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Crunching Numbers: Sabres Split Weekend Games

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Because of the back-to-back games this weekend, I combined the stats posts together.  It will give you an opportunity to compare the win on Friday to the loss on Saturday.  I thought the Sabres actually played better as a team on Saturday, despite losing 5-0 to the Islanders.  If you believe the Corsi number has some value, you might agree with me.  Remember the Corsi number is just one number among many other stats that help determine the value of a player.

The Corsi number is a statistic that what created by Sabres goalie coach JIm Corsi. It is the difference in total shots for and the total shots against. It factors in all shots that were on net, attempts that were blocked and shots that missed the net. The idea is that it is a better reflection on a players two-way play because it shows puck possesion as opposed to only shots on goal.

 

Sabres vs. Leafs
Game Stats
# Player Pos TOI +/- FO% Hits GV TK BS
4 Steve Montador D 15:40 0 - 0 0 1 1
9 Derek Roy C 20:42 0 48% 0 0 0 1
10 Henrik Tallinder D 21:05 1 - 0 2 1 0
13 Tim Kennedy C 13:02 -1 17% 3 0 0 1
19 Tim Connolly C 18:04 0 100% 2 1 1 1
21 Drew Stafford RW 15:27 -1 100% 0 0 0 0
11 Adam Mair C 6:06 0 0% 1 0 0 0
25 Mike Grier RW 17:16 -1 - 2 0 0 3
26 Thomas Vanek LW 18:04 0 0% 0 0 2 0
29 Jason Pominville RW 18:57 1 40% 2 1 0 1
34 Chris Butler D 23:51 -2 - 2 2 0 2
36 Patrick Kaleta RW 6:13 0 - 2 0 0 1
37 Matt Ellis LW 9:53 0 57% 1 0 0 0
38 Nathan Paetsch D 10:47 0 - 0 1 0 0
41 Clarke MacArthur LW 16:27 0 50% 0 2 0 1
52 Craig Rivet D 21:48 -2 - 0 0 1 0
55 Jochen Hecht LW 16:28 -1 38% 3 0 1 0
57 Tyler Myers D 22:36 1 - 1 1 1 4
TOI = Total Time on Ice GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits BS=Blocked Shots

 

Even Strength Individual Stats Even Strength On-Ice Totals
# Player Pos EV TOI G A Shots S A/B S Miss SOGF SOGA SOG Diff Tot SF Tot SA Corsi
4 Steve Montador D 13:57 0 0 1 2 1 7 6 1 14 11 3
9 Derek Roy C 11:27 0 0 1 0 2 6 9 -3 12 15 -3
10 Henrik Tallinder D 16:39 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 -1 13 16 -3
13 Tim Kennedy C 13:06 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 -1 7 17 -10
19 Tim Connolly C 12:19 1 0 2 0 1 6 2 4 9 13 -4
21 Drew Stafford RW 10:12 0 0 2 0 1 5 9 -4 11 15 -4
22 Adam Mair C 6:06 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 6 5 1
25 Mike Grier RW 13:54 0 0 2 0 1 7 7 0 9 17 -8
26 Thomas Vanek LW 12:19 0 0 1 0 1 4 9 -5 8 14 -6
29 Jason Pominville RW 12:13 0 1 2 1 0 7 2 5 11 13 -2
34 Chris Butler D 17:06 0 0 1 1 0 9 11 -2 13 27 -14
36 Patrick Kaleta RW 9:46 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 -1 6 5 1
37 Matt Ellis LW 9:22 0 0 2 1 0 3 6 -3 8 7 1
38 Nathan Paetsch D 14:26 0 0 0 1 0 6 5 1 11 9 2
41 Clarke MacArthur LW 11:50 0 0 1 0 0 5 4 1 9 13 -4
52 Craig Rivet D 16:45 0 0 0 0 0 7 10 -3 12 22 -10
55 Jochen Hecht LW 13:32 0 0 4 1 0 7 6 1 8 14 -6
57 Tyler Myers D 17:56 0 0 1 0 0 8 8 0 12 20 -8
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

 

This might be the worst game the Sabres have played all season and yet they came away with a 3-2 overtime victory.  In the recap we showered Ryan Miller with praise but maybe we should have been even more complimentary of his performance.  The stats above, only include the even strength stats.  I can't even imagine what they would look like if we added the power play time.

Almost every Sabres player had a minus Corsi rating and Chris Butler was a minus-14.  That is a huge number and one we haven't seen from the Sabres all season.  Butler played in many key situations against some of the Leafs best players and that will make the Corsi rating look worse than it is but minus-14 has been unheard of this season.

Sabres @ Islanders
Game Stats
# Player Pos TOI +/- FO% Hits GV TK BS
4 Steve Montador D 18:22 0 - 1 0 0 0
9 Derek Roy C 18:55 -1 33% 0 0 1 0
10 Henrik Tallinder D 17:47 -1 - 0 0 0 2
13 Tim Kennedy C 12:17 -1 63% 2 1 0 2
19 Tim Connolly C 17:56 -1 38% 0 1 1 1
21 Drew Stafford RW 16:42 -1 100% 0 1 0 0
22 Adam Mair C 8:00 -1 100% 1 0 1 0
25 Mike Grier RW 14:10 -2 - 0 0 1 0
26 Thomas Vanek LW 18:11 0 - 0 1 0 0
29 Jason Pominville RW 18:06 0 67% 1 0 1 0
34 Chris Butler D 20:26 -2 - 0 1 0 0
37 Matt Ellis LW 9:58 -1 67% 2 0 0 0
38 Nathan Paetsch D 8:38 -1 - 1 1 0 2
41 Clarke MacArthur LW 18:37 0 17% 2 1 1 1
44 Andrej Sekera D 17:34 -2 - 0 0 1 0
52 Craig Rivet D 18:33 -1 - 0 1 0 0
55 Jochen Hecht LW 17:10 -3 50% 1 1 0 1
57 Tyler Myers D 22:25 -2 - 0 2 0 1
TOI = Total Time on Ice GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits BS=Blocked Shots

 

Even Strength Individual Stats Even Strength On-Ice Totals
# Player Pos EV TOI G A Shots S A/B S Miss SOGF SOGA SOG Diff Tot SF Tot SA Corsi
4 Steve Montador D 16:57 0 0 3 2 0 11 7 4 17 8 9
9 Derek Roy C 13:03 0 0 1 1 0 11 9 2 19 13 6
10 Henrik Tallinder D 16:55 0 0 2 1 0 11 7 4 18 13 5
13 Tim Kennedy C 12:12 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 1 11 7 4
19 Tim Connolly C 12:50 0 0 1 1 0 10 7 3 16 12 4
21 Drew Stafford RW 12:27 0 0 2 0 1 10 6 4 21 9 12
22 Adam Mair C 8:00 0 0 1 0 0 3 4 -1 4 7 -3
25 Mike Grier RW 12:55 0 0 2 0 1 5 6 -1 10 10 0
26 Thomas Vanek LW 12:59 0 0 2 1 3 11 7 4 20 11 9
29 Jason Pominville RW 12:49 0 0 5 2 0 9 5 4 16 9 7
34 Chris Butler D 14:52 0 0 1 1 1 10 7 3 21 14 7
37 Matt Ellis LW 9:53 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 1 6 6 0
38 Nathan Paetsch D 8:38 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 6 7 -1
41 Clarke MacArthur LW 12:53 0 0 1 2 2 9 7 2 16 11 5
44 Andrej Sekera D 16:53 0 0 3 0 0 7 10 -3 14 13 1
52 Craig Rivet D 12:49 0 0 1 2 1 10 6 4 21 12 9
55 Jochen Hecht LW 11:44 0 0 1 1 2 4 8 -4 10 12 -2
57 Tyler Myers D 16:50 0 0 1 1 0 10 11 -1 15 18 -3
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

 

This was a 5-0 Sabres loss.  The Corsi numbers look much better because the Sabres played a much better game, except the final score.  We often base our decision on how a team played based on teh scoreboard without giving much consideration to how the goalie play affects the outcome.  Martin Biron was outstanding for the Islanders and never gave the Sabres much of a chance in this game.

It was nice to see Butler and Rivet bounce back from a rough outing against the Leafs.  After a minus-14 performance on Friday, he was a plus-seven on Saturday.