2009 Buffalo Sabres Fantasy Preview
Editor's Note: Wamsley, a contributor to Habs Eyes on the Prize (don't hold it against him...necessarily) as well as the editor of Fantasy Sense Hockey, has provided his fantasy preview of the 2009-2010 Buffalo Sabres.
Although the Sabres have failed to make the playoffs in two seasons, their roster is filled with fantasy stalwarts.
Miller, Vanek, Roy, Pominville and the oft-injured Connolly are top tier players. Unfortunately, NHL results are not predicated on fantasy results.
The Sabres continue to await the ascension of the next generation in Stafford, MacArthur, Sekera, Myers and Gerbe. When those players mature and the Sabres find suitable replacement for Campbell and Spacek, Sabres fans can prepare for the playoffs and the inevitable letdown.
For a breakdown on how to read the profles, click here. For a larger version of the previews, click on the individual profile.
Throughout his career, Lindy Ruff has shown an ability to adapt to the talent at his disposal. During the late 90s, Ruff and the Sabres forged an identity as a tight checking team that supported their biggest asset in Dominik Hasek. This defensive style resulted in 60 pt forwards, but a goaltender that posted Hall of Fame fantasy numbers. With the team and league in transition coming out of the lockout, Ruff switched gears and adjusted his style to fit his personnel. Fast, speedy players lead to a dynamic offensive attack in Buffalo.
The difficulty in determining where the 2010 Sabres are heading lies in their lack of identity. They have elite level goaltending in Ryan Miller and a dynamic forward attack lead by Vanek, Roy, Connolly and Pominville. With no elite level defensemen to begin the transition game, can they run and gun? Can they insulate Miller with their current defensive personnel? If Sekera or Chris Butler can surprise, or Tyler Myers can make an immediate impact, the Sabres will be dangerous and fun to watch again. If not, Sabres fans can delight in highlights of the 1975 Stanley Cup Finals and the glory of Rick Dudley's headband.
Ken Holland has a philosophy that there are 6-7 great goaltenders in the NHL. Due to the evolution of the butterfly, the rest are interchangeable with their success dependent upon their team system. I believe Ryan Miller is one of the goaltenders that will succeed regardless of his surroundings. Miller's progression arc is also why statistical analysis alone is dubious at best. In 2006 as a rookie, Miller won 30 games, had a GAA of 2.60 and a .914 SV%. Four seasons later and he finished up with 34 wins, a GAA of 2.53 and a .918 SV%. In between his statistics dipped, implying a regression in his play. But all of this was accomplished on a Sabres team that was in decline. His 2006 statistics were accomplished on a team that almost won the Stanley Cup, his 2009 stats on a team that finished 17th overall. Miller is among the 7-8 fantasy elite and should be the starter on the 2010 US Olympic team.
Thomas Vanek was on pace to challenge 50 goals and his career best 84 points before a broken jaw derailed his season. Vanek returned within a month, but the drop in weight assured that he could not sustain the same production. Before registering a 3-point game in the season finale, Vanek struggled to average half a point per game upon return. At 25 he is primed to take another run at 50 goals, a return to a point per game pace and finally earn his inflated salary. If Miller is fantasy option 1, Vanek is 1A on the Sabres.
2009 marked a slight regression in Roy's statistics. The only category in which he improved was his power play production. Over the first three quarters of 2009 Roy was on pace to match his career best, but his production dipped over the last 20 games to .59 PPG. Was his funk related to the return of the artist formerly known as Vanek? Their slumps coincide. If you look at Roy's chart his 2009 production diverges from his 2008 production on March 4th, the day of Vanek's return. My guess is a return to PPG status and a substantial +/- improvement in 2010.
Don't be fooled by the siren song of Tim Connolly and the Marian Havorik All-Stars (Martin Havlat+Marian Gaborik). The belief that if he stays healthy he could post big numbers. No chance! Two seasons ago, I made the decision that I could live with no regret when Connolly does have his healthy season (and he will have an 80 game season), because I will not have to deal with the headaches of the other 6-7 where he doesn't. I love his game, but unless he borrows Mark Kelso's gazoo helmet for the remainder of his career, I think I will pass.
Big contract, mediocre season. For Sabres fans this scenario is all too familiar as this played out two seasons ago when Tomas Vanek regressed after signing his monster offer sheet. Pominville's struggles were highlighted when from Jan 3rd to March 4th the former 34-goal scorer struggled to light the lamp registering one goal in 26 games. But a goal on March 6th ignited Rick Jeannerete and the city of Pominville as he scored 20 points over the final 18 games (5G, 15A). With his confidence restored, look for Jason Pominville to rebound strong with 70+ points in 2010.
Is this the year? Was last season's NHL ad campaign inspired by Drew Stafford. Is this the year Stafford realizes his talent? Stafford has scored at every level and the NHL should be no different. Power forwards are notoriously slow to develop and Stafford's inconsistency is frustrating for his fantasy owners and Sabre fans alike. After a brutal start, Stafford enjoyed a scorching Dec-Jan where he registered 23 points in 24 games (10G, 13A), but his play regressed when Vanek went down to injury in February (11 points in his final 28 games). If Stafford finds himself back with Roy and Vanek and top PP minutes, he will not remain under the radar for long. Stafford has strong breakout potential and will be a strong value pick late in your draft.
It is a shame that a team loaded with talented forwards lacks the elite QB to feed them the puck. Craig Rivet is not the answer, but Andrej Sekera may be. With Jaroslav Spacek in Montreal, the Sabres need somebody to fill 25 minutes a night. Sekera's offensive skill set seems like the logical choice, but the question is whether he will be able to handle the increased workload and responsibility. Sekera started 2009 strong with 8 points in 12 games, but struggled with inconsistency common in young defenders. An ankle injury in January played a factor in him fading badly down the stretch. He will get the minutes, but if he or Chris Butler does not step into the void created by Spacek's departure, the effects on the offense may be felt throughout the whole lineup.
Clarke Macarthur has been an offensive contributor at every level and playing alongside Pominville and Connolly should have the opportunity to score in the NHL. Macarthur brings a smooth game with great puck skills and is not afraid to mix it up, but he is rendered ineffective when his intensity lapses. This inconsistency landed him in Lindy Ruff's doghouse in March and until he can bring the effort that lead him to average a point per game in Rochester, he will struggle to produce in the NHL.
Normally I would have placed Nathan Gerbe in the prospects section, but the AHL rookie of the year has too much skill to leave him off this list. Although he looked overmatched last season in the NHL, Gerbe possesses the work ethic, game breaking offensive skill and the up yours attitude of a young Theo Fleury to not succeed. Gerbe put up 35 goals in his final NCAA season and 30 goals as an AHL rookie. With only Clarke Macarthur standing in the way of top 6 minutes, I like the gamble of him making a big impact in 2010. Hand him sweater 14, a tinted visor and an AA membership and we can pencil him in for 80 points per season.
Just kidding. Lalime and I go way back.
The Sabres minor league cupboard is stocked with a mixture of NHL ready players and youngsters with potential who are still in the development stage. They are not lacking in superstar potential as Tyler Myers blossomed into a franchise defenseman over the 2009 season. With developing young players a necessity in budget conscious Buffalo, the Sabres are positioned well to rejoin the leagues elite in the near future.
What once was once touted as a project pick because of fears of a lack of offensive upside in his game, Tyler Myers has matured into a potential franchise defenseman. At 6'8", the Zdeno Chara comparisons are inevitable. Chara's development was slow, and one would expect a similar learning curve for Myers. He is remarkably agile and coordinated for his size and with the Sabres searching for a PP quarterback his time in Buffalo may not be as far off as previously anticipated. His maturation will likely take place in the NHL, but it is unlikely that he will make an immediate fantasy impact. With his skill set and a future PIM monster he is a definite patient keeper league stash.
The only thing separating Jhonas Enroth from an NHL roster spot is Patrick Lalime. That is akin to Fredo blocking the path of Michael Corleone as the head of the Italian Mafia (Can you feel my love for Lalime?). Enroth avoided any transition problems as he took his success with Sodertalje and had a solid North American debut in Portland. He flashed his reputation as a player who thrives under pressure with a 2.27 GAA and a .940 SV% in a first round loss to Providence. Ultimately Enroth's biggest obstacle to fantasy success is Ryan Miller. Enroth has the potential to be a number one in the NHL as he possesses the athleticism, anticipation and work ethic to succeed; the only knock on his future potential is his small stature, NHL path and the fact that he looks like Peggy Olsen from Mad Men.
Ennis is a pure offensive talent who plays much bigger than his 5'9" frame. Ennis will benefit from the offensive depth in Buffalo and be afforded the time to adjust to the pro level. With great hockey sense, agility and explosive skating ability, Ennis' future will be determined on his tenacity and his ability to utilize his vision and skills to neutralize his size disadvantage. If he can translate his monster junior seasons to the AHL level, latch on and remain patient for his NHL opportunity.
The best offensive defenseman in the Sabres system, Gragnani's lack of defensive awareness is the only thing keeping him in the AHL. Gragnani has the attacking instinct required for an offensive defenseman and when coupled with his skating ability, intelligence and his precise transition skills he is only scratching the surface of his NHL potential. If he can shore up his defensive deficiencies, he has the potential to be a fantasy stud. If Sekera and Butler struggle, we may see Gragnani earlier than anticipated.
Coming off an impressive NCAA career, Kennedy didn't miss a beat as he made the AHL All-Rookie team. Kennedy is a slick playmaker who ran shotgun with Nathan Gerbe in Portland in 2009. His versatility may provide him with an opportunity in Buffalo, but his fantasy value is tied to the top two lines. With the depth the Sabres possess, and Roy, Vanek, Connolly and Pominville signed through 2010, Kennedy may not get a legit chance on the upper two lines in the Queen city.
This is a fanpost written by a member of the community, it doesn't necessarily express the views or opinions of Die by the Blade
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Comments
This is just tremendous.
The population of Pominville keeps rising!
by Blackcapricorn on Sep 1, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
So does anyone else want to start a Fantasy league like for this website a bunch of us could join and have fun at it during the season.
by mitch400214 on Sep 1, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We can do that, in fact I will start a Fan post to get everyone together.
Die By The Blade - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere
by Zachary Zielonka on Sep 1, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was a lot of work. Well done Wamsley
"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"
by willgarr15 on Sep 1, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It makes me sad that I’m reluctant to predict next season going as well as a Montreal writer predicts it will for these players.
Gerbe getting 31 points this year? I don’t think so.
Am I a bad fan?
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
by TEMSON on Sep 2, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't exactly predict Gerber to put up 31 pts
I don’t have a crystal ball, so I take the predictions of every major hockey magazine
(McKeens, The Hockey News, The Score, ESPN etc) and average them out.
THe Hockey News has him at 34, others have him producing less.
I placed him in the top 10 because I would rather roll the dice on him having an impact
rookie season out of nowhere than somebody like Gaustad whose top end is easily replaceable.
www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com
by Wamsley on Sep 2, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the 34 points is all dependent on what line and how much time he gets if hes in the top two lines they are expecting a break out rookie season like 20+ points if not less. Me im expecting 12-20 points depending on how much he plays
by mitch400214 on Sep 2, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep. One injury and Gerbe finds chemistry with somebody and begins
to get PP time and who knows.
Nobody predicted Vanek’s 48 pt debut in 2006, nor somebody like Kris Versteeg’s 53 points
last year in Chicago.
Gerbe has great skills and if he finds himself in the right opportunity, 31 points is not
out of the question.
www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com
by Wamsley on Sep 2, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, of course it’s not out of the question. My skepticism stems from the fact that we currently have about 412 forwards and 97 defensemen on this team vying for 12 and 6 spots respectively. I just don’t know that Gerbe will get the kind of time needed to put up 31 points – which I would expect to be well over 50 games at this point.
And my personal belief is in no way a shot at the work you’ve done here which is awesome and we thank you for.
"We want to win immediately. To say you're building is an incomplete sentence. ... You're building for a future coach and general manager."
-Marv Levy
by TEMSON on Sep 3, 2009 6:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t take it is a shot. Just engaging in discourse. I always appreciate the feedback.
Negative or positive.
www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com
by Wamsley on Sep 3, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I switch the Kelso reference to David Wright?

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com
by Wamsley on Sep 3, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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