2012 NHL Trade Deadline: Market Value for 2/27

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 10:00 AM EST in Sab(re)metrics

With how our beloved Sabres have played in this new year, the majority of us have resided in the fact that if there was a year to win the Cup, this is not the year. As the trade deadline approaches with our team sitting uncomfortably in 15th place, it is safe to assume that we will be a seller and not a buyer until the clock strikes 3:00 pm on February 27th. Therefore, it is imperative that we examine some of the players on this roster that might be moved within the next 7 days and investigate the value they might receive when brought to market.

If you are interested in such a discussion, come take the jump.

First, in order to examine and compare the value of some players on the Buffalo Sabres, a trade market value should be established. To do this, some of the more recent NHL trades with the players current stats will be listed below and used as comparisons to a few players on the Sabres roster. For any minor league player involved in a deal (or a player who has played the majority of their career in the minors), there will be a link to their hockey futures profile. The number and letter in the parenthesis next to their name is their estimated projection by hockey futures, with the number representing the player's potential ability and the letter representing the probability of the player achieving that potential (for a more thorough explanation, read this).

As was done in previous articles, the Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) stat will be used (explanation here), along with a Point Shares (PS) statistic from HockeyReference.com. The point shares stat will include both an offensive (OPS) and defensive (DPS) statistic, which are an estimate of the number of points a player contributes with their offense or defense, respectively. If you are interested in a more in depth explanation of the point shares stat, you should go here. For centers, their faceoff win percentage (FO %) will be included, while all forwards will have their even strength offensive zone start percentage (Off. Zone Start %) listed. Due to length, time, and since the trade deadline is usually used to acquire rental players, only this current season of stats will be examined. Below is the list of recent NHL deals that will be considered:

January 12th:

Trade 1:

To Calgary:

Michael Cammalleri, LW-C (stat-line below); Karri Ramo, G (7.0 C); 2012 5th Round Pick

$6 M (UFA in 2014)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
52	14	15	29	-10	3.4	0.4	-0.9	3.0	2.2	0.7	2.9	51.5	51.8

To Montreal:

Rene Bourque, LW (stat-line below); Patrick Holland, F (6.5 C); 2013 2nd Round Pick

$ 3.333 M (UFA in 2015)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
54	16	5	21	-7	1.9	2.1	0.0	4.0	1.5	0.9	2.4	-	48.1

January 20th:

Trade 2:

To New Jersey Devils:

Alexei Ponikarovsky, LW

$1.5 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
58	9	14	23	-6	1.8	0.9	0.0	2.6	1.4	0.7	2.1	40.0	47.9

To Carolina:

Joe Sova, D (6.0 C); 2012 4th Round Pick

January 27th:

Trade 3:

To Chicago:

Brendan Morrison, C

$850 K (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
33	4	7	11	-2	0.3	1.0	0.0	1.3	0.4	0.5	0.9	49.1	49.3

To Calgary:

Brian Connelly, D (6.5 C)

February 16th:

Trade 4:

To Philadelphia:

Niklas Grossman, D

$1.625 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS
50	0	5	5	1	-1.6	1.9	0	0.2	-0.6	1.9	1.3

To Dallas:

2012 2nd Round Pick; 2013 3rd Round Pick

Trade 5:

To San Jose:

Dominic Moore, C; 2012 7th Round Pick

$1.1 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
54	4	15	19	-10	0.9	1.1	0.5	2.6	0.0	0.3	0.3	55.5	42.3

To Tampa Bay:

2012 2nd Round Pick

February 17th:

Trade 6:

To Nashville:

Hal Gill, D

$2.250 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS
51	1	7	8	-7	0.1	3.6	0.0	3.6	-0.1	1.3	1.3

To Montreal:

Blake Geoffrion, F (7.0 C); Robert Slaney, F (5.0 C); 2012 2nd Round Pick

Trade 7:

To Philadelphia:

Pavel Kubina, D

$3.850 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS
50	3	8	11	4	0.0	2.6	0.0	2.6	1.3	0.6	1.9

To Dallas:

Jon Kalinski, LW (5.5 B); 2013 2nd Round Pick (conditional); 2013 4th Round Pick

Buffalo Sabres:

Now that we have trades to establish a market value, lets look at some rumored players on the Sabres who could be up for trade within the next week. This list will include most expiring UFA contracts (except for Jochen Hecht since he is on the IR) and some other players that have been discussed in various trade scenarios.

Paul Gaustad, C

$2.5 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
52	7	10	17	1	0.8	2.4	0.0	3.2	0.4	0.9	1.4	56.8	46.7

From recent trade talk, Paul Gaustad is probably our most likely asset that will be traded by the 2012 Trade Deadline. To determine his market value, we can compare his current stat line to Dominic Moore; they are both very similar players who are used as defensive zone, faceoff specialists with almost identical offensive output. When examining some advanced statistics, we can see that Gaustad has better offensive point shares, defensive point shares and defensive GVT. Including his size, PK ability, and playoff experience (38 games), Gaustad should fetch at least what Moore received on the open market a few weeks ago. Using current market value, Paul Gaustad should have the trade value of a 2nd Round or late 1st Round Pick.

Brad Boyes, C-RW

$4.0 M (UFA in 2012)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
45	3	10	13	-5	-0.4	0.2	1.9	1.8	0.0	0.5	0.5	46.3	52.0

Last year's trade acquisition, Brad Boyes has struggled mightily this season, only registering 13 points through 42 games. While being quite an asset in the shootout (shootout GVT of 1.9), he is almost non-existent most nights in 5-on-5 play. Comparing him to some recent trades (Morrison and Ponikarovsky), Brad Boyes has the worst stats of any regularly playing forward that has been moved this season. If a team is looking for another winger who is ~~good~~ great on the shootout, he could have some value; otherwise, I could not see Boyes having much value whatsoever. For this year, Brad Boyes should have a trade value of a late round pick (6th-7th round) or possibly a 5.0 C prospect.

Jordan Leopold, D

$3.0 M (UFA in 2013)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS
55	8	9	17	-3	2.1	3.0	0.0	5.1	1.4	2.6	4.0

Signed in the Summer of 2010, Jordan Leopold has been a 3-4 pairing defenseman who sees play on our PP and PK units. A consistent player, Leopold's name has entered into trade rumors recently since some think he is expendable due to the plethora of prospect D-men we have in our organization. Some people are also concerned with the cap space our team would have next year, and the moving out of Leo's cap hit would give us $3.0 M of additional space for next season. Comparing Leopold to some recent trades, he is statistically better (Pts, GVT, PS) than any of the D-men that have been traded. Even going back to the Spacek/Kaberle trade on December 9th, Leopold has had a superior GVT and PS when compared to both of them. Since the recent D-men dealt have at least been worth a 2nd round pick and/or other additional picks and prospects, it can be concluded that Leopold would fetch at least this much on the open market. If he is traded, Jordan Leopold should receive a late 1st round pick or a 8.0 B prospect.

Derek Roy, C

$4.0 M (UFA in 2013)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
56	13	19	32	-7	1.5	1.5	-0.0	3.0	2.0	0.9	2.9	51.3	52.3

Signing a 6 year, $24 million deal back in 2007, Derek Roy has been arguably the most consistent Sabres performer during the post Briere/Drury era. Due to his down year and the success of last year's team had without him in the lineup, fans and media personalities alike have been clamoring for him to be moved out of town. Comparing his value to the other trades above, Derek Roy best matches the statistics of Michael Cammalleri, who returned a good but at the time struggling top-six forward (Bourque), a 2nd-3rd line NHL prospect who may reach his potential, and a 2nd round pick. Being a permanent center with a 0.82 ppg career average could also add value to a potential deal (this ppg is also similar to Cammy's 0.77 ppg average). Using current market value, a trade of Derek Roy should acquire a struggling or borderline top-six forward and/or a high (1st or 2nd) round pick and 6.5-8.0 B or C level prospect.

Drew Stafford, RW

$4.0 M (UFA in 2015)

GP	G	A	Pts.	+/-	OGVT	DGVT	SGVT	GVT	OPS	DPS	PS	FO%	Off. Zone Start %
57	10	18	28	-5	2.0	1.3	-0.8	2.5	1.4	0.9	2.3	51.5	53.4

Entering the first year of a 4 year, $16 million deal, Drew Stafford has failed to match his career best numbers of last season. Consistenly playing in the top 6, Staffy seems to be "snake-bitten" at times and fails to convert perfectly good chances to score. Thinking that the he is "overpaid" and a "bad contract", fans have wanted him to be traded him for many things, ranging from him being a part of a big deal to acquire a really good player, to just moving him for a "bag of pucks". Statistically, Stafford is having a similar year to Alexei Ponikarovsky who acquired a prospect projected to be a third line/5-6 D-man NHL player and a 4th round pick. Looking over his career, Stafford has a much better ppg rate than Poni (0.62 to 0.49) and should receive more value since he is 5 years younger and not a rental, which could make his value closer to Rene Bourque. Estimating his value with current market numbers, Drew Stafford should be worth a struggling or borderline top-six forward and mid-round pick or a high (1st or 2nd) round pick.

Conclusions:

From the list of Buffalo Sabres players above, Paul Gaustad and possibly Brad Boyes could be moved by next Monday. Since our team is last in the Eastern Conference Standings and both of these contracts are expiring, it would be ideal to acquire assets for them since we have a high probability of not making the playoffs, therefore not needing these players for a playoff run. While Jordan Leopold would look to have good value, keeping him would give us some D-man depth next season, allowing us a solid top 4 D with Ehrhoff, Leopold, Myers, and Regehr. For those worried about cap space, the salary cap is estimated to temporarily approach $69 million next season until the new CBA is ratified (this could lead to a salary rollback just like 2005, which would effect all players and reduce their contact to fit within a lower salary cap).

As for Derek Roy and Drew Stafford, both players would more than likely receive the best trade value in the summer around draft time when teams are building their rosters for the upcoming season. Personally, I would like to keep Roy since I think his current year is a statistical outlier (i.e. a bad season) when compared to his career numbers. Because of this bad season, trading him now would only get the team less value than a summertime deal. Also, a trade of these two would give us two holes in our top 6 (and a major one at center) with players who have scored 15% of our goals this season.

Overall, it is a difficult time to be a Sabres fan. While I would hate to see a long-time player traded, I know that doing so would be best for the organization. I would be surprised to see a huge deal from Darcy within the next week, but I am also aware that anything could happen. Hopefully some moves can be made, the proverbial ship can be turned around, and we will not need to experience a season like this for a long time.

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Comments

Im going on a cruise from this Saturday til next Sunday… Its going to be real weird not knowing what my team is going to look like when I get home, unless Puerto Rico or Grand Turk get NHL Network.

Im hoping Boyes is traded for a pick. Get what you can.

Gaustad, we should try to get something for him… and like twoeightnine said on Sunday, try to re-sign him in the offseason, let him know a head of time that thats what we’re trying to do.

Leopold, I dont want to see him go, but I understand if he does. Hes valuable.

Roy/Stafford, theyre the same in my eyes. If someone comes in and offers a nice deal, do it. But dont trade them just to trade them, there might be a market for them this summer too.

I think I read Brayden McNabb for Brayden Schenn was rumored out there, but that could have been before the they traded for Kubina.

Lets Go Buff a lo!

by bflo on Feb 21, 2012 10:10 AM EST reply actions

First, I am jealous of this cruise…have a good time Sir. I agree with everything you said, and I did not hear about the trade of the Brayden’s. That would be an interesting deal that could fill a need within our organization, though I think we would need to add in a deal like that since Schenn is one of the top prospects in the NHL. Also, I would think PHI would be best acquiring rental D’s (like they did) than trading a big piece of the Mike Richards trade to get a young D who may or may not help them this year.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

I think that McNabb for Schenn rumor was stated on here.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Or hfboards.com…there is all sorts of fantastic trade scenarios on there.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

I mean it makes some sense in the abstract

but in reality there’s no way Philly turns around and deals the big prospect they got in return for Richards for a lesser prospect even if he fills an org. need.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

I kind of see your logic in only using this year’s stats since they are rental players, but I still think teams will at least somewhat take a player’s history into consideration. In Boyes’s case they can at least point to last year’s production after he was traded at the deadline.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Feb 21, 2012 10:27 AM EST reply actions

I think you are right. My main logic was that if a team is acquiring a rental, they are more concerned with the rentals recent play that what they had done over their career. It is hard to quantify all parts of a trade due to the many variables that exist within one. For example, Roy matches well with Cammalleri, but Cammy was also a minor cap dump by Montreal. How much was this cap dump quantified into the trade? The same situation occurred in the Regehr trade this summer, where Calgary seemed to give us a 2nd round pick to take Kotalik.

For longer term deals (Roy and Stafford), I think their career numbers are considered more in a trade since the team acquiring them would have them for more than one season.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Good article

I don’t think there’d be any point to getting rid of Boyes, Roy or Stafford right now. I’d let Roy play out his contract and not resign him. I’d try to get rid of Stafford this summer. Boyes is gone after next month anyway, and I don’t think you’d really be able to get anything worth getting for him. If we got a 4th than maybe, but I’m not sure we’d even be able to get that.
I’d trade Gaustad for decently regarded prospect.
I think we could get good value for Leopold and I’d move him for a good prospect or a checking line forward. I’d also move Mike Weber for a prospect and replace him with McNabb because McNabb is more offensively talented, larger, and smarter than Weber. If these don’t happen at the deadline, I’d be okay with it, but I’d at least try to do it in the summer.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 10:51 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn’t mind replacing Boyes for anything since he only seems worthwhile to keep for his shootout capabilities. If you look at his OGVT and DGVT, those stats actually show that we would be better off replacing Boyes with a replacement level player in the NHL (i.e. a 13th forward or top line AHL player). I know his value is extremely poor, but if someone wanted him, they could probably have him.

I see Boyes’ situation as one that is similar to Alexei Kovalev’s last season; PIT ended up acquiring him for a 7th round pick from OTT. Yes, there is practically no value for that round pick, but it is better than receiving nothing in the off-season.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

But what is Brad Boyes value to a playoff team, when there’s no shootout? Sure, you have to get to the playoffs and shootout can be valuable to that goal I suppose. But Brad Boyes doesn’t scream playoffs. He’s never been on a team that’s won a playoff series.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

I agree.

And its why I think his value is extremely low. Still, if any team wanted him and was willing to offer anything, I would take it. Once he goes to UFA we would get nothing anyways, and I still think a 7th round pick > nothing.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Boyes

Would anyone be upset that instead of a pick for Boyes that the Sabres get a veteran AHL player who can help Rochester`s chances in getting into the playoffs? A player like a Jamie Tardif who is playing for the Providence Bruins comes to mind. I saw him play in Peterborough with Kaleta and was a team captain for Grand Rapids last year.

by BUBLSRM on Feb 21, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

I’d prefer that they get someone more serviceable and send Ellis down. But that will never happen.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

He could become a target for a team that loses out on their primary target.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

What about Roy

According to WGR he could be the cancer in the locker room that could be the cause of the Sabres play.

by Winnie33 on Feb 21, 2012 11:47 AM EST reply actions

There’s a good possibility of that, but it’s all speculative.
I’m more positive that Roy and Ruff are not getting along. When asked about Roy’s play after the game as far as keeping up his play, Ruff’s only remark was “That’s completely up to Derek.” I don’t think they’ve been on the same page for awhile and I think that’s part of the problem.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

vanek

After this mornings comments on WGR, I wonder if something is also going on with Vanek? I thought he was pretty hard on Vanek this morning when he talked about him taking stupid penalties. I also thought he wasn`t too critical of Roy during his interview.

I think that Lindy knows how to get through to players in different ways. I think he knows that he can be hard on a Vanek whereas a Kaleta doesn`t deal well with harsh criticism.

by BUBLSRM on Feb 21, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

He's always been hard on Vanek.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Could be the all time understatement

Ruff needs to wake up regarding Vanek.

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

?

Ruff was the one who molded him into the all-around player he is today. Obviously being hard on Vanek has worked so far.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

We'll never know the flip side

Maybe at least Vanek will comment on the topic without Ruff in the equation some day.

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Vanek comments like " I'm playing the system as hard as I can "

don’t sound like he appreciates the well rounded aspects as much as you.

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

How so?

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions

If someone asked me about my and teams' scoring drought

I wouldn’t give that answer under the scenario/relationship you might envision.

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

What was the context?

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions

That was the question and answer

Simple context

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

It doesn't seem indicative of anything but him playing within the system.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

Given your correct choice of the word seem

We can just leave it at that.

"I wore my knees out praying we'd win the 1st choice and could take Perreault. I never wanted a hockey player more."--Punch Imlach

by Sabresfansinceday1 on Feb 21, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

I think Roy was miffed when he was not named Captain by Ruff at the beginning of the season. It’s just a hunch. I think he is starting to get over it now.

by Geolover on Feb 21, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

Did anyone besides Roy think he actually had a shot at being named captain? If he thought there was, he must be dreaming. They tried a move like that once with Satan and they paid him to leave the team, so….

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 21, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

Sigh

@JeremyWGR
Lindy Ruff calls his relationship with Derek Roy much like a “father-son”, in that he has to be hard on him at times. #Sabres

Ruff says the relationship with Roy is good, and that there’s no way Roy could be a detriment to the locker room. #Sabres

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

It shouldn’t have to be like that. Seems kind of unprofessional. I mean, I understand that this isn’t the most conventional of jobs but still, I’d like to see a little bit more self-motivation from Roy. Ruff probably would too.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Well then, I would think Darcy should do something about it

by Winnie33 on Feb 21, 2012 11:59 AM EST reply actions

There was speculation that he was trying to move Roy last summer and he couldn’t get what he thought was a fair trade in return. There’s a lot of inertia against moving Roy because he’s been productive and has such a good contract, combined with the fact that we have no Center depth, which I think it’s entirely fair to hold Darcy accountable for. I think it’s the reason that Connolly was a Sabre for so long.
Ultimately, the problem with saying that Darcy should do x y or z is that it’s likely that he’s already done that and it just hasn’t worked out.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

Trade...

Boyes and Roy for whatever we can get. I don’t think getting rid of Stafford is a good idea yet. I think he needs to be getting first line minutes and we need to acquire a legit first line playmaking center to set him up where he likes to be, which is posted in front of the net. Getting rid of the Goose and/or Leopold is also wrong; unless we’re willing to concede that we are blowing it all up and starting from scratch. In my opinion Leopold should have been the captain.
I also think buying out Leino has to be seriously considered, before he becomes the albatross around the organization’s neck in the same vein as Rick DiPietro for the Islanders. We can say hindsight is 20/20 or I’m being an arm chair quarterback but if Detroit doesn’t want a player well…maybe somebody in the Sabres organization should’ve asked why not. His biggest output of goals in a season was 28…when he was playing in Finland. That move made our organization look stupid and deeply out of touch.
In the end this article made me sad to see who our favorite players compared to statistically and frankly I think was a mega reality check for how far away from contending for a Cup we truly are.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 21, 2012 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Alright. Just a few questions...

Why get rid of Roy for “whatever we can get”? Why is he that invaluable to you? Buying out Leino would force us with a $1.4-$2.4 M cap hit until 2022…is that really worth getting his contract off the books as soon as possible?

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 21, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

B/c...

Roy is going to be a UFA in 2013 so we should get something for him before he walks away leaving us w/ nothing in return.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

That means he has another year to increase his value.

Why sell when it’s clearly at the lowest it’s even been?

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 22, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

so leino, an under-achieving winger less than one year into his tenure, should be bought-out...

yet Stafford, an under-achieving winger several years into his tenure, should be given a promotion and a new center? Why the disparity?

by lgbfromoregon on Feb 21, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

In my opinion...

the answer to that question is that Stafford has put up numbers in the past. Last year for example. Leino has never produced anything, anywhere.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

I would say Leino's sample size is smaller.

He had one season of 50+ points and one playoff where he had 21 points in 19 games. The deal was a risky one, but I’d still like to hold on to him to see how much more he can improve in future seasons.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 22, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

Leino has a $4M cap-hit.

That’s never going to be an albatross.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

True.

As usual my analogy is over-exaggerated. But in my opinion he is the single most over-paid player in the NHL. Well…next to DiPietro of course.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

You can't trade Roy

Who are you going to play center? Come on, the man is coming off a nasty injury and wasn’t even skating well until end of November. He has been productive in the past.

by Coach Bob on Feb 21, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

UFA...

in 2013. Gotta get something or wind up w/ nothing.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

Ehrhoff/ Leino

Not related but if I here anymore people complaining about Ehrhoff or buying out Leino’s contract i might actually hunt you down and round house you in the face! Darcy finally goes out and signs some guys and in half a season they struggle and everyone hates the aquisitions! Ive been an Ehrhoff fan since he started playing for San Jose and he will only get better especially if him and Myers continue to kill it together.

Buffalo/ Rochester 2011! Thanks TP!

by thenewhockeytown on Feb 21, 2012 3:04 PM EST reply actions

1. They aren’t going to buy out Leino b/c it would hurt them capwise too much (there have been numerous commenters who’ve broken this down, so I won’t)
2. I think Ehrhoff has been looking pretty good lately and he will, in the long run, be more than worth his contract (which is relatively cap friendly)

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 21, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

3. If they bought out Leino, how are they going to attract other quality players to sign contracts in Buffalo not knowing if we are just going to push them out the door after one season?

by Buffalo_Fan_In_NC on Feb 21, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

I totally agree. Plus, if you look here FloridaBuffalo does a nice summary of the cap hit for no one if you buy him out. So it’s dumb for many reasons.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you sireric for bringing the furious punching cat back into my life. - poz

by bluecollarbuffalo on Feb 21, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

I never said...

anything about Erhoff.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

Carter

I wonder If Darcy would go after Jeff Carter. Did he ever play with Leino on the same line? I know the Leafs are the front runner for Carter but like they said this morning on WGR…..why cant we ever be considered? Its so frustrating!

Buffalo/ Rochester 2011! Thanks TP!

by thenewhockeytown on Feb 21, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions

Lenio played mostly with Briere and Hartnell in last year.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with the Sabres

Sabres lack quality centermen, so in my mind, Roy is vritually untouchable at this point. Boyes is a no brainer, underachieving and a free-agent. A team like LA may be interested in him for the right price. I would not trade Stafford either. I would trade Gaustad, with hope, the Sabres could resign him after July 1. The Sabres must clear cap space abd trading Boyes and Gaustad clears 6.5 million with the cap going up. Carter would be a good fit in Buffalo but the Sabres would need to move Boyes and Gaustad.

by Coach Bob on Feb 21, 2012 3:40 PM EST reply actions

Why?

Why would Carter be the guy? He wasn’t exactly the best locker room guy in Philly, is bored in Columbus, so what would make you think he would want to be in Buffalo or even that it would be close to working here? Would you want him signed through 2021-2022 because that’s what his contract is for? If he didn’t work out, that is not an easy contract to get rid of. People are freaking out about Ehrhoff’s term as it is.

by Philaster on Feb 21, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Carter or Nash are not the solution for the Sabres – they are finishers, and we are hurting for playmakers.

Roy is perfectly serviceable as a 2nd line center – unless he’s part of a package bringing back a first and second line center, the Sabres are no better off.

Smile.. tomorrow will be worse

by Calvin on Feb 22, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Trade GMs

Love what Yzerman is doing in Tampa. Can we trade GMs? I know we would have to give up a lot but would be worth it!!!!

by OhioSabresfan on Feb 21, 2012 9:16 PM EST reply actions

The Lightning are exaclty 1 point above us in the standings...

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Feb 21, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

Clarification on GM trade

I was referring to what Yzerman has done trade wise was so far. Now has 2 #1s and 2# 2s and I think a later round 4 or 5. He is building for the future and has a good core as well. The Sabres should be trying to do the same. Doubt our GM thinks like that based on history which is surprising given his success in drafting. Much better at that then in trading.

by OhioSabresfan on Feb 22, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

Winning

The problem as far as moving guys now is, all of a sudden they start winning at the deadline and actually think they can get in the playoffs, so Darcy won’t make a move for the future and be a seller. He’ll mostly stand pat (as usual) and let these guys walk for nothing. Meantime, there won’t be a playoff run to excite anyone.
Even if they somehow did sneak on, does anyone really believe this team is capable of doing any damage?

by markw6239 on Feb 21, 2012 11:21 PM EST reply actions

We have to ask ourselves...

Short of money, why would any big name free agent want to come to Buffalo right now? They can clearly see the side did not live up to they hype this year and would be wondering to themselves what the problem is.

Do you believe in miracles? YES!

by Up State NY on Feb 22, 2012 9:54 AM EST reply actions

It is one year.

We can blame it on chemistry, injuries, lots of players having poor seasons…many of things went wrong for this team to be this bad. The one thing that is good from this season is that it really exposed problems we always had (center depth) that never was brought to light in seasons where we make the playoffs. We still were aggressive last year in making deals to acquire good players (Ehrhoff, Regehr), so FAs should recognize that and know that one season does not define an ownership’s goal to win the Cup.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Feb 22, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions