Simple Projections (Pt. 2 of 5)

After last night's game at Ottawa, the Buffalo Sabres are about 2/5th of the way through the 82 game season. Things have changed drastically since the 1/5th mark on 11/17/11, but of course, you already know that. Here again are the projections for the team - notice that the squad size has jumped from 21 players to 30 (not including goalies).

As with any arithmetic progressions, this doesn't account for players who are currently injured and assumes from this point on everyone will play the rest of the games.

If you click back to the previous article, there has been a drop off in points performance across the board.

Player

Goals

Assists

Points

+/-

PIM

Shots

Thomas Vanek

43

45

88

8

80

260

Jason Pominville

25

63

88

-8

15

230

Derek Roy

18

35

53

-15

70

190

Luke Adam

25

25

50

-3

30

148

Drew Stafford

15

28

43

-8

75

205

Christian Ehrhoff

5

35

40

-23

53

195

Nathan Gerbe

8

23

31

10

35

130

Jordan Leopold

15

13

28

-3

15

85

Ville Leino

8

18

26

-18

10

70

Marc-Andre Gragnani

3

20

23

28

25

58

Andrej Sekera

5

15

20

5

30

93

Brad Boyes

5

15

20

0

0

98

Paul Gaustad

5

13

18

8

123

88

Zack Kassian

8

8

16

-3

28

33

Tyler Myers

5

10

15

-10

25

70

Tyler Ennis

8

5

13

0

5

75

Paul Szczechura

3

8

11

0

10

25

Jochen Hecht

8

0

8

10

5

35

Matt Ellis

3

5

8

-10

58

83

Patrick Kaleta

5

0

5

-8

85

53

Corey Tropp

3

3

6

-10

28

20

Cody McCormick

0

5

5

-15

73

55

Robyn Regehr

0

5

5

-10

65

50

T.J. Brennan

3

0

3

0

5

8

Mike Weber

0

0

0

-20

23

10

Marcus Foligno

0

0

0

-3

0

3

Colin Stuart

0

0

0

-8

0

0

Derek Whitmore

0

0

0

0

0

5

Joe Finley

0

0

0

-3

5

3

Brayden McNabb

0

0

0

-8

5

30

Among the exceptions, Ville Leino has been getting better, and this is shown here. Tyler Ennis had no points previous to his injury and he has improved as well. Among the d-men, Jordan Leopold has improved and Andrej Sekera has stayed the same.

It doesn't get better when you look at team stats either.

Season

GF

GA

Pts

2009-10

231

201

100

2010-11

240

228

96

2011-12

225

245

88

The cutoffs for the playoffs was 88pts two years ago, and 93pts last year. Currently the Sabres stand tenth in the conference, and at this rate, will struggle to make it to the playoffs.

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