So I've read in a few places, most notably Friedman, (thought #23, specifically) that Jeff Skinner has been shopped by Carolina, which is just about all I need to start up the ole' speculation engine.
Let's look at his vitals:
- 21yrs old. 5'11". 90kg (200lbs for those of you stuck in the dark ages )
- 5.725mil per year til 2018-19, with an NTC that doesn't apply until 2017-18.
- This is his 4th full* NHL season.
- 63 points in 82 games as a Calder trophy winning rookie in 2010-11.
- 44 in 64 in 11-12. 24 in a lockout truncated 42 game 2012-13.
- 176 points in 248 career games, made up of 90 goals( 24 with the man advantage ), 86 assists good for 0.7points per game.
Justin Bourne had the following to Say:
Look at his track record – he scored 30 as a rookie(!), scored 21 in 64 games as a sophomore (injury), scored 13 the next year (on pace for 25, lockout), and has 26 in 60 games this year. Oh yeah, and he’s still 21.
To compare those goal-scoring numbers to the first four seasons of other players who were in the league super-young, his goals-per-game clip (scoring in 36.3% of his career NHL games) is better than that of Marian Gaborik, Phil Kessel, and Jarome Iginla just to pull a few names out of a hat (and they all got off to solid starts). It’s about what Jonathan Toews put up (within a percentage point). Highly touted young goal-scorer Evander Kane’s goal-scoring rate is about 30.8%, nowhere near Skinner’s.
Skinner could be a 30-goal guy for nearly another decade. I know I’d be calling.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if it is true, and young Mr Skinner IS available, he might, maybe, be worth asking about...
Which leads to the question. What is he worth?
I have no idea what state the Hurricanes prospect system is in. I don't know what direction the organization are going in so let's wee what we can guess from their situation.
The 'Canes are sitting at 24th league wide and 12th in the East with a record of 31-31-9 from 71 games with a goal differential of -23. They're not good.
Their Goaltending isn't terrible. Cam Ward has had some rough patches with Injury and Anton Khudobin has been good for them in relief. With that in mind we can make the not unreasonable estimation that They could use some now and future help on Defense.
Shedding a 30 goal scorer leaves a small hole in the attack, which is already underpowered and sits at 13th in the east and 25th league wide. So they're going to want to plug that gap as well.
The stated motivation for the possibility of giving up Skinner is contract management, so we can assume that Carolina want to open up some space. Buffalo can't retain any further Salary from exported players so that means taking on whole salary.
Using only these assumptions. My first offer is as follows.
- Jeff Skinner
- Cam Ward
- +7.038mil in salary
- Tyler Ennis,
- Chad Ruhwedel
- Jhonas Enroth
- High second rounder, Either the one acquired from the Jets, via Minnesota for Matt Moulson or Sabres own.
- -7.038mil in salary
I'm not going to sit here and try to convince anyone that that is a package that get's the job done. It's merely where I start based on my incomplete knowledge and likely grossly faulty assumptions. Have a go yourself.