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3 months ago: Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin, right, from Russia, breaks his stick as he is defended by Buffalo Sabres' Patrick Kaleta in the second period of an NHL hockey game in Washington Friday, April 3, 2009. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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It's funny how things work sometimes.  When the season ended, and the Sabres had missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season, there was a large public outcry for change.  Things went quiet for about two months and now just over a week before free agency begins that talk is back.

It doesn't matter where you turn it's the same thing.  Whether it be a Fanpost from Roygbiv or the GM for-a-day post from Bucky Gleason the theme is change is necessary.  I was in favor of change as soon as the season ended but then reality set in and I realized there won't be much change in store for the Sabres this off-season.

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Drew Stafford set career highs in goals and assists this season.  He did it in the final year of his three year entry-level rookie contract.  He is set to be a restricted free agent this summer meaning that the Sabres have the right to match an offer by another team or they will receive compensation. 

The question that remains is not whether the Sabres want to keep Stafford but whether or not they can afford to keep Stafford.  The NHL Salary Cap figures to remain in the neighborhood of $54-55 million but last season the Sabres had a self-imposed salary cap of $50 million.  There is no reason to believe that they will spend more than $50 million this season. 

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June 19th is the ten year anniversary of Game Six of the 1999 Stanley Cup Finals.  For the next week, we will take a look at the teams and the times during those Stanley Cup Finals. 

via photos.upi.com

The Buffalo Sabres were heading into the 1999 Stanley Cup Finals riding with a lot of confidence.  That can be easy when you have one of the world's best goaltenders in net.  Dominik Hasek was probably the best goaltender in the NHL during the 1998-99 season.  In fact he won his third straight Vezina trophy that season.  He also had his career best season that year, having a 1.87 GAA and .905 SV%.  Hasek led a team that was full of non-household players, players that are good but are not well known around the league.  Michael Peca, Miroslav Satan, and Alexei Zhitnik were the stallworts to this team that just kept winning.

This team was coming off a fairly controversial season that saw them lose their award winning coach and GM due to tension between the two.  During the 1997 season, that tension spilled over to elite goaltender Dominik Hasek and Jim Kelley which led to a lockeroom altercation between the two.  The 1998 season saw a new GM, Darcy Regier, and new coach, Lindy Ruff take the Sabres to the Conference Finals only to lose in six games to the Washington Capitals.

New GM Regier made some moves at the trade deadline to shore up some holes in the lineup.  He sent superpest Matthew Barnaby to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Stu Barnes and picked up Joe Juneau from the Washington Capitals.  Both Juneau and Barnes were key to the Sabres as they made the run to the playoffs.  Barnes had 7 goals in 21 playoff games that season and Juneau had three goals and 11 points in 20 playoff games.

The Sabres went 38-27-17 which was good for 91 points.  This put them fourth in the Northeastern Conference and seventh in the Eastern Conference heading into the playoffs.  From there the Sabres made quick work of the second seed Ottawa Senators, sweeping them in four games, and the Boston Bruins, beating them in five.  This setup a conference final matchup between two bitter rivals, the Sabres and the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Pat Quinn was behind the bench for the Sabres and the Leafs were led by captain Mats Sundin. The Sabres took care of the Leafs as well in five games heading to their first Stanley Cup Final in twenty-four years.

On Tuesday night the Sabres were thoroughly dominated by the Philadelphia Flyers.  It seems almost every Sabres fan in the world is declaring the season over or as good as over after that loss.  That sentiment couldn't be further from the truth.  As the title reads, this team is down but they are not out.

The Sabres currently sit in 10th place in the Eastern Conference and they are four points behind the Carolina Hurrricanes and Florida Panthers (Sabres have one game in hand on the Canes).  That's it...just four points, that is two hockey games folks.  Let's not give up on the season because of a loss to the Flyers, a team that is currently in fourth place and playing excellent hockey.

This coming weekend is an important weekend for the Sabres and the standings could look dramatically different on Monday morning.  The Sabres play the Florida Panthers on Thursday and the Atlanta Thrashers on Saturday, both are winnable hockey games and both are at home.  Some of the other teams that are in the playoff race do not have such favorable schedules.

Upcoming Schedules for Other Playoff Contenders

Montreal Canadiens - (Prediction: 2 points)  Thursday (vs. Islanders), Saturday (vs. New Jersey Devils)

Pittsburgh Penguins - (Prediction: 4 points)  Thursday (@ Columbus), Saturday (vs. Ottawa), Sunday (vs. Boston)

Carolina Hurricanes - (Prediction: 2 points)  Wednesday (@ Chicago), Thursday (@ Dallas), Saturday (@ Washington)

Florida Panthers - (Prediction: 2 points)  Thursday (@ Buffalo), Saturday (vs. Tampa Bay)

New York Rangers - (Prediction: 2 points)  Thursday (@ Nashville), Saturday (@ Philadelphia), Sunday (vs. Philadelphia)

If the predictions above are correct and the Sabres win both of their games, they will sit just one point out of a playoff spot with games in hand on every team except the Florida Panthers and Montreal Canadiens.

All of this really means absolutely nothing, especially if the Sabres don't win their two hockey games but it does put things in perspective.  It is going to take 90-92 points to earn a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and that means the Sabres will need to win 8-10 games in their final 15.  It's a tough task but one that this team can accomplish if they play as well as they are capable of playing. 

Sabres Remaining Schedule

Let's try our luck at a couple more predictions.  The Sabres only chance to make the playoffs is to take two points from the teams they are chasing in the standings.  With that being said they need... two wins against Florida, two wins against Atlanta and two wins against Toronto.  They would need single wins against Ottawa, NY Rangers and the Montreal Canadiens.  That would give them a total of nine wins and 91 points in the standings.  The remaining games are, home games against Philadelphia, New Jersey, Detroit and Boston and road games against Washington and Carolina.  If they could win one of those games they could be looking at a 93 point season and a post-season berth.

I know this is an overly-optomistic look at the final 15 games but the Sabres can still make the playoffs.  It looks bleak right now, especially after the loss last night but in reality I never expected them to win last night.  The Flyers are a really good hockey team and they proved as much last night.

The season is not over yet.  I'm sure you will see stories in the Buffalo News from Jerry Sullivan and Bucky Gleason telling you it is and that it's because of inept management but believe me it's not over yet.  There is too much hockey left to be played.

It's deadline day and we need a place to chat while the trades are taking place.  We will still have posts about any Buffalo Sabres trades and will probably do a summary on Thursday.  The games on Tuesday were not favorable to the Sabres with Philadelphia, Carolina, Florida and Pittsburgh all winning.  The Sabres are now in 10th place and have plenty of work to do.

Questions to Answer

1. Are the Sabres buyers or sellers?
2. Will Tim Connolly be dealt and if so to who?
3. Will the Sabres be able to unload Max Afinogenov or are they stuck with him till the end of the season?
4. Will the Sabres be able to make the team stronger for their run to the playoffs?
5. Will Martin Biron or any other goalie be headed to Buffalo?

Those are some of the key questions that need to be answered for the Sabres has they head into the stretch run.  In another nine hours this team could look a whole lot different.

As of right now, the Sabres sit 7th in the Eastern Conference, four points behind the Flyers and one point ahead of the Panthers.  The main question is, what is this team going to do looking forward and can they keep their ground in the month of February.

The Sabres play 13 games in the month of February.  Their schedule is below:

By all accounts, the schedule looks fairly easy with two games each against Toronto, Ottawa, and Carolina.  The Pythagorean expectation formula tells us the same thing.  The expected winning percentages of the each of these teams are .389, .412, and .424 respectively.  On the flipside though, the Sabres also have to face the Ducks twice and San Jose.  These teams are basically the cream of the crop in the league.  So overall what does the Pythagorean expectation formula tell us about the month of February overall.  The opponents combined total goals for is 855 while the combined goals against is 932.  These numbers are so small due to the fact that whether the opponent was home or away was taken into consideration.  Plugging that into the formula gives us an expected opponents winning percentage of .457.  That should mean that the Sabres will win 54.3% of the games in February, or about 7 of 13.  Factor in the about 11% of the games go to overtime, that means that one of the losses they suffer should come in the overtime period.  This gives us an expected record of 7-5-1, which is good for 15 points.  The main question is whether 15 points is going to be enough.

Here are the expected records of the 6-10 teams in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt:

6.  Philadelphia:  5-5-1 (11 points), Expected percentage is .502

7.  Buffalo:  7-5-1 (15 points), Expected percentage is .543

8.  Florida: 6-6-1 (13 points), Expected percentage is .483

9.  Pittsburgh: 5-5-1 (11 points), Expected percentage is .473

10.  Toronto:  6-5-1 (13 points), Expected percentage is .503

This tells us that the Sabres are expected to have the better record coming out of February and may just overtake the 6th spot in the conference.  But, there is a reason why they play the games.

It's funny how things work sometimes.  In 2006-2007 the Buffalo Sabres were one of the best teams in the league when it came to the shootout.  You could make an argument that the only reason they won the Presidents Trophy was because of their proficiency in the shootout.  The Sabres won 10-of-14 shootouts that season.  Only the Tampa Bay Lightning (10-of-12) had a better winning percentage in the shootout and no team won more than 10 games. 

The biggest reason for the Sabres success was Ales Kotalik and Ryan Miller.  Everyone always pointed to Briere as the Sabres go-to guy in the shootout and he was pretty good.  In fact he scored six goals that season, ranking him with the League Leaders in shootout goals.  Although Briere scored the most he wasn't automatic, he scored six goals on 14 attempts while Ales Kotalik emerged as a shootout star, scoring five goals on only seven tries.

The one-two punch of Briere and Kotalik was a pretty good start for the Sabres but it was Ryan Miller that was the difference.  Miller won 10 out of 14 shootouts he took part in that season.  Only Martin Broduer played in more shootouts but they both had 10 wins on the season.  Miller stopped 37-of-46 shots which was in the top five for save percentage.

Those numbers reflect on the 2006-2007 team that thought they would win every game.  Last season the confidence level of the team was not good and it showed in the teams shootout failures.  In 2007-2008 the Sabres played in 13 shootouts, one less than the prior season.  The biggest difference...the only won four times.  In comparison to the prior season, that was six points they left on the table and would have been enough to make this a playoff team.

In case you wondering the exact statistics...Ales Kotalik scored five goals again but with 12 attempts this season and Ryan Miller stopped only 19-of-33 shots and had the third worst save percentages in the league.

It seems that last season was an aborition because this team is once again enjoying success.  They have already won six times this season in only eight attempts.  Ryan Miller and Ales Kotalik are once agains a really big part of it.  Ales Kotalik has scored five goals again this season in only eight attempts.  Ryan Miller has to be the biggest story.  He has allowed only five goals in 25 shots and has earned six victories in seven shootouts that he has took part in. 

The chart above is an attempt to show you just how drastic a difference it is between this season and last.  When the season ends the extra points the Sabres earned in the shootout could be the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs.  I'm not ready to predict that the Sabres are going to be a playoff team just because they have been good in the shootout but the extra points certainly help.

How many times have we heard Head Coach Lindy Ruff say "We have to better 5-on-5" or "We just weren't good enough 5-on-5 tonight" or maybe "It's our 5-on-5 play, it's just not good enough".  If you're like me you have heard Ruff say this after various losses this season and the reality is he's right.  Sure...we all knew that was a concern but I didn't realize how bad it actually was until I started to break down the numbers.  If you have a weak stomach you may want to turn away right now because this is not a pretty sight.

As the numbers above demonstrate, the Sabres are struggling in even strength situations.  They are a minus 12 on when 5-on-5 and minus four when 4-on-4 (an area that this team used to thrive).   Numbers like we see above are usually the numbers of a team at the bottom of the standings but the Sabres special teams have been good keeping them in the playoff hunt. 

The penalty kill is currently ranked number two in the NHL.   They have allowed only 13 power play goals in 30 games while scoring three times shorthanded.  It's amazing to think that this team is a minus 10 while shorthanded but a minus 16 while playing at even strength.

What is the reason for the Sabres even strength struggles through the first 30 games?

New Philosophy: Commitment to Defense

Let's face it...this is something this Sabres team is not used to.  Does it make it wrong?  No, it's just different.  The team has proved that when they play this philosophy they can win hockey games if they take advantage of their offensive chances.  Playing their new style is not much different than the old style.  Lindy Ruff is asking players to back-check and to help the defense instead of thinking offense first.  This is limiting the number of offensive chances the Sabres get and they haven't really taken advantage of many of their opportunities which is lowering their goal total.

The new mentality has to be at least part of the Sabres struggles but the numbers are slightly misleading as well.  Buffalo has allowed a lot of goals in some of their losses including a stretch in mid-November when they allowed 18 in only three games.

Lack of Depth

To some people this is not surprise but I was floored when I seen these numbers.  Buffalo has a total of 51 even strength goals scored this season.  50 have been scored while 5-on-5 and one goal while playing 4-on-4.  That is a low number of even strength goals but of more concern is where the goals come from.  The big three (Thomas Vanek-13, Jason Pominville-6 and Derek Roy-7) have scored 26 of them.  That leaves a total of 25 goals scored by the rest of the team.

Early in the season I did a post where I was praising the team for getting secondary scoring but that has dropped off considerably.  If we do that same chart with the lines that were used on Saturday those numbers will be dramatically different.

When this team was on top of the league and winning the Presidents Trophy they had scoring from every one of their lines. Keep in mind that Derek Roy was a third line Center on that team and now I refer to him as one of the big three.  That says a lot about where this team is at offensively.

If this team is entertaining ideas of being a playoff team they need to be better while even strength.  It comes down to some of the second and third line players being better offensively than they have been.  Players like Jochen Hecht who scored 18 even strength goals last season and has one through 30 games this season.  It's not just Hecht that is struggling however.  Drew Stafford had 15 last season and has four this year, Daniel Paille had 16 last season and has three this season.  Even Roy (23 last year, seven this year) and Pominville (24 last season, six this season) have to be better.