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Around SBN: Africa Cup Of Nations Semifinal: Black Stars Ripe For Upset?

Buffalo Sabres Individual Goal Percentages

The other day I read a great post at The Copper & Blue regarding individual players point percentage and this morning I read a similar post at the great advanced stats site Behind the Net. It made me wonder what the Sabres point percentages and goal percentages were for this season. 

After doing the research I was surprised by the wide variance in the results. The results of the experiment did not yield the expected results which prompted me to wonder about past seasons as well. I saved the past seasons for another post and I will share the results for this season.

This chart will show how each individual player fares in their time on the ice. It is interesting to find out how much a player actually contributes in comparison to other players that are on the ice at the same time.

 

 Player GP GF/OI Goals G-Pct. PTS PTS-Pct.
 Patrick Kaleta 45 18 9 50 14 77.8
 Mike Grier 55 27 9 33.3 19 70.4
 Paul Gaustad 49 28 9 32.1 16 57.1
 Jochen Hecht 64 46 14 30.4 31 67.4
 Derek Roy 62 57 17 29.8 46 80.7
 Thomas Vanek 59 65 19 29.2 41 63.1
 Drew Stafford 59 45 13 28.9 28 62.2
 Adam Mair 51 16 4 25 10 62.5
 Jason Pominville 64 67 16 23.9 43 64.2
 Tim Kennedy 60 29 6 20.7 18 62.1
 Tim Connolly 64 73 15 20.5 57 78.1
 Matt Ellis 54 13 2 15.4 7 53.9
 Andrej Sekera 37 29 4 13.8 9 31
 Tyler Myers 64 70 8 11.4 32 45.7
 Steve Montador 60 36 3 8.3 17 47.2
 Toni Lydman 49 33 2 6.1 14 42.2
 Henrik Tallinder 64 51 3 5.9 15 29.4
 Craig Rivet 62 41 1 2.4 13 31.7
 Chris Butler 50 48 1 2.1 20 41.7
Legend: GP=Games Played, GF/OI = Goals for while a player is on the ice, G-Pct. = percentage of goals scored while on ice

 

This chart immediately makes me wonder if Patrick Kaleta could be more of an offensive force if he played on another line. He has scored 50% of the goals that have been scored while he has been on the ice, could a playmaker help him be more of an offensive player? I don't think it would work, he is getting offensive chances and scoring goals because he is playing against lesser competition from the opponent.

Kaleta is the perfect fourth line player. He plays a physical style, gets under the skin of his opponent and with nine goals he has shown he can contribute offensively. A good fourth line can be the difference between a team that is eliminated in the first round or a team that can challenge for the Stanley Cup.

Star-divide

I wasn't satisfied by looking at the goal scoring percentage because the power play can heavily influence those numbers. Just like Behind the Net did in their post, I broke down the Sabres scoring numbers while they are even strength and shorthanded.

 Player GP ES/SH GF ES/SH G G-Pct. ES/SH PTS PTS-Pct.
 Patrick Kaleta 45 18 9 50 14 77.8
 Paul Gaustad 49 17 6 35.3 11 64.7
 Mike Grier 55 27 9 33.3 18 66.7
 Thomas Vanek 59 37 11 29.7 26 70.3
 Jochen Hecht 64 44 13 29.5 30 68.2
 Derek Roy 62 38 11 28.9 31 81.6
 Adam Mair 51 14 4 28.6 10 71.4
 Jason Pominville 64 39 10 25.6 29 74.4
 Drew Stafford 59 33 8 24.2 19 57.6
 Tim Connolly 64 45 10 22.2 31 68.9
 Tim Kennedy 60 25 5 20 16 64
 Matt Ellis 54 12 2 16.7 7 58.3
 Andrej Sekera 37 26 4 15.4 8 30.7
 Tyler Myers 64 49 5 10.2 19 38.8
 Steve Montador 60 35 3 8.6 16 45.7
 Toni Lydman 49 32 2 6.3 14 43.8
 Henrik Tallinder 64 49 3 6.1 14 28.6
 Chris Butler 50 28 1 3.6 9 32.1
 Craig Rivet 62 30 1 3.3 7 23.3
Legend: GP=Games Played, ES/SH GF = Even Strength and shorthanded goals for while a player is on the ice, G-Pct. = percentage of goals scored while on ice

 

There wasn't a big change in the numbers when comparing the total and the even strength numbers. There were some subtle changes but not a glaring difference. The forwards obviously have better percentages than the defense and I don't think it is a surprise that Andrej Sekera and Tyler Myers have the best numbers on the defense.

I obviously couldn't include Raffi Torres in the charts above so I did separate charts for him.

Total Goals
 Raffi Torres GP GF/OI Goals G-Pct. PTS PTS-Pct.
 with Columbus 60 37 19 51.4 31 83.8
 Total 62 39 19 48.7 32 82.1
Even Strength/Shorthanded Goal Percentage
 Raffi Torres GP GF/OI Goals G-Pct. PTS PTS-Pct.
 with Columbus 60 24 12 50 22 91.7
 Total 62 26 12 46.2 23 88.5

 

Torres immediately becomes the best player on the team with the numbers above. He had a different atmosphere in Columbus but I expect he will contribute offensively in Buffalo as well after he gets comfortable with his new teammates.

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Good stuff Dave

Based on the info in this chart, I hope Torres stays on a line with Roy as his center – he leads our team in the percentage of total points while he’s on the ice, which indicates to me that’s he’s making things happen even when he’s not scoring goals.

Although some people think his play style fits better on the third line, neither Kennedy nor Gaustad (involved in 64% of points each as opposed to Roy’s 81%) is the kind of play maker that can get him the puck. And with this recent offensive drought I’d rather see Torres score 10 goals for us than cycle 10 pucks to Kennedy along the boards.

by Andy Boron on Mar 10, 2010 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

This chart immediately makes me wonder if Patrick Kaleta could be more of an offensive force if he played on another line.

Only if you want to diminish his effectiveness in all other areas of his game.

by twoeightnine on Mar 10, 2010 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

Kaleta

I disagree somewhat, he’s probably a very good third line player, because he’s annoying (and therefore great at playing other team’s top lines), scores goals occasionally, and actually fairly responsible defensively. (speedy and likes blocking shots)

He’s just on the fourth line (and not the PK anymore) because he keeps getting injured.

Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism

Free Tyler Ennis!

by Ubiquitous on Mar 10, 2010 2:18 PM EST reply actions  

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