The 40 Million Dollar Question

by Calvin on Nov 4, 2011 9:00 AM EDT

Eleven games into the season, and your Buffalo Sabres are a middling 6-5-0. Last season on this date while they were struggling to a 3-8-2 record, many would have settled for the six wins they have so far. However, 2011-12 is not just any season for the Sabres, especially with all the hype and expectations that have been ushered in with the Pegula ownership.

Some of the big talking points have been discussed by riverssyr in The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly earlier in the week. With the team taking their fourth loss in five games against the Flyers Wednesday night, there are plenty of gripes. The presence (or not) of a goaltending controversy between Ryan Miller and Jhonas Enroth. The apparent mismatch between the Sabres and Ville Leino. The better quality ice at home proving to be no advantage for the Sabres. The failure to close out games by giving up goals late in the game.

But what of defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, the prized free-agent acquisition of the summer, scheduled to make a massive $10 million this year (including bonuses), part of a ten-year, forty million remuneration package?

More after the jump.

Ehrhoff has been a contradiction so far. Consider that Shea Weber signed a $7.5 million contract to make him the highest paid d-man in the league. While the average cap hit for Ehrhoff balances out to a reasonable $4 million per year, he has not been elite. The expectation from an all-world d-man is that he is responsible in his own zone, brings leadership and grit to the ice as well as providing offense and point both at even-strength and on the power play.

His stat line through eleven games reads 1G and 6A with a +/- of minus 6. Ehrhoff leads all Sabres in time on ice, averaging 24:22 per game, testament to the high regard Lindy Ruff has in him, but the -6 is a big blot on his record. He has a cannon for a shot, and often for the Vancouver Canucks his missiles from right point found their way through to register as goals. In Buffalo though, he has only mustered 20 shots on goal so far, with his solitary goal coming from a fluky deflection for an empty netter. This has even resulted in his demotion to the second PP unit. Before the season started Sabres fans had powerplay visions of Ehrhoff winding up and firing from the blue line with Thomas Vanek screening goalies and cleaning up rebounds. That hasn't materialized.

To compare with the other highest earning d-men this season, Zdeno Chara 1G & 5A, +3, 24:55; Chris Pronger 1G & 6A, +2, 21:02; Dion Phaneuf 2G & 9A, +8, 26:38; Duncan Keith 0G & 6A, +3, 24:57; Brian Campbell 0G & 11A, -2, 26:59; and James Wisniewski 0G & 4A, +2, 28:20. Sheldon Souray is now looking like a steal at just $1.65 million with his 3G & 5A, +8; 20:45.

So, first - should we temper our expectations of Ehrhoff? At current pace he will match his 50-point season from last year. Ehrhoff is a good puckmover coming out of the defensive zone. He will remain a force to be reckoned with in his forays into the offensive zone. However he might not be the clutch d-man we need when trying to hold the lead late in games nor the be person we need on ice to pump up the team when some leadership is required.

Next - how can Ruff make Ehrhoff better? He looks now more like the -12 Sharks player from '08-09 than the +36 Canucks d-man from '09-10. No doubt he will never be the stay-at-home half of any defensive pair, but are his skills best utilized when partnered with Jordan Leopold? How about if he is paired up with Robyn Regehr, who has lived up to his hard-hitting, shot-blocking reputation so far? Also, would Ruff consider going the full-on offensive route by pairing him up with Tyler Myers or even Andrej Sekera, who appears to have matured quite a bit this season? Let's hear your thoughts.

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Cool Your Jets!

I think as Sabres fans we were spoiled by the fast start, and obviously things have come back down to earth for our Sabres. Hopefully these guys don’t press, especially Ehrhoff, and I think he will be fine. Plus who cares about how much we pay to get top line players. This for once is not a huge concern. (Big Ups Pegulasaurus). I expected some growing pains, but I won’t lie cause I was def stoked after the preseason and the 4-1 start. I think we will all feel better after our boys go back on a warpath and win back to back games this weekend! Sabres on a Warpath!!

by JohnnyO10 on Nov 4, 2011 10:36 AM EDT reply actions

yessir

We’re multiple games ahead of last years pace, not concerned there. Ehrhoff looks like he’s just a part of the majority of the players who are gripping the stick a little tight and once he gets back on track things will start to get wild. I do however think that he should be on the 1st PP opposite of Myers, that would probably be the one thing Lindy can do for him.

This kid can skate and handle and let it go. When you see him get a lane and start flying through the neutral zone, it really is impressive.

by VFN FTW on Nov 4, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

smart man

by JohnnyO10 on Nov 4, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed!

When I see Myers make a rush up the ice, there is still an element of ungainliness, ‘baby-giraffe-finding-its-legs’ feel to it.. but when Ehrhoff takes it and starts moving, wow, he has jets and a cannon to match!

by Calvin on Nov 4, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Pegula had a 3 year plan.

Year one, we are undoubtedly improved. Our record is better than last year’s, our shortcomings are more readily fixable this year, and our team has more potential than last year. If this team needs another year or two of continued improvement before they are a cup favorite, then so be it. We all want them to win it now, and I think they do too, but we have to keep the big picture in mind if they struggle to mesh in the beginning. These guys have long-term contracts and will have plenty of time to find the right chemistry and ways to win consistently. IMO the Sabres have always been and maybe always will be a streaky team. Win 5, lose 5. It always amazes me to see the fans’ collective bipolar mood swings. On a winning streak it’s plan the parade, on a losing streak the sky is falling. Lindy preaches even keel, it will get us into the playoffs to keep the eye on the bigger picture. From there, it’s all about matchups, injuries, and heart. But until then, it’s about composure, effort, and discipline.

by lassathrax on Nov 4, 2011 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

But, most fortunately, it is no longer about money and ownership. Who cares if players aren’t living up to their contract price, they have time to find their stride in such long-term deals, and we all know these players have the skill set and (perhaps with the exception of Leino) the track record to put our trust in them.

by lassathrax on Nov 4, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

love the bipolar fans

first one’s to boo Miller after a bad start are the first one’s to buy a jersey to wear out to a bar and tell anyone who will listen (and even those who wont) that he’s the best in the world after a winning streak is put together and VS has a commercial with him making a circus act save….

by VFN FTW on Nov 4, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

It will be very hard to keep the Buffalo fans’ expectations low, even though this is only Year One of the plan. The only thing I can say is that the current adversity is good, it’ll toughen the team.. ask the Bills!

by Calvin on Nov 4, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Ehrhoff

I’ve been very unimpressed by him so far this year.

by Binthet on Nov 4, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

I do not think +/- is a good comparison tool since it is more attributed to all six players playing on the ice instead of the single player you are examining. Ehrhoff’s +/- is not very “good” so far this season, but is that all his fault? Or has it been his line mates that may have contributed to him having a poor +/-? One stat that is really good in examining this is defensive games versus threshold (DGVT), yet it would not be very accurate now since we have only played 11 games.

As for his defensive pairing, he has been paired with both offensive (Edler) and defensive (Bieksa) defenseman over the past two years in Vancouver (see Dobber Hockey for this info on Line Combos). To be honest, I think he would be fine with either type of pairing as long as we allow him to play the way that is best for him. Overall, it is still early, so I am not too worried about any player’s current season start.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Nov 4, 2011 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

While the +/- is not the most accurate reflection of defensive performance, it is telling that Ehrhoff is -6 while his regular partner Jordan Leopold is +1. Even if we take off the two shorties given up against the Canes, that still leaves him at -4.

I’m of the school of thought that Ruff keeps Ehrhoff off the ice in clutch situations until he settles in some more, and instead give that ice time to Sekera and Leopold who have been markedly better.

by Calvin on Nov 4, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Good points...

And I realize my statement is not really a popular one….but it is something I like to point out. I would check the actual line combos, but Dobber Hockey makes you pay for this information now…so I can’t do that until I find 10 free dollars. Another site that can be used is www.leftwinglock.com, where it shows that Leopold has been the most regular partner with Ehrhoff, with Sekera being second and Regehr third.

I think a good stat that would help your point is examining his quality of competition and teammates when he has been on the ice. According to Behind the Net, Ehrhoff is fourth highest in his quality of competition while being number one in his quality of teammates for this season. In other words, he usually gets the best teammates to play with on the ice while seeing the fourth best competition among the Sabres defensemen. So in reality, it would make sense if he had a better +/- since he plays on the ice with the best our team has to offer.

