FanPost

How did the Sabres do this Off-Season? An updated GVT analysis

In my initial post, I analyzed the Sabres off-season by examining the GVT (goals versus threshold) for departing and acquired players.  While this was my first foray into advanced hockey statistics, I feel (and I was told) that I may have done a few things incorrectly.  A few mistakes I made were:

1. My sample size was too small: Extending my analysis to over a few seasons would allow a more accurate depiction of the actual GVT gain or loss the team will seen.

2. I analyzed players we re-signed: While they are acquisitions perse, they are not new acquisitions that would contribute to our team GVT.  If we lost them to free agency they would be a loss, but if we sign them they are not a gain because they were on our team last season.

3. I analyze players that are technically not departures yet: Mike Grier (FA) and Shaone Morrisonn (under contract) most likely will not be back with the team this season, but they have not departed and/or retired as of this date.  Therefore, they are not included in the departures category.

Below I re-analyze our departures and acquisitions using the NHL seasons of 2008-2009 to 2010-2011.  For any season a player does not play in the NHL, I write DNP (did not play) in the box.  A DNP is equivalent to a GVT of 0.0.  In my analysis, I will also include playoff GVT;  I did not do this initially because I did not know that the data existed.  In searching though, I found a new spreadsheet on Hockey Prospectus that details all-time GVT; therefore, I will include playoff GVT in my analysis.  Playoff GVT will be smaller numbers since there are less games played in a playoff season when compared to a regular season.  For example, Leino's monster playoffs in 09-10 gives him a GVT of 5.3, which was ranked 6th in the NHL for playoff players.

Below are spreadsheets that display the total GVT of each player who have departed or were acquired by the Sabres this off-season.  The GVT from the three seasons for both charts were calculated and will be compared to one another.


Departures GVT:

Player Name

Regular Season GVT

Total RS GVT

Playoff GVT

Total Playoff GVT

08-09

09-10

10-11

08-09

09-10

10-11

Steve Montador

6

5.5

9.8

21.3

1.6

-0.1

-0.4

1.1

Tim Connolly

9.2

9.7

5

23.9

DNP

-1.2

-0.1

-1.3

Chris Butler

2.9

2.2

2.2

7.3

DNP

DNP

-0.4

-0.4

Mark Mancari

-0.1

0.4

0.7

1

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Rob Niedermayer

0.9

3.8

0.3

5

-0.5

-1

-0.1

-1.6

Craig Rivet

5.6

2.8

-0.7

7.7

DNP

-0.2

DNP

-0.2

Paul Byron

DNP

DNP

-0.2

-0.2

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Mark Parrish

1.6

-0.5

-0.5

0.6

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Patrick Lalime

-2.6

-0.5

-2.1

-5.2

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Overall Totals:

61.4

-2.4

 

Acquisitions GVT:

Player Name

Regular Season GVT

Total RS GVT

Playoff GVT

Total Playoff GVT

08-09

09-10

10-11

08-09

09-10

10-11

Robyn Regehr

3.5

4.5

6.3

14.3

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Christian Ehrhoff

9.3

15.9

12.7

37.9

0.1

0.8

1

1.9

Ales Kotalik

9.4

2.1

0

11.5

DNP

DNP

DNP

0

Ville Leino

2.5

-0.2

10.9

13.2

0.3

5.3

0.3

5.9

Overall Totals:

76.9

7.8

Comparing the GVT of our departures and acquisitions, our acquisitions' GVT is 15.5 points higher than our departures' GVT for the regular season, and 10.2 points higher in the playoffs.   Even when including more seasons and not including our re-signings, I think it shows that our team has greatly improved this off-season based on the free agents, and trades we have made.  When I included Mike Grier and Shaone Morrisonn in my GVT analysis, it decreased our regular season GVT difference from +15.5 to +1.8, but it increase our playoff GVT difference from +10.2 to +11.8.

Player Name

Regular Season GVT

Total RS GVT

Playoff GVT

Total Playoff GVT

08-09

09-10

10-11

08-09

09-10

10-11

Mike Grier

4.6

2.8

2.5

9.9

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.9

Shaone Morrisonn

2.9

0.4

0.5

3.8

0.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.7

Overall, it still looks like the Sabres made an improvement this off-season through our signings and trades we made.  While the total difference in regular season GVT becomes small when including Grier and Morrisonn, we still have a greater GVT coming in to our team than leaving it, which is a lot to say since the majority of our off-season work was in signing our own RFAs.  I will like to re-examine this off-season a year from now with 2011-2012 GVT data to see if we really did make a major team improvement in the Summer of 2011.

Again, any disagreement or comments on my analysis are much appreciated.  I still claim to be no expert, but I feel this analysis I have completed is an improvement over my previous FanShot on this matter.  I personally find these advanced stats very enjoyable, and they seem to add a new dimension to my hunger for hockey. 

This is a FanPost written by a member of the community. It does not necessarily express the views or opinions of Die By The Blade.

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