How did the Sabres do this Off-Season? (A GVT analysis)

Inspired by the Hockey Prospectus article that analyzed the Philadelphia Flyers off-season, I wanted to examine how the Buffalo Sabres acquisitions would improve our Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) from last season.  To briefly explain, a GVT stat compares a player to the value of a replacement player would be in terms of goals.  Since goals are the only metric in determining who wins or loses a hockey game, developing a statistic that can compare forwards, defensemen, and goalies is a good way in showing how much a single player can benefit or be a detriment to a team.   A much more thorough explanation is given on Hockey Prospectus in a series of articles  (Part 1Part 2Part 3) by Tom Awad, the developer of the GVT statistic.  Below, I will analyze the Sabres acquisitions of the off-season, and compare their GVT from the past year to the ones of the players leaving our organization.

First, I should explain that all GVT data is available from Hockey Prospectus here.  In my analysis, I will only using GVT data from the 2010-2011 NHL regular season; no data from the AHL was analyzed.   Below is the list of players departing from the Sabres and their respective GVT.  In this analysis, every player who played for the Sabres last year who will not be back with the team (either left in free agency or was traded) is included.  The GVT stat accounts for this since it factors in how many games a player plays; therefore it is fair to analyze a players GVT if they played 9 games in the NHL last season, or 82.  While this list could change, I added Mike Grier and Shaone Morrisonn since I currently do not see a spot on the team for them unless a trade (which will effect the GVT) happens later this summer.



Steve Montador: 9.8

Tim Connolly: 5.0

Mike Grier: 2.5

Chris Butler: 2.2

Shaone Morrisonn: 0.5

Mark Mancari: 0.4

Rob Niedermayer: 0.3

Craig Rivet: -0.1

Paul Byron: -0.2

Mark Parrish: -0.5

Patrick Lalime: -2.1


Total GVT of Departures: 17.8


For the list of acquisitions, I will include any players who were acquired (re-signed, FA signing, or trade) by the Sabres this off-season.  This includes any player who had any regular season time in the NHL this past season. 



Robyn Regehr: 6.3

Ales Kotalik: 0.0

Christian Ehrhoff: 12.7

Ville Leino: 10.9

Mike Weber: 6.7

Nathan Gerbe: 8.1

Andrej Sekera: 8.5

Drew Stafford: 13.2

Cody McCormick: 2.4

Jhonas Enroth: 0.7

Colin Stuart: -0.0

Matt Ellis: -0.9


Total GVT of Acquisitions: 105.9


Comparing the GVT of our departures and acquisitions, our acquisitions' GVT is 88.1 points higher than our departures' GVT.   While this is not an all encompassing analysis, I think it shows that our team has greatly improved this off-season based on the re-signings, free agents, and trades we have made.  I also claim I am no expert at this type of statistical analysis, and if I have left anyone off the list or have done something totally wrong, please let me know.  If anything, this analysis should prove that in fact, Darcy Regier is a Jedi.

This is a FanPost written by a member of the community. It does not necessarily express the views or opinions of Die By The Blade.

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