Sabres Statistics Determine Studs and Duds

by David Oleksy on Feb 9, 2010 2:39 PM EST in Crunching Numbers Comment 14 comments

If you haven't noticed by now I am what you would call a stats geek. I have my opinions on the Sabres play but I try not to react until I can back up my thoughts with numbers. Many of the NHL statistics are misleading and not worth getting excited/upset about. Gabe Desjardins at Behind the Net has some valuable statistics if you sift through them and find what you need.

One of the statistics at behind the net breaks down goals for and against based on 60 minutes of play. This stat is valuable because plus/minus does not account for how much ice time certain players get. I have been looking at these numbers for a couple of days now and you are going to be surprised with some of the results.

Goal Scoring

Over the past couple of weeks we have hyped up the line with 19-29-55 and the numbers back up that claim. The Sabres are more likely to score when these three guys are on the ice. I took numbers from here and put them into another table that will be easier to use for our purposes.

This chart will show how many goals the Sabres score for every 60 minutes on and off the ice.

Player	GF On/60	GF Off/60	+/- On/Off
Tim Connolly	3.02	2.15	0.87
Jochen Hecht	2.96	2.15	0.81
Jason Pominville	2.9	2.15	0.75
Thomas Vanek	2.78	2.26	0.52
Drew Stafford	2.72	2.27	0.45
Andrej Sekera	2.71	1.72	0.99
Tyler Myers	2.68	2.22	0.46
Henrik Tallinder	2.65	2.24	0.41
Derek Roy	2.48	2.3	0.18
Nathan Paetsch	2.37	1.95	0.42
Toni Lydman	2.33	2.88	-0.55
Tim Kennedy	2.28	2.3	-0.02
Steve Montador	2.24	2.49	-0.25
Chris Butler	2.13	2.71	-0.58
Patrick Kaleta	2.13	2.38	-0.25
Mike Grier	2.05	2.79	-0.74
Clarke MacArthur	1.93	2.58	-0.65
Craig Rivet	1.75	2.57	-0.82
Paul Gaustad	1.66	2.66	-1
Adam Mair	1.63	2.48	-0.85
Matt Ellis	1.62	2.4	-0.78

The numbers I am most concerned with are the top-5 players and the bottom-5 players. There aren't too many surprises in the top-5, if you watch the Sabres on a regular basis you realize these are the Sabres top goal scorers.

When looking at the bottom five I was completely surprised to see Clarke MacArthur and Paul Gaustad to be so far down the list. Gaustad is considered more of a two-way player but gets plenty of ice time in key situations, he should not be in the same category with Mair and Ellis. Gaustad may have his numbers affected by playing some time on the fourth line with Mair and Ellis because his numbers in previous years were not this low.

Clarke MacArthur is considered an offensive player and the numbers here indicate that is not the case. MacArthur has seen his numbers steadily decline over the past three seasons despite becoming a regular in the lineup. I have defensed C-Mac in the past but this would be an opportune time for the Sabres to trade him away and get some value in return. His goal total might entice a team that is in the hunt to take a chance on him. If Kotalik can get traded...anyone can get traded.

Goals Against

If you thought the goals for total were a surprise you won't believe your eyes when you see the goals against totals. Like the numbers above they indicate the goals against/ 60 minutes both on and off the ice.

Player	GA on/60	GA Off/60	+/- On/Off
Clarke MacArthur	2.94	2.13	0.81
Chris Butler	2.87	2.23	0.64
Drew Stafford	2.63	2.1	0.53
Paul Gaustad	2.61	2.46	0.15
Andrej Sekera	2.59	2.02	0.57
Thomas Vanek	2.59	2.19	0.4
Derek Roy	2.56	2.13	0.43
Tyler Myers	2.42	2.25	0.17
Steve Montador	2.38	2.24	0.14
Mike Grier	2.34	2.37	-0.03
Tim Connolly	2.33	2.31	0.02
Jochen Hecht	2.32	2.31	0.01
Tim Kennedy	2.28	2.3	-0.02
Henrik Tallinder	2.25	2.34	-0.09
Jason Pominville	2.14	2.38	0.24
Toni Lydman	2.04	2.7	-0.66
Craig Rivet	1.99	2.54	-0.55
Adam Mair	1.95	2.7	-0.75
Patrick Kaleta	1.8	2.18	-0.38
Nathan Paetsch	1.19	2.23	-1.04
Matt Ellis	1.18	2.36	-1.18

When looking at this chart I decided to think about comments to recent posts and think about the players that are being criticized. Craig Rivet and Toni Lydman are two defensemen that Sabres fans love to criticize but the numbers show that when they are on the ice the opponent doesn't score. On the flip side when Chris Butler is on the ice the opponent has a pretty good chance to put the puck in the net.

As far as the forwards I would not expect that Matt Ellis, Patrick Kaleta and Adam Mair would be the best defensive forwards on the team whil C-Mac, Gaustad and Stafford are the worst.

Goals For and Against

This chart is a better way to judge a players plus/minus because it is based on ice time. It takes numbers from both of the charts above and gives a players plus/minus.

Player	GF on/60	GA On/60	+/- GF/GA
Nathan Paetsch	2.37	1.19	1.18
Jason Pominville	2.9	2.14	0.76
Tim Connolly	3.02	2.33	0.69
Jochen Hecht	2.96	2.32	0.64
Matt Ellis	1.62	1.18	0.44
Henrik Tallinder	2.65	2.25	0.4
Patrick Kaleta	2.13	1.8	0.33
Toni Lydman	2.33	2.04	0.29
Tyler Myers	2.68	2.42	0.26
Thomas Vanek	2.78	2.59	0.19
Andrej Sekera	2.71	2.59	0.12
Drew Stafford	2.72	2.63	0.09
Tim Kennedy	2.28	2.28	0
Derek Roy	2.48	2.56	-0.08
Steve Montador	2.24	2.38	-0.14
Craig Rivet	1.75	1.99	-0.24
Mike Grier	2.05	2.34	-0.29
Adam Mair	1.63	1.95	-0.32
Chris Butler	2.13	2.87	-0.74
Paul Gaustad	1.66	2.61	-0.95
Clarke MacArthur	1.93	2.94	-1.01

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Comments

I think this numerically proves The Kaleta’s awesomeness.

And my lord, Ellis’ GA/60 is tinnnny. Imagine if he scored even 1 or 2 more goals a year….

Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism

by Ubiquitous on Feb 9, 2010 2:59 PM EST reply actions

Paetsch's numbers really surprise me, he's done quite well in his small chances

Nice compilation of the numbers Dave.

by Rafal Ladysz on Feb 9, 2010 3:12 PM EST reply actions

I’m not a big fan of statistics – they bore me, quite frankly. I am, however, a results oriented person. I only care about winning games.

Statistics don’t win games and no matter how one compiles them, they don’t take into consideration the human element which, in my not so humble opinion, is the only element that matters. It is the collective will of the team to dominate the other team that matters most.

Statistics are one dimentional; they can’t be used to predict the success or failure of any team on any give night or the entire season, for that matter. It is the unmeasureable and unfathonable human element the determines the results of sporting events. That is why the games are played – it is the only way to prove which team is better on any given day.

When statistics are used to prognosticate, athough I am not proposing that this is the only way they should be used, they are just as often wrong in picking a winner as they are right.

With respect to the Sabres, there is only one statistics that interests me – the win/loss columns. At this time, those statistics are disheartening, because we are in the final third of the season and loss column is growing much faster that the win column.

by Geolover on Feb 9, 2010 3:38 PM EST reply actions

I couldn’t disagree more.

by KTyczka on Feb 9, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

I agree that stats should not make up the entirety of an argument, but they are absolutely useful to help us draw our own conclusions.

Very nice job Dave. As much as people have bashed certain guys this year (Hecht, Vanek) I think we need to switch to MacArthur bashing.

by Andy Boron on Feb 9, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not a big fan of statistics

I only care about winning games.

Aren’t won/loss records kind of considered statistics?

by krytime on Feb 9, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

First time posting- Not an extremely knowledgable hockey fan

But I root for the Sabres and enjoying going to a few games each year.

I also like statistics, so I really enjoyed this post.

Using the last chart, of the adjusted plus/minus metric, would it be fair to say that the guy to trade away is Roy?

I say this because it is with Roy that you could get the most value back in return (not a huge contract but reputation around league for being talented), but according to these statistics he is a negative plus/minus player, and he is the poster child for why this team is good in the regular season but an early out in the postseason (no toughness, dicipline to play within system).

Thoughts?

by StroudFanClub on Feb 9, 2010 4:14 PM EST reply actions

I'd like to see these numbers for two other teams.

Say, New Jersey (because I feel they play the closest kind of style to the Sabres) and San Jose (because they probably have the best goal scoring line in the league). Maybe even add in another team like Boston (because they have a comparable goalie but don’t win nearly as much as the Sabres).

Only then can I see what the Sabres’ numbers mean. Otherwise you’re looking at things in a vacuum.

Gaustad wins faceoffs and is supposedly a two-way player – but here his +/- is minus 0.95 and second worst… on the Sabres. A team who is still looking at home ice advantage right now. So where would this number stand on Boston?

Connolly is third with a plus 0.69. But how much of that was because of that personal (and was it a franchise?) record point streak? Where would it stand on San Jose or New Jersey – teams that look clearly better than the Sabres?

by dfderie on Feb 9, 2010 5:10 PM EST reply actions

There is no comparison with San Jose. The Sharks score way more goals than the Sabres do and their goalie might be the leader for the Vezina with the recent struggles of Ryan Miller.

As for the Devils…Elias, Zajac and Parise are all better than any of the Sabres but after that Langenbrunner is a +.79 and they go down from there. Outside of Kovalchuk who is has 2.87 GA/60 the next closest is Pandolfo with 2.66 GA/60.

The Bruins numbers are not ver good this season and most of the Sabres numbers look better. I couldn’t believe that Milan Lucic was a -1.26 that is a staggering number.

D.O.
www.diebytheblade.com - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by David Oleksy on Feb 9, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

FYI, these statistics, like +/- are meant to be viewed on a team basis. They aren’t comparable on teams that score or allow a vastly different number of goals than the sabres. However, as the devils score and allow almost the same number of goals than the sabres (Not counting kovalchuk as it is on a by-jersey basis.

These numbers are often viewed with QUALCOMP (quality of opponents) as this often explains people that have values that aren’t what you think they should be.

I could blather on about statistics all day though.

Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism

by Ubiquitous on Feb 9, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

That's my point at least

They mean nothing except for who is playing better on an individual team. Nothing more.

Look DO points out that SJ scores more goals than the Sabres. I agree. But – if the only stat that matters is W/L/OTL then you have to ask how these team numbers stack up against other teams.

I’d expect SJ to have more positive numbers. I’d expect NJ to have numbers similar. And for sure I’d expect BOS to have smaller positives than the Sabres.

Is this the case? Is Gaustad’s negative number that bad? Or Connolly’s positive one? You can’t say without a larger context.

From the sounds of it I’m alone in thinking this I guess.

by dfderie on Feb 9, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

Thx behindthenet.

NAME QUALCOMP QUALTEAM
TYLER MYERS 0.077 0.169
HENRIK TALLINDER 0.074 0.124
JOCHEN HECHT 0.047 0.120
TIM CONNOLLY 0.057 0.072
CLARKE MACARTHUR 0.014 0.056
STEVE MONTADOR -0.073 0.055
JASON POMINVILLE 0.100 0.053
ADAM MAIR -0.089 0.015
DEREK ROY 0.014 -0.016
PATRICK KALETA -0.137 -0.055
TIM KENNEDY -0.021 -0.063
ANDREJ SEKERA -0.098 -0.080
CHRISBUTLER 0.024 -0.091
MIKE GRIER -0.015 -0.093
TONI LYDMAN -0.069 -0.095
THOMAS VANEK -0.018 -0.099
DREW STAFFORD -0.016 -0.105
PAUL GAUSTAD -0.037 -0.111
MATT ELLIS -0.124 -0.125
CRAIG RIVET -0.031 -0.223

Wow… despite playing with the sixth best linemates, cmac still sucks horribly.

Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism

by Ubiquitous on Feb 11, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

Two thumbs up to D.O. for the info. Glad you finally joined the “dump C-Mac” club.

by destinsabresfan on Feb 9, 2010 5:14 PM EST reply actions

I’m not at all suprised to see Gaustad’s numbers on the GA side, considering C-mac is a typical linemate. Add to that that a number of his shifts have been 20 seconds or less (Lindy has been sending him out for PP and PK face offs and then he comes off as soon as possible). He scoring is definitely off this year, but if you have watched the games I don’t think you could fault Goose’s play defensively.

by AngolaSledgeHammer on Feb 10, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions