Can we be realistic, just for one minute? Part 1

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 11:32 AM EST

How should we value our current players? What players can the Sabres actually get?

Raise your hand if you want to fire all of the sabres. I see a hand in the back. And another hand.

Oh wait, Every hand is up. The frustration level is off the chart right now. I get it, I get it. That said, I am not really capable of the kind of ridiculous, in depth, statistical evaluation of recent posts.

What I do think is valuable is thinking, realistically, about what the players on our roster are worth. I'll go in descending order, and, keep in mind, these are largely subjective, and I'm not going to take too much into consideration stats like Player Value Threshold, Goal Value Threshold, etc. I'm thinking of trade value and/or draft pick value. AKA What each player on the roster would fetch in return if management really does burn it to the gound.

First Pile: Elite Players

Tyler Myers: Worth at least a top 5 pick or top 3 forward. Big, mobile, visionary defencemen don't come along very often.

Thomas Vanek: One of the top 5-10 LW in the league. Worth a top 5 pick or Top 3 forward.

Second Pile: Very good but not exactly irreplaceable: Christian Erhoff, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Andrej Sekera, Tyler Ennis, Nathan Gerbe, Drew Stafford, Ville Leino, Jordan Leopold, Jochen Hecht, Luke Adam, Jhonas Enroth, Robyn Regehr and Brad Boyes.

I recognize that these players, aside from Pominville, are not terribly popular at the moment, and, aside from Pominville, are all having down years or career worst years.

What is the trade value of these players? A comparable player or late first round early second round draft pick, and maybe, on the low end, a lower-end prospect or third round pick.

Third Pile: Role Players: Paul Gaustad, Patrick Kaleta, Cody McCormick, Matt Ellis, Mike Weber, and Mark-Andre Gragnani.

I think there will be pretty minimal return on any of these players - you might be able to package one of the young d-men with another player to up the value to a team that is thin on the position.

Fourth PIle: Hard to Quantify: Rookies, Blue Chip Prospects, Former/Future Stars.

Ryan Miller: How the heck do you value Ryan Miller? He can be dominant at stretches, despite his overall statistical mediocrity, and might be absolutely dominant on a team with 6 real NHL d-men, or he might still be mediocre.

Zach Kassian, Joel Armia, Mark Pysyk, Brayden McNabb.

I think to the right team, any of those guys could be extremely valuable. I think all of those players are extremely valuable to the Sabres organization.

What do you think of my kinda/sorta subjective rankings? I imagine there will be 20+ comments of Stafford Sucks! Roy Sucks! Grags Stinks! But that's not really what I'm going for here - more of getting some discussion of the relative value of our players, each of whom we hate right now (except for Thomas, Pommers, and Myers.)

Next post: Who can we get? What would it cost?

This is a fanpost written by a member of the community, it doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Die by the Blade

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Comments

With Goose and Hecht (I believe)

being UFAs at the end of the year, I expect both of them gone in a little over a month. Probably for draft picks. Those are two players that teams heading into the playoffs would want.

I dont see how we can get good value on players like Roy or Stafford, although I also want them gone at the same time. You could probably get more for Roy but would it be worth it? Would it be addition by subtraction? We wont know the anwser to this until it were to happen, and then give it a year or two after to reflect.

Myers and Vanek are my only untouchables. Unless something stupid like Malkin, Toews or Stamkos were available.

I hate that I love Buffalo.

by bflo on Jan 20, 2012 11:45 AM EST reply actions

I agree

Although I’d add Goose into the list of players that could very easily be dealt at deadline time to a contender. His contract is expiring and he will be unrestricted which means we could entertain the idea of re-signing him. The point however, is that he is a valuable piece to a team in the hunt. He wins faceoffs, plays great defensive, grinding, checking hockey including penalty killing. Players of his ilk are often moved at the deadline and teams looking for a little grit and defense and ability to win faceoffs will certainly be calling Darcy to see if he is available at the deadline.

"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula

by willgarr15 on Jan 20, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Haha,

I did say Goose, him and Hecht. But yes, completely agree.

I hate that I love Buffalo.

by bflo on Jan 20, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

wow

reading apparently is not my strong suit. not sure who I thought you meant, but I guess what I meant was I agree? haha

"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula

by willgarr15 on Jan 20, 2012 6:05 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

Happens to the best of us.

I hate that I love Buffalo.

by bflo on Jan 20, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

That’s what happened to Chris Kelly last year, and he and Goose have similar numbers. Kelly has been more consistent but Goose is younger. Worked for Ottawa.

by Philaster on Jan 20, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Pysyk is another that I wouldnt be too upset parting with.

We have a lot of depth at Dman, plus I didnt like that pick to begin with.

Kassian, McNabb and Armia are players I wouldnt want to see gone.

I hate that I love Buffalo.

by bflo on Jan 20, 2012 11:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Agree about Kassian. He, Filigno and others are the kind of big power forwards we have been trying to stock-pile the last few drafts and off-seasons as the future core of this team. I see Kassian as a huge member of this team in 2 years and beyond.

"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula

by willgarr15 on Jan 20, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Too early on Pysyk

Pysyk could easily be the best Defenseman we have in the system – he’s looked dominant this year as a defensive defenseman whereas Gaulthier-Leduc has trailed off after being a dominant PMD in the Q. Do you really want to get rid of a consistent defensive defenseman? By comparison, Pysyk has been way more productive than Mike Weber ever was in Jrs.

by Philaster on Jan 20, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

as Sabres fans, we want to get rid of whoever we’re mad at, until we aren’t mad any more.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Im not saying get rid of him to get rid of him...

but if we are targetting a big name top line Center via trade, and Team X asks for us to throw Pysyk into the deal, I would. He is an unknown in the NHL, let alone the AHL and Im willing to deal that. If he turns out awesome, oh well… but Im just saying Id throw him in a deal if it meant getting a #1 Center or not.

I hate that I love Buffalo.

by bflo on Jan 20, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

It’s hard to talk about trade value without bringing contracts into the conversation.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Jan 20, 2012 12:05 PM EST reply actions

True, and if there were no cap, you would probably see more movement. Unfortunately, teams aren’t willing to take on a slight upgrade (like Roy as a 3rd line center) at a 100 to 150% price premium over whatever player they have.

Or at least I imagine that’s the case.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

How is Grags a role player?

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by Ogre39666 on Jan 20, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions

He sucks!

He is less than a role player. Are you seriously saying Marc “Turnover” Gragnani who can’t clear the front of the net is anything but?

by Coach Bob on Jan 23, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

Power play specialist is probably how he’ll end up in this league, or a 3rd pairing d-man. At least that would be my guess.

On the Sabres, his roll is pressbox note-taker.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 3:43 PM EST reply actions

You're really selling his ceiling short if that's all you think he'll ever be.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Jan 20, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

yeah right, rookie defensemen who lead their team in +/- and relative corsi never amount to anything.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Jan 20, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with Andrew completely.

His assessment is spot on!

by Coach Bob on Jan 23, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Did you even read what Frank Reich Revolution wrote? The stats show he’s helping way more than he’s hurting the team, notable exceptions aside.
Has Gragnani had turnovers that have hurt the team? Absolutely. Is he physical? Not really. But why should that be the only measure of a defenseman? Is Weber better because he’s more physical even though he makes mistakes that are just as dumb and costly?

by Philaster on Jan 23, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

Think about this

First and foremost, a defensemen must be an effective defensemen. I believe there are certain prerequisites in the modern NHL, a defensemen must be able to be physical down low to be efffective. Now, if you can find a guy who can carry the puck and flash offensive skills, great. Gragnani also gets a lot of powerplay work which inflates his plus/minus along with the fact he rarely plays against top lines. Yes I did read his post.

by Coach Bob on Jan 23, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, a defenseman must be an effective defenseman. But that’s entirely solipsistic. There are different way one can be effective. Gragnani has shown he can be effective in pro hockey given the fact that he won the Eddie Shore award last year. He’s a work in progress in the NHL, but the signs are more encouraging than discouraging. Brian Campbell had his tirefire moments before he became as good as he is. You don’t have to be physical down low to be effective. There are a ton of guys who aren’t physical who have done very well and are effective, like Campbell.
Gragnani did have to play against the top lines when everyone was hurt and that was when he was getting lit up. Being young, there’s no reason to put him out there otherwise when you have guys like Regehr.

by Philaster on Jan 23, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

Again with this?

There are plenty of good defensemen in the NHL who are not overtly physical.

Gragnani also gets a lot of powerplay work which inflates his plus/minus

You don’t get a plus if you score a goal on the PP so I have no idea what you’re getting at.

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by Ogre39666 on Jan 23, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe I’m a bit low on Grags, and I don’t like to bash players, but it seems that, despite his good offensive play (and stats) that he isn’t very good down low, and that he doesn’t have a whole lot of grit to his game. And I’m not trying to discount his actual production, but point out some of the issues that might lead to a coach not playing him much, and issues that might decrease his value.

Is that a deal breaker? At this point in his career should questions about toughness and drive have been answered?

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions

.

he doesn’t have a whole lot of grit to his game.

Does Lidstrom have a lot of grit to his game? What about Dan Boyle or Bret Burns? Yeah grit would be nice all things being equal but it is far from required to be a valuable defenseman.

At this point in his career should questions about toughness and drive have been answered?

What, how did we get to questioning his toughness and drive? Just because a guy doesn’t initiate a lot of contact doesn’t mean he’s weak or doesn’t care.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Jan 20, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Those guys aren’t gritty, but I think they are all pretty hard to play against. Right now, it seems like Grags isn’t hard to play against.

Let’s say I’m wrong about the toughness/drive issues – would you agree that he isn’t hard enough to play against in the defensive zone to make up for his offensive upside?

And I’m not really looking for a statistical rebuttal – more of an assesment of his play.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 20, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

Why would he have to "make up" for his offensive upside? You have to make up for deficits, not assets.

As to whether he is hard to play against, no he doesn’t strike me as particularly hard to play against. However, those other guys don’t particularly strike me as hard to play against either. What makes Lidstrom so good in his own zone is his perfect positioning. Give Grags more then a year in the year and I’ll think he positioning will improve.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Jan 20, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

Oops, bad sentence, and maybe a bad thought. I don’t think he has to “make up” for his defensive shortcomings offensively – I imagine that the coaching staff thinks that his defensive shortcomings are a deal breaker. Personally, I think he’s an interesting player who could be very valuable, but I don’t know that he’ll get that chance here.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 21, 2012 8:47 AM EST up reply actions

Grags is 9th overall in TOI (5th among defensemen).

And he has the second most PP time among defensemen.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Jan 21, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

I think out of all the problems this team has, Gragnani’s lack of defensive upside is about 30th on the priority list. Yet with a lot of fans, it seems to be in the top 5. One player isn’t going to make that much of a difference. He’s not that bad. Honestly.

by Philaster on Jan 21, 2012 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

What games are you guys watching?

He is a turnover machine, has a poor shot, and lacks the physicality to clear the front of the net. I agree with Andrew, he would be a powerplay specialist only!

by Coach Bob on Jan 23, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

His offensive upside isn't that good.

Gragnani has a poor shot so I think you have seen his upside. Myers has a lot more offensive upside than Grags. Look, you have Erhoff, Leopold, Myers, with offensive skill, how bout some guys who can play defense.

by Coach Bob on Jan 23, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

Gragnani is a great passer though, and that can be just as deadly. See his goal on the power play against Phlly last year in the playoffs. Gragnani waited for just the right time to shoot where the goalie had no chance. You can’t teach that.

by Philaster on Jan 23, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

In his last two years in the QMJHL has was point per game player and he had 60 points in 63 games last year with Portland.

But yeah, his offensive upside isn’t that good…

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Jan 23, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

I do think it would be interesting to read a statistical analysis about the trade value of players, and I wonder if you would come to significantly different conclusions than mine.

by Andrew Brautigam on Jan 21, 2012 8:42 AM EST up reply actions