How will the Sabres get under the cap?
by Philaster on Aug 17, 2011 12:36 AM EDT
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Now that Marc-Andre Gragnani has been signed - how will the Sabres get under the cap? At least part of the answer is simple - to waive Ales Kotalik and Shaone Morrisonn. But this won't be enough. Part of the answer may lie in the evaluation that Darcy Regier has done on the roster. Will the Sabres be more willing to sacrifice their defensive depth in someone like Andrej Sekera who was just signed to a big raise - but one that could be manageable for another team? Will a forward like Jochen Hecht, Brad Boyes or Jason Pominville be on the move? And if so, do they think that Luke Adam would be able to step up? Darcy has indicated that he may not be done wheeling and dealing - in the past (during the Golisano regime) he has said that he is done for the off=season. He has given no such indication this year. It might be worth it to evaluate Centers on other teams around the league that could A. Help the Sabres make a Cup run (yeah, I went there) B. would make less in salary than the assets the Sabres would give up to fit under the cap. My guess is that it would be a short list. Thoughts?
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Run to the Cup
I keep hearing that teams that expect to make a run for the Cup need three important factors.
1. Have to be strong down the middle (Center)
2. Steady and productive Power Play
3. Strong face-off players
I don’t believe Darcy addressed any of those in the off season. So maybe some trades are coming!
Here's a better lit of things teams need to be legite Cup contenders:
1. Overall depth
2. Goaltending
We have both.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ehrhoff
On the PP last season
Ehrhoff: 6G, 22A
Sekera: 6A
Myers: 3G, 11A
Butler: 1A
Gragnani: 2A
Leopold: 5G, 6A
So if you’re counting, that’s a grand total of 8 goals and 26 assists from our entire defense corps last season on the PP, which Ehrhoff nearly accomplished on his own. How did Darcy not address the powerplay again?
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
by willgarr15 on Aug 18, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Internet Commandment #6:
Thou shalt not use logic on the internets.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
by bgred105 on Aug 18, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
My bad....
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
Without Kotalik’s and Morrisonn’s salaries the Sabres will be about 1M under the cap. So please explain why you think we need to trade away our depth… Teams need, above all else, ONE thing to make a cup run: depth. Depth at all positions. The Sabres are pretty competitive in that area, and they can get under the cap without losing any of it, so why make unnecessary trades?
I don’t necessarily. Just wanted to see what everyone thinks they will do. I personally am not inclined to agree that they will be okay just being 1 million under the cap – it doesn’t leave them with much flexibility. The defensive logjam will also have to resolve itself somehow – better to deal from a position of strength and get assets you need in return than lose them anyway in the offseason.
The “defensive logjam” is solved if Morrisonn leaves, correct? That leaves us with 7 defenseman. We all know at least one injury is inevitable, so we will probably be rolling 5-6 NHL-caliber defenseman at any given time. If we are healthy and we have 7, one sits in the press box. Not a bad “problem” to have. I’d call it depth more than a logjam, it’s only one extra player.
by lassathrax on Aug 17, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe for this season
What about the future? Brennan and Schiestel might be ready, not to mention Gragnani. Maybe they’d be better than Sekera? Not saying that they are or not (although I’m certainly not convinced on either Sekera or Weber). It’s a good problem to have to be sure; but regardless, the Sabres have a ton of depth that they might be able to capitalize on.
In the future, the cap will rise and some contracts will expire, prospects will sink or swim in their injury call-up opportunties, and the Sabres will run with their top 7 defensemen. If the 8th and 9th guys are really so NHL-ready that other teams are offering up some pieces that would really improve our team, then of course those trades will happen at that point. But for now, I don’t see any problems – cap-wise or talent-wise – with our defensive depth. Gragnani is a recent breakthrough NHL player, so rotating him between the press-box and the bottom-pairing when (and only when) all 7 guys are healthy doesn’t seem like it will be an issue, and everyone below him on the depth chart is still at the AHL talent level, even if they could make it in the NHL on some more shallow teams. They’ll get their time eventually. As for Sekera and Weber I think they have both established themselves as consistent NHL-caliber defensemen, and their progression is far ahead of any of the guys in Rochester (or else those guys would make the Sabres roster in training camp). I think Regier has already addressed the defensive situation by dealing Rivet and Butler and Montador (and presumably Morrisonn’s departure is pending). So if you think we got rid of 4 starting defenseman between last season and next season, and we only gained 2, opening full-time roster spots for past part-timers Weber and Sekera, and a part-time spot for Gragnani. I think it is crazy to desire any faster roster turnover than that, our defense is easily top-5 in the league right now and I wouldn’t trade away a single player in that top-7.
The one thing that makes me think you might not be right is that Regier said yesterday, as he has said all along, that he does not want to send Morrisonn and Kotalik down to Rochester and he would prefer to resolve things by trade. He might have to sweeten the deal with those two. There are still teams that need to get to the floor. I wouldn’t mind a young gritty winger/center or a draft pick in return.
I would only be looking center….we have (roughly) one million wingers in this organization. And you could be right about us sweetening the deal; most of us who think those two would or could be buried in the minors are just assuming this would happen because of our new owner’s financial prowess. If Pegula does not want to do that, I could see Darcy needing to send something the other way for a team below the floor to take Kotalik’s contract.
Of course this is all speculation and I would rather not trade additional players/prospects to get below the cap, but it is a possible outcome to the situation. IMO it is a step backward if we send an asset to get rid of one of these players when we could afford to just pay them in the minors for a year and keep our goods.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
I don’t necessarily see it that way. I don’t think it will be a money thing if Pegula/Black/Regier don’t want to bury Kotalik and Morrisonn in Rochester. They think of themselves as good guys. It’s not Hockey Heaven if, when you come and things don’t work out, you get buried in the minors and your career dies. It will be good PR if they can trade him and have him start his career elsewhere.
I think it’s good if they trade them so we could get anything for them, I just think it is counterproductive to trade assets so that they could play on another team. Is Hockey Heaven as good as it used to be if we trade assets to get rid of players? In my eyes, that lowers the value of Hockey Heaven since we are willing to trade away productive players to give other players who cannot make our roster another chance on another team.
It’s not like I want to bury them in the minors over trading them, but if no team shows trade interest and then no team picks them up on waivers, they will go to Rochester. I am sure Pegula/Black/Regier would not want to go “kill” a guys career, but I think they would be willing to make such a decision if it meant that the Buffalo Sabres are a better team because of it.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
by bgred105 on Aug 18, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
Morrisonn is NHL-caliber; he just had one bad season on a team that no longer has a use for him, and probably isn’t a good fit for him anyway. I agree with Phil that sending him to languish in the AHL for a year could kill his career and would be a poor reflection on the Sabres. And I don’t think it’s a way they like to do business anyway – recall what Darcy said about trying to find a trade for Rivet last season (and there is no reason not to believe him). They’ll find a place for Mo, we just have to be patient. (I think I should just make a recording.)
Kotalik is a different story. His rep around the league isn’t great and I don’t think anyone is winning to take a chance on him at this point. However, he did play is best hockey in Buffalo, so if any team could rehabilitate him it’s this one. I don’t think he has a place on his roster, but if he has a good training camp and puts up a good showing early in the season (especially as we don’t know Pominville’s status at this point) there might be a team that discovers they could use him in November or December. If Pommers is LTIR during that time we don’t have a cap problem. A lot depends on that, really.
Of course you first look at the trade market, then waivers, then AHL
but if he doesn’t fit on the roster, he doesn’t fit on the roster ad if he isn’t the best option, he isn’t the best option.
And the last I heard, Pominiville was expected to be in camp.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Aug 21, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with this assessment.
I think any offer to trade or waive them so that either or both of them find NHL jobs should be taken, so long as we don’t have to sweeten the deal with additional assets.
If none of those offers appear, I think they should be given their fair shot to make the big team in training camp. If they impress, then they should make the team over someone else, and the financial issue can be dealt with. If not, they can be waived, and if no one picks them up then they will get a huge salary to play in Rochester and mentor our prospects. If an injury happens they can be at the front of the call-up line.
So I can see Morrisonn being claimed on waivers, but not Kotalik. I bet after Darcy deems there isn’t enough trade interest for either player, he will give them a shot to make the team and if they don’t impress enough they will be waived. If they clear waivers (betting Kotalik will and Morrisonn won’t) then they will play in the AHL, because really it is either AHL or buyout for them at that point, and a buyout makes absolutely no sense.
We had a similar amount of cap space in 06-07, and Darcy was able to manage that situation well enough. While a ~$1 million in cap space would only give us enough space for one call-up, I think we will be able to handle it. I really do not see a move happening until once the season starts and we encounter either:
A) Lots of injuries and we need cap space to acquire or promote players
B) Leino is awful at C and we need a another #1-2 C
If neither of these happens, subtract Morrisonn and Kotalik off our roster and we are probably set.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
I agree, but even in those two scenarios:
(A) LTIR players’ salaries do not count against the cap, so we would have cap space to sign or promote replacements
(B) Even if Leino sucks at center we will likely not be able to find a better top-6 centerman to replace him, so Lindy would probably just shuffle the lineup. Boyes or Gerbe at center would not be the end of the world, but I have to assume Leino will be better than either and everything will be fine.
I wasn’t thinking about LTIR, more about maybe short term injuries, but good point. What if we have four or five players who get hurt or sick in a few game stretch and cannot play for a week or so? The players could go on IR if its for more than 7 days and less than 24 days or 10 games, but their cap number would still count against the cap. Being so close to the cap, we would have to play with maybe a 19-20 man roster for a few nights, which would either be a reduced roster or a roster with no scratches. Of course this is all a worst case scenario, but situations like this could present themselves throughout a season.
For your second point, I would agree with you. I really cannot see us acquiring a 2nd C in this situation..we would probably just shuffle lines and take the hit if we cannot find a solid C in our depth chart.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
We’ll roll with Jochen Hecht at center then, like we always do.
Original member of the Mike Weber bandwagon!
To make up for lost time, the Sabres signed six seasons worth of front-loaded cap skirting contracts in one week.
Right on.
I can live with that.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
Lots of teams in those wosrt-case-scenario situations play a few games with a short-handed roster and manage just fine. As long as you aren’t so cap-strapped you have to play with a short bench for an entire season (like the Devils did last year, didn’t bode well for them), but we are by no means in that situation. We have plenty of cheap call-up players to fill holes, short-term call-ups shouldn’t break our cap space for the whole year, even if it is only 1M.
Here is a good writtien on FeartheFin last year that discusses this type of situation as well. Definitely worth a read.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
Great article, thanks for clarifying.
So LTIR salary does not stop counting, but they allow you to go over the cap by the amount of that salary until the LTIR player is reactivated. So essentially, it would not be an issue unless (as you pointed out) there are several short-term injuries simultaneously. At that point, we will be able to use one of our scratches and make one call-up (or maybe we could stretch and make 2 call-ups). So if we had more than 2-3 short-term injuries at one time then we may be faced with playing a man short for up to a week. It is highly unlikely but when it has happened to other teams they have been able to cope and even win some of their games with a short bench.
No problem….and I would imagine we could play with a 11 F / 6 D / 2 G lineup if we really needed to for one game. I really would not want too, but it is a necessary trade-off to have when putting a really dynamic lineup on the ice.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
I really like our team now.
Though Jarret Stoll or Valteri Filppula in LA and DET would be nice fits, their cap hits ($3.600 and $3.000/ one and two more year(s) on contract, respectively) wouldn’t yield much relief unless we were sending $5 million+ the other way. To be honest, an acquisition of a center from another team is going to be a hockey trade; there is no way we can fleece a team like we did in the Regehr trade. If we are to acquire another center, we would have to send an asset like Boyes or Hecht the other way.
It should be noted that some of you don’t like either of these players and are okay with this; IMO, both are good and I would like to see them play for the Sabres this year. Yes, Boyes struggled in the playoffs, but he also had 14 points in 21 games in our stretch run, which is nothing to ignore. Hecht on the other hand brings versatility and solid two-way play to the team, which I like a lot and value.
Overall, the situation yields an interesting tradeoff since we would need to give something good to get something good. I do not see us trading any players we gave new contracts to this off-season; yes SJ did this with Setoguchi, but I do not think Darcy has that in him. We signed these players to long-term deals to build a more solid core to our franchise, therefore trading them would defeat the purpose of us signing them. Also, signing players to long-term deals then trading them looks bad when we want to sign other prospects in our organization to their 2nd and 3rd pro contracts (a la Philly and SJ….was Carter and Richards happy about their trades?). Therefore, any players that are traded for a C would need to be a winger who has an expiring contract at the end of the season or a winger/D prospect. Of course I could be wrong, but I would be surprised if a Pommers, Stafford or Sekera are dealt to another team in the coming future.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
I’m to the point where I honestly don’t know how to feel about Hecht. I do think he’s a solid asset and I think he thrives in this system. But the not being healthy in the playoffs for two seasons running bugs me. He’s not 28 anymore. Is it possible that he just can’t play a full season without wearing down? If that’s the case, then we might look into getting another gritty winger that’s a little more durable.
Or make sure we monitor his playing time more carefully.
Limit him to around 60 GP’s instead of 65-70 and 16mins of ATOI instead of 17+.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Aug 17, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Which is why one might try to limit his playing time during the regular season.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
accidental post
I wasn’t sure what you were supporting – beside him playing in the playoffs.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
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