Simple Projections (Pt. 1 of 5)

As tempting as it is to write about the whole embarrassing fallout since the Miller-Lucic episode in Boston, this piece will steer clear of it and attempt to focus on the fact that we are about 1/5th of the way through the season. The statistics mentioned here are through till 11/15, and don't take into consideration the Devils game. Averaging out the projected stats after 16 games (after the Bruins) and 17 games (after the Canadiens), we get what the approximate arithmetic projection would be for 82 games.

The disclaimer here of course is that this is purely mathematical, this kind of forecasting does not take into account injuries, players' form, or a hundred other variables, but does give one a possible idea of trends and what we might be looking at come the end of the regular season. It is expected the extremities in either direction even out over the duration of the season.

Keep it here for the projected data after the jump, and apologies for the length of the post.

Player

Goals

Assists

Points

+/-

PIM

Shots

Thomas Vanek

55

50

105

25

85

288

Jason Pominville

33

70

103

10

10

270

Derek Roy

28

40

68

-5

35

183

Luke Adam

25

38

63

-10

40

183

Drew Stafford

20

30

50

-5

80

223

Nathan Gerbe

15

30

45

28

65

193

Brad Boyes

10

25

35

10

0

133

Paul Gaustad

5

20

25

23

115

110

Ville Leino

10

10

20

-20

10

70

Corey Tropp

5

5

10

0

0

30

Matt Ellis

5

5

10

0

0

33

Cody McCormick

0

10

10

-15

120

95

Patrick Kaleta

5

0

5

-13

160

75

Tyler Ennis

0

0

0

10

10

60

Christian Ehrhoff

5

45

50

-20

30

173

Marc-Andre Gragnani

5

25

30

20

10

70

Jordan Leopold

15

10

25

15

25

85

Andrej Sekera

5

15

20

20

40

95

Tyler Myers

0

20

20

-15

50

110

Robyn Regehr

0

0

0

3

60

60

Mike Weber

0

0

0

-13

35

0

Lots of talking points and predictions out of this, starting with the offense.

The three players expected to carry the scoring load are at the top. Vanek is off to a blistering start; in previous seasons he has always finished the season strong, and if he keeps playing at the level he is he can easily emulate his 84-pt season from the '06-'07 season. Pominville is a pleasant surprise and is finally living up to the expectations that his big paycheck come with. He hasn't let the 'C' on his jersey affect his scoring and for once is actually getting the puck to the goal without the stick exploding in his hands. Roy started the season slow, but has 10 pts in the last seven games. A point-per-game pace is expected of him as well.

Adam's top-line honeymoon seems to have ended, and he has only 2 pts in the last five tilts. Let that not take away from what he has done so far, and we can fully expect him to challenge for a top six spot all year long. Stafford seems on pace for a 50-pt year, when it was hoped he would finally make the jump to 60+ points. For Gerbe, 45+ points on the year seems quite feasible, and along with his feisty play increases his value to the squad. I also expect him to lead the Sabres in +/- come the end of the season - pound-for-pound, he might be the best checking-line forward in the League.

On the bust side of the coin are three prominent names - Leino, Ennis & Boyes. While I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the great Leino-for-center debate, just 20 points on the year would be very disappointing. Ennis' injury skews the stats badly for him, and we can be sure that he will score more. The next forecast should paint a better picture. Boyes on the other hand is doing his best impression of Ales Kotalik, circa 2007 - invaluable in the shootout and good for 30-odd points.

On the defense, we seem to be getting what we expected out of Ehrhoff. Myers has had a down year so far, but broke the goal drought with a pair last night. He will need to improve quite a bit to beat the 48 points from his rookie year. Leopold has been the forgotten man on the blue line this year, but his offensive contributions should be in the 30-pt range as well. 30 points from Sekera would be a personal best, and an important contribution too. Gragnani would need to improve his play in the defensive end to ensure he gets more games, and he is also on pace for 30-odd points on the year.

Finally, another table that projects goals for, goals against and total points for the team as a whole, compared to the previous two seasons the Sabres made the playoffs.

Season

GF

GA

Pts

2009-10

231

201

100

2010-11

240

228

96

2011-12

255

205

105

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Die By The Blade

You must be a member of Die By The Blade to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Die By The Blade. You should read them.

Join Die By The Blade

You must be a member of Die By The Blade to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Die By The Blade. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker