A Statistical Investigation of Lindy Ruff-Coached Teams.
by Ogre39666 on Dec 28, 2011 4:27 PM EST
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Editor's Note: Every once in a while, a fanpost is just too good to not be on the front page. This is one of those posts.
With the season going the way it is, there's naturally been a lot of talk about Lindy Ruff. Everyone seems to think they have a good understanding of the coach and the system he implements. No matter the media outlet it seems every post or comment thread eventually has a claim about the coach. Discussions about Lindy have become the NHL's version of Godwin's law. I thought I'd take the time to critically examine his statistical record - and suffice to say, since he took over the Buffalo club in the summer of 1997, there's plenty of it.
I originally wrote this piece for my buddy's blog (Tonight's Healthy Scratches; check it out) but with the WJC and Winter Classic, it wasn't going to get published within the coming weeks so I got the okay to post it on here on DBtB.
Things to keep in mind:
Before we get to the actual analysis, I wanted to first introduce two caveats. The first is that we don't know just how much influence any coach has on his team. We know it's non-zero and we know it's not complete. I'd estimate it to be around 25-30% of the "influence pie" with player-talent being around 60-70% and any leftover portion consisting of various intangibles like the leadership of the team Captain, fan support, referees, ice quality, arena amenities, etc. It's just an educated guess, but one based off of studies about baseball managers and their impact on W/L records. These studies show that even the best managers are only worth a handful of wins (bad managers are more harmful than good managers are beneficial, but even then the impact isn't very big; maybe 5-7 games). Since it's safe to say that a coach in hockey has more impact on what happens on the ice than a manager does on the field, their impact increases accordingly.
The second caveat is that this analysis is results-oriented. It focuses on the end product of Ruff-coached teams instead of their process. It is possible that there were years where they ended up not producing well, but for the most part were doing all the right things and were just unlucky. There could also be years were they did end up producing well but weren't really deserving of their success. The simple, yet powerful chart above outlines this more clearly. However, this is not to say that results-oriented analysis is useless. Luck tends to even out over time and since our sample size is quite large, it shouldn't be too big of an issue.
Data:
(Click to enlarge)
Conclusions:
1. On a year-to-year basis, Ruff-coached teams fluctuate pretty wildly. This makes sense since the personnel differs from year-to-year. However, on aggregate, Ruff-coached teams seem to be in the top half of the league in both offense and defense (I say “seem” because the league rank average here is a rough average – meaning I took the yearly ranks and averaged them).
2. We can definitively say that the performance of any one particular aspect of a Ruff-coached team relative to the league does not correlate very well with the team’s success. There are years when the offense ranked highly, but the team suffered (2007/08) and there were years when the defense ranked highly but the team's success was not reflective (1998/99) and vice versa. The league rank of GoalsFor/Game and GoalsAgainst/Game have a positive, but weak correlation with where the team finished in the Conference standings. In the graphs below we can see this more clearly; the points on the graphs don't fit neatly on the trend lines, but the trend lines do have positive gradients.
(Click to enlarge)
3. Ruff has the reputation of being a “defense-first” coach when in reality, he started out that way, but has since evolved into an offensive-oriented coach. You can see this when you separate the data around the lockout. Previous to the lockout, Ruff-coached teams reached the top-ten in GoalsFor/Game only once in seven years and had a League Rank Average of 17.56. After the lockout they were among the top-ten in the category five out of six years and had a League Rank Average of 6.67.
Similarly, before the lockout Ruff-coached teams made the top-ten in GoalsAgainst/Game five out of seven years and had a League Rank Average of 8.43. After the lockout his teams were among the top-ten in the category only two out of six years and had a League Rank Average of 13.17. It's not as stark a contrast as the offense, but is still a clear delineation.
This contrast makes sense since in his early years the personnel required he preach a defense-first philosophy (Hasek, Peca, Satan, McKee, and no one else worth mentioning) and in the post-lockout years the personnel allowed for an offensive-oriented philosophy (Drury, Briere, Vanek, Roy, Campbell, Miller, etc.). That this is not widely known is no surprise. The main-stream media loves to repeat the "Sabres are offensively challenged" meme. Unfortunately, it looks like they are doing a good job of convincing people. Since the Sabres are advertised as an offensively-challenged team, people assume the corollary; they must be a defensive-oriented team and Ruff must be the same defense-first coach he was when he first got the job back in the Hasek era.
4. The last and arguably most important thing we can definitively say about Ruff is his teams make the playoffs more often than not. He has seen payoff action nine times in thirteen seasons as head coach; good for a 69.23 rate. Ruff-coached teams have lost in the Cup Final once (1998/99), the Conference Finals three times (1997/98, 2005/06, and 2006/07), and the Conference Semifinals once (2000/02). Ruff-lead teams have made it out of the first round 5 out of 9 times; good for a 55.56 rate. With the Sabres' history of rosters short on talent, payroll, or both, this is most impressive. Yes, he's never won the big prize, but this seems to suggest that Ruff gets the most out of the talent he has and that's all anyone can ever really ask from a head coach.
This is a fanpost written by a member of the community, it doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Die by the Blade
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Bravo.
Why isn’t this on the Main Page yet?
"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."
BOOM
Editor’s Note: Every once in a while, a fanpost is just too good to not be on the front page. This is one of those posts.
"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."
by FloridaBuffalo on Dec 28, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Along These Lines
Ruff once asked Al Arbor what was needed to win the Stanley Cup. Arbor reportedly replied the you have to have the players (talent/determination, I assume). Lindy repeated the question several times and Arbor replied with the same answer. Finally, Arbor relented and stated the you also need some luck.
If Arbor is right, then replacing Ruff would do no good, because we just don’t have the players. A corolary of this conclusion is that we have never had the players (or at least enough of them), even though we have had some near-great teams, because we have never won the Stanley Cup.
That wasn’t Lindy Ruff. It was Darcy Regier
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Hockey/NHL/Playoffs/Buffalo/2006/05/05/1565798-sun.html
Regier grew up playing for Al Arbour with the Islanders, learning the hockey business from Bill Torrey.
“I once asked Al, what’s the secret to building a team? He said no secret, it’s not complicated, get good players.”
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=2393
When I was starting out in Long Island, I wanted to know how you build a Stanley Cup team, said Regier. I expected Al to say, well, you need two scoring lines, one checking line and one role line; and three offensive defencemen and three defensive defencemen and a great goaltender.’ Instead, he said, first of all, you need good players.’ Then he said, it’s four rounds, you need a lot of luck.’ When I reflect back on it, I think, yeah. He was talking about having so much respect for the process and this is a guy who won 19 straight playoff series.’
"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."
by FloridaBuffalo on Dec 28, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or we never had luck
The loss in Game 7 vs Carolina comes to mind. That was a pretty great team with some horrible luck losing our top however many D men, McKees being the unluckiest of them. Other years I’d say you’d have to agree that we haven’t had the horses, last year vs. Philly being rather obvious that we were out manned.
Whatever the case, nice write up Ogre!!
by buffaloparks on Dec 29, 2011 2:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also as apparently everyone forgets, we were doing fine in that game until the dreaded “Puck over glass” penalty by Toni Lydman. (thanks to a Jochen Hecht “Oops i scored™” goal.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Colin Stuart."
look at his posts from today in the scoring chances topic. He’s back to his negative pessimistic self. Dude’s a bipolar troll.
"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."
by FloridaBuffalo on Dec 29, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
the problem with this response of arbor's
is he was being modest, not truthful.
Fabulous work!
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
by bgred105 on Dec 28, 2011 8:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yes.
Hate the “offensively challenged” stereotype. Versus announcers love to point out each year how the Sabres are offensively challenged, presumably because we lack a media-inflated superstar forward. Yet whenever they say it, we are within the top 10 in the league for goals scored. Just lazy assumptions.
The problem is, this is and always will be a “how’d you do in the playoffs?” league, and more importantly “what’ve you done lately?” Is it fair, no, but it is what it is…Ruff’s teams as of late haven’t made the spring exciting! Coach’s in every other sport are thrown out because of not having success once championships roll around, baseball, football, basketball alike! Heck, Marty Schottenheimer was ditched after a 14-2, league leading record because his team was ousted after one round in the playoffs! I fully respect Ruff for how good he WAS, but he has to answer for what we’ve done lately….meaning turn the ship around and get us deep into the playoffs now that you have the talent….or maybe its time to look elsewhere
So you want Darcy and Pegula to be reactionary and ignore Ruff's long track history of being a good coach because the team didn't fulfill the ridiculously high expectations held by some of the fans and the media?
Yeah they’re currently in 11th but the year isn’t over and with all the injuries it’s hard to blame anyone.
People who want Ruff fired usually point to one of two things:
1. He message is stale/bad/old and he’s inflexible
2. He hasn’t won a Stanley Cup
The first is flat out false as demonstrated above. The second, while true, is both short-sighted and naive. He has made deep playoff runs in the past (often with incomplete, flawed teams) and there are plenty of sub-par coaches who have won Cups.
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by Ogre39666 on Dec 29, 2011 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
And of course you also have to consider that there is no one out there who has even close to as good a track record.
For instance, I think Scott Gordon could be a very good coach. He did pretty well with a pretty crappy Islanders team, had some decent AHL results, and was selected as an assistant coach for Team USA so he has some positive results and a good pedigree. That said, it would be a huge gamble to fire Ruff and hire him. You’d be removing a known good coach for an unknown, presumed decent coach.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Dec 29, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Mike Babcock chose him as his assistant coach of team Canada, which is worth more to me then every member of the media’s opinion combined.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Colin Stuart."
I think this is just outstanding stuff. Especially when you can show all the people who say that Lindy is a 1 trick pony who wont adjust.
Huge kudos man. I saw this right before the game started and deliberately made myself wait so I could sit and really read it without getting sidetracked by the action.
post of the year, man
really awesome stuff – can’t fight the numbers!
by Kristopher Settle on Dec 31, 2011 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
My thoughts on Lindy Ruff are neither option 1 or 2. Do I think he has a problem with not being emotional or not being able to reach the players dynamically anymore, maybe, but that’s not my issue. As far as the cup comment, well, 30 teams try for the cup every year and only 1 gets it, I can understand that, so saying a coach is bad because they can’t win it, while in reality is what the end result is expected to be, is slightly unfair because that means there are 29 bad coaches every year and thats not true. HOWEVER, I will say that I’d like the sabres to actually compete for it…quite hard to do when you are out after 1 round or not in the playoffs at all.
I don’t think Lindy is a BAD coach, I personally just think he’s losing his edge, he’s becoming complacent, and that maybe fresh blood might invigorate this team. It worked for the Penguins, who fired their coach 1 year removed from the Stanley Cup finals because they were sitting low in the standings! It’s worked for a few other teams as well. That’s all I am saying. I’m not calling for Ruff’s head by jumping on bandwagons, simply just not content that in 8 years, Ive only seen past round 1 twice and the most recent was almost 4 seasons ago
I can tell you definitively that the coaching changes that worked are always associated with a team that has good possession numbers but bad results (St. Louis was second in the league in possession when they switched coaches). The Sabres have horrible numbers(Columbus-esque) and are getting average results.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Colin Stuart."
by Ubiquitous on Dec 29, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Penguins also fired something along the lines of 7 coaches in 9 years and were so good that they were able to find someone like Olcyzk to make them bad enough to get to draft Andre-Fluery-Malkin-Crosby-Staal (Granted Eddie O was only there 2003-2005) in successive first round picks taken 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd overall.
It’s not that I don’t get the sentiment, but there is a lot more to the picture than just ‘Bylsma came in and just because of that the Penguins won the cup’ argument.
Pitt already had an outstanding team who just the season before got beat by an exceptional Red Wings team for the cup.
They’d have been even better if they didn’t make the huge blunder of drafting MAF. (imagine Eric Staal or Nathan Horton as a Crosby winger)
The next two goalies picked were Corey Crawford and Jimmy Howard (Halak was picked much later so i can’t bring him up). MAF is barely better than Brian Elliot(also in that draft, picked second to last)
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Colin Stuart."
MAF is a much better goalie than Elliott.
Elliott has one half-year of none-sucky play. Fleury is right up there with the best goalies year-to-year if you look at his adjusted point shares. And look how much longer it too Crawford and Howard to make it than it did Fleury. Now sure, some of that was pure opportunity since the Penguins were so bad back then, but Howard wasn’t in the league full time until 2009-10 – a full season after Fleury was raising a Cup above his head. Crawford wasn’t in the league full time until 2010-11 – a full two seasons after Fleury had a ring. And it’s not like Detroit or Chicago had great goaltenders blocking them. Detroit had the thoroughly mediocre Osgood and Detroit had Huet.
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Howard was actually trapped by the salary cap (and dominik hasek)
Chicago had Huet and Khabibulin the year before they went with Crawford and they both played fairly well.
Player S%
Howard .918
Halak .915
Crawford .913
Fleury .909
Elliot .905
Admittedly, some of this descrepency is due to mismanagement, if we exclude his first two seasons (to give everyone a more even footing age-wise) he’d have a .912 and then at least he’d be way better than Brian Elliot.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Matt Ellis."
.
I don’t think Lindy is a BAD coach, I personally just think he’s losing his edge, he’s becoming complacent, and that maybe fresh blood might invigorate this team.
So you want to fire a good coach based off of speculation and conjecture? I’ve proven that Ruff has adjusted his coaching philosophy in the past, why do you think he can’t do it again? Or is it that you think he won’t?
It worked for the Penguins, who fired their coach 1 year removed from the Stanley Cup finals because they were sitting low in the standings! It’s worked for a few other teams as well.1) I don’t think anyone ever called Michel Therrien a good coach, 2) The Penguins were clearly a more talented team that their record showed at the time, and 3) the “new coaches reinvigorate teams” meme is a myth.
I will say that I’d like the sabres to actually compete for it…quite hard to do when you are out after 1 round or not in the playoffs at all1) historically Ruff-coached teams make the playoffs more often than not, and 2) when in the playoffs, they average a 2nd round exit. This holds true even after the lockout.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
by Ogre39666 on Dec 29, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Personally
I would like to fire Darcy, not Ruff. Give Ruff some shooters and he can win as we saw in 2006-2007.
Give him a bunch of passers that are too scared to take an open shot, and you see what you get.
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by The Buffalo Kid on Jan 15, 2012 7:31 AM EST up reply actions
WE HAD THE SAME LINEUP TWO GAMES IN A ROW IT WAS A MIRACLE
But then Andrej Sekera left with an injury. So close…
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Matt Ellis."
Remember when it was fun and the only lineup debate was when/for who to put Weber in and who Hecht was going to replace?
Man those were the days!
At least Jochen Hecht is preventing a goal per game with good backchecking which is why he’s on the top line and not Luke Adam. Derek Roy is on the second line so that we actually have a second line.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Matt Ellis."
You ignored one important fact about Ruff
When he took over this team, the team was referred to around the league as the hardest working team in the NHL. They have gone down hill every year since
Way to miss the entire point of the piece.
A statistical investigation is done specifically to side-step subjective things like perception and reputation in favor of objective facts.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Jan 2, 2012 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Real nice stuff here, Ogre.
Die By The Blade - Your home for the best Buffalo Sabres talk online.
@andyboron
Even if you concede that Ruff is a very good coach and the minute he gets fired his phone will be ringing like crazy, you can still make an argument that he should be fired. Last year the team was mediocre at best until it became clear that a new owner was coming in, after which of course they played much better. The Pegula effect has apparently worn off at this point. If the Pegula effect was real – i.e. the Sabres are capable of playing that well when they really want to – can’t you make the case that the team has started tuning Ruff out?
by Frank Reich Revolution on Dec 29, 2011 5:32 PM EST reply actions
It would be a case constructed on nothing but conjecture.
The facts are that Ruff has a history of being a very good coach and there aren’t any available coaches who have even close to as good a track record. You don’t make changes for the sake of change and you certainly don’y make changes for the sake of change when there is nothing worth making the change for.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
At some point a mediocre team has to make a change whether it’s the coach or player(s); you never know if a change is going to improve the team or not, so I don’t buy the “change for the sake of change” thing, I don’t think teams actually do that. I’m not advocating that the team should fire Ruff, I’m just bringing up the possibility that the team is tuning him out. I definitely don’t think that a move like that should be made right now, you have to give him the rest of the season at least.
by Frank Reich Revolution on Dec 29, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
there aren’t any available coaches who have even close to as good a track record.
After we beat the Caps, I made a joke to my friends about “Goodbye Boudreau” but when I then thought about it, I couldn’t think who the hell there was to coach the team if Boudreau was fired. Then they announced Dale Hunter and I simply thought “…are you serious?”
Really?
I’m not saying the guy who wrote this is right or wrong… but I honestly don’t get the big ordeal about the article. Good post, but not worth the hoopla that it’s getting in my book. I’m not saying that I can come up with mind-boggling information to post either, but just saying. The bottom-line in the argument comes down to a matter of opinion and whom exactly matters with their opinion. Obviously, in this case the only opinion on Ruff in the entire world that matters is Terry Pegula’s. So, until he posts his opinion on here, it’s relatively fruitless to waste the time and effort to debate it.
I am of the belief that you can probably create a statistical analysis (pro or con) for a number of coaches out there either with teams now or having been relieved of their duties over the years. The end of the day, every coach (good, great, or terrible) in every league is hired to someday be fired. Ruff has had a good go of things here in Buffalo and although I’ve never been a complete fan of his, I do recognize that the man has often times overachieved considering the talent level he’s been given. Which, in turn, takes me to the statement from Al Arbour quoted via Regier in a reply post… Arbour said to “get good players”. Define “Good”. That point is what is being missed here, in my opinion. Good doesn’t always mean the guys with the best stats. Good, I believe is regardless of statistical analysis… HEART, DRIVE and DETERMINATION cannot be measured by stats alone. The best teams that Ruff has coached have not always been the most talented, but they showed the most Heart, Drive and Determination. Finding those players falls on Regier much more so than Ruff, but currently Ruff looks to have minimal influence on the current roster. That takes nothing away from the man as the coach for who/what he is, but what it means right now is that something must change… it doesn’t mean he has to go, but someone at this point must.
I’m cool with Ruff staying, but blame has to start somewhere and I’m not buying the injury excuses. The players who were hurt (exception being Myers, who wasn’t playing well this season anyways) are pretty much role players or guys that us as fans have been complaining about anyways. The Pens lead the league in games lost to injury and they aren’t making excuses (not to mention losing Crosby is much more detrimental than losing Boyes or Kaleta). Maybe the Pens would be undefeated if they were healthy then? That is my one beef with Ruff this year. He’s never been one to use excuses, but I’ve heard him on mutliple occasions this year say “we need to get healthy”. While that is pretty much an obvious statement for any team in any sport, by him saying it publicly it gives the players in that room a mental “out” when it comes from his mouth. Of course, he always states the opposite obvious statement as well “others have to step up”, but that doesn’t have as much direct impact on the guys in the room because each guy can say to himself that means the other guy(s).
End of the day, I’m more frustrated with Regier at this point because he assembled this roster and he has time and time again held onto his drafted players past their prime value and one can only believe that it is due to sentimental attachment. Regier is weak, end of story. Every article about Ruff brings up what he has done with limited talent throughout his coaching career, but that still falls on someone and that someone in my mind is Regier. Regier supporters quickly point out the ownership issues of the past, fine. I’m of the mindset of where and when do the excuses stop? I’ll wait for that point, but everyone who gives me these excuses just keeps finding one more (injuries, chemistry, Ruff, need a Center, etc.). My point being, at some point someone has to be held accountable in any organization – sports or real world. Who will be that person if things don’t turn around pretty soon… AND at what point is it time to make that call? Those are the true debate worthy topics, from my perspective (the little that is worth).
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by djc1877 on Dec 30, 2011 2:21 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Call me crazy
but I’ll take the “heartless” guy with 25 goals and 60 points a year over the “gutty”, “grissiony” dude who only scores 10 goals and 30 points.
I’m not buying the injury excusesRight, having your best players out is no big deal. Corey Tropp and Joe Finley are just as good as Ennis and Myers. It’s not like the Penguins have Malkin or anything…
Wgt Regier let’s not forget he has had to work with limited budgets for basically his entire tenure. I mean he had to go to video scouting because his boss was too cheap to pay for on-location scouting – and the man’s drafts didn’t noticeably suffer. Look at some of the 2nd-pairing defensemen around the league and you’ll get an appreciation for Erhoff’s $4M cap-hit (hint Paul Martin and James Wisniewski). The reasons (or “excuses” if you prefer to play the blame game) will stop when Regier has an extended period of time with no internal cap-restrictions (like more than one offseason).
And part of the reason for the article was all this talk about “someone being held accountable”. Well, look at the results. Since Ruff was hired (by Regier after he himself was hired), this Buffalo hockey team has made the playoffs more often than not – and when in the playoffs, made it past the 1st round more often than not. If you are really committed to holding people accountable then you should be praising Regier and Ruff because they have been doing a good job (i.e getting to the playoffs and getting out of the first round).
Obviously, in this case the only opinion on Ruff in the entire world that matters is Terry Pegula’s. So, until he posts his opinion on here, it’s relatively fruitless to waste the time and effort to debate it.Well, that settles it. No one do any research. Unless you are a CEO or an owner, nothing you do matters no matter how illuminating it may or may not be. That Bill James guy really wasted his time. Not to toot my own horn, but the "big deal " about this article is that if you read it and don’t toss aside it’s findings because you don’t like them, you realize how little Ruff-haters have to go on. When the whole point of this blog is rational discourse, that’s kind of a big deal.
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Look at Pittsburg and their injuries
They are still at the top of their division. Injuries are nothing more than an excuse
Seriously?
Dude, you better learn to take constructive criticism better than a 10 year old if you’re going to keep posting things online. I’m sorry that I have a different opinion than you, but last I checked… it’s still a free country, for the time being anyways. Seriously, I like Ruff… so I did read your “analysis” and I’m fine with it. That being said, there have been (on many occasions) coaches with better records than Ruff who have been fired… oh, and by the way, some of those guys had won Stanley Cups too. AND they didn’t always have Saints for owners either. All I’m saying is that when the Sabres do well under restrictive conditions, then Ruff and Regier get all the credit in the world. When they do wrong, they get the benefit of every excuse in the book… in that world, these guys are simply perfect and none of us should have any opinion otherwise. I guess if I just stated that, then I wouldn’t get your cry-baby response on here? The bottomline is that I’m sure these guys will have more than this season to show what they can do with the roster (now and next year’s) before Pegula decides to alter the roles of either one going forward. That’s fine, but while fans in Buffalo keep paying ridiculous prices to watch a team play less than entertaining hockey (albeit uninspiring on most nights… Ruff’s words, not just mine, on multiple occasions)… they deserve more than smoke and mirrors from Pegula after the big words and promises he threw around when he bought the team. I don’t know about you, but I didn’t put a gun to his head and ask him to set such lofty expectations… he did that just fine all on his own. I love that Pegula has bought this team and quickly began to turn the image of the franchise back around. I wouldn’t want it any other way; however, life is just a little too cozy for some of these players obviously. And the example of Finley and Tropp for Ennis and Myers (whom I had mentioned already as the possible exemption to my statement) is simply poor since Finley only played 3 games and Tropp played 13. Funny thing, a better comparison would be Kassian who has 1 more point than Ennis over the same number of games on the ice. That being said, you honestly mention Ennis or even Myers in comparison to Crosby? Really? I’m sorry, Malkin isn’t all that much better than Vanek in my opinion. He only has 4 more points on a team with a much better record (although I will grant you that he’s played a few less games)… it’s still close enough to not explain the difference between the 2 teams records. My point wasn’t who has better players, my point was that Ruff never used that excuse in the past… but now suddenly he has begun to do so. In the past, we lost Vanek and Miller both for longer stretches and his mantra was “no time to worry about that… just buckle down and compete”. Where is that guy this year? That doesn’t mean I want him fired… it means, I want that coach back behind our team’s bench! I want him to succeed, not leave. Do an analysis about that… I’ll take the gutsy players who win with poor stats any day over the high stat players who lose (I’ve had my taste of Miro Satan already thank you very much). Also, if your analysis should provide Ruff (and Regier, for that matter) a “don’t blame me card” then why doesn’t that same type of analysis work to the benefit of players who have done great in years past, but no longer perform at some point in their careers? In the world of modern sports (and I’m sure if you have the pleasure of asking either Ruff or Regier this exact same question they would give this same answer)… it is a world of “what have you done for me lately?” Again, I’m not saying that is right or wrong… but it is reality, nonetheless. I want Ruff to succeed and I want Regier to continue to find more motivated players who want to pay the price to win in years when their contracts do not expire (Stafford). Regier has to learn to let go sometimes and I’m still hoping that he will at some point. Happy Holidays.
DC Chocolate City!
Bottomline...
This team isn’t losing because of the injuries (they were losing before Myers and Ennis and whomever else you want to claim is so significant went down)… they’re losing because for some 20-minute window of every game the players on the ice are playing no harder than the guys injured in the press box. They lose just about every game during 1 period of uninspired hockey. That is due to the parity in the NHL and the fact that some of those players have gotten just a little too comfortable with their situation on this roster. Whom that falls on isn’t for me to say, but to expect a different result without a different action is what many claim to be the definition of insanity. All I think most Sabres fans expect is an all out effort from whomever plays from start to finish… oh, and that may lead to a few more happy endings along the way, as well.
DC Chocolate City!
2nd Tier
There are currently 11 NHL coaches with better career win percentages than Ruff. So, if you were to break the NHL into 3 tiers, that would statistically put Ruff near the top of the 2nd tier of NHL coaches. All but one (Boucher) of those coaches have been fired at some point in their careers. I don’t want Ruff fired, just saying there can be statistical arguments to support either position. I just want Ruff the coach who inspired the less talented teams to succeed over his career here to return.
DC Chocolate City!
Using wins to judge a coach is the worst form of result-oriented analysis as it completely ignores process.
See, constructive criticism.
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Constructive criticism?
You didn’t bring up any issues with my methodology or the findings. All you did was go off on tangents and call what I wrote a “waste the time” because I’m not the owner.
And I love Vanek, but he’s not the player Malkin is. Malkin has two 100-point seasons to his name; Vanek has zero. Malkin has more points than he has games played; Vanek has 80 less points than games played. They have the same Points Shares number despite Vanek having over 100 more career games played. Or is this going to get excused away with a “its a free country” line?
I’ll take the gutsy players who win with poor stats any day over the high stat players who lose
It takes goals to win, not “guts”.
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Shrek or Ogre... or whatever
I don’t even know what we’re arguing about?! I said I agreed that Ruff was a good coach. All I said that apparently set you off was that I didn’t see what the big deal was about your post. A bunch of people on here were acting like you uncovered some sort of great mystery with your charts. All I basically asked was “what is the big deal about your post?” Anyone who has followed the Sabres knows they’ve had more successful seasons than not under Ruff (and Regier has had his ups and downs… personally I like Regier in his early years better – getting Dumont, Gilmour, Heinze, Briere, Drury a heck of a lot better than the guys he’s acquired in recent memory – with jury still being out on the added pieces this offseason). Listen, my issue was not with your stats and whatnot. It was more like, when did stating what should be obvious become such a huge ordeal? Maybe I just follow statistical trends more than the average fan and take my own knowledge for granted. I just didn’t understand all the hoopla over your post, no offense. I’m debating your opinions on people, we can both agree and disagree on each topic around the team all day and night long and neither of us will convince the other. For example, I’ll take Vanek any day with the numbers he’s put up in less average ice time and a significantly weaker supporting cast than Malkin any day. Malkin goes stretches disappearing in his career while in Sid’s shadow and then he explodes when he’s the main dish again. That’s fine. But even when they’ve both been healthy over the years, the Pens have had better teams than the Sabres… hence them being Champs! Which returns to a point that you picked with me, numbers don’t tell the whole story… I’m sorry. If it was that easy, they wouldn’t play the games and Vegas would always come out on top. There is more to competing than simply padding a stat sheet. You can disagree with me, but I played competitively through college (and worked in the minor leagues) and I’ve seen great talents wasted on those pursuing stats over team goals… and I’ve seen others greatly overachieve by playing their parts perfectly. It’s a huge reason for why I strongly prefer team sports over individual sports like golf and tennis. That is just my personal opinion and experience, I don’t care if you agree or disagree… and I mean that in a nice way, not argumentively. At the end of day, I think we can all agree as fans of the Sabres… we just want them to start winning… whether it’s with the current roster and/or coaching and management staff or not. That is all any of us really want, right?
DC Chocolate City!
by djc1877 on Jan 8, 2012 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
.
when did stating what should be obvious become such a huge ordeal?
When you have a growing number of people who obviously consider Ruff to be part of the problem. This post was in response to the people who bemoan Ruff every chance they get. It’s one thing just to think they’re wrong; it’s another to lay out the evidence as to why they’re wrong.
numbers don’t tell the whole story… I’m sorry. If it was that easy, they wouldn’t play the games and Vegas would always come out on top.
Sigh. Guts don’t win you games. Goals do.
There is more to competing than simply padding a stat sheet.Double sigh. And here I thought when a player scored a goal it counted for his team. I guess some goals just by pass that and go right to the players stat sheet.
I played competitively through collegeWell I guess that makes you an authority then.
Oh, wait! so did I!
I think we can all agree as fans of the Sabres… we just want them to start winning…And the best way for them to do that is probably to keep the very good coach that they have – which is what the post is about.
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As I previously mentioned:
If he’s good enough for Mike Babcock and team Canada (twice!) then he’s good enough for me.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Matt Ellis."
Babcock and Ruff are close friends
Do you think that entered into Team Canada decision?
And total BS
Just because Ruff is friends with Babcock implies nothing. Ruff’s system is nothing like Babcock’s puck possession system. He was selected to Team Canada by Babcock along with Lemaire to provide perspective (kind of a thick-tank philosophy). Fact is, Ruff is losing this team. So I guess we trade everyone away and build around Lindy (while he laughs behind the bench while his team is losing yet again). It doesn’t matter if they get more defensemen, he will just sit them and play the defenseless Gragnani and Sekera! Better yet up front he will play Matt “hands of stone” Ellis instead of someone who will actually score. You guys can remind me of this post when we win the Cup! Yeah right.
.
Fact is, Ruff is losing this team.
Explain to me how this is a fact. You have no way of knowing that unless you are in the room and in the players heads. You just have an opinion and look to find things that “support” it and ignore everything else. Do you even know what the word “fact” means?
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Not picking another argument, but...
How do you know what he’s saying isn’t a fact either? Do you play on this team? Your stats only support your personal opinion. You just really have a hard time accepting that others have an opinion, as well… unless we import a bunch of charts to support it, I suppose? Sorry for the sarcasm, but I just don’t like how you’re trying to bully people on here who differ in opinion from you. That, and I’m more of a grinder myself… I don’t back down from a good scrap on the ice (especially while defending a teammate) and won’t in these message boards either. :)
DC Chocolate City!
.
How do you know what he’s saying isn’t a fact either?
I don’t. But neither can he. That’s why I look to things that are facts – like things that are in the post.
Your stats only support your personal opinion.So now having an opinion, searching for proof if that opinion is right or wrong, finding that the evidence says said opinion is right, is bad?
You just really have a hard time accepting that others have an opinion, as well… unless we import a bunch of charts to support it, I suppose?No, it doesn’t have to be charts. But give me something more than pure conjuncture to support your opinion if you are going to treat it as fact.
I just don’t like how you’re trying to bully people on here who differ in opinion from youI don’t “bully” people who simply have a different opinion. However, if you claim something as fact, when it is based on nothing and does’t follow simple rules of logic, don’t expect it to go unchallenged.
I’m more of a grinder myselfNow your “gutz > skillz” stuff makes more sense…
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Hats off on your research!
Nice job of trying to crunch the numbers and be objective! Too many intangibles. My trend analysis says he is getting worse with age!
what trend analysis was that? I must have missed that post….
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
by willgarr15 on Jan 2, 2012 12:54 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Pro players and coaches around the league agree that
STATS are for losers. This better describes Lindy
conjecture, rumors, speculation
contempt, subjectivity, attention-seeking trolls
how dare you post statistical nonsense on MY internet, you’re impinging on my ignorance. please don’t open my eyes or my mind, I’d love to stick by my false beliefs as I vomit my baseless opinions backed only by unverifiable references and lies i just made up on the spot. get out of my internets, get out of my head, swine
by lassathrax on Jan 2, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
mobile rec
"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup" - Terry Pegula
by willgarr15 on Jan 2, 2012 5:16 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
NO! Mobile FLAG! lol
"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."
by FloridaBuffalo on Jan 2, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
Good post, but as others have seen, and without rehashing previous disagreements, stats only tell part of the story.
Lindy is a great coach, but I think you’ve been too harsh on those saying that the team seems uninspired. You want to know why the arena has been quiet this year? It’s because the Sabres are playing dull fucking hockey.
Is Lindy to blame? Not really. But I think it’s a mistake to pigeonhole him as a defensive coach who has gotten more offensive. I don’t think he’s actually changed all that much, and I don’t think it’s all the unique in the NHL. Ruff’s philosophy has basically been forecheck hard, back check hard throughout his tenure as Sabres coach. It just seems now that the personnel on the team isn’t always interested in doing so, and it isn’t the first time that criticism has been leveled. They have the potential and talent to be as good an offensive team as there is in the league but they are not that team yet. They may be in time and I completely agree that it’s stupid to pass judgment on the moves that were made or Ruff’s ability to manage the new roster yet, but they still are in the midst of this season and it isn’t going well. Looking at the stats you provided bears this out. 2.67 goals for is one of their poorest numbers during Ruff’s tenure. They have gone far in the playoffs when they’ve had that output, but they also had one of the best goals against in the league (largely because of Hasek). If the goals against stay where they are, it will be the worst year in Ruff’s tenure. While Ruff’s career has been good, there is no question that this is shaping up to be one of his bad years, and this time, there’s no external reason like a bankruptcy to explain it. There are a lot of ways the season can turn around: Miller can start playing lights out, the forwards can find their groove and start scoring more, but it has to happen soon or else bye bye playoffs.
There is no doubt that this year has been one of the worst - if not the worst - in Ruff's career as far as the team playing up to its perceived talent level.
I don’t think anyone really is going to argue that. Some want point to some a multitude of reasosn for why the team is playing so poorly (which could indeed included some failures by Ruff) instead of just dumping it all on Ruff’s lap and saying “See! I told you he was terrible!” while ignoring his long history of successes. Could someone make an argument that Ruff is part of the problem or at least not heping? Sure, I guess. Although I would disagree if it moved beyond some of his line pairings or things of that nature, that’s not my (and many others’) issue with the “blame Ruff” crowd. My issue is the way they get to that conclusion. In no way, shape, or form has any one of “them” actually presented a logically coherent and sound argument for wanting Ruff removed. Once someone does – not to mention suggest a replacement beyond “some AHL coach like Dan Bylsma” – they shouldn’t expect our reactions to their comments to change.
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There really isn’t anyone out there – but people look at Bylsma or Dineen or even Claude Noel and think you could just plug in an AHL coach and hope for the best. I don’t think that is what will be done.
I have no idea what will fix the Sabres, but I’d rather shed players than Ruff and Regier. From what Black and Pegula have said, it sounds like they agree.
It's not the Coach!!
They are riddled with injuries on N.H.L. & A.H.L. teams .That’s not a coaching issue it’s a personelle issue and you can’t just go and replace seven players due to contractual obligations and cap space .So sit back relax and enjoy the show as they heal some players and get better and better !!! GO SABRES!!!!!!
by Ottawa sabres on Jan 3, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry
Winning CUPS is success. Regier and Ruff will never be successful here in Buffalo.We and they need a change
So Hasek was a failure in his time in Buffalo?
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Lots of 'maybe' meaningful statistics
Nice work on gathering all this data. My only problem is that you only looked at averages. Top 12 sounds good at first… but what’s the gap to become elite? Some variance charts and standard deviation plots are necessary to really validate this data.
*charts are mad confusing too
My other question would be to look into how the sabres stack up once they get to the playoffs. It might just me being a fan combined with them eventually loosing every playoff appearance that makes me feel like they don’t score goals when it really counts. But it seems like they are always lacking the top stars or line for that matter to beat the Zdeno Charas/Chris Pronger led defences.
I’m expecting (hoping/praying) for the Sabres to be a dominant team in the second half of the season. There were a lot of new free agent pick ups combined with youth combined with injuries. All of which I feel are making it a more painful process for the team to really gel and play to its’ potential.
No question there is a lot more I could have done.
For instance I thought very hard about going through each of the 30 teams and doing their 13-year Goals/For and Goals/Against averages (in addition to their point averages and so forth) and using that to judge where the Sabres rank. However, that’s a crap-ton of work so instead I used an aggregate average. The margin of error is larger, but it should still give us a decent idea.
As to your inquiry about the playoffs, well, analyzing playoff production is very tricky because by definition, you’re talking about small samples. 28 games at most. You couldn’t come to any definitive conclusion even with perfect data.
Is there anything in particular that’s giving you a problem with the charts? Is it the data chart or the graphs?
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Again, great article Ogre.
I am not sure variance or std. deviation calculations would help with the data set since we only have 14 data points. This could be done if we analyze every team in the past 14 years, but no other team has had a single coach over that period of time. If that was done, we would have to compare Ruff to other team’s who have made multiple coaching changes…which is interesting within itself. That type of analysis could maybe show that us having Ruff could be better or worse when compared to teams who have made multiple coaching changes. But again, that is still a “crap-ton” of work.
For the amount of data Ogre dealt with, I think averages are acceptable in at least showing that there is a trend between Goals For and Goals Against Rankings when compared to a teams placement in the conference. Of course the coefficient of determination (R^2) would be poor for that data above, but that could improve with a larger data set as you said. I know the academic community finds initial results for papers that present a trend as acceptable, so I would portray this analysis as meaningful.
Overall, it is his free time he divulged into the creation of this article, and for that, I thank you Ogre. I thought your 2×2 Game Theory Payoff Matrix was also quite cool to see.
"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula
After the Winnipeg game
It’s clear it’s time for Lindy to go. He is part of the problem not the solution. The team struggles for offensive production and what happens. They send Kassian back down when Leino comes back. The Leino, Adam, Kassian showed some chemistry and soon as Leino gets back he sends Kassian down! I don’t get it, what is he trying to do. Look Sabres fans, you can’t have Ellis, McCormick, Kaleta, Gaustad playing forward at the same time. This is why you don’t have secondary scoring, geez louise. The smartest thing Ruff did all year was put Leopold back with (his old partner form Calgary) Regehr and put McNabb with Myers.
Ruff doesn't demote players.
He can make recommendations and requests, but he doesn’t make moves.
That’s a decent point about Ellis, Goose, etc., but Kassian’s play has slipped some. I think he could use more time in the AHL.
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Darcy was required to send Kassian back down, or Matt Ellis, and if he sent Ellis down we couldn’t recall him.
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"Ville Leino may stink but he’s still way better than Matt Ellis."
we are looking at 5 yrs
without getting into the playoffs (3) or not getting past the 1st round (2).
not exactly a great performance by any head coach in the NHL.
there is a reason why ruff has the longest tenure of any nhl coach, and
it is not his performance.
it is because we tolerate mediocrity for too long.
but the good news should be clear
either it is the players they have assembled, or it is ruff.
much easier to change coaches than blow up the team.
time for lindy to move on. got to find out what a different coach
can do with these guys…
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