2010-2011 Player Outlook: Tim Connolly

by David Oleksy on Aug 2, 2010 11:23 AM EDT

Sabres training camp is still over a month away, that gives us time to start projecting what this team will do in the 2010-2011 season. Over the next month, Die by the Blade will look at each Sabres player individually and project what they will do in the 2010-2011 season. We begin today with "Sabres fans whipping boy" Tim Connolly.

Sometime between his 17 game point streak in the beginning of 2010 and the end of the Sabres first round playoff exit, Tim Connolly became enemy number one for Sabres fans and the media. Connolly led the team in assists last season and finished second in points behind Derek Roy, yet Sabres fans continue to call for his removal from the team.

We have spoken at length about the trade scenarios including Connolly but with the season just about two months away, I expect he will at least start the season in a Sabres uniform. Part of the knock on Connolly is his inability to stay healthy. He has a history of concussions and a history of bad luck. He remained relatively healthy last season, playing in 73 games, but he was hampered in the playoffs by an injury that limited him at the end of the regular season.

Those same injury question marks will remain this season and for the rest of his career. Still at age 29 he has a huge offensive upside and plenty of good years of hockey left, if he remains healthy.

Tim Connolly

#19 / Center / Buffalo Sabres

Height: 6-1

Weight: 191

Born: May 07, 1981

Three Year Stats

Year	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	S	S%
09-10	73	17	48	65	10	28	7	1	5	206	8.3
08-09	48	18	29	47	12	22	5	1	5	126	14.3
07-08	48	7	33	40	4	8	3	1	3	111	6.3
3-year avg.	56	14	37	51	9	19	5	1	4	148	10

Connolly is consistently near a point-per-game over the previous three years but he has yet to play a full season. Last season he played 73 games, but he played in only 48 the previous two seasons. This is a great cause for concern because he is expected to be a top six forward and contribute at both even strength and on the power play.

Now the fun part, we are going to try to project what Tim Connolly will do in 2010-2011. I expect these projections will be way off but we can poke fun at ourselves later.

2010-2011 Statistical Projections

Year	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG
2010-2011 Projected Stats	65	14	40	54	8	16	5	1

While I still consider Connolly to be a top six forward in the NHL, I suspect that he will start his statistical decline this season. At 29 years-old, he could still provide the team with an offensive spark, but I suspect that injuries have taken their toll on TC and he will slowly decline. His potential linemates could play a huge factor in his point production as well.

Feel free to share your projections in the comment section and debate away.

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Comments

but I suspect that injuries have taken their toll on TC and he will slowly decline

That may happen, but it might also be that since he had rested a lot when he was injured, that his body as a whole doesn’t have as much wear and tear and as a result he might actually last longer.

just a thought….

and your projections seem fair, if not incredibily boringly likely :-)

We got the tools, We got the talent

by J2 on Aug 2, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

Fair predictions

Although I do think that Connolly has figured out how to avoid the big hit, although making him a much more “careful” player (to be nice). Therefore I see similar stats as last season. To be honest, playing 73 out of 82 games in a season is good for any player, let alone one who is always injured, as Connolly is. I think that the only thing that Connolly needs to do is shoot more. He is such a fantastic playmaker that he always looks to pass first, but often times he finds himself in great shooting position and passes off, and to compound it really, he has an excellent shot. I would love for Lindy to change up his usual top 2 line combos, for the sake of the entire top 6. I think that Tim has proven that he can play with almost anyone, and I feel he could really step up Vanek’s scoring if he is put between he and another player (perhaps Ennis, or Pommer). Just a thought

Fear the Grier!!!!

by willgarr15 on Aug 2, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

Pominville coming back to his 06-07 form, or close to it, would do wonders for Connolly. I cant believe hes already 29… doesnt seem like hes that old… but at the same time it seems like hes been here forever, if that makes sense.

I still would like to see Ruff put Connolly and Vanek together. I know Ive said it 100 times on here… but I really want to see what they can do. Maybe a Kennedy – Connolly – Vanek? I know Vaneks a natural LW… but seemed to play pretty well on the RW last year for the times Ruff put Kennedy at LW.

Him staying healthy (fingers crossed) and having support on the wings would be the best thing for him. Id like to see this at the end of the year:
GP: 70-75
Goals: 15-20
Assists: 45-55

Very similar to last years stats… but if they can find linemates that finish (cough Pominville cough) I think those assits could go up to closer to 55.

Old school Bills tattoo [ √ ] Old school Sabres tattoo [ √ ] ... see the avatar.
Lets Go Buffalo!!

by bflo on Aug 2, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

If I am not mistaken, Connolly will be playing in the second year of a two-year contract. I think for that reason your projections are low. I think he will make an all-out effort to impress management this season hoping to secure a long-range deal for the future.

I like the fact that Connolly is a native-born American, and I would like to see the Sabres be the first team in the NHL to be staffed with Americans only, I would like to see Connolly remain a Sabre. However, the general manager in says we need to trade him now for another proven center while we can. After this season, I don’t think his trade value will be very high.

by Geolover on Aug 2, 2010 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno. Centers, even marginal ones, seem to have rediculously overinflated values. Tim Connolly is actually a pretty good center, so he’s probably worth quite a bit.

On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Tyler Ennis: Freed from Portland!

by Ubiquitous on Aug 2, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

.

I would like to see the Sabres be the first team in the NHL to be staffed with Americans only

What difference would this make? If anything it would serve as a handicap because you’d be limiting the pool of players from which to employ.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 2, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

not to mention being incredibly closed minded and naive.

"The three important elements of hockey are: forecheck, backcheck and paycheck." - Gil Perreault

by FloridaBuffalo on Aug 3, 2010 4:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that too

although that’s par for the course with him.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 3, 2010 5:27 AM EDT up reply actions

tc

It’s time to change this whole organization: starting with Darcy and Ruff here to long team is stale, noone fears their job on this team TC should have been gone years ago. Look at all the changes they made for 2010-2011. NOT MUCH and you will not see anything but a few guys from Portland called up.

by ban him on Aug 4, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions