Aid man. He has the skills to be a successful NHLer and he will have very good players on either side of him. No matter which line he centers. If he plays close to 80 games, I expect 25 goals out of Kulich, with 40-45 points. He has 35 goal/60 point potential some day down the road. I think by year four we will see that. Meanwhile, he needs to add some strength and gain some good experience.
Ryan McLeod
Now we get to Ryan McLeod. With a new team and a larger role, the former Oiler broke out offensively with Buffalo. He scored 20 goals and 53 points with the Sabres. He was also a solid +13. Can we expect a repeat performance? Or an improvement or setback? I feel that McLeod is fully capable of putting up similar and even better numbers. Especially if he starts the year on the 2nd line. As I said, him and Kulich will no doubt flip flop their spots at times. But I think Buffalo has him penciled in for 2nd line duty. The speedy McLeod has much more experience over Kulich and is more defensively responsible. He is also well paid now after his new contract. It just makes sense for him to have a bigger role over Kulich for now.
I think Ryan McLeod will work well with Alex Tuch too. I can really see them feeding off each other. McLeod’s defensive game and speed along with Tuch’s grit and finish. These two (along with Jason Zucker probably) will be a tough matchup against most lines.
For the Sabres to succeed this season, McLeod will need to put up similar numbers to last year at least. I feel he will score even more. His goals may drop by a few but I believe his overall totals will go up. A 60 point season is entirely possible for Toothless. 18 goals and 42 assists sounds about right.
Josh Norris
Finally we get to the most intriguing and worrisome man in the middle on this Sabres team. Yet here he is, the number one center candidate. A player who needs to overcome his injuries of the past and move his overall game to a new level. Norris is very skilled. The guy can score goals, no doubt. His two way game has also improved much over the last few seasons. But not only does he need to stay healthy to give Buffalo a chance to win, he needs to elevate his game to new levels. He scored 35 goals in his second season but hasn’t come near that total since. He scored 21 goals last season in 56 games and 16 and 17 in two other injury shortened years. Even if he stays healthy this season, will he put up number one center stats? 55 points is the most he has scored in one season, in 66 games. Is he capable of being a 70 point player? Most number one centers put up at least that much. It’s a good thing he will have a dynamite helper to assist him in that goal.
Tage Thompson is probably the best pure goal scorer Norris will have played with. If you look over Josh’s career stats, playmaking is not his forte. He is a finisher. His assist totals are currently 24 less than his goals in the NHL. Just playing with TNT should help change that. If Tage racks up another 40 plus goals or even hits that elusive 50 mark, that will go a long way in padding Josh’s stats. But it will be up to Norris himself to cement his spot as top dog. He has to produce goals and points consistently. Nothing less than 30 goals and 60 points is expected from me. 70 might be possible if the TNT gravy train of goals aids his cause. There is a lot of hope and luck that goes into Josh’s forecast right now. He has to remain relatively healthy and he also has to level up to Big Boy status. He is 26 now, time to become the player he can and should be.
Wrap up
For better or worse, these are the four men who will be playing down the middle for Buffalo this year. There is lots to like but there are concerns as well. Some will never appreciate Peyton Krebs’ game. Others like me do. Jiri Kulich looks like a breakout player candidate to many. If he muddles along and only scores 17 though that will really hurt. Ryan McLeod will bring his solid two way game but his numbers need to go up even more for Buffalo. And when it comes to Josh Norris, well.. the fortune of the Blue and Gold hinges on his success. He must play most of the games and perform well while doing it. Norris needs to establish himself as Buffalo’s number one center. Even more so, he needs to shed this monkey off his back and get his career in full gear. The performances of these 4 players, especially Norris, will go a long way in ending this playoff drought.