Then again, the team save percentage on the ice is the worst among regularly playing defensemen on the team when Ehrhoff is playing(.912 SV% when Ehrhoff is on the ice)…..which can definitely contribute to Ehrhoff’s plus/minus score. Anyways, I shouldn’t argue on both sides of the discussion, but I do enjoy the different viewpoints on the subject.

"We’re gonna win the Stanley Cup. Then, you know what, we’re gonna win it again,"
-Terry Pegula

by bgred105 on Nov 4, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the useful links as well as both the perspectives you raised. Looking forward to more discussions as the season goes on.

by Calvin on Nov 5, 2011 5:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

+/- is absolutely Ehrhoff's fault

If you watch the games, he gets out of position a lot and lets guys by him. I’m pretty sure he also turns the puck over more than any other defenseman we have (including Myers). Or at least his turnovers seem more likely to generate scoring chances.

At any rate, the point is that the +/- is not just a number for Ehrhoff. It reflects his play on the ice.

The guy definitely has serious talent. He’s probably our best defensive skater (a high compliment with Sekera on the team), he has the best shot, and he has creative vision for how offensive plays will develop. I think his troubles are just chemistry and compatibility. I would be serious $$$ that the second half of the season is better than the first for Ehrhoff.

by Munchausen on Nov 4, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d be in on that bet too, once he adapts better to the system and gets more familiar with the players here.

by Calvin on Nov 5, 2011 5:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Erhoff might be going through the same funk that the Bruins and Canucks are going through. With that said, maybe a drop in minutes wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for now.

by Frank Reich Revolution on Nov 4, 2011 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

The Big Moment

I think Ehrhoff is missing his first “Sabres Moment” – a big goal or something to really endear him to the fans. It seems so far that he’s just been kind of “there”.

follow me @buffaloexplorer

by riverssyr on Nov 4, 2011 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

Regehr and Leino are still waiting for their Sabres moments too

by Calvin on Nov 5, 2011 6:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I am much more concerned about myers

Ehrhoff will improve and contribute much more as the season progresses. My concern is the lack of attention to detail by Myers. He looks confused and doesn’t seem to know what to do with puck when gets it. His stick handling really makes me nervous.

Quite frankly, I think both Ehrhoff and Myers as well as the rest of the team would benefit greatly if they had the right coaching team. Ruff is past his prime and continues to self-destruct with each game.

by Geolover on Nov 4, 2011 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

I think this "argment" is past its prime.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Nov 4, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

absolutely, geo!

the “argment” that " Lindy would be hired instantly if he were fired !!!" (should have done that ALL IN CAPS for emphasis)is the bromide that is past its prime (see below)
If he were dismissed, I can see a certain number of sub .500 clubs in need of stability and a new start that may try him out…but any team in the top 5 or 6 who are the almost-there-but-not-quite-a- Cup winners wouldnt sniff at a known quantity, albeit a competent one, who would comprise a lateral move at best.
That is all speculation I admit , and any sane fan wishes Lindy and Darcy the best, but why will it be different in year 13 as opposed to the previous years?
His meltdown with the line changes being tossed out before the ink dried on them is an indicator to me at least that the toolbox is getting bare.

by boonies191 on Nov 4, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

oooops!

I meant see ABOVE…

by boonies191 on Nov 4, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The Teppo factor

The addition of Teppo Numinen to the coaching staff will manifest itself in the form of more steady defensive performances as the season goes on.

by Calvin on Nov 5, 2011 6:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

.

At current pace he will match his 50-point season from last year

So what’s the problem?

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Nov 4, 2011 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

As a d-man, his first responsibility is to stop giving up goals. The 50 point season after that is a bonus.

by Calvin on Nov 5, 2011 6:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

His Positioning...

…Is my only complaint. 7 points through 11 games means hes on pace for 50 on the year. I think any fan would love to see that. James Patrick needs to help him a little bit the positioning and improve the +/-. Yes we all have high expectations for him, but take out the +/- and he would be having a great start.

by abartz75 on Nov 4, 2011 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

Erhoff suffers from DKD

Dimitri Kalinin Disorder*

.
*An affliction characterized by the propensity to stand around and watch while an opposing player handles the puck in your end or behind your goal. Named for a former Buffalo Sabres defenseman with the same malady

"If You Ain't a Bill I Don't Give a Fxck Bout Ya!! Most Disrespected Team in NFL! I Always feel Disrespected! I'm All In!" -- Steve Johnson

by go_buff on Nov 4, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions