I was looking in the right sidebar at the Sabres upcoming schedule and the prospect of gaining some points on the top teams in the conference.  Than it hit me that I couldn't remember the last time they beat a team with a losing record.  It was in fact the St. Louis Blues back on November 12 and in fairness the only other team they played (that had a losing record) was the NY Islanders and they lost 4-2 last Saturday.

It made start thinking about previous losses to Columbus, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.  This team does in fact play to the level of their competition.  The numbers don't lie and this team seems to play their best hockey against the better teams in the league.  Nine of the teams 11 wins have come against teams that have a winning a record with a 9-5-0 record against teams that are ahead of them in the standings. 

Sabres vs. Eastern Conference

Western Conference

Italics= current Playoff team

So is this a good thing or a bad thing?  Should we be happy that the Sabres play well against the leagues best teams or should we be concerned that they play so poorly against the leagues worst teams.  In the next week or so we may get our answer.  The Sabres play against many of the lower tier teams in the league over the next couple of weeks.

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It is not a secret that the Sabres have been struggling as of late, losers of their last five games.  It is a far cry from the team that began the season with a 6-0-1 record.  Lindy Ruff stated last week that the team wasn't as good as they played early in the season and that they aren't as bad as they have played lately.  I didn't realize until I broke down the numbers just how bad they have been.

In this current slump they are averaging a goal and a half less per game and allowing almost two and half goals more a game.  There aren't many teams in this league that can allow over four goals a game and win. 

Every hockey fan knows (and I've stated on this site numerous times) that special teams win hockey games.  The Sabres have proved that to be the case this season.  In their first seven games they scored nine power play goals and they have only scored three in their last seven games.  The penalty kill numbers are similar.  They have allowed seven goals in the last seven and only three in the first seven of the season when they were winning.

The funny thing about their slump is the teams they have played.  In the first seven games they beat both the Boston Bruins and the NY Islanders but they lost to both during their slump.  They also beat teams like the Wild, Rangers and Canadiens when things were going well but have lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets during their slump.

I don't know the answers to the Sabres woes but I know that good special teams and better defense/goaltending will go a long way.

Mark Mancari

#25 / Right Forward / Buffalo Sabres

Height: 6-4

Weight: 225

Born: Jul 11, 1985

It's only been two games since Mark Mancari was called up from the Portland Pirates but he has already made an impact.  He has been the best player on the ice for the Sabres and he scored his first NHL goal in a 4-2 loss to the Islanders on Saturday night.  His goal ended a Sabres scoring streak that lasted nearly two games.  He also led the Sabres with seven shots-on-goal Saturday night and he had two or three good scoring chances.

Mancari has already proven himself at the AHL level this season and in the past.  Before being called up, he had 11 goals and 14 assists in 14 games played.  He has produced in the past as well with 21 goals last season and 23 goals on 2006-2007.

In addition to his offensive production he also brings size and strength to the lineup.  He is listed at 6'4" and 225 pounds and he uses his size to drive the net.  He is an imposing figure for opposing defenses to deal with when he is playing at his best.  Actually, he is everything we thought we had in Drew Stafford.

Mancari brings plenty of tools to the game including a howitzer from the point.  Mancari won the hardest shot competition at the AHL all-star game last season with a shot that registered 102.4 MPH.  He has too many tools to be sent back to Portland.

If Mancari is indeed ready to make a permanent jump to the NHL it will leave the Sabres with an interesting dilema.  In the short term they just need to continue to scratch one player from the lineup but at some point Ales Kotalik and Tim Connolly will be healthy.  It will leave the Sabres with one too many players on the roster and someone will need to go.

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After an incredible but unlikely hot start to the season the Buffalo Sabres have struggled mightily as of late.  Buffalo began the season 6-0-1 and beat teams like Montreal, Boston and the New York Rangers in the process.  Since that time the Sabres are just 3-6-2 have been embarrassed a couple of times in the process.  The Sabres recent struggles can be summed up in a loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets last Friday night.  Buffalo lost that game 6-1 at the HSBC Arena despite outshooting the Jackets 37-25.  With all due respect to Jacket fans, they aren't exactly a power house team especially on the road.  Buffalo followed that game by allowing four third period goals in a 5-2 loss to the Penguins on Saturday and of course they blew a two goal lead last night.  The season seems to be spiraling out of control when just a month a go it looked like the Sabres were an easy pick for the playoffs.

I can't sit here and tell you what they need to do to fix but I agree with Ryan, the answer is not in Portland.  Unfortunately guys like Nathan Gerbe and Tim Kennedy are not ready to make the jump to the NHL yet (although I think they both have a bright future).  Mark Mancari might be able to contribute at the NHL level but he is not going to make the difference on this team.  They need to go back to playing the same hockey they were playing in the first seven games.

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It looks as though the most talented player who never plays will be out of the lineup once again.  This will be the third seperate injury that Connolly has suffered this season.  Connolly took a vicious hit from Keith Tkachuk on Wednesday night and is day-to-day with a bruised chest.  Lindy Ruff said "there is no head trauma whatsoever".  If that information is accurate is very good news for Tim and the Sabres.  One would guess that one more head injury to Connolly would probably end his career because of the history he has had with concussions.

Connolly being injured has become the butt of many jokes throughout the blogosphere but the fact remains that the Sabres are a better team with him in the lineup.  Connolly has two goals and four assists in only five games played.  In addition he has sparked Jason Pominville who started the season slowly until he partnered with Tim Connolly the past couple of games.

We asked the question last week, What to do with Tim Connolly?  That question is even more appropriate now with him once again out of the lineup.  The fact is that Tim Connolly is a huge difference maker for the Sabres and his value is probably not very high on the open market.  Many people feel that the Sabres should try to trade Connolly away because his injury struggles are too great.  The question is...what could you get for Tim Connolly?  Probably not a lot and he adds a whole new dimension to the team when he plays.

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It has been a rough stretch of games for the Buffalo Sabres and that has forced Lindy Ruff to tinker with his line combinations.  The Sabres have lost five of their last seven games and the only two wins were both Ryan Miller shutouts.  The last time the Sabres won a game that the opponent scored a goal was October 23 when they came back and beat the Minnesota Wild in overtime.

Lindy Ruff has a problem on his hands but it is a good problem to have.  The Sabres have an abundance of forwards that can play and contribute at the NHL level.  Since Jochen Hecht returned to the lineup the Sabres have scratched Drew Stafford for one game and Daniel Paille for one game. It's inevitable that someone (probably Connolly) will get hurt and the current problem becomes an opportunity.

It seems to be a no-brainer to keep the top line of Vanek-Roy and Kotalik together but I would argue that Roy has not played all that well so far this season.  I'm not advocating him being sent to the press box but maybe a wake up call by a line demotion is warranted.  Thomas Vanek is off to the best start of his career and is leading the league in goals scored with 12 but Derek Roy has only two goals and six assists in 14 games played.  Last season Roy was a point per game player and I think he will be again in the future but maybe he should take a step back for a time.

Jochen Hecht and Jason Pominville have played well over the past two seasons and they are always on the same line when they are both in the lineup.  Tim Connolly is one of the most talented players in the league when healthy and seems to have chemistry with Hecht and Pommer.

It's the third line where things start to get interesting.  Max Afinogenov is probably the most explosive third line player in the entire league but he is also the most criticized.  Afinogenov has a ton of speed and talent but has never lived up to the expectations set by Sabres fans.  He has played fairly well this season and was finally rewarded with his first goal of the season on Friday.  He is playing with Daniel Paille who spent the last game in the press box as a healthy scratchy and Clarke MacArthur who was not even expected to be in the lineup on opening night but has earned a spot over Stafford and Paille.  MacArthur has six goals and two assists but he is one of many players that are a minus two on the season.

It gets even more absurd with the fourth line.  I like having Gaustad and Mair on the same line but when Andrew Peters is on the other wing instead of Drew Stafford and Patrick Kaleta I have issues.  Is there really a spot for Andrew Peters on this team?  There are plenty of guys that are willing to drop the gloves and I don't think he intimidates any of his opponents.  I have no issue with Kaleta watching from the press box because I thought he has been mostly ineffective in recent games but Drew Stafford brings a lot more than Andrew Peters.

Jochen Hecht will be returning to the lineup and that raises the question of who stays and who goes?  Kevin Sylvester points out that someone will be out of the lineup but more importantly John Vogl points out that the Sabres need to make a roster move.  There are plenty of options but it seems that Vogl is on the right track.  Keep in mind that Tim Connolly is injured agians and if he his really injured he could be placed on IR and the Sabres would not have to send anyone down to the minors.

Non-Waiver Options

The following players can be sent to Portland without having to clear waivers.  This means that the Sabres can send them back and forth without the risk of losing them to another team.

• Andrej Sekera-  he isn't going anywhere.  He is a fixture on the blueline and could be one of the best defenseman on the team.  It really doesn't matter that he can be sent down without waivers...he is here to stay.
• Patrick Kaleta-  Most people think he is here to stay as well and they are probably right.  It is however a vviable option for Lindy to send him down for a short time, knowing he's only an hour down the road...oh wait it's a bit longer now but you get the point.
• Drew Stafford-  After the way Stafford played in his rookie season I never thought I would be saying that he could be sent down but it is a real possibility.  Stafford has struggled so far this season and he was a disappointment last season as well.  I still think that Drew could be a real good player in this league but maybe some time in the minors will do him some good.

Waiver Options

The following players would need to clear waivers in order to be sent down to the Portland Pirates.  All other NHL teams would have the option of picking up this player and their contract.

• Nathan Paetsch-  Paetsch has obviously fallen out of favor with the coaching staff but he still holds too much value to be placed on waivers.  Paetsch is still a viable option when injuries pop up and we know they always pop up.
• Andrew Peters-  Everyone knows that I would love to see Peters waived but I can't see it happening.  He is popular in the room and he is the teams union representative. 
  
• Matt Ellis-  Ellis is the newest member of the Sabres having been claimed off of waivers one week before the season began.  Ellis has been a healthy scratch of late and may be a prime candidate to be placed on waivers.

It probably comes down to Stafford and Ellis to be a former member of the team.  Based on all the injuries the Sabres have had already they will probably keep Ellis on the active roster for depth.  If that is indeed the case, it would mean that Drew Stafford will probably be sent to Portland to work on his overall game.

As Lindy Ruff previously stated...Matt Ellis is a defensive forward so you can not measure his value in points.  Drew Stafford is however an offensive forward that is measured strictly on his total points.

As you can see by a look at his career stats, Drew is off to a slow start. A couple of weeks in Portland may be exactly what Drew needs in order to become an impact player in the NHL.

It should come as no surprise that Tim Connolly misses practice once again, this time with a sore groin.  I have never seen a player that is injured more than Tim Connolly, at any level of any sport.  I don't think it would be a stretch to say that Timmy has missed more games than he has played since becoming a Buffalo Sabres.  I'm sure that someone out there knows the exact numbers of games missed and games played...fill us in.  In an effort to avoid my blood pressure to rise too high I will avoid talking about TC anymore today.

The good news is that Jochen Hecht was at practice and he will be in the lineup on Friday night against the Atlanta Thrashers.  With the injury to Connolly (oh damn...there goes the blood pressure) Hecht was centering a line with C-Mac and Pominville.  I would expect that Hecht will play on that line regardless of what happens with Connolly (oops I did it again).

Last week it became really big news when Alexander Semin called out Sidney Crosby as just another player.  It became big news on the web as well as on TV.  What didn't become big news was the comment that may have been directed at Thomas Vanek.  Semin did an interview with Puck Daddy where he talked about many different issues, some hockey related and some non-hockey related.

Comment on Sidney Crosby...

What's so special about [Crosby]? I don't see anything special there. Yes, he does skate well, has a good head, good pass. But there's nothing else. Even if you compare him to Patrick Kane from Chicago ... [Kane] is a much more interesting player. The way he moves, his deking abilities, his thinking on the ice and his anticipation of the play is so superb.

Was this comment directed at Thomas Vanek?

I think that if you take any player, even if he is "dead wood," and start promoting him, you'll get a star. Especially if he scores 100 points. No one is going to care about anyone else. No one is going to care whether he possesses great skill. Let's say you put someone in front of the net and let him deflect pucks in, and he scored 50 goals; everyone will say "Wow!" and then hand him a $10 million per year contract. That's what they like here.

Thanks to a comment at Japers Rink for the hat tip

It appears the comment had to be directed at Vanek because I can't think of another player he would be describing.  Do you think Vanek knew about the comment because he scored two really pretty goals on Saturday night when the Sabres beat the Capitals 5-0.  Wonder if he went over and asked Semin if he liked the goals.

If for some reason you missed the goals here they are..

Goal #1 - put the Sabres ahead 1-0 in the first period.

Goal #2 - with 2.9 seconds left in the 2nd period

For those of us who have had the pleaseure of watching Thomas Vanek, we know he does more than just stand in front of the net.  Vanek is not afraid to stand in front of the net but he is one of the most creative players in the NHL today.  He has deceiving speed and wicked wrister.  He is also really good with his hands for a big guy that stands in front of the net.

Vanek has 11 goals in 12 games to start the season and many of those goals have been of the "pretty" variety.  He has also scored his first two shorthanded goals of his career. 

Did Vanek deserve the huge contract he got?  Probably not but the Edmonton Oilers were desperate and the Sabres had no choice but to match the offer.  Vanek is off to a hot start and if it continues he will be a 50 goal-scorer easily and may possibly hit the 60 goal plateau for the first time of his career.

As we get ready to watch the Buffalo Bills take on the New ork Jets I thought it would be fun to take a look at some Buffalo Sabres statistics.  Most of the stats came as no surprise to me but others were a hug surprise.

Goal Scoring

I have been telling you about the Sabres 5-on-5 play but now you can see it first hand.  They are a plus one while playing at even strength and really rely on the power play.  If not for a plus four on Saturday night the Sabres would be a minus team while playing even strength.  This is an area that the Sabres will need to improve if they plan on being a contyender in April.

The Sabres special teams have been impressive at a plus 13 on the power play and only a minus three shorthanded.  You half expect that the power play will do well but a minus three on the penalty kill after 11 games is impressive.  Ryan Miller has been the biggest reason for the solid penalty kill but he has received some help from his teammates.

Miscellaneous Stats

There are some other interesting statistics that can be found at NHL.com.  Let's give the NHL some credit for what they have done to improve the website.  Anyway, on to the stats...

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