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A while back, I wrote a fanpost outlining how the Sabres could afford Steven Stamkos. That was over 3 months ago. Obviously things have changed. We traded for Kulikov, an expansion draft was announced and the 2016 NHL draft was held, among other things.
At the time, some had Stamkos' cap hit to be around $11 million at the high end. Now we are seeing rumours of $12 million. So, with the changes to the roster, league and possible Stamkos price tag, I have decided to follow-up on that fanpost that found its way to Yahoo!.
I've taken a little bit of a different approach this time and have used charts from Capfriendly to help me through this process. I am just projecting contracts based on past contracts. The players are all players in the system today. Obviously none of this will come completely true, I am just using it to provide an example of what could be. Take it for what it's worth and feel free to pinpoint anything you think is out of whack. Just remember this is just a guideline or a road map for what "could" be done.
The numbers highlighted in yellow are my best guesstimates. The players with $0 are still in the farm.
| FORWARDS | TERMS | POS | STATUS | AGE | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
| Stamkos, Steven | 26 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | ||||
| O'Reilly, Ryan "A" | C, LW, RW | NHL | 25 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $7,500,000 | ||
| Kane, Evander | LW | NHL | 24 | $5,250,000 | $5,250,000 | UFA | ||||||
| Moulson, Matt | M-NTC | LW | NHL | 32 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | UFA | ||||
| Ennis, Tyler | C, LW, RW | NHL | 26 | $4,600,000 | $4,600,000 | $4,600,000 | UFA | |||||
| Gionta, Brian "C" | 35+M-NTC | RW | NHL | 37 | $4,250,000 | UFA | ||||||
| Larsson, Johan | LW | NHL | 23 | $950,000 | $1,500,000 | $1,500,000 | ||||||
| Eichel, Jack | EL | C | NHL | 19 | $925,000 | $925,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | |
| Fasching, Hudson | EL | RW | NHL | 20 | $0 | $925,000 | $1,300,000 | $1,300,000 | RFA | |||
| Reinhart, Sam | EL | C | NHL | 20 | $894,167 | $894,167 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | $8,500,000 | |
| Deslauriers, Nicolas | LW | NHL | 25 | $775,000 | $775,000 | UFA | ||||||
| O'Reilly, Cal | C | NHL | 29 | $700,000 | UFA | |||||||
| Foligno, Marcus | LW | NHL | 24 | $2,300,000 | $2,300,000 | |||||||
| Girgensons, Zemgus | C | NHL | 22 | $1,800,000 | $1,800,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | RFA | ||||
| Baptiste, Nicholas | EL | RW | Minor | 20 | $0 | $718,333 | $1,300,000 | $1,300,000 | RFA | |||
| Bailey, Justin | EL | RW | Minor | 20 | $670,000 | $670,000 | $1,300,000 | $1,300,000 | RFA | |||
| Nylander, Alex | EL | RW | Minor | 18 | $0 | $925,000 | $925,000 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | |
| Asplund, Rasmus | EL | RW | Minor | 18 | $0 | $0 | $925,000 | $925,000 | RFA | |||
| DEFENSE | TERMS | POS | STATUS | AGE | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
| Bogosian, Zach | NMC | D | NHL | 25 | $5,142,857 | $5,142,857 | $5,142,857 | $5,142,857 | UFA | |||
| Kulikov, Dmitry | D | NHL | 25 | $4,333,333 | UFA | |||||||
| Gorges, Josh "A" | M-NTC | D | NHL | 31 | $3,900,000 | $3,900,000 | UFA | |||||
| Franson, Cody | D | NHL | 28 | $3,325,000 | UFA | |||||||
| Nelson, Casey | D | NHL | 23 | $1,100,000 | $1,100,000 | $1,100,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | ||||
| Colaiacovo, Carlo | D | NHL | 33 | UFA | ||||||||
| McCabe, Jake | D | NHL | 22 | $1,300,000 | $1,300,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | RFA | ||||
| Ristolainen, Rasmus | D | NHL | 21 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | $5,500,000 | ||||
| Guhle, Brendan | EL | LD | Minor | 19 | $0 | $703,333 | $703,333 | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | RFA | ||
| Martin, Brycen | EL | D | Minor | 20 | $0 | $685,000 | $685,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | RFA | ||
| GOALTENDERS | TERMS | POS | STATUS | AGE | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
| Lehner, Robin | G | NHL | 24 | $2,225,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | ||||||
| Johnson, Chad | G | NHL | 30 | $1,300,000 | ||||||||
| Ullmark, Linus | EL | G | Minor | 22 | $0 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | RFA | ||
| Petersen, Cal | EL | G | Minor | 21 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 | RFA | ||
| BUYOUT HISTORY (3) | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | |||||
| Ehrhoff, Christian | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |||||
| Leino, Ville | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ||||||||
| Hodgson, Cody | $541,667 | $41,667 | -$458,333 | $791,667 | $791,667 | $791,667 | $791,667 | |||||
| SALARY CAP | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $73,000,000 | |||||
| PROJECTED CAP HIT | $76,282,024 | $68,155,357 | $75,522,857 | $74,659,524 | $59,191,667 | $44,291,667 | $44,291,667 | |||||
| PROJECTED CAP SPACE | -$3,282,024 | $4,844,643 | -$2,522,857 | -$1,659,524 | $13,808,333 | $28,708,333 | $28,708,333 | |||||
The first thing you will probably notice is that we are over the cap this year. Teams are allowed to go over the cap by 10% until October. This obviously means player(s) will need to be moved or bought out. Prime candidates: Franson, Moulson, Kane, Ennis.
This will be an interesting road to navigate for GMTM. Buying out a player needs to happen by June 30th. Stay tuned. Other than Moulson, one would have to assume the other 3 have value in the league. They can be traded for picks/prospects and thus will obviously lower the cap hits that I have in future years.
Also, Vesey has not been included. His low cap will help though, should he sign.
Next, you will notice that I kept the salary cap a flat $73. Make your own projections on how the cap will rise (or fall) in the future. Generally speaking it rises $2-$3 million per season though.
If you think some of these estimates are low, keep the flat $73 million in mind too.
All of that being said, assuming my contracts are relatively fair you'll see that this year will be the hardest to stay under the cap. Modest increases in future years allow us to stay under the cap.
Just for fun, some line-up projections, by year:
| Kane | Stamkos | ROR | |
| Bailey | Eichel | Reinhart | |
| Moulson | Girgensons | Ennis | |
| Foligno | Larsson | Gionta | 2016-2017 |
| Deslauriers | COR | ||
| Kulikov | Ristolainen | ||
| McCabe | Bogosian | ||
| Gorges | Franson | ||
| Nelson |
|
| Kane | Stamkos | ROR | |
| Bailey | Eichel | Reinhart | |
| Nylander | Girgensons | Baptiste | |
| Foligno | Larsson | Ennis | 2017-2018 |
| Deslauriers | Moulson | Fasching | |
| McCabe | Ristolainen | ||
| Guhle | Bogosian | ||
| Gorges | Nelson |
| Bailey | Stamkos | ROR | |
| Nylander | Eichel | Reinhart | |
| Ennis | Girgensons | Baptiste | |
| Asplund | Larsson | Fasching | 2018-2019 |
| Moulson | |||
| McCabe | Ristolainen | ||
| Guhle | Bogosian | ||
| Martin | Nelson |
|
Now, you'll notice there are some open spots and the rosters are nowhere near exact. Again, this is just a rough idea of what could be. I didn't care to project our further who would be making the team but make your own picks between players like Cornel, Borgen, Karabacek, Estephan, etc..
Enjoy and leave your comments below!
