How did the Sabres do this Off-Season? An updated GVT analysis

by bgred105 on Jul 28, 2011 3:17 PM EDT

In my initial post, I analyzed the Sabres off-season by examining the GVT (goals versus threshold) for departing and acquired players. While this was my first foray into advanced hockey statistics, I feel (and I was told) that I may have done a few things incorrectly. A few mistakes I made were:

1. My sample size was too small: Extending my analysis to over a few seasons would allow a more accurate depiction of the actual GVT gain or loss the team will seen.

2. I analyzed players we re-signed: While they are acquisitions perse, they are not new acquisitions that would contribute to our team GVT. If we lost them to free agency they would be a loss, but if we sign them they are not a gain because they were on our team last season.

3. I analyze players that are technically not departures yet: Mike Grier (FA) and Shaone Morrisonn (under contract) most likely will not be back with the team this season, but they have not departed and/or retired as of this date. Therefore, they are not included in the departures category.

Below I re-analyze our departures and acquisitions using the NHL seasons of 2008-2009 to 2010-2011. For any season a player does not play in the NHL, I write DNP (did not play) in the box. A DNP is equivalent to a GVT of 0.0. In my analysis, I will also include playoff GVT; I did not do this initially because I did not know that the data existed. In searching though, I found a new spreadsheet on Hockey Prospectus that details all-time GVT; therefore, I will include playoff GVT in my analysis. Playoff GVT will be smaller numbers since there are less games played in a playoff season when compared to a regular season. For example, Leino's monster playoffs in 09-10 gives him a GVT of 5.3, which was ranked 6th in the NHL for playoff players.

Below are spreadsheets that display the total GVT of each player who have departed or were acquired by the Sabres this off-season. The GVT from the three seasons for both charts were calculated and will be compared to one another.

Departures GVT:
Player Name	Regular Season GVT			Total RS GVT	Playoff GVT			Total Playoff GVT
Player Name	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total RS GVT	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total Playoff GVT
Steve Montador	6	5.5	9.8	21.3	1.6	-0.1	-0.4	1.1
Tim Connolly	9.2	9.7	5	23.9	DNP	-1.2	-0.1	-1.3
Chris Butler	2.9	2.2	2.2	7.3	DNP	DNP	-0.4	-0.4
Mark Mancari	-0.1	0.4	0.7	1	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Rob Niedermayer	0.9	3.8	0.3	5	-0.5	-1	-0.1	-1.6
Craig Rivet	5.6	2.8	-0.7	7.7	DNP	-0.2	DNP	-0.2
Paul Byron	DNP	DNP	-0.2	-0.2	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Mark Parrish	1.6	-0.5	-0.5	0.6	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Patrick Lalime	-2.6	-0.5	-2.1	-5.2	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Overall Totals:				61.4				-2.4

Acquisitions GVT:
Player Name	Regular Season GVT			Total RS GVT	Playoff GVT			Total Playoff GVT
Player Name	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total RS GVT	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total Playoff GVT
Robyn Regehr	3.5	4.5	6.3	14.3	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Christian Ehrhoff	9.3	15.9	12.7	37.9	0.1	0.8	1	1.9
Ales Kotalik	9.4	2.1	0	11.5	DNP	DNP	DNP	0
Ville Leino	2.5	-0.2	10.9	13.2	0.3	5.3	0.3	5.9
Overall Totals:				76.9				7.8

Comparing the GVT of our departures and acquisitions, our acquisitions' GVT is 15.5 points higher than our departures' GVT for the regular season, and 10.2 points higher in the playoffs. Even when including more seasons and not including our re-signings, I think it shows that our team has greatly improved this off-season based on the free agents, and trades we have made. When I included Mike Grier and Shaone Morrisonn in my GVT analysis, it decreased our regular season GVT difference from +15.5 to +1.8, but it increase our playoff GVT difference from +10.2 to +11.8.

Player Name	Regular Season GVT			Total RS GVT	Playoff GVT			Total Playoff GVT
Player Name	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total RS GVT	08-09	09-10	10-11	Total Playoff GVT
Mike Grier	4.6	2.8	2.5	9.9	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	-0.9
Shaone Morrisonn	2.9	0.4	0.5	3.8	0.1	-0.6	-0.2	-0.7

Overall, it still looks like the Sabres made an improvement this off-season through our signings and trades we made. While the total difference in regular season GVT becomes small when including Grier and Morrisonn, we still have a greater GVT coming in to our team than leaving it, which is a lot to say since the majority of our off-season work was in signing our own RFAs. I will like to re-examine this off-season a year from now with 2011-2012 GVT data to see if we really did make a major team improvement in the Summer of 2011.

Again, any disagreement or comments on my analysis are much appreciated. I still claim to be no expert, but I feel this analysis I have completed is an improvement over my previous FanShot on this matter. I personally find these advanced stats very enjoyable, and they seem to add a new dimension to my hunger for hockey.

This is a fanpost written by a member of the community, it doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Die by the Blade

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Comments

Great analysis

So excited about the next season.

by maestro110584 on Jul 28, 2011 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

I think the Sabres had a few great acquisitions this year, Regher is very solid and Erhoff will help a lot, I think they paid a little too much for Leino, but he may prove worth it when he gets top 6 minutes. Given all the money that was spent, the Sabres are over the cap limit. As an Avs fan, I have no need to worry about being over the Salary Cap (we have to worry about reaching the floor, haha) but how do you guys think the Sabres will relieve that 3.6 mill that they are above the cap? Burying players in the minors a la, Redden and Souray?

by ProfessorOak on Aug 2, 2011 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe...

or trades or send them to Europe. The main two culprits that are being looked at are Morrisonn and Kotalik, whose salaries total $5.025 million. Once we sign Gragnani (probably at 650-700K) and move those two off the books, we would have around 800K in cap space. Of course, that is a really small amount, but it will be enough to get us into the season.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Aug 2, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

although Hecht could be another candidate as well. I think Gragnani may get slightly more than 700k maybe 800ish give or take, because he played real well when he was called up, and totally dominated the AHL, he’s gonna be a great player one day.

by ProfessorOak on Aug 2, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Hecht will stay. He’s a solid 3rd liner, and Lindy seems to like him. Of course, he’s being paid like a top six, but I think he’ll probably stay on the roster this season.

by maestro110584 on Aug 2, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions