Simple Projections (Pt. 2 of 5)

by Calvin on Dec 21, 2011 8:15 PM EST in Crunching Numbers

After last night's game at Ottawa, the Buffalo Sabres are about 2/5th of the way through the 82 game season. Things have changed drastically since the 1/5th mark on 11/17/11, but of course, you already know that. Here again are the projections for the team - notice that the squad size has jumped from 21 players to 30 (not including goalies).

As with any arithmetic progressions, this doesn't account for players who are currently injured and assumes from this point on everyone will play the rest of the games.

If you click back to the previous article, there has been a drop off in points performance across the board.

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	+/-	PIM	Shots
Thomas Vanek	43	45	88	8	80	260
Jason Pominville	25	63	88	-8	15	230
Derek Roy	18	35	53	-15	70	190
Luke Adam	25	25	50	-3	30	148
Drew Stafford	15	28	43	-8	75	205
Christian Ehrhoff	5	35	40	-23	53	195
Nathan Gerbe	8	23	31	10	35	130
Jordan Leopold	15	13	28	-3	15	85
Ville Leino	8	18	26	-18	10	70
Marc-Andre Gragnani	3	20	23	28	25	58
Andrej Sekera	5	15	20	5	30	93
Brad Boyes	5	15	20	0	0	98
Paul Gaustad	5	13	18	8	123	88
Zack Kassian	8	8	16	-3	28	33
Tyler Myers	5	10	15	-10	25	70
Tyler Ennis	8	5	13	0	5	75
Paul Szczechura	3	8	11	0	10	25
Jochen Hecht	8	0	8	10	5	35
Matt Ellis	3	5	8	-10	58	83
Patrick Kaleta	5	0	5	-8	85	53
Corey Tropp	3	3	6	-10	28	20
Cody McCormick	0	5	5	-15	73	55
Robyn Regehr	0	5	5	-10	65	50
T.J. Brennan	3	0	3	0	5	8
Mike Weber	0	0	0	-20	23	10
Marcus Foligno	0	0	0	-3	0	3
Colin Stuart	0	0	0	-8	0	0
Derek Whitmore	0	0	0	0	0	5
Joe Finley	0	0	0	-3	5	3
Brayden McNabb	0	0	0	-8	5	30

Among the exceptions, Ville Leino has been getting better, and this is shown here. Tyler Ennis had no points previous to his injury and he has improved as well. Among the d-men, Jordan Leopold has improved and Andrej Sekera has stayed the same.

It doesn't get better when you look at team stats either.

Season	GF	GA	Pts
2009-10	231	201	100
2010-11	240	228	96
2011-12	225	245	88

The cutoffs for the playoffs was 88pts two years ago, and 93pts last year. Currently the Sabres stand tenth in the conference, and at this rate, will struggle to make it to the playoffs.

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Just an FYI

In your table where it says “Against” where is should say “Assists”.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Dec 21, 2011 11:34 PM EST reply actions

And Kass

Is projected at 8g and 8a for 15 points. When I look at all those minus projections and the current goal differential for the Sabres it makes me a little sick. Of course having to play Chewie as our 1st line C kind of illuminates several organizational issues that led to all those minus numbers….but I digress! We’ve been a 2nd half team before and can be again this year with players getting healthy and returning to form. Go Sabres!

by buffaloparks on Dec 22, 2011 2:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

And...

Gerbe, Leino, Chewie and Tropp… Seems like you’re projecting G, A, and Points separately. Not trying to be critical though, love your articles!

by buffaloparks on Dec 22, 2011 2:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Edited

Thanks guys, I didn’t do a very good job of proofreading!

Smile.. tomorrow will be worse.

by Calvin on Dec 22, 2011 5:18 AM EST reply actions

Nice table. but.............

I’m too disgusted with this “team” to even comment.

by Geolover on Dec 22, 2011 8:57 AM EST reply actions

It was not fun putting it together either

Smile.. tomorrow will be worse.

by Calvin on Dec 22, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

wish you would be too disgusted to not post in every topic.

"If we needed any more motivation to win a Cup sooner than later, we've got one now," Black said. "I really want to listen to the game that RJ calls when he finally gets to shout out, 'Buffalo wins the Stanley Cup.'"
"Do it or Die Trying."

by FloridaBuffalo on Dec 22, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Someone should print copies of this and put them on Roy’s and Stafford’s lockers. And then take their A’s away. they can have them back when they catch up to the two guys at the top.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Dec 22, 2011 11:57 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

What kills me is Paul Gausted

I want to like him. He’s a tough hard nosed player and he’s clearly a team leader.

But he makes a case for being the least productive forward on the team (not including D-men or Matt Ellis.

He doesn’t score, he doesn’t know how to throw a body check, he rarely fights.

His biggest plus is that he wins the majority of his faceoffs. Which is nice, especially late in a game.

But outside of needing to win a draw, I don’t see how this guy finds a way onto the team next year (barring injuries).

K-1 Level Predictions Team

by Fedorable on Dec 22, 2011 2:44 PM EST reply actions

Gaustad is the most expendable member of the core to me. He’s stuck around because of his hustle and faceoff ability, but he’s never been that great a skater or fighter really. He’s a good fourth line Center, but if he’s ever asked to do anything beyond that (and he frequently is) it never really works out. For me it would boil down to whether or not we would want him or McCormick. I could make a case for either.

by Philaster on Dec 22, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

I like Goose, he’s probably a better defensive player than people give him credit for. It’s not really his fault if he’s asked to contribute more offensively than he’s capable of.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Dec 22, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

I hear ya

Goose is a fourth line C plain and simple. He also plays the PK which I think he does well, and is an underrated trait. Unfortunately he’s been forced up the charts thanks to….ding ding ding! Yup, you guessed it! Injuries! When left to provide what he does well (face offs, PK, toughness, leadership) I really like the Goose. It’s just that beyond that he’s hit his ceiling. He might be a good candidate for a contender to trade with at the deadline because of what he brings. Of course if we are contending he goes nowhere.

by buffaloparks on Dec 22, 2011 6:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

.

he doesn’t know how to throw a body check

John-Michael Liles dissagrees.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place

by Ogre39666 on Dec 23, 2011 4:17 AM EST up reply actions

The Goose was loose last night.. and I’d rather have his limited skill – unlimited heart combo than the tons of skill – take shifts off combo (here’s looking at you Mr. Drew ‘Guitar Hero’ Stafford)

Smile.. tomorrow will be worse.

by Calvin on Dec 23, 2011 6:43 AM EST up reply actions

Part 5

Are you going to “project” point totals at the end of the season? In other words, shouldn’t this only be a 4-part series?

by Gareth Braxton on Dec 23, 2011 11:18 AM EST reply actions

Dang!

You’re right. Completely did not think that through now did I?!

Maybe for Part 5 I’ll just track the trend going through the 4 parts until what they finally end the season with. At current rate, sloping downwards from left to right for most of the players.

Thanks for catching that!

Smile.. tomorrow will be worse.

by Calvin on Dec 23, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions