One Goal Games

by riverssyr on Feb 22, 2012 4:25 PM EST

I feel like this has been your entire season. You dominate all game and then find a way to lose in the end.

That was what some random Islanders fan sitting behind me at the game last night said to his Sabres fan friend, as the Islanders scored their first goal in the third period to make it a one goal game. I'm not sure how much I can take his opinion seriously, though. He did spend some time musing on the fact that hockey has no real home field advantage since there is no such thing as a goal line stand. He also legitimately spent some time trying to figure out who "#91" was, so yeah, not sure how dedicated this particular Islanders fan actually was.

But either way, his quote stuck with me enough to make me want to pull out the ole pad and paper and see for myself. Just how effective have we been in close games? Do we fold when the going gets tough? Surprisingly, that's actually not the case. In one goal games this year, the Sabres are 14-7-7. You might think overtime skews that statistic a bit, but they're at least an even 7-7 in games going to overtime or a shootout. They've come away with two points in 50% of contests that were decided by a goal or less. Granted, the record doesn't jump out at you like an overly impressive feat, but I did expect it to be a losing one.

On the flip side, the Sabres are 12-20 in games decided by two or more goals. Andy mentioned the lack of firepower as a problem with the Sabres attempts at staging a miracle playoff run earlier today. Couple that with the injuries to our top defensemen we've suffered this year and you pretty much get the story of the season. If we can keep it close, our chances of winning are as good as anyone's. But if we get down big, there's really no way for us to claw back. If you're still holding on to a shred of hope that the Sabres have a miracle run left in them, perhaps you can point to a healthy defense's ability to keep games within a goal's reach as our best shot.

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I think one of the reasons it seems like we find a way to lose is because it seems like we have trouble holding a lead. Back in Miller’s vezina year, a lead we essentially game over. We were something crazy like 30-1 with a lead after two periods. It’s a lot harder I’ve been a lot less confidant with 1 goal or even two goal leads.

One problem with the stats on games decided by 1 goal is that it probably doesn’t take into account games where we were down by one and then gave up an empty netter.

by kitaman27 on Feb 22, 2012 9:31 PM EST reply actions

Very good point about the empty netters

Definitely something that would swing the stats, but then again it could also cost us in the “winning by one” category if we net one ourselves.

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by riverssyr on Feb 22, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

Trouble Holding a Lead?

No doubt!

The analysis of one-goal games is interesting and a little surprising, but it only serves to highlight the fact that the Sabres have disappeared completely for whole periods at a time. It does no good to play well in two periods if the other guys score three or more unanswered goals in that period when all the boys go missing.

This problem seems to suggest that this team has only “one gear”. Past Sabre teams always seemed to be able to raise their intensity at critical junctures of any given game. Whenever the other team scored, I always had the feeling that the Sabres would get it right back. Down by one with an empty net, it seemed like the Sabres frequently would equalize to force overtime.

This team gives me the opposite feeling. Everytime a Sabre scores, I expect the other team to hit right back. Now it’s the other guys who force improbable overtimes and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Hopefully, things will continue to go the way they have in the last couple of games, and I will be able to shake this dread that has been clinging to me all season.

by chin8tao on Feb 22, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting.

I was wondering how we were doing in close games this year. As for that “Islanders” fan not knowing who 91 is….that is pretty shameful.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 22, 2012 10:49 PM EST reply actions

He also legitimately spent some time trying to figure out who “#91” was, so yeah, not sure how dedicated this particular Islanders fan actually was.

You should’ve blew his mind and told him he also plays lacrosse for the Bandits.

by Binthet on Feb 23, 2012 7:11 AM EST reply actions

The weirdest thing

Was that Uncle John Tavares was there shooting the tshirt cannon during a break. Awkward.

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by riverssyr on Feb 23, 2012 11:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Surprised

There is actually a Islander fan who doesn’t live on Long Island. Of all the teams in the NHL, I think the Islanders have the fewest fans outside of their immediate vicinity.

And yes, the Sabres’ inabilty to hold a lead has been their downfall this season. The reasons: one, the inability of the defense to protect their goal (we have too many puck moving defensemen and not enough stay at home defensemen); two, the inability of the offense to keep the puck in the opponents’ end for extended lenghts of time, and three, the slow recovery of Miller from his concussion (it took two months) coupled with the failure of Enroth to provide competent backup support.

by Geolover on Feb 23, 2012 9:20 AM EST reply actions