What if the Sabres are done for the immediate future with roster upgrades? Will the streak be 15 or 1?
The Sabres off season roster moves make a lot of sense and have improved the team. Maybe improved the team to the point where we could make the playoffs for the first time in many years. But maybe not.
The pluses –
Improved defense – losing Clifton, saving ~$1 million in salary – adding Kesselring and Timmins is an improvement in physicality, blocked shots and overall defense. It also gives some clarity to quality pairings for Power and Samuelsson. Signing Byram to a two year deal gives him a chance to show the world what he can do, a positive for him, and gives the Sabres a chance to show him what the Sabres can do should he sign here long term.
It also gives Sabres a further chance to decide (if it is an option) do they keep Byram and trade Power (my current preference), or move Byram part way through his 2 year deal, or try and continue to keep both (between Byram’s new deal needed after the 2 years, Power, and Dahlin that’s a lot of $ on defense). It’s also a lot of offense on defense, which may not be an effective way to win long term and compete for a Cup. But it gives options.
The only spot I think defense could have been improved more would have been to not sign a guy I love – Bryson. $2 million for a 7th defender who is steady, but not highly skilled offensively and not physical seems like an overpay and we could have spent that money on a way more physical guy. Dennis Gilbert at under $1 million comes to mind – less offense and puck moving, more defense and hitting. Bryson is an overpay for a guy who might be sitting the in the press box a lot.
Maintain offense – I know many will say we downgraded our offense significantly by losing Peterka and not replacing him. We needed a top 6 winger last year, and still do, and we lost Peterka’s 77 points (27 goals)? That’s going to hurt. But 5v5 scoring was not an issue last year, and likely will not be this year. Losing offense to improve defense is viable, and the Sabres needed to improve defensively. If Norris chips in his same 53 (20 goals) points as last year for Utah, the loss of Peterka’s points are somewhat mitigated. Doan can also add some points if he maintains his former total. Kesselring and Timmins are also an upgrade of points on defense from Clifton if they stay in form. So the net loss of points may be negligible.
Goalie – A solid year from UPL will make a huge difference, and Lyon is an upgrade as a backup or a temporary #1. Levi marinating and playing in the AHL is a positive, and undoubtedly he will have a chance to both show his improvements in the NHL due to callups, and lead the Amerks in the playoffs – valuable down the road.
The unknowns –
- All the youngsters need to improve, which will really determine our success.
Benson – 10 goals last year – let’s bump that to 20, as he should be getting minutes with some solid players.
Quinn – Was horrible to start last year, and finishing strong when games don’t matter don’t impress me much. A 25-30 goal season would.
Doan – I think there is untapped scoring potential above the 11 goals from last year – maybe 15 a season, maybe 20. The work ethic, energy and desire say there is more there.
Kulich – He is still finding his way – an improvement from 24 points should be expected, I don’t have a prediction, but he held his own in a spot he should not have been in, so maybe not this year but I expect him to break out and be a 40 point player minimum soon.
- Special teams must get better. An improvement to the middle of the NHL standings in both power play and penalty kill would almost guarantee a playoff spot. The issue – this has been said for years, and I am not sure if it is something our personnel can resolve. Is it coaching? Is it our players? The penalty kill might/should be improved through the improvements made on defense. The power play reminds me of my son’s time in Mites – our power play was poor at best, and parents wanted it to be like the NFL – where coaches could decline the penalty and man “advantage”. Since this is unlikely to be an NHL rule change for this year, a new strategy with the right players who can handle the puck cleanly while making quick decisions is a must.
In the end – I am not confident there has been enough roster upgrades to stop the streak of 15 and start the streak of 1. The Sabres are relying a lot on health (always chancy in the NHL), depth (there is not a lot of top end depth- imagine losing Thompson, or Tuck, or Dahlin or more than 1 of them for an extended period), and improved youth (that was relied on for the last 2 years, and has not gotten the team far.)
Without further changes I worry the streak will extend to 15 years of missing the playoffs instead of starting a streak of 1 year of making the playoffs. I will explore what the Sabres might do about that in Part 2.
*I chose this title based on the 1997 movie of the same, which I enjoyed watching (although I barely recall it) and also brought some quotes into my life which I consider to be well written and incredibly illustrative and insightful into a character in a movie. I am not a huge Nicholson fan typically, but the writing in this movie gave serious insight into the bigoted and misogynistic author played by him. One example: When asked how he wrote female characters so well: “I think of a man, and take away reason and accountability.” Just so well done, (written and acted and I guess directed if I knew how that worked!)